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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

5 suspected cases in Nigeria
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Albert View Drop Down
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Points: 47746 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: 5 suspected cases in Nigeria
    Posted: August 21 2014 at 7:28am
A couple days ago Nigeria was going to try the Guinea-strategy of not reporting cases and downplaying the outbreak, which of course didn't work out for Guinea as evident by the their surge and backlog of cases now reported.   Nigeria is looking at a 25% increase. 

Bloomberg News

Nigeria Assesses Ebola Cases After Officials Saw Progress


Doctors in Nigeria’s most populous city are assessing five new suspected cases of the Ebola virus, a top medical official said, two days after the health minister expressed confidence the outbreak in the country may soon end.

The new patients were admitted to a hospital in Lagos on Aug. 19 and are being monitored in isolation wards, the state’s Commissioner for Health, Jide Idris, told reporters yesterday. Nigerian Health Minister Onyebuchi Chukwu said Aug. 19 that Africa’s biggest economy may be Ebola-free within a week as the number of people being treated for the virus had dropped to two.

“They are not exposed to the public and the public is in no danger from the two,” Chukwu said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Trish Regan and Shannon Pettypiece.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-20/nigeria-may-be-ebola-free-in-a-week-as-cases-fall-minister-says
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atheris View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote atheris Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 7:59am
it would be healthy to realise.....

ebola in small village = lots of death in a small area, and thats it
ebola in a crowded area = humanity is f.... 

thats a simple equation
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Points: 47746 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 8:06am
That's probably fairly accurate.   As long as these African nations like Guinea and Nigeria accurately report, at least there will be no surprises.   I still think Guinea resembles Liberia and Sierra Leone and they will be reporting 75 - 100 cases each cycle from here on out, which will still be a gross understatement - or 'vastly' understating.
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atheris View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote atheris Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 8:18am
as in such a case we are talking about exponential regression processes.. stating each day lets say 50 or 100 cases constantly is we far from the actual process happening... (or at least it will look we differently in a couple of weeks...)
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Suzi View Drop Down
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Points: 2769 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Suzi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 5:47pm
Did these new cases catch it from Sawyer?
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onefluover View Drop Down
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Points: 20151 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 8:19pm
I read somewhere but can't remember now, may of been on here, that they are all connected to some of those he infected. So in that sence, yes. Sawyer-Chain. This is to be expected because there can be no mistaking this, he provided the fomes capable of infecting literally thousands of people directly, never mind the third link. A dozen or so were unfortunate enough to have had contact but many many more could have. I just don't see how it's possible to contain such a situation as his after the fact. And the same is true with many in the next link as Nigeria's Ebola fabric is now being woven. I will say again that we have and are now witnessing the effects of the worlds first and only true viable biological terrorist act that may well lend to a true doomsday situation before our eyes as we sit and discuss this.
"And then there were none."
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onefluover View Drop Down
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Points: 20151 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 8:21pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

That's probably fairly accurate.   As long as these African nations like Guinea and Nigeria accurately report, at least there will be no surprises.   I still think Guinea resembles Liberia and Sierra Leone and they will be reporting 75 - 100 cases each cycle from here on out, which will still be a gross understatement - or 'vastly' understating.


Misunderestimastated?
"And then there were none."
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