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550,000 cases by January of Ebola

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waterboy View Drop Down
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    Posted: September 19 2014 at 1:13pm

Ebola Worst-Case Scenario Has More Than 500,000 Cases

Sep 19, 2014 11:47 AM PT
Photographer: Cellou Binani/AFP via Getty Images

Guinea's Red Cross health workers wearing protective suits carry a stretcher at the NGO Medecin sans frontieres Ebola treatement centre near the hospital Donka in Conakry on Sept. 14, 2014. Close

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Photographer: Cellou Binani/AFP via Getty Images

Guinea's Red Cross health workers wearing protective suits carry a stretcher at the NGO Medecin sans frontieres Ebola treatement centre near the hospital Donka in Conakry on Sept. 14, 2014.

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa could spread to hundreds of thousands more people by the end of January, according to an estimate under development by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that puts one worst-case scenario at 550,000 or more infections.

The report, scheduled to be released next week, was described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public.

The projection, which vastly outstrips previous estimates, is under review by researchers and may change. It assumes no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies, which are mobilizing to contain the Ebola outbreak before it spirals further out of control in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

“CDC is working on a dynamic modeling tool that allows for recalculations of projected Ebola cases over time,” Barbara Reynolds, a spokeswoman for the agency, said in an e-mail. “CDC expects to release this interactive tool and a description of its use soon.”

The World Health Organization said last month that the outbreak could reach 20,000 cases before being brought under control. That projection is already outdated, WHO spokesman Dan Epstein said today in a phone interview.

Steep Curve

“In the three weeks since then the numbers have doubled, so all three countries are still reporting cases on a steep upward curve,” Epstein said. “We don’t have a good idea of how big this epidemic will become.”

If the response is not increased, there may be as many as 5,000 new cases a week, he said.

The WHO’s estimates are meant to help assess international relief needs, such as how many hospital beds to build and the amount of medical supplies needed. The U.S. is currently adding personnel and money to the effort.

“It’s already the worst outbreak in history,” Tim Shenk, a spokesman for the humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders, said in a phone interview. He said the actions of the U.S. government will determine whether the growing epidemic can be contained.

“What we’ve been clear about is that we are doing everything we can do and it’s not nearly enough,” Shenk said.

Since the start of the outbreak this year, the virus has infected 5,357 people, killing 2,630, according to a Sept. 18 WHO report. The disease has spread through five West African countries, accelerating in cities, including Monrovia, the capital of Liberia.

Emergency UN Mission

The United Nations yesterday announced the creation of a special emergency mission to respond to the crisis, saying the effort needs to increase greatly.

“This is a disease outbreak that is advancing in an exponential fashion,” said David Nabarro, named special envoy to West Africa yesterday by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon. “I estimate that to get ahead of outbreak, the level of response needs to be about 20 times greater than it is at the moment.”

The U.S. is intensifying its effort, planning to deploy about 3,000 U.S. military personnel to the region to assist with shipping and distributing medical supplies and building treatment centers.

Military Arrives

Major General Darryl Williams, U.S. Army-Africa commander, arrived in Monrovia on Sept. 17 with a 12-person team to assess the situation there, Rear Admiral John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, said today at a press conference. That includes deciding where to build treatment sites and what else will be needed from the U.S. military.

One C-17 transport plane has already arrived, and two more are scheduled for next week, bringing 45 personnel and helping to set up a command headquarters, Kirby said.

Asked about the CDC projection, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said the U.S. commitment of $1 billion for the response to Ebola will have the effect of spurring other nations to increase their assistance.

“The projections you’re citing are long-term projections,” Earnest said. “That’s why the president was demonstrating a sense of urgency” when he spoke about the outbreak earlier this week.

Unseen Scale

Predictive models have varied as researchers struggle to estimate an outbreak on a size and scale never seen before with Ebola.

A separate worst-case scenario modeled last month by researchers at the University of Tokyo and Arizona State University predicted there would be as many as 277,124 new cases by the year’s end.

That was the high end of their estimate, though the researchers warned that “uncontrolled cross-border transmission could fuel a major epidemic to take off in new geographical areas.”

Columbia University researchers predicted 18,755 cases by Oct. 26 if the situation didn’t change, and 49,129 if intervention and containment efforts degraded.

“Our understanding of Ebola transmission dynamics is incomplete and data on the present outbreak are limited,” the researchers said.

Curbing the outbreak will require investments of $988 million over the next six months, according to an overview of needs and requirements published by the UN. About 30 percent of what’s needed has come in so far, Nabarro said earlier this week at a briefing in Geneva.

There is no cure for Ebola, which is spread by contact with the blood and bodily fluids of those infected. The disease normally is treated by keeping patients hydrated, replacing lost blood and using antibiotics to fight infections. The hope is that a patient’s immune system will fight off the aggressive attack of the virus.

Several companies and government health authorities are testing experimental treatments and vaccines against the disease.

To contact the reporters on this story: Caroline Chen in New York at cchen509@bloomberg.net; Brendan Greeley in Washington at bgreeley2@bloomberg.net; Kelly Gilblom in New York at kgilblom@bloomberg.net

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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2014 at 3:58pm
They just started doing home to home checks for bodies and cases in Sierra Leone.  Sending over 5000 body bags and military makes sense.  We're about to find out how bad it is.  They're probably going to find that it needs to burn itself out by killing off each human host.  The only move is to seal off W. Africa - from everything and in every way. 
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2014 at 4:56pm
Albert,I agree 100%.Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2014 at 5:06pm
This is certainly been more serious than we have been led to believe. In fact i am beginning to truly believe we are looking at something uncontrollable.

The projections are still climbing, and the language being used is in fact alarmist, all by the people and entity's who are in the know. Now, i have watched news, read, and remained informed about international news/events for over 30 years, seen many global calamity's and watched closely as alarms were sounded from Chernobyl to Avian influenza, in every case spanning the years in between the latter events the situation/ impending disaster always subsided, and that fact alone is a good reason for a slow and steady analytical approach to digesting the events as they unfold.

In other words 99.999% of the time one has nothing to worry about no matter what you read or hear about impending doom on a global scale.

This I feel Is different, just by the tone, statistics, and alarm bells ringing, from the CDC, WHO, scientists, computer models, people on the ground, doctors, nurses etc:

The fact that we went from 5k too 20k to 277k to 550k modeled projected cases in the matter of a few weeks, (the models projections are only 14 weeks into the future) Government responses have been exponential, rhetoric has been exponential, resource demands have grown exponentially, speaks volumes.

I am betting the "computer simulation" they referred too in this article was shown to the president when he visited the CDC a couple days ago.

Also the issue in the article referring to the "transmission mode" being reassessed or something (I do not have the quote handy) coupled with data, and numerous references to no explanation as to why this is spreading so fast is very very disconcerting, tribal customs, backwards society, poor people, poor medical care may exacerbate spread, but no scientist, doctor or epidemiologist can or has explained the sustained transmission. Ritual practices does not cut it.

When we can, and have mapped the virus within days (never before done before) and released the sequences for every scientist in the world to view and help with....but at the same time continue to say "we have not been able to check new samples taken from people currently" to compare against old sample for changes...that is total BS.

The people and entity's disseminating information, ringing the alarm bells know this is as about as bad as it gets.

My perspective is simple, I am just analyzing the information being put forth and putting it to the logic test. I am also putting significant weight weight on the fact that the response efforts are trying to just "bend the curve" to see IF we can bend it....In other words slow it down. If they cant slow the curve very fast, we are in trouble. They are admitting it, even Obama eluded to it.

Albert mentioned a "slow burn", I think we are in a frog in the boiling water scenario....time will tell.

Ok, I am getting off the soap box, and getting ready to put my tin foil hat on.   
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2014 at 5:54pm
Nigeria will be reporting a cluster soon in a few days.  Now, if it was China they could probably cover it up, but Nigeria is far from that.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote krystar1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2014 at 6:11pm


Exponential Growth Calculator



Fill in any three to calculate the fourth value:

Initial amount (P0):   
Growth rate (r):   
Time (t):   
Final amount (P(t)):   





Result

Initial amount (P0) 20000
Growth rate (r) 1 = 100.0%
Time (t) 4
Final amount (P(t)) 1091963.00066

At the rate of doubling every 3weeks as published recently...there will be 1.09Million Cases in 12weeks (4 x 3)...


We know that WHO is underreporting cases by 2-4times...as there is no good way to get info from the slums...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2014 at 7:31pm
"...the odds of the infection coming to America is around 18% by year-end." Cases are doubling every 3 weeks.



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-19/exponential-ebola-cases-now-double-every-3-weeks-cdc-warns-over-half-million-may-be-
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2014 at 8:34pm
Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

This is certainly been more serious than we have been led to believe. In fact i am beginning to truly believe we are looking at something uncontrollable.

The projections are still climbing, and the language being used is in fact alarmist, all by the people and entity's who are in the know. Now, i have watched news, read, and remained informed about international news/events for over 30 years, seen many global calamity's and watched closely as alarms were sounded from Chernobyl to Avian influenza, in every case spanning the years in between the latter events the situation/ impending disaster always subsided, and that fact alone is a good reason for a slow and steady analytical approach to digesting the events as they unfold.

In other words 99.999% of the time one has nothing to worry about no matter what you read or hear about impending doom on a global scale.

This I feel Is different, just by the tone, statistics, and alarm bells ringing, from the CDC, WHO, scientists, computer models, people on the ground, doctors, nurses etc:

The fact that we went from 5k too 20k to 277k to 550k modeled projected cases in the matter of a few weeks, (the models projections are only 14 weeks into the future) Government responses have been exponential, rhetoric has been exponential, resource demands have grown exponentially, speaks volumes.

I am betting the "computer simulation" they referred too in this article was shown to the president when he visited the CDC a couple days ago.

Also the issue in the article referring to the "transmission mode" being reassessed or something (I do not have the quote handy) coupled with data, and numerous references to no explanation as to why this is spreading so fast is very very disconcerting, tribal customs, backwards society, poor people, poor medical care may exacerbate spread, but no scientist, doctor or epidemiologist can or has explained the sustained transmission. Ritual practices does not cut it.

When we can, and have mapped the virus within days (never before done before) and released the sequences for every scientist in the world to view and help with....but at the same time continue to say "we have not been able to check new samples taken from people currently" to compare against old sample for changes...that is total BS.

The people and entity's disseminating information, ringing the alarm bells know this is as about as bad as it gets.

My perspective is simple, I am just analyzing the information being put forth and putting it to the logic test. I am also putting significant weight weight on the fact that the response efforts are trying to just "bend the curve" to see IF we can bend it....In other words slow it down. If they cant slow the curve very fast, we are in trouble. They are admitting it, even Obama eluded to it.

Albert mentioned a "slow burn", I think we are in a frog in the boiling water scenario....time will tell.

Ok, I am getting off the soap box, and getting ready to put my tin foil hat on.   


Home run with bases loaded! Not to make humor of such a genuinely dire situation though. I have read and watched almost nothing but news, -national/international, almost constantly for 35 years straight. I used to say that I built my multimillion dollar tattoo empire just so that I could afford to watch cable news unfettered in luxury. So I empathize with you on that and I've seen what you saw and learned from what you learned from and I've come to the same conclusions. They know.

Great post Pheasant!
"And then there were none."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2014 at 8:49pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Nigeria will be reporting a cluster soon in a few days.  Now, if it was China they could probably cover it up, but Nigeria is far from that.  


I agree. But even China wouldn't be able to cover it up for very long. TTV KiltZ'd somehow find it hiding in a bubble. Even if the sowyer chain were broke which I do in no way believe it is, theres many more sowyers that will soon be making their way to Nigeria. Right now there's been between .0001 to .0004% of the 20 million pop of the effected region infected. Within two or three months that well could go up to 10%. It will be entering Nigeria in droves by then.
"And then there were none."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Germ Nerdier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2014 at 10:49am
This was the thread that scared the crap out of me yesterday.
I'm afraid you guys are right, but praying you are wrong.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2014 at 5:46pm
I hope it was the news that scared you, and not the comments. I do not think anyone here who has a post record is trying to scare anyone...just vet, analyze, and discuss the information before us.

Humanity has been around for a long long time, sometimes with setbacks but mostly with advances, this is how we as humans prosper.

I think what helps with worry and alleviating the uneasy feelings associated with being "scared" is being prepared to the best of our ability, within reason.

I live in Florida, years ago when the hurricanes came through we lost power for ten days,I watched store shelves go empty ( me and the wife actually went to walmart and HD just to watch the people), ice being handed out...It was a surreal feeling. I am sure folks who went through Hurricane Katrina feel the same and saw worse.

Some things we cant do anything about, comets, asteroids, volcanoes, earthquakes,viruses, mother in laws, etc: ....... but we can take precautions to feed, cloth, and protect ourselves and our family when things get bumpy.

We may or may not be in for a bumpy ride, this could be a blip on the screen or a brick wall. I for one, cannot foretell the future, but, I can take precautions.

Simply knowing i can feed my family for a time, take care of there basic needs, and stop an intruder (or two)makes a huge difference in my outlook.
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2014 at 8:45pm
Thank you pheasant for answering this for me for GNR. Not that you did it for me but anyways, I was about to get to it -been caught up in a situation- but since you did such a fine job...
"And then there were none."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2014 at 9:21pm
I'm sorry I have helped to scare you, Germ Nerd. My analysis and projections tend to be on the far side of reasonable because my experiences in life have taught me that most rough situations end up being rougher than most would be prepared for. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst is just a matter of course. I really hate when people tell me that everything is going to be just fine when I can clearly see its already broken and I've already moved on to fixing it while they are distracting me from the reality of making it fine again which it really won't if I listen to them. To capture all of the spilled marbles you must reach out extra far and wide I suppose. Instinctive of survivalists. But beneath the surface I am more logically hopeful than it may appear and more so than most.
"And then there were none."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Germ Nerdier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2014 at 6:30am
There is a German expression, loosely translated: Nothing is ever eaten as hot as it is served.

I take it to mean that fear of something is always worse than the something itself.

I'm not afraid of asteroids, hurricanes, earthquakes, pandemics etc. Rather, I find the science of them fascinating.

Part of the reason this thread bothered me, is because it is eerily similar to a an Ebola discussion I had with a professor many years ago. But then it was a 'what if' and a 'not in my lifetime'. 
.............................................................................................

Before seeing the thread, I was complacent with the German expression in mind.
(It's funny how the human mind can sort through the information around us, and discard certain details in an effort of self-preservation.)

However, the current situation as is discussed here served to bring everything into focus and make it more difficult to ignore.
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Herzlich Wilkommen Germ Nerdier

lets hope for the best, although personally i bet it will pop up also in the european and american lands...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Germ Nerdier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2014 at 10:13am
Danke schoen ahteris!
Fair warning: my written German is worse than my spoken.
I'm a Canadian whos first husband was German, and I haven't been to Berlin since the '90s.
My German is very rusty :(
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote newbie1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2014 at 6:46am
Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:


Some things we cant do anything about, comets, asteroids, volcanoes, earthquakes,viruses, mother in laws, etc: .......


Bwahahahaha - your mother in law and mine must be related! Whole post is bang on (jmo)
Cherish each moment
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Germ Nerdier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2014 at 9:28am
I did something about my first mother-in-law. I divorced her son Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2014 at 9:31am
Clap
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote debg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2014 at 9:59am
Originally posted by Germ Nerdier Germ Nerdier wrote:

I did something about my first mother-in-law. I divorced her son Wink

LOL
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