Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
A Corona virus will not be the big one! |
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Posted: January 28 2020 at 10:04pm |
I don't believe a Corona virus will ever be the big one! Like Sars and Mers the answer is isolation and infection control! All known Corona Viruses are too long and heavy (approximately 26 to 32 kilobases, extraordinarily large for an RNA virus) to aerosolize! Like Mers they are mostly left and picked up from solid surfaces like door knobs and transferred to mucus membranes not inhaled! Use sanitary wipes on surfaces that multiple people touch and wash your hands, wash your hands!
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Buy more ammo!
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Damn....
And there's me getting all excited....lol |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Carbon - I've enjoyed the last few weeks here reading and talking about something other than Politics but facts are facts! China has done it again and though it will probably be worse than Sars I don't see this as a 1918 event much less a slate wiper! It's going to happen sooner or later, I just don't think this is it! Corona viruses by nature are lazy! I'm still focused on influenza or some completely new virus we've never even dreamed of!
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Buy more ammo!
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Carbon _ P.S.- How are things in Western Australia? I see your country on the news almost nightly but I'm fairly ignorant about it's geography! Are you threatened by the bush fires? Are you safe or are are you at the edge like so many in the USA?
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Buy more ammo!
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I hope you are right this is not the big one.
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Weather here been great 35c
cool sea breeze in the arvo There's always a threat of Bush fires, but its a bit different this western side of Australia, We live in a desert,or in the edge of one, The size of Australia is massive, Western Australia had only about 2.5 million people,in a space that fits Japan UK,and Texas.... Very very lucky to live here..... Crime low,very laid back life style we are 4 hours flight time from the Eastren states 3/4 days drive across the Nullarbor Plain https://g.co/kgs/pQzrBC Fantastic Drive i drove ,and took the train. |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I can't think of a better choice for a slate-wiper than a coronavirus.
Droplet infection/airborne, Rapid re-assortment of sugars/proteins on the surface for immune system evasion, Looks like its cousin - the common cold - hard to spot clinically, Can be very deadly - like Sars, 'And the clincher: Coronaviruses infect several species we enjoy close proximity with. Having another species resevoir for an infectious agent is a vital part of a wiper. Otherwise infections burn themselves out before the slate is clean. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Still got the British sense of humor , I see |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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I suppose as the older I got the less I have been worried about flu etc being a slate wiper. Most people will survive.
But what I do worry about is the knock on effect of key workers getting ill, eg if food stops arriving at the local stores, or if a city water supply is cut or contaminated and they can't repair it quickly. To my mind me this 'secondary effect' could be as serious (or more so) than the actual illness. This Wuhan virus looks like it could well be disruptive enough to cause major secondary problems. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Exactly!
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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quietprepr
V.I.P. Member Joined: May 21 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2495 |
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Interesting thread, I too am far more worried about secondary effects. In public utilities, we are already facing serious issues with staffing, we are seeing large waves of retirements and a rapidly aging workforce with very few younger people interested in the work. It is hard for us (even during normal times) to staff our water plants and keep our systems running. We often have to staff our facilities with workers on overtime due to staffing shortages. If we lose a significant number of our workers through illness or fear, we will see problems develop quickly.
Also, the chemicals and equipment we use daily are all delivered by truck and not stored in large quantities making supply chain disruptions a real threat. I hope it is contained and burns out...but we are trying to plan for the worst. QP |
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"Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival." - W. Edwards Deming
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Yep. People fear the virus when they should be concerned with the way it will impact modern day society. The real danger is absenteeism due to illness, death or social distancing.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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A concern is that it cannot be stopped and it is here to stay forever. Possibly a new way of life. Albeit slow moving like a tank, but possibly here to stay forever. Each year the same old fatality rate of 2.9%. Like an ongoing pandemic for years to come. Once entrenched globally 50m - 100m die each year? A way of life will be social distancing? This could be worse than a garden variety flu pandemic. Whatever is happening in the next 60 - 90 days from now, well, that could be the new norm.
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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We have 4 different variants.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov?fbclid=IwAR3Czxbl-fmcobYVxNSgAqHvtJc5DUtYDpJ5PiJvZ_3SzyvQZGlGzd4EoXU |
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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I honestly don't care about a
"slate wiper" I believe that there's too many Humans on this planet and we need to be "Culled" About 75% of us need to be GONE.... A global pandemic is the fairest and best way, We Humans are killing the planet.... Only fair that the planet bites back..... Ying/Yang..... If I die from it well and good, but I'm not going to die because I didn't have enough food..... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
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Carbon20 I agree. But I am going to be at ground 0 and I am going to SIP for 2 weeks till I know the family is clear.
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Absolutely, Flumom.....
I'll do anything to protect my Family.... I want to be a survivor.... That was a Great Show Survivors https://g.co/kgs/K1JC7g I wonder if this show had a good /bad influence on me.... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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carbon20 I watch all the survivor shows and sci fi also to learn any and all survival techniques. Sorry but movies and TV has some good stuff on it.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Loved Survivors. I think I was 11 or 12 when it aired. I remember putting together a list of preps after the first episode
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Someone in the FB group posted a lineage tree that showed 33 variants now. I’ll try to find it. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Saw that too but you can't copy and paste anything from FB.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Moved the thread to General Discussion.
33 different variants? Exactly how do we now stop this new killer cold again? Good grief. |
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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This whole thing is starting to make me wish we had an avian flu pandemic at this point. o_0
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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So... it likes to mutate, huh? Awesome.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Careful what you wish for, A. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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hoosiermom22
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 21 2020 Location: Indiana Status: Offline Points: 1225 |
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I just LOL’d. Literally. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Me too.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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I concur. A re-assorted orthomyxovirus (flu) is the "big one" we should fear, but there are other actors out there that may yet rise up. (a) bioweapons and lab-created viruses - let's not forget that some scientists like Dr. Kawaoka (Univ of WI) are still pursuing gain-of-function work with H5N1, H7N9 and other variants, and their labs are not exactly the best in the world. North Korea and other actors are also playing around with bioweapons. (b) Ebola and other African hemorrhagic fevers - Uh, we still have a major Ebola outbreak going on in Africa: From 22 to 28 January five new confirmed cases were reported in the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. All five cases were reported from Beni Health Zone and had epidemiological links to the transmission chain which originated in Aloya Health Area, Mabalako Health Zone. The most likely exposure for all these cases was through nosocomial infection in traditional practitioner facilities. All of the cases were identified as contacts but were not followed up at the time of detection. https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/ebola-virus-disease-democratic-republic-congo-disease-outbreak-87 (c) emergent pox virus - we have a very low pox virus immunity now (as a global population), and the emergence of a new pox, evolved from monkey pox, could be devastating. Believe me....in epidemiology, it is always the bug that you don't expect, or didn't see coming, that is the one to worry about. This new corona virus was completely avoidable, and it will primarily impact mainland China. Hang tight, I'm in touch with the top level folks on this one and will let you know of stuff as it happens. Cover your sneezes, WASH YOUR HANDS, and be healthy and safe!! Best, CRS, DrPH |
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CRS, DrPH
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Chuck - What do you know about "Event 201" and how does it compare with today's situation? I've read a little about 201 and know it was a simulated coronavirus and it predicted an eventual 80-90 % infection rate! What's your impression?
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Buy more ammo!
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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From the website for Event 201: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/newsroom/center-news/2020-01-24-Statement-of-Clarification-Event201.html Statement about nCoV and our pandemic exercise In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Recently, the Center for Health Security has received questions about whether that pandemic exercise predicted the current novel coronavirus outbreak in China. To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people. Although our tabletop exercise included a mock novel coronavirus, the inputs we used for modeling the potential impact of that fictional virus are not similar to nCoV-2019. (Chuck here) I've participated in some large bioterrorism drills, and know some of the folks who design and plan them. There are always a lot of assumptions to be made, including natural vs. terrorist/weaponized agents, natural history considerations etc. Some of the infectious agents I've read about include Nipah virus (nasty bit that one is!), hemorrhagic fever (Ebola etc.), smallpox and the like. Corona viruses were pretty much off the screen until SARS in 2003, when we received a big wake-up call. In all honesty, coronavirus doesn't "excite" me as an end-time pathogen...they don't tend to have very high case fatality rates, they can be controlled by careful case management & fairly simple hygiene (wash your hands!), and we live with coronas every day. I'm watching this closely, what makes this outbreak worse than it could be is the stupidity of the Chinese Communist Party and their obsession with secrecy. People a lot smarter than I am believe that the big pandemic event will come from China and will involve a reasserted swine flu. It makes a lot of sense to me. |
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CRS, DrPH
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Thanks Chuck! -I agree as far as the western world is concerned! My wife is an infection control RN so I wash my hands more than anyone I know, but here we have clean water and soap 99% of the time! Unless this burns itself out, which most Corona virus' do, it will be disastrous in third world countries! God help the refugee camps!
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