Any predictions on the next numbers?

Anyone care to give a guess on the next numbers?   I'm going with 2299 / 1226

Where you at cobber?  

Yes morbid little topic, I suppose it comes with the territory. 


- with Guinea not reporting of course

Prediction just as the numbers being reported.   Liberia and Sierra Leone are probably doing their best in reporting, but still probably only at about half of the reality.  And of course Guinea stopped reporting altogether.   Actual total cases are probably closer to 4,000 - 5,000.   Keep in mind.  Guinea is larger than Sierra Leone and Liberia combined, and Guinea is reporting nearly half the cases what they're reporting.  You can easily assume 1200 - 1500 cases in Guinea.

If there is linear progression (at around 75 cases per day from the latest WHO report) and the CFR stays at around 55% then the figures are around 2355 cases and 1295 deaths.

With Ebola spreading there should be more cases, so I would guess around 2 400 cases and 1 320 deaths.

Yep i'm sick and jaded...

2308...1230 then on the 17th.

11% increase....2360

then this story came out

Armed men attacked an Ebola isolation ward in the Liberian capital Monrovia overnight, prompting 29 patients to flee the facility, witnesses said Sunday (Aug 17).

    PHOTOS

File photo: A staff member disinfects the premises outside a hospital in Liberia. (AFP/Zoom Dosso)

    Enlarge
    Caption

MONROVIA: Armed men attacked an Ebola isolation ward in the Liberian capital Monrovia overnight, prompting 29 patients to flee the facility, witnesses said Sunday (Aug 17).

"They broke down the doors and looted the place. The patients all fled," said Rebecca Wesseh, who witnessed the attack and whose report was confirmed by residents and the head of Health Workers Association of Liberian, George Williams.

- AFP/xq

2360 +29

Are you second guessing yourself Albert?

Well, my ante anyways is stashed under my coffee table in a box. The Beatles addition of Monopoly. I too expect that the WHO is soon going to come out with two sets of numbers. Or they will slowly feed estimated numbers into the verified totals. Which would really skew things as far as rythmatic predictions go. Unlike America and other developed countries, its impossible to keep a very accurate account over there anyway. Even the population estimate of 1.1 billion may be way off the mark.

TOO MANY!!!

I think that makes me an automatic winner!

2740. 1300

Is that like a big grain silo? Oh. Never mind.

Albert wrote: Get ready for a spike in cases from Guinea.  They must be overwhelmed and at their breaking point.

And where are those who are fleeing Guinea and it's ebola outbreak going hmm? This directly relates to the whether or not Ebola is contagious during the incubation period. If it's contagious during the incubation period there is not a chance in hell they will be able to contain it and keep it from spreading during the potentially long incubation period.

Albert wrote: The other problem is that they drop like flies and they can't go near the dead bodies.   How long it survives in a dead human host is another question.   Maybe they can approach the body after 1 week, or maybe it survives indefinitely in a dead host.  Now that would be unique bordering on a zombie pandemic.   Let the dead rot - and run fast.

Well the thing is this strain of ebola is not "burning out" due to a long incubation period and a lower CFR than previous ebola outbreaks. This one is different and looks to have staying power as it overwhelms nation after nation in Africa. In the next week to two weeks we will see the direction this outbreak is going to go and IF it remains primarily on the African continent.

jacksdad wrote: You might not want to celebrate yet. The prize is a timeshare in an exotic location. He won't say where, but Albert picked it up real cheap...

BWAHAHAHAHAHA
"That" destination may make me feel    I think I'll pass and stay home and hug a turkey!

Thanks Jacksdad - I needed a good laff this am

Albert,excellent advice.Johnray1

You were pretty close too oneflu -  Looks like I better start packing for my one week stay at the time share -  in Sierra Leone.  

I wish you a Good Afternoon Oneflu!  Though it is a horid one here: rain and wind (I just lost my gazebo).  The only good part is no ebola here, yet.

I don't have any news, just wanted to wish you good Afternoon.

I'm going to go out on a limb here in guessing the next numbers:  2405 / 1322

I'm assuming Guinea is going to report around 50 + cases

Winner gets an all expense paid African safari trip in Guinea.  

oK - one more time.  Apparently we may want to get them in early:   2752 / 1573

well done

Just remaking my PC so i cant get to the Excel file.  Huge rebuild...

Yeah, thanks Cobber! Your graphs are interesting to look at and study and play with the curves and compare to simple doublings in a given time etc. my estimates base it more on 25 day cycles with a slight increase each cycle. You're at 4.1 billion 18 months from now. A two year pandemic. I'm at 7.0 billion. Technically identical. Now we all know that the breaks will be put on these figures to some large degree as it leaves Africa but assuming we are unable to slow it down, (and places like Ferguson MO make me wonder just how well we could control it here) and you take, say, Spanish Flu to compare it to, with 5% CFR over two years, and Ebola say an 80% CFR, off the top you'd think well Ebola is 20 times more destructive than a typical flu pandemic but with a little more complicated thought you're like, nope. It's a trillion times more destructive! A 5% loss of the population is hardly noticed. An 80% loss would send us damn near back to the Stone Age. Even the bible would have to be rewritten.