This is going too fast and it is not good.
The ministry of health has announced that 25 years old Hadia Salah Ragab from Al-Marg "Cairo" has been infected by H5N1. She has become no.65 in the Human infection roll in Egypt. Hadia entered the hospital on the 11th of April and she was given Tamflu still her condition up till now is critical according to news report.
The domestic poultry again is to be blamed.
This is not good at all, the human infection rate is accelerating fearfully and it seems that the virus is moving towards Cairo very fast, already the last case confirmed was on the 15th of [/QUOTE]

Good find. You realize of course we are getting adult infections after a bunch of low path kids and some birds. Also, not a word on our at deaths door lady a few days ago. These still aren't many cases. A year or so ago, we had a "blog soap opera" with half of the population of Egypt being listed as Avian positives. Considering Bird Flu is endogenous in Egypt- this is no news flash that people are getting it.

As far as spreading - would be nice to know what Clade this is- what sequence- and it is even so thoughtful for them to give Tamiflu so we can make sure we develop a nice resistant strain in Egypt as we have to other flus in the U.S. with the use of this drug. It also ruins the titers for testings as well as never was meant to treat Bird Flu and has never been that effective according to many many studies.

Yet, good story. Now we need a cluster- and we will really have something.

John A. - Medclinician

Albert wrote:   This is basically my whole point, without sequences and data, how can we assume "anything".  We have no info, yet we assume there is a new mild strain spreading human to human.  I'm the type of person who needs facts, and I can't rely on pure speculation.    In fact, in my view, we have to exclude "all" wild speculation.  Apparently people are now spreading on various flu websites about a new mild strain spreading, and that is only infecting kids, but we have no proof on any of this.     When it comes to Panflu education, I think all of us have a responsiibility to control crazy rumors from spreading.    All of this started from niman.   Since then, we have a few more patients who are now in critical condition, and they are not only children, therefore we can  exclude the other crazy claims.   We now know that the strain is still lethal, and it's infecting all ages.   If niman was wrong in those areas, I would say it's safe to assume he's also wrong about a new mild strain spreading in humans.         I seem to be the only one who fights niman on these things.  If we weren't here, maybe we would all be his pawns, eh?   How many false outbreaks allegedly involving hundreds of people have we defused over the years because of him???   He's almost a full time job for us at this point.    With all of the misinformation that this guy spreads, well, what will happen during a panflu when he continues to do this, and people believe his every word?

Your not the only one Albert. I speak to Dr. Niman in real life and ask questions and discuss theories. IMHO Henry (Dr. Niman) has a valid point in terms of recombination versus re assortment, which according to many papers and Dr. Webster is one of the fathers at St. Judes that determines our yearly vaccine. And our batting average for a decent vaccine is bad. 5 out of 7 times we have missed.

We have evidence of swapping sequences and exact tracing of where EACH pair came from on flow charts I have been sent from Dr. Niman. He did work with antibodies, he did some good work in the 80s, and yet, that does not mean 1,000 Egyptian names listed as "Avian possible " mean one ounce more than that.

The classic horn to horn on this on the net was a year or so ago, when I documented something like 4 out of 5 cases (confirmed cases) in Egypt when people on other locations were listing hundreds. WHO, CDC, and everyone official gave me data on this- and by the third month I was posting  - it was 5 cases people, not 500.

In the end,  we were back to less than a dozen confirmed Avian Flu cases. The hundreds listed by name and Blueberry phone number did not have Avian Flu.

Some of us are more involved in the Avian scene than we used to be. For some of us it has become a large portion of our lives.

If you read enough medical publishing and frequent CIDRAP, CDC, and DHS enough, you will find a lot of answers.

If you track the two basic Navy labs which monitor flu activity in Indonesia, Egypt, and the Middle East, you will find answers.

WHO may be annoying at times in losing hundreds of specimens and letting others decay so they worthless for analysis. However, let it be said for WHO I have tracked when they send the choppers in to Nepal and MANY other countries, and they do send snoops in on all major outbreaks. They do take samples and be popular to say or no.. they have equipment which can tell you in 40 minutes yea or nay as far as Avian.

Proof for that... http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jsseWVvl2qzq90OzJMncqlM3HBAQ

that's of last week or so... we've come a long way. The new test, dubbed "AVantage A/H5N1 Flu Test" is made by Arbor Vita Corp. a California-based firm

Do some start giving everybody Tamiflu so none will test positive?(silence). Do they wrap them in Tamiflu blankets and some fatal cases won't test positive til after they are dead? (silence)

Its a jungle in the Avian Blog world. Without getting too pro AFT here. There are sites with good data- there are .gov sites with data over a year old. If you are going to tell people, go here to find out what is happening and have an outbreak from 2006 as the newest news- I think that is poor.  It can be said.. that to my knowledge- without a lot of friction - which is a true accomplishment- things posted here as news are backed by links and data. Not theories. If I am going to post a theory or opinion- I try to clearly (when I can) mark it as one. Not always- but try.

Doubt not there are Avian celebrities. In any science, area of knowledge, some are more known, some less. And (please pull toes back so I won't step on them) people are trying to make money and will be on the Pandemic. Some will give out free downloads and then sell books- some have obviously useful but want to make money sell disaster supply sites, and if we were doing the rock opera Tommy - we would have glasses, ear plugs, and a cork for the .. mouth. We have been working a New York guy for a NOSHA approved mask, other than the ever revered n- whatever which might be good for table salt, and sawdust.

In the last 3 years I have learned to go for the science journals, lean heavy on CIDRAP, and CDC. I talked to one of their chief information officers or whatever- and its not like the data is not there for the public to find. We have had human avian in the U.S. It is on CIDRAP and CDC archives.

So, here we go in Egypt again. The horses are off and running and so are the data links and web traffic and google positions. I was really getting into this Clade 7 thing- which was hit heavy on CIDRAP the other day because others have been talking Clade 3 forever.

For those of you that Clade is an irritating and meaningless word at this point let's define

http://www.medterms.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=22233

and for you genetic heavies or anyone wanting to sink their teeth into some serious official stuff read this

http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/14/7/e1.htm

Using the clade designation criteria proposed in Table 1, this study has identified 10 unique first-order numbered clades of the HPAI viruses (H5N1) in the Gs/GD-like lineage (clades 0–9). The group of HA genes previously designated as clade 2 showed a level of diversity that far exceeds the current definition of a clade; therefore, this group was also separated into 5 additional second-order clades (clades 2.1–2.5). Clades 2.1 (avian/human isolates from Indonesia) and 2.3 (avian/human isolates from the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong; Vietnam; Thailand; Lao People's Democratic Republic; and Malaysia) were also further delineated into third-order groups (clades 2.1.1–2.1.3 and 2.3.1–2.3.4), respectively. The origins of isolates belonging to each clade are described in Table 2. For each clade identified, a representative prototype virus is listed to facilitate interpretation of the proposed numbering system (Table 2). Table 2 is definitely worth a look. A lot of info in a short space- will make you Avian Clade literate.

This should give the most serious health professionals and scientists some meat and others who want to wade through it,  something to ponder on.

The secret to becoming an Avian celebrity is to have a theory. Then you give it a spiffy name, and then it has to be yours and no one else really thought of it.

Some of us simply like to do research and discover stuff. And so- along the way we publish for peers (which I have done and in one case of review got some really spiffy comments). You cannot get around your peers and you might as well take them on nose to nose. You do not pre-publish to avoid being shredded on obvious holes in your theories. You put it out there and let them rip.

Recombination. Well, without the spiffy name- it still has some meat in it as opposed to reassortment to create a unique and highly dangerous pathogenic strain to start the Pandemic. Not as much so with reassortment IMHO. Take three flocks of super charged geese or ducks or whatever, with 3 different strains from Europe - Asia and Africa and head them towards Egypt (which they did) to play swap the gene Avian style- and then start passing out the poorly cooked blood soup to people- yea- could be trouble.

Over simplifying. Not really. You can explain how a wing works so a plane can fly in three sentences to a layman. You can tell a high school student how genes recombine and viruses spread in a paragraph.

Why not do this? That is why I write. That is what my thing is. Making it simple. But more how to survive than why.

Again- good find Waterboy - yeah you are a Jimmy Olsen http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Olsen no doubt(this is meant in terms of youth and bringing a new high energy and interesting posts to the site.) We all work together to track this. To ride the crest of the theory wave I guess is the path to riches for some. Hardest task - to know when we have a real threat. To know when we have widespread REAL clusters and a specific gene mapped critter that is the real deal.

Then it is beyond if, it is when. And saying 'when' we are not allowed to do. Somebody from the infrastructure has to dress up, get a speech writer, and tell the U.S. (after we have moved food, mobilized troops, sent our .gov into safe houses, and done a lot of stuff. Sometimes they drag their feet and sometime eventually it will leak if they drag them long enough) But we sure can warn that it is getting a lot closer. 

Medclinician 

CAIRO - An 18-month old Egyptian girl has contracted the highly pathogenic bird flu virus after coming into contact with infected birds, the latest case in a growing spate of infections in Egypt, state media said on Sunday.

The new infection brings to 66 the number of bird flu cases in humans in the most populous Arab country, which has been hit harder by bird flu than any other country outside Asia.

Egypt has seen a surge in human cases in recent months, with 15 confirmed since the start of the year, compared to seven cases between Jan. 1 and April 17 last year.

The girl, from the north Egyptian province of Kafr el-Sheikh, was being treated with the antiviral drug Tamiflu, state news agency MENA reported, citing the health ministry.

While the H5N1 avian influenza virus rarely infects people, experts say they fear it could mutate into a form that people could easily pass to one another, sparking a pandemic that could kill millions.

Since 2003, H5N1 has infected at least 412 people in 15 countries and killed 254. It has killed or forced the culling of more than 300 million birds in 61 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

Some 23 Egyptians have died after contracting the bird flu virus. Most of those infected had come into contact with infected domestic birds in a country where roughly 5 million households depend on domestically raised poultry as a significant source of food and income.

The World Health Organisation said this month it was concerned some Egyptians may carry the bird flu virus without showing symptoms and this could give the virus more of a chance to mutate to a strain that spreads easily among humans.

© Copyright (c) Canwest News Service

Hey Albert.  I am with you....the difference is that I usually just don't read his posts, so I don't make negative comments....because I know what he says and some others in the past, when I see they posted something, I usually don't read it.  Keep on keeping on Albert, you are right to direct everyone to facts and point out that we can't conclude anything.  We are all prepared anyways, so we have the luxury of not nit picking hte small stuff and waiting for real facts.  Your the best Albert!  Blesses!

WHO is heading to Egypt...

The New York Times

April 21, 2009
Avian Flu Cases in Egypt Raise Alarms
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

An unusual pattern of avian flu cases in Egypt — almost all are in toddlers, all of whom have survived — has led some flu-tracking Web sites to speculate that dozens of silent cases are circulating there.

That would be an alarming development, but other experts, including those at the World Health Organization, say such fears are exaggerated. Although thousands of Egyptians have rushed their children to hospitals this flu season, there is no evidence yet of asymptomatic avian flu cases or any significant mutation in the H5N1 virus.

“Right now, it’s all hot air,” said Dr. Robert G. Webster, a flu expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis. “I hope to hell it’s not happening, because it would mean the virus is adapting to humans. But there’s not a shred of data.”

Bird flu has faded from world headlines because it has not caused a pandemic. But the disease is still circulating in poultry in Egypt, Indonesia, China, Vietnam and along the India-Bangladesh border. It has mutated into at least 10 strains and occasionally infects humans.

An April 8 Reuters article from Cairo quoted a visiting W.H.O. expert saying his agency feared “something strange happening in Egypt” and would help the government test the blood of healthy people for antibodies this summer.

Antibodies to the flu would indicate they had recovered from silent infections.

But a W.H.O. spokesman said privately that the agency was just helping the Egyptians with a long-planned study and the article had “jumped the gun.”

Translations of Egyptian media reports posted on flu-tracking sites say dozens of suspected cases have been hospitalized, but some seem to confuse avian flu with seasonal flu and even confirmed poultry cases. The Egyptian health ministry, which works closely with a United States Navy laboratory based in Cairo, has confirmed 15 human cases this year, with no deaths; almost all were in young children.

Dr. Nikki Shindo, a W.H.O. medical officer who works in Egypt, said the surge in toddler cases and survivals had a possible explanation. The government has loudly warned its citizens to avoid sick poultry and has trained doctors in remote clinics to give Tamiflu quickly and move cases to state hospitals, where treatment is free. In a country where chickens are both kept as pets and eaten, toddlers still touch dying birds but poultry workers would not.

Egypt’s outbreak response contrasts sharply to Indonesia’s, where the sick often take herbal medicine first and where rural clinics lack Tamiflu, she said.

Dr. Arnold S. Monto, a flu expert at the University of Michigan School of Public Health who also teaches in Egypt, said even geography helps. All cases are along the Nile and easily moved to Cairo, while travel among Indonesia’s thousands of islands is slower.

Also, he said, the government has been more aggressive since it was criticized by opposition parties for not wiping out the poultry epidemic that began in 2006.

Dr. Tim Uyeki, a flu specialist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, said there had been mild cases of H5N1 among children in several countries. There have also, he said, been studies in Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia and Nigeria similar to the one proposed for Egypt in which the blood of cullers, poultry workers and relatives of sick people has been tested.

“Those are the ideal people to look at,” he said. “And there was zero or extremely low prevalence of antibodies,” meaning silent infections were very uncommon.

Yes, albert, I see you saying stuff on both sides, so I am wondering also if that was sarcasm at its best. 

Egyptian child dies of bird flu
http://www.google.com/hostedne...

An Egyptian boy has died of bird flu, the 24th reported death from the disease since it broke out in the country in 2006, state media reported on Tuesday.

The six-year-old from the outskirts of Cairo died of respiratory failure, the state-run MENA news agency quoted a health ministry official as saying. He had been in hospital since last month.

It was the first death from the disease this year, the official said, although four new cases have been reported over the past week.

The fourth was a four-year-old boy in the southern province of Sohag, the health ministry announced on Tuesday.

On Monday, the ministry said that an 18-month-old girl had contracted the virus, and last week it said that two women were in critical condition after being infected.