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Can hurricanes destroy the US ?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2018 at 9:10am
With all the wierd effects of global warming, I would not be at all surprised to find that the thermophile had cooled. Despite its high temperature and vast size however, the thermophile would be unlikely to produce much effect at Earth's surface as its molecules are so far appart. It is almost vaccuum.

However if the thermophile has cooled, that is evidence that the warming of the Earth's surface is definitely NOT solar in origin. The temperature of the thermophile layer is almose entirely solar-generated. So if it is cooling whilst the rest of the earth is warming, then something here is more than compensating for reduced solar warming.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2018 at 12:54am
I read a story a while back about the thermosphere now being the coldest it has ever been recorded at (only been measuring it since the space age).   I have a sneaky feeling this is what is allowing the hurricanes to blow up like they have the last couple years.   People think it is heat that drives hurricanes. When in reality it is temperature differential that powers weather.   I have no idea if a cold thermosphere supports global warming or not.


Side note: Google and Youtube have been really pissing me off lately.   It is very obvious they have been modifying their algorithms to make sure we all get our news from "approved" sources.   I only mention it because I for the life of me couldn't find the article to back up what I said in the first paragraph.   I know I read it and not even that long ago but google has become useless at helping me find it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2018 at 11:57pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2018 at 2:30am
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-11/i-have-no-words-aerial-footage-shows-trail-devastation-left-hurricane-michael,

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/10/monster-hurricane-michael-fourth.html,

https://www.wunderground.com/news.

DJ-"Michael" coincided with a "sharp fall" at the stock-exchanges. Most likely there is only a limited relationship between the two events although it may be hard to look into investors minds.

Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects;
Harvey 125 billion, Maria 92 billion, Irma 65 billion US$ in damages.
this year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects Florence brought 45 billion in damages, Michael most likely will go beyond that (and the season is not over yet).

Most damages are impossible to put in numbers, trust in the safety of the place you live, work, invest getting damaged. Tourism gone. Trust in governments gone.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2018 at 2:14am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 11 2018 at 12:54am
Agreed that water does most of the damage during a hurricane. Michal produced a huge surge no doubt.

I was only taking issue with the wind speeds they said.   We should all know more in the morning.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 11:09pm
Deep Thinker, MrMBB333 also compared hurricanes with tornadoes-in my (DJ) opinion this is incorrect because with hurricanes most damage is done by the water/surge/rain...(But I admit I am not an expert)

BPEarthwatch also expressing surprise "Michael" remaining a hurricane-on land-that long. Unprecedented ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjU8iXLyaq4 "There must be a lot of damage"!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 10:23pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 10:02pm
The satellite image looked very impressive and that 919 is scary like I said....

However look at the pictures we have of Andrews aftermath, or even Katrina...    a Cat 4/5 hurricane doesn't damage stuff, it is a slate wiper. The damage is like an ef 2or3 tornado that is 20 miles wide. Homes are stripped to their foundation and even all your vegetation gets stripped clean.   So far what we see is homes with roofs torn off not homes that have blown away. Maybe we haven't seen the worst of the damage yet, however we had storm chasers actually out broadcasting from in and around the eye. They would be dead if the winds where 155.

Maybe it has something to do with the rapid intensification... maybe those stronger winds never made it down the surface.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 9:37pm
DeepThinker; maybe the strength of "Michael" is in the area effected ? (About 10% of the US population involved directly). Also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFkjxwsx94M Mr.MBB333 is correct; SE Georgia had no reason to expect a cat-2 hurricane going that far inland !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1-wzvLovAwRobert Scribler-"Michael" did increase in strength fast-the "models" did underestimate what was coming. (DJ-In my opinion when experts are surprised at what is unfolding can you blame citizens for underestimating this storm? Proberbly many would have left when they were told a cat5 was coming!)

In2ThinAir https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkKdkfYahBw expecting "Michael" proberbly remaining a cat1-OVER LAND !!!!-for several hours and wondering what it will do when it reaches the Atlantic. (DJ-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212416.shtml?cone#contents has "Michael" as a storm. But maybe they will "rethink" the situation ?)

DJ-Let me be clear when a cat5 storm ever would come over the Netherlands we are knocked-out and will be down for a very long time if we would not get foreign aid. Even with the best protection you can not avoid extreme damage as a result of extreme force.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects will get updated-most damages are in things that do NOT happen, tourists that do NOT come, investments NOT being made etc.

https://www.wunderground.com/news
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 9:31pm
I'm watching the footage of the aftermath, and I see nothing to suggest that the wind speeds were being exaggerated. Every media outlet - from Fox to CNN - seemed to be in agreement that it was just shy of Cat 5 when it made landfall. I'm curious as to why you think it was being reported as being more powerful than it actually was. What would be the end game?

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 2:24pm
I wish we really knew the truth of this...   Yes that 919 looks really bad but I don't know how they figured it.   However those wind speeds are WAY off there is no evidence of winds greater than about 110-120mph. We do have a gust at the AFB hat was 130+.    But that was just a gust and I am looking at pictures of damage. Yes it was a strong hurricane but here is very little evidence that it is the "strongest ever" or what ever they want to say.   I know it is possible that we have not yet gotten reports from the hardest hit places. I maybe jumping the gun here but I pray I am right.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 11:17am
https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-cat4-landfall-unprecedented-location:
Michael plowed ashore just after midday Wednesday near Mexico Beach, Florida, packing maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

With an estimated minimum central pressure of 919 millibars, Michael was the third most intense hurricane landfall in the continental United States, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.

(DJ-cat 5 =wind156mph+ and pressure -920mb)
Michael was by far the most intense hurricane to landfall in the Florida Panhandle, according to NOAA's 167-year best-track hurricane database.

Prior to Michael, there were 27 Category 4 or stronger hurricanes that made landfall in the continental U.S. in records dating to 1851, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.
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Michael will also be the first Category 4+ continental U.S. hurricane landfall to happen in October in 64 years.

There have been only four such landfalls since the mid-19th century.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/index.php?pageid=tstorm_read&trid=1296

https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-cat4-historic-landfall-gulf-coast-florida


http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/u-s-national-news/3259-1-36-pm-edt-landfall-155-mph-sustained-winds

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-10/extremely-dangerous-hurricane-michael-strengthens-cat-4-southeast-braces-record:
Update (1:40 pm ET): The "worst case scenario" has become a reality. Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida at 1:40 pm as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 155 miles per hour (that's 2 mph shy of Category 5 status). Already, the storm is the most powerful hurricane to make landfall in the Continental US in 14 years.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 12:31am
In 144 hrs "Michael" is expected as a post-tropical 981mb depression somewere west of Ireland. It can/will bring severe weather in a week-more or less-from now somewere in western Europe. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs_latest.png

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Florida-Panhandle-Bracing-Potential-Category-4-Hit-Michael and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/100555.shtml "Michael" is now a cat4 hurricane.

Models trending stronger with Michael
The 18Z Tuesday run of our top intensity model from 2017, the HWRF model, predicted that Michael would peak as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds at 8 am EDT Wednesday, then weaken to a high-end Category 3 with 125 mph winds at landfall, early Wednesday afternoon. The 18Z Tuesday run of the HMON model predicted Michael would peak as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds at 8 am Wednesday, then weaken by landfall to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. The latest 0Z Wednesday runs of our other two top intensity models, DSHIPS and LGEM, predicted that Michael would make landfall as a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 125 – 130 mph winds. Landfalling Category 4 hurricanes are rare in the mainland U.S., with just 24 such landfalls since 1851—an average of one every seven years. (Category 5 landfalls are rarer still, with just three on record).
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Our two most reliable rapid intensity forecasting models, SHIPS and DTOPS, predicted with their 0Z Wednesday forecasts that Michael had a 20% and 0% chance, respectively, of becoming a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds before landfall. SHIPS is the model NHC uses operationally to forecast rapid intensification, and DTOPS is an experimental model that NHC started evaluating last year.

DJ-Will companies invest in a country that is this likely to get hit by extreme weather this often when there may be better alternatives ? Canada, Mexico, even some islands do better than the US in dealing with extreme weather.

Just like Japan, China, the US is more than average vulnarable for climate change related extreme weather events. But unlike Japan, China (the EU and others) the US is doing "not that much" to deal with it.

As a result large area's of the US may turn into a chemical wasteland, infrastructure chronicly in bad shape.

From a Dutch perspective-we take the sea very serious. In 1945-at the end of World War 2-10% of the Netherlands (not just coastal area's also riverarea's were the Germans did blow up dyke's to stop Allied forces) was under water. A stormsurge feb 1-1953 did kill over 1800 people in the west of this country-with severe flooding in a large part of NW Europe.

Repeated, ever stronger, hurricanes (and other extreme weather) at the long run-in my opinion-may become so damaging the US has not enough time to "get back on its feet again". With "Oscar" now at 40% chance of formation within 5 days-east of Nicaragua-the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season may become-just like 2017-"ugly".

For the people in the effected area's I am very sorry, hope damage stays limited-take care of all you care for.

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-10-09-michael-storm-surge-erode-florida-beaches
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2018 at 10:40pm
Regarding the question in the thread title: I don't think that hurricanes will destroy the US, but with repeated hitting they will definitely weaken it by taking a huge economic toll.

The extent of the economic toll will depend on political rules, such as flood insurance being paid to rebuild a house (in a flood area) rather than moving people to more secure areas.


[(Apart from Yellowstone blowing, or a powerful EMP attack,) I see the possibly a large earthquake on the other side of the country, if the "independent" faults are actually connected, a possibly being financially devastating enough to destroy the country]
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2018 at 9:24pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ba_8pKa-g3A&t=33s
BPEarthwatch describing his experience during "Katrina" when he was 120 miles away from New Orleans. Two weeks no water or electricity, 120 miles windgusts during the storm, trucks full of bodybags....
DJ-Michael may be stronger, do more damage...I would not be surprised when Michael reaches the Atlantic (Thursdaynight/Friday early morning) it could even-for a while reach cat1 status again.....

Healthwise http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/index.php?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=EH-20181010-64964-USA there are many worries-after the hurricane some places will see a drop in temperatures when a cold front moves in.

East of Nicaragua "Oscar" is most likely to form-may follow "Michael's"path. (And YES this is all climate change related, YES Trump and other politicians are bribed by the fossil fuel industry, it is up to us-the people-to inform eachother, make changes. Politics do not lead-they follow)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2018 at 8:58pm
Hurricanes can sit out in the Gulf of Mexico, gathering energy from the warm Gulf waters, so Michael may yet grow beyond a Category 3.

There are other tropical storms & depressions worldwide....one, Sergio, is hovering off the coast of Mexico in the Pacific Ocean and seems likely to impact Mexico, California, Arizona and other locations with torrential rain.

There are also storms off the coast of Saudi Arabia, India, and out in the open Atlantic Ocean worth watching.   Global warming is expressing itself nicely in increased storm activity as has been long predicted.

I hope the folks in Florida, Mississippi and Alabama are thankful for having elected Trump into office!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2018 at 8:37pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2018 at 10:00am
13 News Now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ki_8XoJzkfo,
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Michael-Near-Category-3-Strength-it-Heads-Towards-Florida,
http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/u-s-national-news/3251-hurricane-michael-grave-danger-for-florida-panhandle-24-hours-left-to-get-out

DJ-"Michael" can become a "monster". There is at present some dry air to the west of Michael-bringing sheerwinds, may slow down/weaken the system. On the other hand there are some indications "Michael"is gaining strength because of the very warm-and warm up to sometimes 100 meters-seawater.
This morning (C.E.T.) BP Earthwatch showed 52% cat3, 32% cat4. The way it developes may give room for a more pessimistic view...

"Michael"will move high speed over the Carolina's. This means that in the NE quarter of the storm you may have to add up the (anti-clockwise) windspeed from the hurricane and the speed of movement of the system.

Stormsurge and rain may get a very serious problem in the SE-US. On Friday "Michael" is expected-as a storm- to move into the Atlantic maybe scratching New Jersey. Some changes may bring it over New York.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152906.shtml?cone#contents

13NewsNow mentions at present FOUR stormsystems in the Atlantic. Nadine and Leslie most likely very limited risks, a new system may form in several days east of Nicaragua. (But it is only showing up in a few models).

Sergio may reach western Texas-as a depression- saterday via northern Mexico.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2018 at 10:20pm
Very serious situation;

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Michael-Gains-Steam-SE-Gulf-Cat-3-Landfall-Likely-Gulf-Coast:

NHC is predicting Michael’s top winds to reach 120 mph (Cat 3 strength) on Wednesday morning shortly before landfall. Michael could come ashore with Category 2 winds, and a Category 4 strike cannot yet be ruled out, but a Cat 3 landfall appears the most likely outcome.
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In fact, the official NHC forecast late Monday predicted that Michael would still be a 50-mph tropical storm as it reaches eastern North Carolina late Thursday, more than a day after landfall. Winds of this strength can easily bring down trees in wet soil, a threat that has proven deadly in hurricane after hurricane.

BPEarthwatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgzJGYXbqHk some models go for cat4.
In2thinair https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPQs2P0i-9M&t=8s
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