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Can hurricanes destroy the US ?

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 4:46am
MrMBB333 with an update on power in Florida https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14eC4n0oXRY&t=39s in some areas may take more than 10 days. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WPNEsSplOc "Jose" could go a lot of directions. Models have lost grip. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnHs-qgJ18Y Remains of "Irma" moving towards Texas-Houston-Gulf. (Could it become a hurricane again in the Gulf ? Katia did so after crossing Mexico and moving into the Pacific.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jwq2aQXK1E also BP Earthwatch surprised by the strenght of "Irma" !



Tech, we now have a lot of wind. But this is nothing compared to a hurricane. Since Arnhem is build on hills north of the (Lower)Rhine-river-with a lot of low lying land rain can be a problem. We have a "dyke" for the railway allthrough the city-so with a lot of rain water is a problem at some places. 

"Climate change were you are" makes a good item !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 10:01pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PLNY-kMMss BPEarthWatch some models "Jose" moving towards New York tuesday. But a lot of uncertainty. "Jose" influencing some remains of "Irma" above Texas. 

MrMBB333 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1tP7H6pWHE global view; Fukushima-Japan may see a cat-2 cyclone. Western Mexico a cat-4 but the mountains there will limit damage. On the Atlantic all models have a different story. "Jose" the be part of a large system of depressions and storms moving towards Europe ?
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2017 at 12:22pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2017 at 4:41pm
this JOSE guy is REALLY getting on my nerves
it was supposed to stay FAR out to sea
but obviously isn't going to happen
I''m not gonna take a direct hit but we certainly will get a lot of wind and rain

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/235324.shtml?cone

this bad boy is really unpredictable
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2017 at 9:34pm
Satori, "Jose" might become recordbreaking in duration. MrMBB333 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdHYv84X_2U "Jose" looks a lot like "Sandy" and new hurricanes forming on the Atlantic. (Impact on the Dominican Republic as a cat.4/5 in a week then moving to Florida ?)

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2017 at 10:21pm
Thanks for the update on Hurricane Jose! 


That thing was wandering around in the Atlantic, but it sure looks like it is making a bee-line for New England!  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2017 at 3:43am
The longest duration of a hurricane was the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane 27 days and 18hours. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Jose_(2017) started as a tropical wave august 31. 

Other data on (Atlantic) hurricanes:




study released Friday by Metstat, a weather-analysis company specializing in “detailed precipitation analysis” and “weather frequency analysis,” found that Harvey delivered a stunning once-in-25,000-year deluge over much of southeast Texas.

Some places saw an unimaginable once-in-500,000-year deluge, which translates to a 0.0002 percent chance of this deluge occurring in any given year. Probabilities that extreme “are calculated by extrapolating the distribution curves for precipitation observed over the last century,” Metstat’s Shauna Bokn explained.

Since global warming has been making extreme precipitation events more likely, however, the U.S. won’t have to wait 25,000 years to witness the next event of Harvey’s proportion.

But, again, to be clear, that’s all based on historical precipitation data over the past century. Human-caused climate change is shifting the baselines. In regard to Harvey, MetStat found that “an interesting atmospheric setup was present that allowed it to stay alive for so long; bringing devastation over such a widespread area.” In particular, “the jet stream was located at very high latitudes, allowed for very light wind shear over Texas, and this aided in the lack of movement for Harvey.”

As climatologist Michael Mann explained during the storm, “the kind of stalled weather pattern that is drenching Houston is precisely the sort of pattern we expect because of climate change.” Climate science predicted a weaker jet stream, and Harvey stalled because of a weakened jet stream.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2017 at 12:25pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNLfZGEzx8c BPEarthWatch-models indicating Jose getting close to New York sept 19/20, another storm hitting Georgia sept 25 and a third one moving into Louisiana /Florida sept. 28. That is just the models. (Lee and Maria would be the names after Katia).

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2017 at 9:18pm
BPEarthWatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWYnvFldvl4
-Jose may reach New York as a cat.1 at night and stay there for a longer period bringing a lot of rain
-2nd storm follows Irma-track over Caribean than to Georgia
-3th storm starts in the Caribean-over Cuba-Florida into the Atlantic
-Also mention of first snowstorm in Montana



MrMBB333, over 20 inches of rain in western Mexico due to "Norma"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isRT-yFqpIg striking in densly populated area with lots of dams.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 1:01am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIROYvZfbbs MrMBB333; "Jose" is starting to look a lot like "Sandy" in 2012. But it may not make landfall-move into the Atlantic and maybe even then return to strike again !

http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/local-news-nyc-nj-ct/1256-uh-oh-euro-216-hour-shows-a-potential-simultaneous-impact-on-the-east-coast-by-two-hurricanes Tuesday "Jose" COULD be less than 200 miles from New York and bring a lot of rain. (DJ; problem is that models are far from perfect). 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange We are on our way to a 4C above normal-drastic action is needed now !

In september 1961 hurricane "Debbie" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961) did do a lot of damage in Ireland and the UK. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Vince In october 2005 hurricane "Vince" reached Spain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_effects_in_Europe
In a paper published in April 2013, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute predicted that by the year 2100, global warming would greatly increase the threat of hurricane-force winds to western Europe from former tropical cyclones and hybrid storms, the latter similar to Hurricane Sandy in 2012. One model predicted an increase from 2 to 13 in the number of cyclones with hurricane-force winds in the waters offshore western Europe. The study suggested that conditions favorable for tropical cyclones would expand 1,100 km (700 mi) to the east. A separate study based out of University of Castile-La Manchapredicted that hurricanes would develop in the Mediterranean Sea in Septembers by the year 2100, which would threaten countries in southern Europe.[5]
Hurricanes in the Atlantic are not only a risk for North America they also effect the weather in Europe-and the Arctic (bringing warm air-increase polar melt).

Severe (economic) damage due to climate change to the US effect global economies and trade. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlG6I9nlDgQ&feature=share Populationgrowth of 240.000 persons per day, unrealistic pricing-leaving lots of cost to the taxpayer for private profit is destroying our planet. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 5:58am
interesting piece on how hurricanes affect infrastructure

Hurricane Irma: Revenge of the Everglades...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/15/1698865/-Hurricane-Irma-Revenge-of-the-Everglades
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 7:46am
Satori, reminds me of building a house on solid ice during winter-one day summer will come....

http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/local-news-nyc-nj-ct/1259-hurricane-jose-expected-in-nj-nyc-area-in-four-days-we-could-get-a-rough-ride-a-direct-hit-or-nothing models on "Jose" (and "Lee" and "Maria" ) are very uncertain. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ will give advisories on a new hurricane on its way to the Lesser Antilles. 




In a recent Vice article, Nafeez Ahmed broke the story of Schroders, a British investment firm with US $542 billion under management, privately advising its clients that global temperatures could reach 7.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. Of course, as is well known, the safe limit for warming is generally considered to be 2 degrees Celsius.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 8:08am
Perhaps the biggest problem from extreme weather is not the damage from high winds, but from the storm surge, caused by rising sea levels. 

Data shows that the oceans are rising, due to melting of glaciers AND expansion of ocean water mass as temperature rises.  

All coastal areas are at risk, and since the majority of the world's population lives close to the seas, this is going to be a huge problem.   See the graphics in this link:



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 12:17pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw-bayXRZ-QBPEarthWatch and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-rzzmycHLMMrMBB333 with latest updates. 

Sept 19-New York Area "Jose" cat1
Sept 25-"Maria" will sweep the US East Coast. 
Later on "Lee" may show up as well. 




CRS,DrPH-the biggest risk from these chain of hurricanes is massive panic in the US. The "human reaction" already showing on Caribean islands with drinkingwater and foodproblems, no houses, next hurricanes on its way....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 10:57pm
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:


CRS,DrPH-the biggest risk from these chain of hurricanes is massive panic in the US. The "human reaction" already showing on Caribean islands with drinkingwater and foodproblems, no houses, next hurricanes on its way....
 

Thanks, Dutch Josh!  My wife and I were married in St. John, US Virgin Islands, on Nov 20, 1997 (nearly 20 years ago!), it saddens us to see this devastation. 

We are reading about widespread looting and intimidation of the populace by armed thugs, very sad.  A model for what any of us might face in the future, due to pandemic, EMP etc.

Sadly, more storms are on the way....Maria and Lee look like they could add to the misery in the Caribbean. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2017 at 12:47am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYqqkc1lD9sBPEarthWatch;
-Jose may stay at the Atlantic not doing much damage to the US, but Jose is full of surprises
-Lee is moving north in the Atlantic, proberbly not doing much damage
-Maria may become another Irma-cat3/4 moving over the Carribean towards US East Coast
-another storm sept 30 close to the Mexican gulf coast moving into Mexico (in this model)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnSPb1FJVqIMrMBB333 newer info, sound problem in the video.
Maria could become a cat.4 but get pulled into the Atlantic by "Jose" before reaching the US coast. Jose would do another turn south to get in touch with Maria.

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is very bizar. If this is the "new normal" many islands in the Caribean have a "very limited future". Not much tourism or agriculture=no means for many people to live there.





DJ: This story-again-is not only about the US. It is about climate change effecting global economics, logistics, foodproduction etc. When these destructive storms are only the beginning of "very bad weather"  we are in very big problems as humans.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2017 at 6:48am
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/cmc/cmc_atl_accprec.html 
showing several storms forming both in the Atlantic and in the Caribean. 
-sept 20 "Jose" "to close for comfort" New York/Boston
-sept 24 "Maria" over Florida, "Irma-track"
-sept 27 "Nate"  Louisiana

All are models-but not looking good !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2017 at 10:13am
Dutch Josh, great point about the grim future of the Caribbean islands!  

They are squarely in the line-of-fire to hurricanes, and these are likely to increase in the future.  

Damn shame, they are all very nice islands with wonderful people and resources.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2017 at 11:49am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgS1cQKbrpI BPEarthWatch confirming an earlier scenario of 3 storms effecting the US the coming 2 weeks. 

CRS, DrPH-after the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrier_Reef another part of Earth is destroyed. People become refugees-losing everything they had including-with some bad luck-selfrespect. 

When I also hear about the early snowstorms in the northern US-other extreme weather events around the globe-I try to imagine the "exponential factor"; superstorms, hail-stones that kill, extreme cold in areas that should be warm or the other way round. 

Not looking good ! BPEarthWatch relates the "climate chaos" to solar flares-most make the link with climate change. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2017 at 10:48pm
This is not the US yet...
Originally posted by BBC BBC wrote:

Maria is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane as it nears the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean.

The category one hurricane will rapidly strengthen over the next 48 hours and will hit the islands late on Monday, the US National Hurricane Center says.

It is moving roughly along the same path as Irma, the hurricane that devastated the region this month.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Guadeloupe, Dominica, St Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat and Martinique.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41302157
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