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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Can hurricanes destroy the US ?

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2018 at 8:56am
DJ-Looks like extreme damage on its way; http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/u-s-national-news/3158-47-3-inches-of-rain-in-48-hours-and-it-s-still-raining-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fayetteville,_North_Carolina

Looking at https://www.google.nl/maps/@33.9546001,-78.004346,964a,35y,44.66t/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=nl any news about the close to the Cape-Fear-river Nuclear plant ? https://www.duke-energy.com/our-company/about-us/power-plants

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-14/florence-may-be-costliest-storm-us-history-170-billion-damage https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152250.shtml?rainqpf#contents

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dire-Flood-Threat-Carolinas-Florences-Rains-Continue:
Relentless rainbands sweeping around Tropical Storm Florence continue to drench parts of North and South Carolina already waterlogged after days of torrential downpours. Florence’s center—located about 40 miles west of Myrtle Beach, SC, at 11 am EDT Saturday, with top sustained winds down to 45 mph—was drifting west at just 2 mph. This painfully slow progress, together with Florence’s vast field of moisture, is a recipe for catastrophic rains through the weekend and potentially devastating floods into the coming week. Several rivers across the region are already predicted to set all-time record crests by Tuesday or Wednesday, including the Lumber and Cape Fear rivers, which caused massive flooding just two years ago during Hurricane Matthew.

Philippines; http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/09/a-storm-surge-four-storeys-high-wind.html
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2018 at 11:28am
http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/u-s-national-news/3168-north-carolina-nuclear-plant-declares-emergency and almost the same https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-17/inaccessible-north-carolina-nuclear-plant-declares-unusual-event-during-storm

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/09/floodwaters-rise-as-killer-storm-stalks.html

DJ-The Brunswick nuclear plant is still getting electricity to run the plant-had not to fall back on generators. Worst case could be that they are not able to get rid of cooling water due to floods-employees getting exhausted.
(The chances for a Fukushima-scenario most likely are as good as 0%-unless situation gets much worse. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-14/florence-may-be-costliest-storm-us-history-170-billion-damage)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Florence (getting updated dailey and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season

In the short term there is no other storm on its way to the US. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5-still "Florence" will bring large amounts of rain-other extreme weather events are possible. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Florences-Flood-Threat-Expands-Inland
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2018 at 9:58pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2018 at 1:21am
-"Helene" moved to UK/Ireland supposed to have done little damage-"Ali" just north of "Helene" did do a lot of damage. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%9319_European_windstorm_season#Storm_Ali (DJ-Did some of the force of Helene transfer to Ali ?)
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-scotland-45578967/storm-ali-hundreds-queue-at-glasgow-buchanan-street-for-buses-to-get-home and https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-45581155/the-path-of-storm-ali

-"Florence"did claim 40 lives in the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Florence#Aftermath Proberbly to early to say what the damage is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season <17billion)

-"Kirk" and "Leslie" are the next names on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane List. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWc9EfBAx1k and https://www.ventusky.com/?p=45;-48;2&l=wind-10m&t=20180929/12 has them both by the end of this month (and a hurricane south of Italy in the Mediterranean Sea). https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

-"Florence" could split up and become two storms again in the Atlantic-coming week ? https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/After-Florence-Whats-Next-Atlantic The north-part of (ex)"Florence" will reach the UK and Ireland as a storm coming weekend. The south-part of "Florence" will hang on in the Mid-Atlantic and could-in time-reform (maybe even be named "Florence" again-NHC has to decide if a depression as a remnant of a hurricane-becoming a hurricane again will get its "old"name).

- (In the article also "Medicane" south of Italy ?)http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/extreme-rainfall-associated-with-intense-cyclone-over-the-tyrrhenian-sea-until-satuday/https://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IT019-Sardegna.html

Hurricane season is far from over the European storm season just started.
https://www.meteoalarm.eu/index.php?lang=en_UK&day=0&AT=0
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2018 at 10:26pm
One of the unforeseen effects of an increase in hurricanes is the impact upon the US agricultural sector.

I am a consultant in the US food industry, and have long argued that storing hog waste in open ponds was a recipe for disaster!

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/9/18/17873632/hurricane-florence-flooding-hog-lagoon-waste-coal-ash-north-carolina[
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 23 2018 at 2:11am
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 23 2018 at 8:21pm
This is really bizarre, and directly tied to climate change...please click on the link and watch the video. Sad.

https://twitter.com/spahn711/status/1043298533519097858/video/1

Terrible! I just watched a herd of cattle get swept away under a bridge in floodwaters just SE of Fittsville, OK after 13+ inches of rain flooded their entire field. #okwx #rain #flood #flooding #StormHour @spann @ReedTimmerAccu @JimCantore
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 23 2018 at 9:39pm
CRS, DrPH-the link did not work (for me at least) but I can imagine the horror.....instead of cattle it could have been a (school)bus etc.

Just like Texas-Harvey 2017 the Carolines now have extreme flooding mixed with extreme (all kind) polution-wich may cause problems for years to come. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nscQfUxieqE In2thinair-remnants of Florence may bring extreme rain-again-to the Carolinas. Most of the time hurricanes after the US move east towards Europe.)

"Kirk" https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024257.shtml?cone#contents may be a limited risk (main risks for all countries is in other extreme weather events).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects "Florence"-so far-caused damage of (over) 38 billion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes "Florence" already at place 6 of most costliest (US Atlantic) hurricanes.(Notice that almost all of the costliest hurricanes are from after 2000-so recent !)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 28 2018 at 9:47pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyldpoeHKCs In2thinair on Rosa and Sergio moving towards Baja California and SW USA. Two mondays (oct 1 and 8) may see a lot of rain most likely in Arizona-possibly in South California.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLZYivKEtVs Robert Scribler; Rosa could dump 1 year rain amount in two days.

DJ-There is a relationship between hurricanes and earthquakes. Moving large amounts of water(weight) is moving pressure. This means an increase of chances for quakes in Mexico and SW-USA.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Kirk-Drenches-Barbados-Rosa-Cat-4-Medicane-Threatens-Greece

DJ-"Trami" could do a lot of damage in Japan. Japan did see a lot of extreme weather this year.

MrMBB333https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vw0w6EnWAlQ A gigantic storm in the Atlantic moving towards Europe.....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2018 at 2:52am
On "Florence" http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/10/clouds-of-monstrous-hyperaggressive.html

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ DJ; At the moment several storms posing a threat for the US (Arizona-Sergio, Michael (next name on the list https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085347.shtml?cone#contents from Alabama to the NE-US)
and even remnants of "Walaka"moving towards Alaska (!!!!)

Also India, Yemen/Oman, Spain etc may face storms.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Caribbean-Disturbance-Eyeing-Central-Gulf-Coast and https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/ https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2018/10/much-higher-than-normal-temperatures-at.html All those storms have to do with the disrupted jet-stream wich is caused by a hot Arctic-bringing even more warmth to the Arctic region. Tropical Tidbits now having TEN stormsystems as current storms is extreme !

DJ-Here in the Netherlands "Leslie" may bring extreme warm weather next week, Ireland may get the storm....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2018 at 9:25pm
DJ; According to MrMBB333 there is so much warm water in the Gulf of Mexico "Michael" could reach cat-3 status before hitting the SE US. Extreme stormsurge and extreme rain on it's way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjWSFGKcRRU

Also BPEarthwatch expecting "Michael" to be "big". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAtsmjHbFoI Landfall most likely wednesday. "Nadine" could be forming in the Caribbean Sea-sept 16 south of western Cuba.

"Sergio" may reach Arizona, New Mexico over western Mexico Friday. (In a best scenario limited damage and an end to drought, enough drinkingwater. In the worst scenario damfaillures, water-infrastructure damaged that is bringing water to SW-US)

Extreme weather, landslides did kill over 12 people in Central America (Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador)https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-6250713/Tropical-Storm-Michael-drenches-Honduras.html

Red Tide http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/10/ive-been-here-all-my-life-and-ive-never.html and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBzeIteiqJI
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2018 at 8:08am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2018 at 9:33am
DJ; According to MrMBB333 there is so much warm water in the Gulf of Mexico "Michael" could reach cat-3 status before hitting the SE US. Extreme stormsurge and extreme rain on it's way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjWSFGKcRRU

Thanks, DJ! Please watch Michael in real time via this link:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-75.52,24.29,1736/loc=-85.118,21.847
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2018 at 10:20pm
Very serious situation;

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Michael-Gains-Steam-SE-Gulf-Cat-3-Landfall-Likely-Gulf-Coast:

NHC is predicting Michael’s top winds to reach 120 mph (Cat 3 strength) on Wednesday morning shortly before landfall. Michael could come ashore with Category 2 winds, and a Category 4 strike cannot yet be ruled out, but a Cat 3 landfall appears the most likely outcome.
-
In fact, the official NHC forecast late Monday predicted that Michael would still be a 50-mph tropical storm as it reaches eastern North Carolina late Thursday, more than a day after landfall. Winds of this strength can easily bring down trees in wet soil, a threat that has proven deadly in hurricane after hurricane.

BPEarthwatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgzJGYXbqHk some models go for cat4.
In2thinair https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPQs2P0i-9M&t=8s
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2018 at 10:00am
13 News Now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ki_8XoJzkfo,
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Michael-Near-Category-3-Strength-it-Heads-Towards-Florida,
http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/u-s-national-news/3251-hurricane-michael-grave-danger-for-florida-panhandle-24-hours-left-to-get-out

DJ-"Michael" can become a "monster". There is at present some dry air to the west of Michael-bringing sheerwinds, may slow down/weaken the system. On the other hand there are some indications "Michael"is gaining strength because of the very warm-and warm up to sometimes 100 meters-seawater.
This morning (C.E.T.) BP Earthwatch showed 52% cat3, 32% cat4. The way it developes may give room for a more pessimistic view...

"Michael"will move high speed over the Carolina's. This means that in the NE quarter of the storm you may have to add up the (anti-clockwise) windspeed from the hurricane and the speed of movement of the system.

Stormsurge and rain may get a very serious problem in the SE-US. On Friday "Michael" is expected-as a storm- to move into the Atlantic maybe scratching New Jersey. Some changes may bring it over New York.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152906.shtml?cone#contents

13NewsNow mentions at present FOUR stormsystems in the Atlantic. Nadine and Leslie most likely very limited risks, a new system may form in several days east of Nicaragua. (But it is only showing up in a few models).

Sergio may reach western Texas-as a depression- saterday via northern Mexico.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2018 at 8:37pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2018 at 8:58pm
Hurricanes can sit out in the Gulf of Mexico, gathering energy from the warm Gulf waters, so Michael may yet grow beyond a Category 3.

There are other tropical storms & depressions worldwide....one, Sergio, is hovering off the coast of Mexico in the Pacific Ocean and seems likely to impact Mexico, California, Arizona and other locations with torrential rain.

There are also storms off the coast of Saudi Arabia, India, and out in the open Atlantic Ocean worth watching.   Global warming is expressing itself nicely in increased storm activity as has been long predicted.

I hope the folks in Florida, Mississippi and Alabama are thankful for having elected Trump into office!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2018 at 9:24pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ba_8pKa-g3A&t=33s
BPEarthwatch describing his experience during "Katrina" when he was 120 miles away from New Orleans. Two weeks no water or electricity, 120 miles windgusts during the storm, trucks full of bodybags....
DJ-Michael may be stronger, do more damage...I would not be surprised when Michael reaches the Atlantic (Thursdaynight/Friday early morning) it could even-for a while reach cat1 status again.....

Healthwise http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/index.php?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=EH-20181010-64964-USA there are many worries-after the hurricane some places will see a drop in temperatures when a cold front moves in.

East of Nicaragua "Oscar" is most likely to form-may follow "Michael's"path. (And YES this is all climate change related, YES Trump and other politicians are bribed by the fossil fuel industry, it is up to us-the people-to inform eachother, make changes. Politics do not lead-they follow)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2018 at 10:40pm
Regarding the question in the thread title: I don't think that hurricanes will destroy the US, but with repeated hitting they will definitely weaken it by taking a huge economic toll.

The extent of the economic toll will depend on political rules, such as flood insurance being paid to rebuild a house (in a flood area) rather than moving people to more secure areas.


[(Apart from Yellowstone blowing, or a powerful EMP attack,) I see the possibly a large earthquake on the other side of the country, if the "independent" faults are actually connected, a possibly being financially devastating enough to destroy the country]
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 12:31am
In 144 hrs "Michael" is expected as a post-tropical 981mb depression somewere west of Ireland. It can/will bring severe weather in a week-more or less-from now somewere in western Europe. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs_latest.png

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Florida-Panhandle-Bracing-Potential-Category-4-Hit-Michael and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/100555.shtml "Michael" is now a cat4 hurricane.

Models trending stronger with Michael
The 18Z Tuesday run of our top intensity model from 2017, the HWRF model, predicted that Michael would peak as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds at 8 am EDT Wednesday, then weaken to a high-end Category 3 with 125 mph winds at landfall, early Wednesday afternoon. The 18Z Tuesday run of the HMON model predicted Michael would peak as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds at 8 am Wednesday, then weaken by landfall to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. The latest 0Z Wednesday runs of our other two top intensity models, DSHIPS and LGEM, predicted that Michael would make landfall as a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 125 – 130 mph winds. Landfalling Category 4 hurricanes are rare in the mainland U.S., with just 24 such landfalls since 1851—an average of one every seven years. (Category 5 landfalls are rarer still, with just three on record).
-
Our two most reliable rapid intensity forecasting models, SHIPS and DTOPS, predicted with their 0Z Wednesday forecasts that Michael had a 20% and 0% chance, respectively, of becoming a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds before landfall. SHIPS is the model NHC uses operationally to forecast rapid intensification, and DTOPS is an experimental model that NHC started evaluating last year.

DJ-Will companies invest in a country that is this likely to get hit by extreme weather this often when there may be better alternatives ? Canada, Mexico, even some islands do better than the US in dealing with extreme weather.

Just like Japan, China, the US is more than average vulnarable for climate change related extreme weather events. But unlike Japan, China (the EU and others) the US is doing "not that much" to deal with it.

As a result large area's of the US may turn into a chemical wasteland, infrastructure chronicly in bad shape.

From a Dutch perspective-we take the sea very serious. In 1945-at the end of World War 2-10% of the Netherlands (not just coastal area's also riverarea's were the Germans did blow up dyke's to stop Allied forces) was under water. A stormsurge feb 1-1953 did kill over 1800 people in the west of this country-with severe flooding in a large part of NW Europe.

Repeated, ever stronger, hurricanes (and other extreme weather) at the long run-in my opinion-may become so damaging the US has not enough time to "get back on its feet again". With "Oscar" now at 40% chance of formation within 5 days-east of Nicaragua-the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season may become-just like 2017-"ugly".

For the people in the effected area's I am very sorry, hope damage stays limited-take care of all you care for.

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-10-09-michael-storm-surge-erode-florida-beaches
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