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climatechange out of control

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: climatechange out of control
    Posted: July 13 2015 at 2:48am
http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2015/07/arctic-sea-ice-collapse-threatens.html

With still two months of melting to go before the sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum for 2015, the threat of sea ice collapse is ominous. The Arctic-News Blog has been warning for years about the growing chance of a collapse of the sea ice, in which case huge amounts of sunlight that previously were reflected back into space, as well as heat that previously went into melting the ice, will then instead have to be absorbed by the water, resulting in a dramatic rise of sea surface temperatures. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 13 2015 at 2:50am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 13 2015 at 2:52am
From Dutchsins Facebook july 12:

A large blast from UNDERGROUND happened along the shores of Rhode Island.... the blast was reported to feel like an earthquake followed by a GAS explosion.

One woman tossed high into the air from the beach, and landed on nearby rocks.

This is obviously an underground methane explosion.

This event now marks two different methane "blasts" in the past few weeks. The first large methane event was along the shores of Lake Huron just North of Detroit Michigan.

Both areas where this methane has released reside on the Northeast portion of the North American Craton.

To have two areas blast or geyser off methane in a few weeks time, both in the Northeastern edge of the craton means we're seeing a beginning of the "methane event" that experts have warned about.

If things continue on this path, we shall see several unmistakeable methane blasts, geysers, and even large scale releases.

I have my suspicions on the true cause of the "wildfires" in North Canada and Alaska. I believe the "wildfires" are nothing more than versions of what we just saw on the beach in Rhode Island. Methane explosions which are leading to forest fires in the pine forests of North Canada and Alaska.

Post Glacial Rebound Effect (PGRE) is the culprit of these methane releases.

In perspective, scientists who are "worried" about large methane releases call it an ELE (extinction level event). I don't know if we're at the beginning of the full methane "event".. but if we start seeing more of these kinds of "explosions" and more events like the Geyser of Methane off Lake Huron... then we might want to take a harder look at the scientists claim about a Methane ELE.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 13 2015 at 7:42am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 13 2015 at 10:25am
Thanks, Dutch Josh!  That NL site is good since it shows the decline in Arctic sea ice thickness as well as extent. 

This is sobering news:

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 13 2015 at 1:41pm

don't worry

relief is on the way ?


s a mini ICE AGE on the way? Scientists warn the sun will 'go to sleep' in 2030 and could cause temperatures to plummet



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 13 2015 at 11:50pm
Thanks Satori and CRS, 


The Earth could be headed for a 'mini ice age' researchers have warned.

A new study claims to have cracked predicting solar cycles - and says that between 2020 and 2030 solar cycles will cancel each other out.

This, they say, will lead to a phenomenon known as the 'Maunder minimum' - which has previously been known as a mini ice age when it hit between 1646 and 1715, even causing London's River Thames to freeze over


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2015 at 12:10am
Solar activity could compensate somewhat for geological activity. The methane-release means heat can not escape enough into space. Decrease of ice and snow on the poles, Greenland, mountains (white surface is reflecting heat from the sun) and increase of sealevel (water picks up heat faster than land) might still get dramatic on the shorter term. 

A lot of heat from the sun is absorbed by the oceans and melting of ice and snow. There is a limit for that. De-freezing of the permafrost means more release from al kind of gasses (some even far worse than CO2, methane in heat-containment).

The "official scientific view"from the I.P.C.C. is not alarming but outdated (in my opinion). Increase in temperatures last decades was most dramatic at the poles/Greenland. 

Release of methane-gas-bubbles under the Arctic will cause (mini)tsunami's that may be unnoticed because the coast of the Arctic sea/ocean is almost without human activity but depend on monitoring by satelite and some oil/gas-explorers. An increase in sinkholes and some (ant)arctic earthquakes may be related to methane/gas-release (and/or global warming). 

I do believe that individual scientists (like Henry Niman, Dutchsinse etc) may be in the frontline of science but the outcome of their studies could be to dramatic (sometimes to raise funding ?) Still time will tell what the truth is, which view was more correct.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2015 at 12:39am
The Daily Fail article is currently being quoted all over the internet. They're a notoriously unreliable source of news, and tend to put their own spin on things. The Maunder Minimum most likely had less to do with the so called Little Ice Age than volcanic activity around that time. And any reduction in solar output would probably be more than compensated for by something they didn't have back then - a runaway warming trend of the kind we're currently experiencing.


"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2015 at 1:21am
Interesting video's from Guy McPherson https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TmifJIbD6o (with students making lots of noises) and Paul Beckwith (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HS6-fwKU4oE why he is doing this from a boat ???)

It appears that there is a number of concerned scientists that are extremely worried. Even if they are not fully correct I think their warnings deserve attention.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2015 at 6:44am

never mindBig smile

Are we headed for a new ice age?


http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/06/17/are-we-headed-for-a-new-ice-age/#.VaURmOyoFIE


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2015 at 1:15am
http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2015/07/ocean-temperatures-at-record-high.html

Ocean Temperatures At Record High

Of all the excess heat that results from people's emissions, 93.4% goes into oceans. Accordingly, ocean heat has strongly increased over the years.

NOAA analysis shows that, for the oceans on the Northern Hemisphere, the June 2015 sea surface temperature was at a record high 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), as also illustrated by the graph below.
As the continued snow decline on Greenland also illustrates, high temperatures can be expected to keep causing further decline of the snow and ice cover for many weeks to come, given that the minimum sea ice extent is typically reached about half September.

As the image below shows, sea surface temperatures as high as 10.1°C (50.1°F) were recorded in Baffin Bay, off the west coast of Greenland, on July 20, 2015.
The danger is that these high temperatures will cause the Arctic sea ice to collapse and unleash huge methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean's seafloor, in turn driving temperatures up even higher and causing more extreme weather events, wildfires, etc. 

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2015 at 1:25am
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/201506

June 2015 was 2nd warmest for the contiguous US

Record warmth engulfed the West; drought worsened in the Northwest; and record precipitation fell in the Ohio Valley.

The June contiguous U.S. average temperature was 71.4°F, 2.9°F above the 20th century average, second only to June 1933 in the 121-year period of record. Record and near-record warmth stretched from the Rockies to West Coast. The average contiguous U.S. temperature for the first half of 2015 was 49.5°F, 1.9°F above the 20th century average, and the 10th warmest January-June on record.

The June precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 3.53 inches, 0.60 inch above average. This was the ninth wettest June on record, and marked the third consecutive month of above-average precipitation for the Lower 48. Above-average precipitation was observed in the Southwest, Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, and Northeast; the Northwest was dry.

This analysis of U.S. temperature and precipitation is based on data back to January 1895, resulting in 121 years of data.

June

Temperature

June 2015 Temperature Departure from Average Map
June 2015 Percent of Normal Precipitation 
June 2015 Temperature Departure from Average (top) 
and Precipitation Departure from Average (bottom)
  • Above-average temperatures were widespread in the West and along the Southeast coast, where 16 states were much warmer than average. CaliforniaIdahoOregonUtah, andWashington were each record warm for June. Several western cities set new all-time June temperature records during an intense heatwave the second half of the month, including Boise, Idaho where the temperature soared to 110°F.
  • The Northeast and Great Lakes region had near- to below-average June temperatures. Above-average precipitation across the region was associated with suppressed daytime temperatures, while nighttime temperatures were near- to above average.
  • The Alaska statewide average temperature for June was the sixth warmest in 91-years of record keeping at 52.4°F, 3.1°F above average. Homer, Alaska had its warmest June on record. Prolonged warmth and dryness and lack of June snow created ideal wildfire conditions with dozens of large wildfires impacting central and southern areas of the state during June.

Precipitation

  • Wetter than average conditions were widespread from the Southwest, in parts of the Great Plains, and across the Midwest and Northeast — 15 states were much wetter than average.IllinoisIndiana, and Ohio were each record wet during June with monthly precipitation totals more than twice the 20th century average.
  • Below-average precipitation was observed in the Northwest, where drought conditions worsened due to both record warmth and lack of precipitation. Oregon had its ninth driest June, while Washington had its third driest.
  • According to the June 30 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 25.9 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, up from 24.6 percent at the beginning of June. Drought conditions improved across the Southwest, Upper Midwest, and the Northeast, but worsened in the Northwest and Southeast. Drought conditions remain dire across California, with 46.7 percent of the state experiencing the worst category of drought (D4, exceptional).

U.S. climate highlights: Year-to-date (January-June)

Temperature

January-June 2015 Temperature Departure from Average Map
January-June 2015 Percent of Normal Precipitation 
Jan-Jun 2015 Temperature Departure from Average (top) 
and Precipitation Departure from Average (bottom)
  • Above-average January-June temperatures were observed from the Great Plains to the West Coast, as well as in FloridaCaliforniaNevada,Oregon, and Washington each had their warmest year-to-date on record. Eight additional states were much warmer than average, including Alaska which had its second warmest January-June in the 91-year period of record with a temperature 5.1°F above average. The California year-to-date temperature was 58.5°F, 5.2°F above average, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous record set just last year.
  • Below-average year-to-date temperatures were observed across the Midwest and Northeast, where MaineNew York, and Vermont were each much cooler than average. No state was record cold for the six-month period.

Precipitation

  • The year-to-date contiguous U.S. precipitation total was 16.53 inches, 1.22 inches above the 20th century average, the 19th wettest January-June on record and wettest since 1998.
  • Above-average precipitation was observed across the Great Plains, Southern Rockies, and Midwest where four states were much wetter than average. Texas had its wettest year-to-date on record with 24.04 inches, 10.70 inches above average. Below-average precipitation was observed across the West, Southeast, and Northeast. California had its fifth driest start to the year, while Oregon had its ninth driest.

Extremes

  • The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) for the year-to-date was 45 percent above average and the 13th highest value on record. On the national-scale, extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures and days with precipitation were much above average. The USCEI is an index that tracks extremes (falling in the upper or lower 10 percent of the record) in temperature, precipitation and drought across the contiguous United States.

For extended analysis of regional temperature and precipitation patterns, as well as extreme events, please see our full report that will be released on July 13th.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2015 at 1:37am
Temperatures in the Arctic are alarming ! The melt of landice still is increasing (Arctic, Himalaya) what results in rise of sealevel and landmass (less pressure from the ice and snow). This new distribution of pressure results in seismic activity. (But also more methane gas and other greenhouse gasses are being released). 

Climatechange offers oppertunities http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/june/50states-renewable-energy-060815.html and solar decreased activity may have their effects but if those effects will come in time is a big question.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 31 2015 at 9:55pm
http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2015/07/arctic-sea-ice-collapse-threatens-update-2.html

Due to warm ocean waters and to heatwaves on land that extended over the Arctic Ocean, while warming up rivers ending into the Arctic Ocean, the sea ice has taken a battering over the past few weeks, as illustrated by the images below. 


Above image shows the last bit of thick (5 m) sea ice in the Canadian Archipelago, which became dislodged on July 8, 2015. It looks set to be virtually gone by August 7, 2015, according to the 30-day Naval Research Laboratory animation below, and as also discussed in greater detail in a recent post.


The situation at the north-eastern tip of Greenland doesn't look much better, as illustrated by the image below.


The comparison image below also shows the north-eastern tip of Greenland on July 5, 2015 (top), and on July 31, 2015 (bottom). The bottom image shows water in many places, pushing the last pieces of thick ice into the Wandel Sea and Fram Strait .

[ click on image to enlarge ]
The thicker multi-year sea ice used to survive the melting season, giving the sea ice strength for the next year. Without multi-year sea ice, the Arctic will be in a bad shape in coming years.


So, will the sea ice collapse this year? Consider the following three points:
[ PIOMAS - click on image to enlarge ]
  1. Volume - The image on the right shows sea ice volume as calculated by PIOMAS at the University of Washington. The image shows that in June, volume was less than 2015 in only four years, i.e. 2010 through to 2013. However, the situation has deteriorated much in July 2015.
     
  2. Thickness - Volume is calculated by looking at both thickness and extent. Thickness is looking much worse than it did in the years 2012 through to 2014, as illustrated by above image. In my experience, sea ice thickness now hasn't looked as bad for the time of the year since records began, especially when taking the loss of multi-year ice into account, as also illustrated by above image.
     
  3. [ NSIDC - click on image to enlarge ]
  4. Extent - Sea ice extent around this time of year was worse only in about four years, i.e. in 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2012, as illustrated by the NSIDC image on the right. The image on the right shows the situation on July 30, 2015, when extent was about the same as it was by that time in 2013. However, extent didn't fall much from then on in 2013, while 2015 features very high sea surface temperatures and an El Niño that is still gaining in strength. In other words, sea ice extent looks likely to take a battering over the next few weeks.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the image below.


Above image shows a trendline (shaded area) based on satellite data from 1979-2014, with annual minimum volume figures calculated by PIOMAS. The shaded area points at a total disappearance of the sea ice as early as September 2018. The width of the shaded area reflects natural variability, but natural variability could be wider than that, as illustrated by the fact that minimum volume in the years 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2012 was lower than the shaded area. In other words, disappearance of the sea ice could occur even earlier than September 2018 and if things get really bad, collapse could even occur as early as September this year.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2015 at 10:14pm
There has been a 4.6 quake north of Siberia (were the American and Eur-Asian plates meet) http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us100030gr#general_summary. This is not the first quake in the Arctic and is related to melting of permafrost and methane-release. http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2013/09/earthquake-hits-laptev-sea.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 22 2015 at 4:09am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 23 2015 at 1:53am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JmrmwIyhAE

Gepubliceerd op 30 okt. 2013

A two part documentary presented by Sir David Attenborough - The Truth About Climate Change. Like ushttps://www.facebook.com/CarbonControl Follow us https://twitter.com/CarbonControl

Some extraordinary phenomena have taken place in recent times; Hurricane Katrina, the heat wave of 2003, polar bears swimming in search of ice and vast swarms of insects enveloping an African village. But are these isolated incidents or are they omens of a greater global change?

Sir David discovers that the world is warming at an unprecedented rate, and finds out why this is now far beyond any normal allowance for cyclical fluctuation. But are humans to blame? These changes are already in motion whatever we do now, but Sir David believes that we may be able to act to prevent a catastrophe. People around the world are having to adapt their way of life as the climate changes; the Inuit in the Arctic whose hunting is now limited, the Pacific island inhabitants forced to move as their homes disappear beneath the waves, and the Siberian homes slowly sinking into the permafrost. Sir David investigates some of the possible scenarios for the future, including rising sea-levels, insect plagues and an increase in diseases.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2015 at 9:59pm
http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2015/09/as-2015-smashes-temperature-records-its-hotter-than-you-think.html and https://www.facebook.com/AlamoProject

There is an El Niño in full swing which helps push average global temperatures higher, and records are being broken, but just how hot is it? For several years, we have heard that global warming has pushed temperatures higher by around 0.8 to 0.85 degrees Celsius (°C).

But in 2015, that number is not even close.

Even before this year's strong El Niño developed, 2015 was a hot year. The first few months of the year broken records for the hottest corresponding period in previous years all the way back to the start of the instrumental record in 1880. Each month, new records fell.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2015 at 10:42pm
Dutch Josh and all, I believe that Global Warming is real. But it is not caused by us humans. The Earth has always went through periods of Ice Ages and warming. The Archaeological records Prove that. Most of the Dinosaur Skeletons being found in this county are being found in North Dakota,Montana, and Canada. These are certainly not Tropical regions at this time,but this also proves that they once were Tropical in the Earths history. They may be again some day. But humans are NOT causing this   change.

It is Natural changes that have occurred on Earth for many eons. All of our Earth records prove that.

So us humans can either adapt to these changes or die off like so many species in the past have.We are better prepared today to adapt to these changes than at any other time in history. We can either adapt or kill each other off in wars for resources that is not necessary and closing industry which will cause wars of survival.The Earth has always went through these changes and we cannot cause them and we can not change them.

The search for the NORTHWEST Passage is one example. Sailors from many countries have died looking for the Northwest Passage because at some time in our Earths history it did exist,but it has not for hundreds of years because it has been frozen. Many thousands of sailors have died looking for this passage because it was handed down through word of mouth that it did exist at one time. It is starting to open again today. Some ships have made it through the passage that has been frozen for thousands of years,but it thawing again now.

We must adapt to the Global warming and not fight it. All of those who intend to do battle with the Earths natural changes will die. Those who chose to adapt and change with the Earths changes will live.Johnray1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 05 2015 at 11:47pm
Johnray1, I agree with you that there are natural changes in (local and global) climate. Continents have moved over millions of years from tropical regions to colder areas (or the other way round). Maybe poles have moved, the Earth-axis. Sun may have had some influence and the atmosphere did change over time.

However...the speed in wich climate changes the last decades is new in earths history. The only explanation 97% of science seem to find is that that is caused by us humans. 

It is good to discuss this, can humans have such an effect? But for what I understand humans have a role to play.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2015 at 3:18am
Both positions are right in my mind, the only question we could debate here is how much on each side?  The carboniferous period (when all the carbon we are releasing was laid down - also by living things like we are) was tropically warm almost everywhere.  This was a period without ice ages.  Let the carbon out and we return to that.  There are other cycles too which we could have no effect on, like solar cycles for example.

BUT THIS IS THE WRONG QUESTION.  

Whether or not we are to blame, we will not stop and neither will the natural cycles.  So stop arguing about how to stop it (both impossible and pointless) and start planning how to cope with it (both possible and vital).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2015 at 5:49am


Meteorologists say four tropical storms all raging at the same time, are a first

https://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2015/09/04/meteorologists-say-four-tropical-storms-raging-all-at-the-same-time-are-a-first/


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2015 at 6:43am
Technophobe, when people like http://guymcpherson.com/forum/index.php?topic=3195.165 are correct there is no way to "cope" with the climate change the coming decades. When you look at http://severe.worldweather.org/ and you see SEVEN tropical depressions/storms at the same time there is already a big problem. 

More warmth means more energy wich translates in stronger storms. Further temperature rise does not only mean more heatwaves but also more extreme dry or wet periods, more extreme stronger storms. 

If we would "cope" with more warmth by using more solar and windpower that might (on the short term) reduce the need for fossil fuels. 

I hope Guy McPherson(and a growing group of scientist) is wrong. That there is no rapid escalation due to global warming. But I do not see much evidence for that. 

I am not a scientist. What I understand from the IPCC on what to expect; the extreme weather, could be on our doorstep (and not in the year 2100 or so). Land ice is melting full speed, higher sea levels translating in more flooding. 

Before our planet gets to hot for foodproduction there will be a "climate-crisis"; already wars in the Middle East are partialy "water-wars". Water crisis you might expect soon in Asia with melting of glacier-ice in the Himalayas. (Leaving India, China etc. without enough drinking water). Rising sealevel and Bangla Desh do not mix. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OriginalHappyCamper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2015 at 6:59am
Continents have moved over millions of years 

The above statement is a theory with flawed assumptions.

I would ask that the readers of this blog look at the below opposing view and reply on this link as to the
 validity of the age of the earth as put forth by Scientists.

Watch the whole video. Yes it is the creationists view, with little Bible references mostly common sense.

IN order to understand a theory we all need to look at both sides, then choose a view to follow.

The speaker has his doctors degree in zoology and  has been the professor that other folks received their doctors degree under.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2015 at 11:34am
It's a-coming, and as Techno pointed out, we're too full of ourselves to make the changes we need to reverse things, so we'd better start adapting while we can.
Personally, I think widespread famine is in our near future as populations reach unsustainable levels and food production takes a hit. About the time climate change starts affecting the delicate balance that determines the locations of the bread baskets and rice bowls of the world, the oceans are expected to be fished practically clean of food fish (2048 at current estimates), and we'll reach somewhere between nine and eleven billion - a population that the UN believes will require 70% more food than we can chemically force from the land now.
The next few decades are going to be interesting - in the Chinese proverb way. Not good....


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2015 at 2:51pm
It all comes down to simple physics, just writ large.

Put a pan on the stove to heat and put one drop of food coloring, gravy browning or any other pigment in one spot.  So you can see what is happening.  As it heats up, the water moves faster and faster.

As the world heats up both the seas and the winds (like any other fluid) do the same.  This brings tropical storms, thunderstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes and an overall climate-pattern change.  Sea levels rise as well.  Isostatic readjustment increases geological stresses too.

So building damage, flooding, drought, crop failure, earthquakes, volcanism and resultant famine/diaspora.

And all of the above writ very large.

Each one of the above could be mitigated far better with forward planning.

Building damage - better design
Flooding - more levees, polders and buildings on stilts (polders are far easier to build now, before sea level rise)
Drought - better collection, transport and storage
Crop failure - stores, greater variety, gm and more appropriate strains/species to the new local weather
earthquakes - more reinforced concrete/careful modern civil engineering
volcanism - move away!
Famine - birth control BEFORE THE PROBLEMS WORSTEN


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2015 at 3:25pm
Dutch Josh,it is not happening to fast.Remember the fresh Lilly s that were found in the Mammoth in the Siberia Tundra. Also remember that massive amount of mastodons that are still frozen along the Yukon River. They frozen so quickly and so fast and so recently that you can still smell them rotting in the summer time if you float the Yukon River.

If the Gulf Stream is suddenly cut off,the freeze can happen in days and maybe hours. The experiments done by scientist said that the Gulf stream can be shut off by too much fresh water interring the ocean and that is what is happening now.They said that the shut off of the Gulf stream was so fast that it really surprised them.Johnray1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2015 at 2:59am
Johnray1, I remember the stories of animals "suddenly" being frozen (as if they were caught up in a freezing blizzard, very sudden change). The melting of landice in/on Greenland already is weakening the Gulfstream. That might mean less extreme weather, on the short term, for Western Europe.

OriginalHappyCamper; 97% of scientist can be wrong, sometimes a more dissident view might turn out to be more correct. The 97% of scientist seem to agree that humans are effecting the climate. To what level they disagree about. 

jacksdad, I remember seeing a "model" on ZeroHedge on economics collapse. First step proberbly would be an increase in births, followed by a sharp rise of mortality. The timeframe in wich the climate-crisis would unfold is put by scientists between 2030 and 2100. Also the effects differ a lot, Guy Mc Pherson (and some others) seem to give up all hope (CH4=methane is making things that bad that there is no way of stopping things http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2015/09/arctic-sea-ice-collapse-threatens-update-8.html and http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2015/09/methane-monster-2-demise-of-the-arctic.html. On the other hand there is the IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/. The problem I have with the IPCC is that there data is outdated and their conclusions are a compromise. They are way behind reality. 
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2015 at 4:31am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-17/decades-long-megadrought-looms-entire-us-lake-powell-runs-dry-nasa-warns

With the number of people living in the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains, and the volume of water they need, having increased rapidly over recent decades - and, with NASA scientists expecting these trends to continue for years to come - the current severe drought combined with thetapping of the Lake Powell's water at what many consider to be an unsustainable level, has reduced its levels to only about 42% of its capacity.

 

 

Forecasting that there is an 80 percent chance of an extended drought in the area between 2050 and 2099 unless aggressive steps are taken to mitigate the impacts of climate change, the researchers said their results point to a challenging - and remarkably drier - future.

As Reuters reports, scientists from NASA and Cornell and Columbia universities warned earlier this year that the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains regions are likely to be scorched by a decades-long "megadrought" during the second half of this century if climate change continues unabated.


See also http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201508 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 30 2015 at 10:54am
A question for all you global warming alarmists...

How did the Vikings thrive?   And also maybe more important... how come most of the evidence of their civilization is now covered by permafrost?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2015 at 1:23pm
You do understand that nobody's denying that our climate changes over time, right? It's the rate of change that we're seeing now that should make everyone alarmed.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/29/carney-warns-of-risks-from-climate-change-tragedy-of-the-horizon


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2015 at 11:02pm
@Deep Thinker, do you have a source for your question. I do notknow of any viking-findings in perma-frost. But there are a lot of "OOPS" Out Of Place objectS that can put questionmarkson wath is accepted as science. Science in my view is always a developing story. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2015 at 12:06am
DutchJosh permafrost might have been an exaggeration (I need to do some research).   But the point I was trying to make is that the vikings lived mostly north of the Arctic Circle or very close to it... and their civilizations thrived during very temperate climate.  The viking civilization would never had a chance to develop if it had to deal with a modern climate... it is WAY to cold.

As a matter of fact our climate has been warmer through most of last 10,000 years than it is today.   Historically speaking we are actually in a cold spell climate wise.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2015 at 12:17am
This my take on climate change...

I know climate change happens.   However I am skeptical of CO2 involvement in it.   Even if CO2 causes warming nature produces WAY more CO2 than we do.

However I am very concerned by "alarmists".    I think they are dangerous to to our prosperity, economy, and general way of life.  Even if global warming is real, I don't think it is worth destroying our way of life for a slightly cooler planet.

Also I am not convinced that a warmer world with more co2 would be a bad thing.  Such a  world would be much more productive.  Imagine all the prime real estate in Siberia!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2015 at 1:33am
80% chance of a drought 35 years from now??? How can you take that crap serriously?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2015 at 1:35am
Deep Thinker, alarmists should have a better plan. I am in favor of more durable energy. Fossil fuels are causing to much problems. It would be good for most economies if they could do a lot more with less energy. The US and EU should not be dependent off oil and gas from Russia or the middle east. 

The reason why vikings swarmed out of Scandinavia proberbly had to do with to much population for what their own economy could produce. For your information, most of Scandinavia is south of the arctic circle. Their economy 'improved" by trade and robbery more southward (even Nort Africa Russia comes from Rossia which proberbly had to do with the red hair of the vikings. There are still a lot of questions about how their economy worked)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2015 at 1:49am
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2015 at 4:09am
Increasing the amount of atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppm to 400 ppm in a couple of centuries with no expectation of change is the corporate line put out by the main culprits and their hired lackeys at Fox News, the Heartland Institute, et al. How can you honestly take that seriously, especially when following the money always leads us right back to the people causing the problem in the first place?
It's simple cause and effect - the sun drives our weather and climate with the meager amount of solar radiation we receive (and manage to hang on to) 93 million miles out. Substantially change the atmosphere that's responsible for capturing that heat, and commonsense dictates that the climate will change. And we know that methane is a far more effective greenhouse gas than CO2, and your new real estate in Siberia is hanging on to massive reserves in it's permafrost. But not for long.
It's not alarmist to worry about a climate changing far faster than we've ever witnessed before - it's choosing not to put your head in a nice, cozy hole in the sand and letting future generations figure out the mess we've handed them. When the governor of the Bank of England - one of the most conservative financial institutions in the world - is quoted as saying that "... the challenges currently posed by climate change pale in significance compared with what might come", it behooves us to pay attention. These guys are not given to "alarmist" views without very good reason.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2015 at 8:49am
I am sorry to derail your guys tread :)   I do enjoy the articles posted here.  While I am skeptical, I am open minded and like to learn.

I hope I don't offend anyone but I want to see how well you guys understand the science behind climate.   So let me ask a quetion...

In the real world what green house gas has the most profound effect on our environment?  (Just a clue it isn't CO2 and it is not CH4)


I think fossil fuels are finite.  I personally think we still have a huge untapped supply but the supply at some point is limited.  Of course we need to find different fuels.    The main reason for me is pollution.   Pollution kills people, and all we are worried about is CO2.  I feel that alarmists confuse people when they talk about pollution and green house gases interchangeably   THEY ARE NOT THE SAME THING.  One is demonstrably always bad.   The other is much more complex.

I know I am going to get flamed but I want to say it anyways....    The only way with current technology to produce economically viable zero emission fuel is with nuclear.   We can even use Thorium.   It is MUCH safer than more traditional ways.   The only problem is it isn't dual use, you can't make bombs out of it so TPTB don't like it.

MTA: why would you get climate advice from a banker?  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2015 at 10:42am
Actually, on the subject of Thorium, we're solidly on the same page. Liquid Thorium salt reactors show fantastic potential without the problems of dealing with massive amounts of radioactive waste, they're inherently safe, and the US has huge natural reserves. The problem is that decades old legislation labels Thorium as toxic, so any that is found has to be properly "disposed" of. It's often found with rare earth minerals too, and they have to be disposed of because of the perceived Thorium contamination. That leaves China with a stranglehold on rare earth minerals, and consequently the markets they supply. As you mentioned, the biggest hurdle that proponents of Thorium have to get over is also one of it's advantages - it doesn't supply the raw materials for nuclear weapons production. In the eyes of the military, that's a huge deal breaker.
There are many, many greenhouse gases, of which CFCs are probably considered the most potent. You have to look at the ones that pose the most immediate threat, and CO2 and methane have the greatest potential to cause problems given that we apparently have no will as yet to curtail their release. Permafrost melting also raises the specter of even greater release of both.
Don't worry - you haven't derailed anything. We welcome debate. There's been a similar thread on this topic that has run on AFT for years and never reached consensus. It'd be boring if it did.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2015 at 9:39am

Miranda Devine: Perth electrical engineer’s discovery will change climate change debate

“Yes, CO2 has an effect, but it’s about a fifth or tenth of what the IPCC says it is. CO2 is not driving the climate; it caused less than 20 per cent of the global warming in the last few decades”

http://www.ntnews.com.au/lifestyle/miranda-devine-perth-electrical-engineers-discovery-will-change-climate-change-debate/story-fnk0b1ks-1227555674611


Here is a high level mathematician saying the same things I am saying.  
Within the human caused climate change crowd...  you need to be very careful who you listen to.   There is VERY strong confirmation bias.   If you don't support the theory on global warming you loose funding.   Nobody will pay for a study that says everything is fine.   If you have a study suggesting the world will soon end, people will fund it!  My suggestion for understanding this subject... listen to as many extremely smart people talk about it that are not corrupted by the IPCC.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2015 at 3:49pm

A Torrent of Errors in David Evans Case Against Global Warming


http://debunkingdenialism.com/2012/06/23/a-torrent-of-errors-in-david-evans-case-against-global-warming/


I was a LONG time climate change denier myself
what changed my mind
wasn't the political pundits or pseudo-scientists

I bought a college level chemistry text book
and read up on the carbon cycle
the minute I finished my study
I said "oh sh_t we're screwed"
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