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Climate-change were you are.

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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 5:16pm
The winters in Chicago use to be long and brutal....temperatures down to -26º C (-15º F) used to be fairly typical.  I would usually go fishing through the ice and have done this for about 50 of my 63 years on this planet! 

Alas, winters seem to be growing warmer and warmer....some winters, the ice barely holds up to being walked upon, or it all melts in an atypical February rainstorm.  

During the spring and summer, the Chicago region receives much heavier rainfall, leading to damaging flooding with extensive property losses.  Being the US midwest, we have our share of tornados and hailstorms!  Certain areas not far from where we live were completely destroyed by massive tornados...my wife and I nearly drove through this one.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 10:22pm
I am also caught up in the heat wave affecting Europe...yesterday our well ran dry. The well has a hand pump that I have only used for watering the garden and flushing the toilet.    It has been the hottest and driest summer since we bought this property 12 years ago.

We knew that the previous owner (the ones that built the house) had trouble with the well running dry and went onto the town supply (which is still functioning). I did not expect to drain the well with a hand pump.

We still have a little water in a pond (natural dip in the rocks, with a extra dam that I just re-cemented to try and stop all its leaks). so the plants are good for a few days, and yesterday the well seemed to be filling at about 5 litres an hour.)

No rain in our local 10 day weather forecast. 

I cannot say if this is a long term climate change effect, as the island communities here have always had a risk of summer drought.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 17 2018 at 9:47pm
No severe weather here in the Netherlands-just warm/hot (no heatwave-but most likely we will get a national heatwave next week)and no rain expected the rest of this month. 

This is effecting watersupply/pressure-demand is (much) bigger than what can be produced in some area's. So-since they are on the end of supply-lines some northern regions of our country have to deal with a pressure drop in water.

Since we are part of the EU, and Germany, France get a lot of rain in some regions, on a European level watersupply-for the moment-should not be a major problem (yet).

Waterlevel in the rivers is low-it will effect shipping-but since we have good rails-and-roads there may be alternatives for logistics. Also cooling powerplants most likely not getting problematic soon. 

We had a major wildfire north of Arnhem in 1976-we were getting close to evacuating northern parts of town, shooting wild animals in the Zoo-then. Wildfires are a very major risk-growing day by day. 

Links-wildfire in Sweden, Algae in gulf of Finland

http://www.euromomo.eu/ No increase in mortality yet in EU
heat-island effect in the Netherlands. In urban area's temperature may be several degrees above the surrounding area's. (In my area there is more water than during the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_heat_wave. This may bring temperatures down a little. (see also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_American_heat_wave)

DJ-I think we are in a global climate crisis and may have to deal with weather becoming even more extreme. International cooperation is needed.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 31 2018 at 10:41pm
July 2018 did break records for drought and hours of sunshine (average 8mm of rain over 330 hours of sunshine). Temperature-wise july 2018 ended in 3rd place (20,7C 2006=22.3 and 1994=21,4C).

The effects of lack of rain are becoming dramatic-we are beyond the 1976 record for that. Also two days in a row we had places with temperatures of 38,2 and 38.1. The (1944) record is 38.6C-most likely it will get broken soon. 

Harvest-wise this weather is a total disaster; farmers are getting close to bankruptcy-with no real hope for the coming month bringing weather improvement harvests will fail, farmers will stop their farms.
Also since there is hardly any grass cows (etc) are now in the stables eating what was meant for the coming winter-a lot of those cows will not make it to the winter and be slaughtered.

Rivers are at extreme low levels-eventhough not yet record breaking. There is more rain in parts of Germany and France giving some water to the riversystems. Still sweet water in the Netherlands is now used:
-to keep the salt (sea) water from moving in land
-to stop dykes etc. from drying out and collapsing.

Trees are dying here on a larger scale-breaking up. At several places municipalities stopped giving young trees water-they may get replaced (with imported trees) after the drought. 

(Rail)ways are effected, bridges stay closed. With also the waterways at low level logistics are effected. 

Energy production is still working, also drinking water is not yet a problem. Still due to ground drying out there seems to be more break-ups in the underground pipelines. 

Wildfires are still limited-the fire departments (etc) are very on top of situations.

Statistics do not yet show an increase in mortality-but historic data shows increase in mortality during long warm/hot periods. A sad fact is that-due to spending cuts on the care for elderly and chronicly ill-the most vulnarables may be found dead after weeks, months. 

Most people are unaware of the dramatic situation we are in. The Netherlands is the second largest exporter of agriculture products in the world-after the US. With this global heatwave food production is getting in a crisis. This will get much worse than Dutch cheese becoming expensive-famine may be around the corner for some poor regions. (The Arab spring was drought related, food prices doubling in 2010)

Dealing with this extreme weather "as an incident" not taking serious steps for a more durable society will only worsen the situation further. 

Sealevelrise is speeding up-most likely in a dramatic way. I do expect hurricanes to get to Europe-in combination with these droughts fertile land may get eroded, our watersystem may not be able to switch from extreme droughts to extreme rainfall in just a few hours.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8k9K-jhIT4 Robert Scribler on the heatwave bringing temperatures of 26C on the Alaskan-Arctic coast....
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 4:13am
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

In pictures: Australia's drought seen from the air - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-45043299
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 6:25am
Carbon ... you beat me to posting that....the pictures are kind of depression  (=polite speak for very depressing).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 10:16am
My problem with Climate Change is China and India. We have so many countries not just the U.S. that are doing so much more pollution causing Climate Change it makes the U.S. look good. Until the whole world gets on board we are sunk. You will never get China or India to stop polluting.   

One thing I can tell you I would not purchase any property near the ocean!!! I worry about the high plains having no water also. But it is what it is until the world comes to it's senses.


I also believe there could be a reason for all the climate change but that is another subject I do not want to go into.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 11:43am
There is more than one reason for climate change - not just us.  Although I now think we are the biggest of the causes.

Don't live near the ocean or at the bottom of a valley is absolutely the most vital rule!.

China used to be beaten by the USA in CO2 emissions, NOT ANY MORE!!  Now it produces nearly TWICE what the USA does.  Mind you it has 5 times the population so there is no room for complacency.  Per capita, the Chinese produce almost 1/3 the CO2 an American does. 

But rather than apportion blame, which is in my opinion the wrong approach, we need to protect ourselves from the effects.  I may lambast Trump for his stance on climate change, but he is hardly unique in this!  Overall the world may cut its emissions down a little, but it is not going to stop.

None of our politicians, parties, focus groups or government administrations are going to save us.  I personally don't think God will save us from this either (Revelations 11:18). 

So use your brains and listen to FluMom.  Get yourselves ready.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 2:16pm
i live about 2 kms from the ocean.............

we all screwed................

UNLESS there is  a pandemic that knocks about 75% of the   population

people hate me because i'm a realist.............

or can someone give me a better idea

because i can't for the life of me see any other way ,

even if we stopped using planes ,trains and automobiles TODAY 

it won't stop the climate change thats happening NOW


12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 2:40pm

World Population Growth

Humans had been around for tens of thousands of years by the year 1 A.D. when the Earth's population was an estimated 200 million. It hit the billion mark in 1804 and doubled by 1927.

It doubled again in less than 50 years to four billion in 1975

YearPopulation
1200 million
1000275 million
1500450 million
1650500 million
1750700 million
18041 billion
18501.2 billion
19001.6 billion
19272 billion
19502.55 billion
19552.8 billion
19603 billion
19653.3 billion
19703.7 billion
19754 billion
19804.5 billion
19854.85 billion
19905.3 billion
19955.7 billion
19996 billion
20066.5 billion
20096.8 billion
20117 billion
20258 billion
20439 billion
208310 billion
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 06 2018 at 9:59pm
http://www.estofex.org/ :

A level 2 was issued for France, Belgium, the Netherlands and NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes. 
-
A broad level 1 area was issued for parts of Spain, France, Switzerland, Austria, Luxembourg, N Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Denmark mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes. 

DJ, We are getting to the end of our record breaking-1 month-regional heatwave. National we are at the end of a second heatwave for 2018. 

Today we may get close to 38.6C in some regions, still the record for the Netherlands since 1944. 

The drought did bring massive starvation to wild animals, trees. It will effect harvest. 


European mortality bulletin week 30, 2018

Link to printable version

Overall, the pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show normal expected mortality levels for the participating countries. However, there are signs of excess mortality in a number of countries in the north of Europe, especially among the elderly, which could be related to the current heat wave affecting many European countries.


DJ; The "over-mortality" more deaths than statistics would expect-will get clear within a few months. Due to spending-cuts on care a lot of people in need do not get care, may be found dead in their homes after some time. 

Also there seems to be an increase in accidents etc. that are not-statisticly-related to these extreme weather events. (It is a "slow disaster")

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2018 at 10:45pm
Hard to tell if it is climate change or just a summer heat wave, but some dire effects here (Finland):

Originally posted by YLE, Finnish Public Radio/TV YLE, Finnish Public Radio/TV wrote:

After a dry summer, many farmers in the south and west predict that they will only harvest half of their normal yield. This bodes poorly for Finland's livestock.



On one news report a farmer from another island reported that this winter she would have to send half her dairy cows to be slaughtered, as they are already using the winter feed.

Also, in our village, there is an old man who has kept one small hay field and a very nice cottage (used by relatives for summer holidays).    In other years he has just had the field cut and let the hay rot down.  This year for the first time in the twelve years I have been here the field was harvested by a farmer and the fodder collected. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2018 at 1:33am
ABC News: NSW Government says entire state in drought, new DPI figures reveal full extent of big dry.

And this is our Winter......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2018 at 2:23pm
Here too. Our well just ran dry for the first ever time.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2018 at 4:12pm
Carbon 20 is correct when showing the population chart. We are doomed folks too many people too many countries coming out of the dark ages in Africa and too much pollution from India and China. Everyone gives India and China a way out of the Carbon agreement which does nothing but get money from the U.S. to make others wealthy on the U.S. workers backs. Why Trump will win again in 2020!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2018 at 10:38am
I have a feeling that the population thing will fix itself, with or without our help.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2018 at 2:19pm
its a BIG taboo the population thing,

how Dare we even think that we are the problem!!!!!!!!!!!!!!,

i'v seen it on here recently ,

War ,Fammin, or Pestilence is the only way we will be thinned out as a species ,

it will never happen by any other means,

you should have seen the fuss when plastic bags were stopped at the supermarkets over here ,

can you see people only being allowed one 1000cc car or no cars per family ,No 4x4 , one overseas flight every 5 years ,a cap on your electricity usage ,say 1 kilowatt a month ,,

Flumom you are wrong to point fingers,at anyone country ,

the UAE are one of the biggest emitters ,

and guess what they produce:


Petrol,Urea, fertilizer,pesticides,and Weedkiller...........

that we in the WEST use like there is no tomorrow,

the Human race needs to have a good long look at itsself...............



12 Monkeys...............
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2018 at 6:53pm
I don't disagree. Many of the liberal Actors for Climate Change agreement have huge yachts, private air planes, multiple houses, cars that eat gas. This is a messed up world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2018 at 9:59pm
Another side of climate change for the Netherlands is that "since we had Spanish weather here" a lot of Dutch had their hollidays in their own country (Spain did see 20% less Dutch tourists this year ! Tourism in the Netherlands is up 7%).

We did have (some) rain-a lot of grass turned green again-but there will be some damage to nature. (We did have overpopulation of wild swines, deer, etc. in several area's. Due to lack of food a lot of those animals died. Nature is not friendly.)

The rivers are at their lowest levels ever-almost. Salt water from the North Sea is moving in-also effecting agriculture. Speaking of agri-culture-wine is doing very well here !

The Dutch are most active in "moving" from all Europeans; going on bike to school or job, taking a walk during the break. We have good cycle-paths here, and that is still growing. On the short-term tourism will grow-add to the almost 3% economic growth this year.

If you are thinking of a job in the Netherlands-we have over 250.000 vacencies-from healthcare to truckdrivers, building etc.

Discussion on population is another subject. With better education (especialy for girls/women) birth-rates go down fast. I (DJ) may even start a discussion on gender-in-equality; the better the position of women in a society the lower the birthrate ?
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2018 at 10:17pm
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

New South Wales battles dozens of winter bushfires - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-45203946
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