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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Deadly Yellow Fever virus on brink of spreading.

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jacksdad View Drop Down
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    Posted: August 18 2016 at 12:33pm

A deadly African virus is on the brink of spreading to Europe and the Americas amid the largest outbreak in more than 30 years, a charity has warned.

Yellow fever can cause bleeding from the ears, eyes and nose, organ failure, jaundice and death in the most severe cases, and is considered such a threat that many African nations refuse entry to anyone who has not been vaccinated.

Yet despite those regulations, thousands of suspected cases have been reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) after the disease crossed the border from Angola. 


Angola yellow fever outbreak spreads.

Other cases have already been reported in Uganda and in Kenya, and earlier this year China notified the World Health Organisation (WHO) of 11 cases imported by migrant workers coming back from Africa.

Save The Children has dispatched a rapid response unit of experts to DRC to assist with an emergency vaccination programme. They will support a government drive to inoculate half a million people in the capital of Kinshasa in just 10 days, starting on Wednesday. 

Heather Kerr, Save the Children's country director for the DRC, told The Independent the urgent action was being taken to prevent the “worrying” prospect of the disease spreading further.

But the charity has concerns that there are just seven million doses of yellow fever vaccine in global emergency stocks – not enough to cover the capital Kinshasa’s population of 10 million, let alone cope with an international outbreak.

Health workers in DRC have already been ordered to dilute the vaccine to one-fifth of its normal strength in order to help stocks stretch further. This provides cover for up to one year – normally, the vaccine works for life.

Ms Kerr said there had been nearly 100 confirmed deaths from yellow fever in DRC since the disease entered the country, with hundreds more deaths in Angola and thousands of suspected cases across the region as a whole. She added that the current numbers were seen as “conservative”.

The WHO warned the figures could rise to 10 to 50 times higher, describing it as the worst outbreak since 1992, when it took six years to contain the virus and more than 4,500 people died. Death rates in yellow fever outbreaks can be as high as 50 per cent, though the current strain is estimated to have killed around 20 per cent of those infected. 

The virus can only be passed on by the Aedes mosquito, the same vector as for Zika and dengue, but once it arrives in a region it can in theory be spread anywhere where the insects are present. That includes most of Latin America, the US, Asia, northern Australia and much of southern Europe.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/deadly-yellow-fever-virus-on-brink-of-spreading-to-europe-and-americas-charity-warns-a7193371.html



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 18 2016 at 4:01pm
CBS News August 16, 2016, 4:58 PM

African yellow fever epidemic could go global, experts warn

Three-year-old Jonathan Kangu sits on his hospital bed in Kinshasa, Congo, on Tuesday, July 19, 2016, suffering from symptoms of yellow fever, including yellowed eyes. Because of a shortage of diagnostic materials, doctors were not able to confirm whether or not he has yellow fever, as the symptoms are similar to those for many other diseases in the region. Jonathan ultimately recovered and was discharged, but without knowing for sure whether he had yellow fever, it was unclear if his family should be prioritized to receive the vaccine. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay)
Jerome Delay, AP

As the largest yellow fever epidemic in decades continues to sweep through the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Angola, the charity Save the Children is warning that it could soon spread to Europe, Asia, and the Americas.

As a last ditch effort to prevent further spread through Africa -- and potentially the globe -- the organization is launching an emergency vaccine program in the Congolese capital of Kinshasa. Since the global stockpile is so low, the vaccines will contain a fifth of the normal dose in order to reach as many children and families as possible.

"There is no known cure for yellow fever and it could go global," Heather Kerr, Save the Children's country director for the DRC, said in a statement. "The mass vaccination campaign in Kinshasa needs to take place now so that we can try and stop Yellow Fever spreading by land and air to more cities in Africa and across the world."

Yellow fever is a hemorrhagic disease that causes fever, headache, jaundice, muscle pain, nausea, vomiting and fatigue. A small percentage of people infected develop a more severe form of the disease, with about half of these people dying within seven to 10 days, according to the World Health Organization.

The virus is spread through the bites of mosquitoes, mainly the Aedes Aegypti, the same mosquito that carries Zika and dengue.

To date, the outbreak has claimed nearly 500 lives, with thousands more cases suspected. The WHO warns that those numbers could climb as many as 10 to 50 times higher.

"This outbreak response has been complex and challenging," Tarik Jasarevic of the WHO, told CBS News. "For the first time, WHO and other partners are dealing with an outbreak of yellow fever in a dense, urban setting. The changing global situation in the past 20 years, including the rapid rise of urbanization, increased mobility between large cities in Africa, and new environmental and climatic factors mean an increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases spreading internationally."

A full dose of the vaccine provides lifetime immunity from yellow fever. The smaller, so-called "fractionalized" dose provides stop-gap immunity for about a year.

The global emergency stockpile of yellow fever vaccines is normally held at 6 million doses, according to the WHO.

"Due to the unprecedented scale of the ongoing outbreak, the stockpile has been depleted multiple times this year. Prior to this outbreak, no more than 4 million doses had been used to control an individual epidemic," Jasarevic said. "Since January, more than 27 million doses have been deployed from this stockpile to Angola and DRC."

He points out that the yellow fever vaccine takes a minimum of six months to produce, making it logistically challenging to respond quickly to an increase in demand.

At this time, WHO has not declared the current outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). However, it has decided that it is a "serious public health event that warrants intensified national action and enhanced international support."

"This outbreak is manageable if we can protect enough people with the vaccine," Jasarevic said. "The aim is to prevent a PHEIC with a strong response."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/yellow-fever-epidemic-could-go-global-experts-warn/



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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2016 at 5:02am
Good job JD.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2016 at 7:32am
Hopefully we don't hear too much more about this, A.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2016 at 11:29am
Roger that JD.  Although, seems like every time officials or experts warn that it will spread to other countries, it usually does.  To what end is always up in the air.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2016 at 10:19am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_fever

Yellow fever causes 200,000 infections and 30,000 deaths every year,[3] with nearly 90% of these occurring in Africa.[5] Nearly a billion people live in an area of the world where the disease is common.[3] It is common in tropical areas of South America andAfrica, but not in Asia.[3][7] Since the 1980s, the number of cases of yellow fever has been increasing.[3][8] This is believed to be due to fewer people being immune, more people living in cities, people moving frequently, and changing climate.[3] The disease originated in Africa, from where it spread to South America through the slave trade in the 17th century.[1] Since the 17th century, several major outbreaks of the disease have occurred in the Americas, Africa, and Europe.[1] In the 18th and 19th centuries, yellow fever was seen as one of the most dangerous infectious diseases.[1] In 1927 yellow fever virus became the first human virus to be isolated.[4][9]


(DJ) Just like the zika-virus yellow fever will become a bigger problem due to the wider spread of the insects that spread the disease. Climate change means that mosquitos can show up in area's that up till recently were to cold for them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2016 at 1:26pm
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

(DJ) Just like the zika-virus yellow fever will become a bigger problem due to the wider spread of the insects that spread the disease. Climate change means that mosquitos can show up in area's that up till recently were to cold for them.


Absolutely right, Josh. This is one of those consequences of climate change that people forget about. We now have Asian Tiger mosquitoes in SoCal - a region where they were unknown a few years ago.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2016 at 1:28pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Roger that JD.  Although, seems like every time officials or experts warn that it will spread to other countries, it usually does.  To what end is always up in the air.  


With all the wishful thinking in the world, I think you're right. Tropical diseases may well be showing up on our doorsteps in ever increasing numbers in years to come.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2016 at 10:20pm
On climate change https://www.thomhartmann.com/blog/2016/08/transcript-climate-change-madhouse-effect-michael-mann-9-august-16

People live in cities-very concentrated and thgerefore very vulnarable https://twitter.com/valaafshar/status/767148118139887616

Since yellow fever is spread by mosquitos-just like several other illnesses (zika, malaria, dengue) if the mosquito is effected you can effect the spread of these diseases. http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/94/8/16-020816.pdf?ua=1

(DJ) Virusses moving away from their original grounds to places with other temperatures, humidity etc will adept to those circumstances. This adaptation itself can effect the healtheffects of those virusses. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 28 2016 at 9:50pm
A good "Photo essay" here: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37183691

The one that shocked me most has the caption: "A worldwide shortage of the vaccine, which takes up to 18 months to produce, has forced those behind the campaign to improvise... "  (emphasis mine).

18 months to produce! That is a very long led time and means that this outbreak could be a problem for a year or more.
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