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Declassified assumptions

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Kilt2 View Drop Down
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    Posted: September 16 2013 at 4:40pm

DoD Declassifies Flu Pandemic Plan Containing Sobering Assumptions
http://feedly.com/k/18oydcY

An anonymous reader writes "The Department of Defense has just declassified a copy of its 2009 Concept of Operations Plan for an Influenza Pandemic. Among the Plan's scary yet reasonable assumptions are that in the United States, such a pandemic will kill 2 percent of the infected population, or about 2 million people. The plan also assumes that a vaccine won't be available for at least 4 to 6 months after confirmation of sustained human transmission, and that the weekly vaccine manufacturing capability will only produce 1 percent of the total US vaccine required. State and local governments will be overwhelmed, and civilian mortuary operations will require military augmentation. Measures such as limiting public gatherings, closing schools, social distancing, protective sequestration and masking will be required to limit transmission and reduce illness and death. International and interstate transportation will be restricted to contain the spread of the virus. If a pandemic starts outside the US, it will enter the country at multiple locations and spread quickly to other parts of the country. A related document, CONPLAN 3591-09, was released by DoD in 2010."

And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CStackDrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2013 at 10:00pm
^They use a case fatality rate of 2%, which is what the 1918 Spanish Flu was estimated to inflict upon the population.  

I think that is erroneous, as many to most of the fatalities of the Spanish Flu were from secondary bacterial pneumonia and other causes that we can treat in modern times.   Still, I admire the work that was put into this, thanks for sharing! 

A Pl in the United States will result in 30 % (approximately 90 million) of the population becoming ill, 50 % of those ill seeking treatment, 3 % (approximately 3 million) of those infected being hospitalized, and a case fatality rate of 2 % (approximately 2 million) of those infected over the course of the pandemic.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2013 at 1:53am
I agree 100% a rate of mortality RoM of 2% is way too low.

But its interesting none the less.


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arirish View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2013 at 2:46pm
There won't be 3 million hospitalized because there's very little surge capacity. They will be in tents in the parking lot like in Texas back in 09!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SEAWOLFE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2013 at 7:11pm
Noted that the plan is dated 2009. That's kinda old. Does give some thinking of the authors. Lots has probably changed by now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2013 at 7:51pm
This is just my opinion.
In 2006 H5N1 even scared the U S government into action and they did a study and came up with the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza. It was on the internet for awhile but because they were afraid talk of quarantine and travel restrictions would panic the public it was removed until 2009. It has been updated several times since.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2013 at 6:28pm
I agree wholeheartedly.

The strike rate would be 25% and the RoM would be 30% or more.

This is such a watered down version but its a leak - its just been let out - so either its an attempt to not care people with the reality or they are really stupid.




And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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