Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Ebola in the United States - 2015 |
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Medclinician
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Posted: June 27 2015 at 10:45am |
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Currently centers across the U.S. are monitoring to stop the spread of Ebola here.
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/idepc/diseases/vhf/monitoring.html http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/idepc/diseases/vhf/monitoringweekly.pdf It has been stated or implied that there will not be a widespread outbreak of Ebola in the U.S. because of medical services here, sanitation standards,containment, and greater caution being used to bury or dispose of the dead. However despite all these precautions there are currently some suspected case in the U.S. as well as confirmed cases of Ebola in the past. The first was in Texas with the possibility the strain had mutated and become more virulent. http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/s930-ebola-confirmed-case.html The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed today, through laboratory tests, the first case of Ebola to be diagnosed in the United States in a person who had traveled to Dallas, Texas from Liberia. The patient did not have symptoms when leaving West Africa, but developed symptoms approximately four days after arriving in the U.S. on Sept. 20. Soon there were not one, but eight cases http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/17/us/ebola-us-list/index.html As of Friday, eight confirmed cases of Ebola have been or are being treated in the United States, and one U.S. citizen died abroad, having never returned to the States. Dozens of others are being monitored or are in some form of quarantine. Then there was one - and the spin began - that the fear of Ebola was worse than the reality. This has been a common theme justifying denial and inaccurate cases and deaths, even before the Flu Pandemic of 2009. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/10/24/there-is-now-only-one-confirmed-case-of-ebola-in-the-united-states/ The fear that surrounds Ebola — a disease that is incredibly deadly and not very contagious, a plague that has killed thousands yet is difficult to contract — is understandably exacerbated whenever a new case is diagnosed. The realization that one person contracted it opens up the possibility that other people may have gotten it as well; the fact that people are rarely stationary reminds us that a person with the virus can board a commercial flight, ride in a subway, take a taxi and otherwise exist in the same world as you and everyone you know and love. At the same time, anxiety breeds paranoia and paranoia begets panic, clouding the realities on the ground. All of which is to say that, as of Friday morning, there is now only one confirmed case of Ebola in the United States. Then there were no more reported cases, yet there may soon be some to report. It has been said the mutation is less than was previously found in several research studies to be as great as 200% times normal. If the information out there, which is being heavily spread on the mass media, is not accurate and cases are not being reported, this thread will continue and we may sadly live to see Ebola spread in America. Up for debate is whether the "regular hospitals" are adequate enough to deal with Ebola due to possibilities it can be spread by sneezing and droplets. The real test will be if it once more spreads through West Africa and those people get in planes. Are the filtration systems in jet planes, which some time ago were downgraded, adequate? Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Medclinician
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Volume 21, Number 7—July 2015Estimating Ebola Treatment Needs, United StatesCDC EID journal July 2015
To the Editor: By December 31, 2014, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa had resulted in treatment of 10 Ebola case-patients in the United States; a maximum of 4 patients received treatment at any one time (1). Four of these 10 persons became clinically ill in the United States (2 infected outside the United States and 2 infected in the United States), and 6 were clinically ill persons medically evacuated from West Africa (Technical Appendix 1[PDF - 228 KB - 8 pages] Table 6). To plan for possible future cases in the United States, policy makers requested we produce a tool to estimate future numbers of Ebola case-patients needing treatment at any one time in the United States. Gomes et al. previously estimated the potential size of outbreaks in the United States and other countries for 2 different dates in September 2014 (2). Another study considered the overall risk for exportation of Ebola from West Africa but did not estimate the number of potential cases in the United States at any one time (3). comment: Although there are plans in place to treat Ebola in the U.S. they are based on a very low number of predicted cases. Also, the regular hospitals do not really have the training, isolation or equipment to hand a large Ebola outbreak. http://abcnews.go.com/Health/us-capacity-11-ebola-patients-specialized-hospitals/story?id=26251721 Though there is no plan yet to move all Ebola patients to specialized biocontainment facilities, only seven spots at these facilities remain open in the United States. Health officials have said again and again that any hospital should be able to treat Ebola patients, but the two nurses diagnosed with Ebola in Dallas over the last few days have been moved from Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital -- where they contracted Ebola while treating Thomas Eric Duncan -- to specialized hospitals with biocontainment units.
There are four hospitals with biocontainment facilities in the United
States, and they have 11 beds that can be used at any one time for Ebola
patients, officials told ABC News. Four of those beds are currently
being occupied by Ebola patients. comment: Persons from the CDC and other agencies have stated that they do not consider Ebola a health threat to America. The first patient with Ebola came from Liberia. http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/30/health/ebola-us/index.html Currently an outbreak has begun in Liberia with the third case diagnosed today. Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Medclinician
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Ebola Monitoring Overview DCHHS monitors individuals for Ebola Virus Disease for 21 days per guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of State Health Services. Dallas County residents can be confident that DCHHS is doing its part to protect Dallas County residents from viruses and diseases that are a threat to public health. CDC Interim Guidance for Monitoring and Movement of Persons with Potential Ebola Virus Exposure Number of individuals currently being monitored: 8
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Medclinician
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http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2015/06/07/ohio-ebola.html
Hundreds of travelers coming from West African countries that had Ebola outbreaks have been monitored temporarily in Ohio under protocols implemented last fall, and no quarantines have been necessary, the Ohio Department of Health said. Travelers from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone are monitored until 21 days after they were last potentially exposed to the virus or were last in one of those countries, the department said. A department spokeswoman said that as of Friday, 46 travelers were within that window. She said 328 other people have completed monitoring since the protocols were put in place more than seven months ago as officials sought to ensure the illness didn’t spread.Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Medclinician
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http://www.livescience.com/48263-ebola-mortality-us-africa.html
Statistically speaking, this means that African patients with Ebola have about a one-in-two chance of surviving the illness, according to the CDC. It should be noted that fatality rates can vary widely from country to country, so Ebola patients' chances of survival might be greater or less than 50 percent depending on where they're located. But if Ebola were to become widespread in the U.S.— a situation that public health organizations believe is highly unlikely — the mortality rate from the virus would likely be lower than it is in West Africa, said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee. "The death rate would be lower in the U.S.," Schaffner told Live Science. "Everybody believes we could move it down from 50 percent to 30 percent, or perhaps even lower than that." This belief is based on the quality and availability of health care in the United States, he said. comment: Although it is still said with great confidence Ebola will not spread to the U.S., if it did we could see a 30% death rate. A 5% death rate would shut down the infrastructure of government and medical services as we know it. A 30% .. well... it is doubtful that the power grid, the Internet, or our medical system would be able to deal with it. The level at sanitation and number of doctors per patient is fairly low in West Africa. http://www.irinnews.org/report/89186/africa-ten-countries-desperately-seeking-doctors NAIROBI, 19 May 2010 (IRIN) - Shortages of medical staff have been
identified as one of the major impediments to achieving the
health-related UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). For example, one
of the poorest countries in the world, Mozambique, has just 548 doctors
for a population of more than 22 million, according to the UN World
Health Organization (WHO). In Liberia, doctors have been in short supply for decades. When the
country's most recent civil war ended in 2003, the country relied on
about 50 doctors to care for the entire nation of more than 3 million
people. comment: So there is good reason to question how bad Ebola would be in the U.S. Yet, with all our health care, even if 30% didn't make it, we still couldn't handle it. Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Medclinician
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http://wbay.com/2015/08/05/alabama-patient-exhibiting-ebola-like-symptoms-after-trip-to-africa/
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WIAT) – A patient has been admitted to a Birmingham, Alabama, hospital after experiencing “Ebola-like symptoms” on Tuesday, August 4, 2015. The patient had been under monitoring after recently visiting an African country with active Ebola cases, according to Dr. Ed Kahn, Jefferson County Medical Director of Disease Control. On Tuesday, the patient called emergency responders after showing some symptoms. comment: It is still possible Ebola could spread to America. Cases are still appearing in West Africa and we know that not all cases are reported. It is possible during the "lull" in cases when Liberia was declared Ebola free it is likely there were still infections and deaths not reported. This is a watching and waiting affair with Ebola continuing to simmer in West Africa and has not stopped yet. Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Albert
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Good find. We have undoubtedly let our guard down by now so this wouldn't be good.
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Medclinician
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http://www.wlox.com/story/29713513/officials-alabama-home-quarantined-over-possible-ebola-case
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) - Officials say a quarantine is in place at a Birmingham home over a possible Ebola case. Edward Khan of the Jefferson County Health Department says the patient is being treated at the University of Alabama at Birmingham Hospital after developing symptoms and notifying authorities. Khan says the patient recently traveled to a country with Ebola cases, but he didn't identify the country or name the patient. Khan says the patient didn't have direct contact with anyone known to have Ebola and is considered "low risk" for the disease. He says the patient is being tested and results will be released Wednesday. Police say two family members of the patient have been asked to stay inside their home on Birmingham's southwest side. Lt. Joe Roberts says home is cordoned off and officers are guarding it. Medclinician |
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