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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Egypt confirms 63rd human case of Bird Flu

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Midas View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 05 2009 at 2:27pm
Egypt announces 63rd bird flu case
 
CAIRO, April 5 (KUNA) -- Egypt announced Sunday that a six-year-old child was infected with bird flu, making him the 63rd case since the outbreak of the disease in the north African country.
Ministry of Health spokesman dr. Abdulrahman Shahin said in a statement the boy, whose name was not disclosed, was in "critical" condition.
He added that the boy was given the Tamiflu medication once doctors suspected he was infected with bird flu. (end) nor.bs KUNA 052300 Apr 09NNNN
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2009 at 2:31pm
The bad news is that the Japanese and Panasonic are looking better and better in their prediction of h5n1 going airborne next winter. 
 
The good news is that tamiflu still seems to be very effective as seen in this last group of surviving cases.  
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 4=laro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2009 at 6:29am
As we watch the economy faltering, do you think the reason panasonic brought their people home was more financial then health related?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2009 at 4:38am
Bird Flu cases and information on the network is becoming more and more difficult to find. In this case we see an article and then virtually no followup or further articles on what happened to this case. Did he recover? Did he die. What strain was it?  And did he get it from birds or people?

http://birdflu.sis.gov.eg/html/index.htm

A second frustrating thing is the lag on outbreaks. Several sources have suggested there are 'net hens' that scan daily articles on the net and wipe bird flu data and delete links. Sounds real conspiratorial. The reality is that it is not logical for countries with bird flu endogenous in all of its birds, some as many as 400,000,000 who carry high path, not to infect humans in larger numbers.

Press release of the National Committee for Combating Bird Flu

On Sunday 5/4/2009, the bird flu human infection No. 63 was confirmed. The infection was for Ali Mohamed Ali Soma'a, aged six years, from Shobra el-Khema, Qaliuobiya governorate. The child showed symptoms of infection on 22/3/2009.

Earlier this year we were getting closer to detecting a truly massive outbreak in China as birds were drifting offshore and testing positive. The last outbreak in a major population center was all but wiped from the media.

Albert, I think our last hope is to hand write a search engine, which we have begun, that will bypass, and not be monitored. The head of Google is online to the President's office as a top adviser.

Years ago we had maps and a lot of numbers and countries with Bird Flu. Given the increase in almost all diseases and antibiotic and antiviral resistant strains, it is unlikely these have gone away.

What is not reported cannot be counted.

I have been told it is bad in Egypt. That low path strains have developed and when is the last time you have heard a press release from NAMRU - either branch.

At the end of February the blackout began. Since then either we have have a massive cure of Bird Flu world wide with no outbreaks in India, Indonesia, China, or the U.S., or the screws have been turned down tigher than ever before.

Only a rogue search engine, I think can break the deadlock of no news. We will do our best to write one and also search in other languages.

Otherwise, Bird Flu is no longer a problem, there is no reason to prep, and we can all retire to worry about serious dark clouds of war and conflict drifting towards us.

Can there be no cases except for one or two on earth every few weeks. It seem VERY unlikely.


Medclinician

then what happened.. like a cliff hanger story this is all I am left with this shred of news

Bird Flu in Egypt



Press release of the National Committee for Combating Bird Flu

On Sunday 5/4/2009, the bird flu human infection No. 63 was confirmed. The infection was for Ali Mohamed Ali Soma'a, aged six years, from Shobra el-Khema, Qaliuobiya governorate. The child showed symptoms of infection on 22/3/2009.

He was admitted to Ain-Shams University Hospital on 28/3/2009. He has been given the antiviral vaccine Tamiflu as soon as he was suspected of being infected with the disease. The child now is on the ventilator and his health condition is critical.

comment: eleven days and silence. Did he live or die?  How can we find out?


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This is case number 55 in Egypt. What happened to cases 56-62?

CAIRO, 12 March 2009 (IRIN) - An 18-month-old child contracted the H5N1 bird flu virus on 10 March, bringing the number of human cases in Egypt to 58 since records began in 2006, and prompting the World Health Organization (WHO) to ask for a study to be undertaken of the causes.

The child - from Manoufiya Province in northern Egypt - is one of several recent cases of young children to have contracted the deadly virus in a country where over five million families raise poultry for a living.

Egyptian Health Ministry spokesman Abdel Rahman Shahin told IRIN the girl exhibited symptoms of infection on 6 March after reported contact with infected birds. She was taken to hospital on 9 March and given the antiviral vaccine Tamiflu.

"Her case has stabilised but she will remain at the hospital for further check-ups," Shahin said.

The child’s case is the latest in a rapidly growing number of cases of child infection in Egypt, causing concern among WHO officials.

On 4 March, a two-year-old boy from the coastal city of Alexandria (220km from Cairo) contracted the virus. The boy is being treated with Tamiflu.

Another two-year-old boy from Fayum, 85km southwest of Cairo, was infected by the virus on 1 March, Nasr al-Sayyid, the assistant health minister, said.

According to the Egyptian Ministry of Health, five cases of bird flu have been registered in 2009; 23 people have died from the virus since records began in 2006.

The rapid growth rate of bird flu infections in children is worrying, said John Jabbour, senior epidemiologist with WHO, which is asking the Health Ministry to investigate why so many children aged 2-3 are being infected.

comment: what cases - where are the records on cases 59-62 in Egypt- who have been  confirmed infected by H5N1 - what strain - and what happened?

Jabbour speculated that the reason for the increased number of cases in this age group was that families were no longer as alert as immediately after the last awareness campaign.

He warned that families with poultry must be on their guard at all times, given UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warnings that the H5N1 strain was endemic in poultry.

"This is a problem that will not go away in poultry, hence people who deal with birds cannot afford to relax. Those who come in contact with birds must make caution part of their daily routine," he said.

Changing the mindset

Jabbour said social behaviour and attitudes also played a vital role in tackling bird flu. "We are not just fighting bird flu only; we are also trying to change the mentality which says reporting a case of bird flu infection in poultry will destroy income," he said.

Assistant Health Minister Sayyed said poultry keepers were often reluctant to report suspected cases for fear that health officials would cull not only their birds but those of neighbouring families.

Egypt does not run a compensation scheme for farmers who lose poultry in a cull.

According to the latest WHO statistics, some 410 people in 15 countries and regions have contracted the virus and 256 of them have died of the disease.

While H5N1 rarely infects people, experts fear it could mutate into a form that could easily be passed from one person to another, leading to a pandemic which could kill millions.

ma/ar/cb

Medclinician
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BurmaBorder Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2009 at 7:15am
http://www.worldpoultry.net/news/egypt-concern-over-bird-flu-cases-3809.html

Egypt: Concern over bird flu cases 13 Apr 2009

The World Health Organisation is concerned that some Egyptians may carry the highly pathogenic bird flu virus without showing symptoms, reports Reuters.

It still needs to be determined whether such cases exist, but this will be the focus of an Egyptian government study backed by the global health body, according to John Jabbour, an emerging diseases specialist at WHO.

"This is a concern only, now. It is a question to be asked," said Jabbour, adding that a change in the pattern of human bird flu infections this year in Egypt had raised concerns about the existence of so-called sub clinical cases.

The emergence of symptomless human carriers of the virus would be a worrisome development because it could allow the virus, undetected and untreated, more time to mutate inside the human body, Jabbour added.

"If there is any sub clinical case in Egypt, the aim is to treat immediately to stop the reproduction of the virus. Because whether (through) mutation or reassortment, this will lead to the pandemic strain," he said.

Jabbour said the rise in infections in children without similar cases among adults had triggered questions as to whether adults were being infected with the virus but not falling ill. "There is something strange happening in Egypt. Why in children now and not in adults?" he said. "We need to see if there are sub clinical cases in the community."

The Egyptian study, which Jabbour said should begin in the coming months, would test the blood of people who may have been in contact with infected birds but had not become sick.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2009 at 8:03am

I've already looked into the so-called mild h5n1 claims for the latest Egypt outbreak.  All studies are saying that the young children simply received early treatment.  Nothing more, nothing less.  Although these patients still received "early treatment", a few were still in critical condition, so even with early tamiflu intervention with this highly lethal strain, it is still a difficult one to beat.   Without any treament at all, all of them would have died.  Sound mild?    One of the patients was also 38, so it is not true that is only infecting the young.   Just another fact that is selectively overlooked.   It was also learned that h5n1 tends to infect the young in Egypt because their roles are different in that country, and the young children are responisble for tending to the flocks, and handling the food, etc.... and of course the youngsters are also known for playing with dead chickens.   Maybe they could use a TV, eh?  lol  

This whole Egypt outbreak has been severely distorted by the nutcase Dr. Niman.  This guy has started some recent crazy "rumors" over Egypt, which are truly crazy.  Again, we have seen him do this MANY times in the past.   There was no human-to-human transmission in Egypt, nor has there been a new mild h5n1 strain discovered.  All of this started from one crazy guy by the name of niman, and the WHO feels obligated to placate him because he is such a thorn in everbody's side.   
 
I also don't see a need to post these latest "rumors" from this guy in our News Section.  There at least has to be one site (us) that keeps a clear picture of what's actually happening.     
 
I've warned people not listen to this niman guy in the past.  From the time he claimed there was a Canadian train with infected passengers with bird flu, to claims of thousands of cases in India, Turkey,  etc ...... none of it is ever true.  Whatever comes out of that guy's mouth is nothing but wild speculation.   
 
If people want to chase their own tails, keep listening to this guiy and his group. 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TipKat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2009 at 11:54am
Never mind Albert...I answered my own question.  I looked up the founder of website "********" and there he was Henery L. Niman.  I had no idea he was the author of that site.  Thanks for giving me the heads up, will be more careful in future. :-)  Tip
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2009 at 8:14pm
Originally posted by 4=laro 4=laro wrote:

As we watch the economy faltering, do you think the reason panasonic brought their people home was more financial then health related?
 
It could be, but I have no reason to think they're not telling the truth.  Panasonic is trading at $13.45 and their earnings are at around 80 Billion for last year.   Chances are, they do in fact believe this is the year.  
 
 
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