Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
EXPERTS WARN: Zika Virus has Pandemic Potential |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Posted: January 28 2016 at 8:03am |
Looks like the next pandemic may in fact be the Zika Pandemic. Explosive pandemic potential? We may be going to defcon 4 shortly.
Zika virus spreading 'explosively', says World Health OrganisationDirector general convenes emergency committee, saying ‘level of alarm is extremely high’ as virus has now been detected in more than 20 countries The World Health Organisation has convened an emergency committee to discuss the “explosive” spread of the Zika virus, which has been linked to thousands of birth defects in Latin America. “Last year the disease was detected in the Americas, where it is
spreading explosively,” Margaret Chan, the WHO director general, said at
a special briefing in Geneva. It was “deeply concerning” that the virus
had now been detected in 23 countries in the Americas, she added. Between 3m and 4m cases of Zika can be expected, said Marcos Espinal, an infectious disease expert at the WHO’s Americas regional office, though he gave no time frame for these figures. The spread of the virus has prompted governments across the world to advise pregnant women against going to the areas where it has been detected. There is no vaccine or cure for Zika, which has been linked to microcephaly, a serious condition that can cause lifelong developmental problems. Chan said: “The level of alarm is extremely high. Arrival of the
virus in some cases has been associated with a steep increase in the
birth of babies with abnormally small heads.” She added: “A causal relationship between Zika virus and birth malformations and neurological syndromes has not yet been established – this is an important point – but it is strongly suspected. “The possible links have rapidly changed the risk profile of Zika from a mild threat to one of alarming proportions. The increased incidence of microcephaly is particularly alarming as it places a heartbreaking burden on families and communities.”Chan outlined four reasons for alarm: “First, the possible association of infection with birth malformations and neurological syndromes. Second, the potential for further international spread given the wide geographical distribution of the mosquito vector. Third, the lack of population immunity in newly affected areas. Fourth, the absence of vaccines.” This year’s el Niño weather patterns mean mosquito populations are expected to spread, Chan added. “For all these reasons, I have decided to convene an emergency committee under the international health regulations,” she said. The committee will meet on Monday and will advise on the international responses and specific measures in affected countries and elsewhere. Since September, Brazil has registered nearly 4,000 cases of babies with microcephaly. The Brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, has pledged to wage war against the Aedes aegypti mosquito that spreads the virus, focusing on getting rid of the insect’s breeding grounds. Lawrence Gostin, a public health law expert from Georgetown University, warned that Zika has an “explosive pandemic potential”. Speaking to the BBC’s World Service, Gostin, a member of a commission that criticised the WHO for its response to Ebola, said: “With the Rio Olympics on our doorstep I can certainly see this having a pandemic potential.” He said every review of the WHO’s response to Ebola found that it was “too little, too late”. Interviewed minutes before Chan’s announcement, he said: “I’m
disappointed that the WHO has not been acting proactively. They have not
issued any advice about travel, about surveillance, about mosquito
control. Advertisement “The very first thing I would propose is a global mosquito eradication effort, particularly in areas with ongoing Zika transmission. We really need to declare war on this species of mosquito.” The WHO’s leadership admitted last April to serious missteps in its handling of the Ebola crisis, which was focused mostly on three west African countries and killed more than 10,000 people. Some critics have said the WHO’s slow response played a major role in allowing the epidemic to balloon. Zika is related to yellow fever and dengue. An estimated 80% of people that have it have no symptoms, making it difficult for pregnant women to know whether they have been infected. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/28/zika-virus-spreading-explosively-says-world-health-organisation |
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Medclinician
V.I.P. Member Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: July 08 2009 Status: Offline Points: 23322 |
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Why is this so nostalgic, Albert? Margaret Chan again. Wasn't this kind of talk a prelude to the last Pandemic? One thing you might consider is the last thing these people are is alarmist. They know far more than we do generally and how serious the situation is. I posted elsewhere on here that during the Pandemic we had about 60 something million cases. That isn't a lot of cases for a world population above 7 billion. The clock is ticking. http://www.census.gov/popclock/ I also posted they announced they are worried it will spread to China. That is probably why she made this announcement. Could that be interpreted -it already is in China? There are statements also that they currently do not believe it can spread in ways besides mosquitoes - yet. Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Albert
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Very reminiscent indeed of the WHO in 2009 prior to the swine flu pandemic.
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Albert
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Another Pandemic Is Coming our WayThe Zika virus is too important to ignore. The Zika virus, so named because it was first identified in Uganda’s Zika Forest in the 1940s, has been wreaking havoc in Brazil. The government estimates that 1.5 million Brazilians have been infected in the last 8 months. For most, the mosquito-borne Zika virus is not particularly dangerous. Symptoms include fevers, red rashes, and pink eye; up to 80% of people infected with the virus experience no symptoms. But the real problem is not with children or adults; it’s with the newborn babies born to infected women. These babies have shown high rates of microcephaly, a horrible neurological disorder in which infants are born with an abnormally small brain. The condition usually results in death or cognitive impairment. In 2014, Brazil had fewer than 200 cases of microcephaly; in 2015, as the Zika virus spread, approximately 3000 cases were recorded. Several areas in Brazil have declared a state of emergency. This is the first time the condition has been linked to the virus, for which there is no vaccine. Because of the apparent danger to fetuses, women in several countries are being urged to delay having children. In Colombia, Ecuador, and Jamaica, officials have cautioned women against pregnancy; and in El Salvador, the government is urging women to wait for up to two years before getting pregnant. If the advice is followed, it’s possible that population trajectories in these countries might materially differ from prior projections. Zika virus infections have occurred across the Americas, including in Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Mexico, and Puerto Rico. On Monday, the World Health Organization warned that the virus would likely spread through most of North and South America, including the United States. Officials are increasinglyconcerned that the virus could spread rapidly in the US this summer, particularly in the swampy, mosquito-dense Gulf Coast region. The Zika virus would join a number of mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue, West Nile, and chikungunya, that have reached the US in recent decades. Pronouncements guiding pregnant women away from infected areas are increasingly common. Expect more guidance to emerge. The US Center for Disease Control (CDC) has cautioned pregnant women to “consider postponing travel to any area where Zika virus transmission is ongoing.” This includes countries in the Caribbean such as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Barbados and St. Martin. There are currently more than 20 countries identified by the CDC with Zika cases. Why is this happening? First, there’s globalization and urbanization. Researchers recently argued in the New England Journal of Medicine that “urban crowding, constant international travel, and other human behaviors combined with human-caused micro-perturbations in ecologic balance can cause innumerable slumbering infectious agents to emerge unexpectedly. Second, there’s climate change, which might contribute to outbreaks of viruses like Zika by allowing pathogen-bearing mosquitos to expand into newly-warmed territory. They have larger regions in which to expand for longer seasons. As the global public health community scrambles to develop a means to address the Zika threat, let’s not forget that our actions fighting the virus today are going to have long-lasting economic ramifications. Case in point: Brazil.
Just think about the upcoming summer Olympics that begin in Rio de Janeiro this August. Scientists are already urging pregnant women to consider skipping the games. If the virus has not been contained by this summer, it could cast a dark cloud over an already-struggling Olympics and a battered Brazilian economy. As the country fights a severe recession and political chaos, a rapidly spreading pandemic of a terrifying virus is a particularly unwelcome development. There’s also the population impact of delayed and discouraged pregnancies. Cautioning entire cohorts of women to put off childbearing for years could impact the demographic trajectories of countries, adversely affecting their economic prospects. In a region like South America, where birthrates are already plummeting, a one-off decline in birth rates could only accentuate the economic pain of such a demographic transition. The Zika virus has the potential to impact emerging markets, demographics, and even Caribbean tourism. It’s simply too important to ignore, and for anyone seeking to navigate our increasingly uncertain future, it’s critical we constantly scan the horizon for potential needle-moving developments. Zika appears to be one. I hope I’m wrong. http://fortune.com/2016/01/27/pandemic-zika-virus/ |
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