Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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Phewww, I feel better, great news!
If they run out of test kits the official numbers will drop! were saved. |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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endman
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1232 |
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Any new virus has potential to get much worse
Yes flu is bad but we have vaccine This new one nobody knows it could kill 10k or 100k people Just my observation more people are sick now then a week ago |
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cobber
Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035 |
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Running short on test kits is very common. I remember in a previous pandemic. The doctors and nurses were hoarding kits so they could test friends and relatives. It was amazing how many healthcare workers were popping up in the stats.
I'm hearing the CFR is very low less than 1%. I'm also hearing about asymptomatic cases especially in children. Even though this will be a pandemic. I still think its a powderpuff. |
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Emswally
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Idaho USA Status: Offline Points: 1380 |
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It all depends on if the virus can be transmitted
To another human while the carrier is not showing Symptoms. How can you really screen infected Who show no signs ? A game of catch up that Can’t be won. Pray for the best outcome. Prepare For the worst. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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It can. 1/30 New England Journal of Medicine letter describes German case of Chinese woman visiting Germany. Met with German guy, transmitted to him, he transmitted it to two others who never had contact with her.
Stay calm, prep. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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This is what I mean.
I think the CFR of 3% is too low. It's going to take time for the CFR to catch up to the truer number. This article, and this website, has great updates on nCoV: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/burning-bodies-secret-new-accounts-wuhan-detail-coronavirus-outbreak https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/corona%20virus%20vs%20sars_0.png?itok=z6ZPLOZq |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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That beautifully illustrates my point. Thank you.
Not only does the new virus have a far wider, faster spread, but it kills more slowly, so the discrepancy between light blue and dark blue lines is greater. We still do not know how many undiagnosed and asymptomatic cases there are, so each of them will lower the death rate somewhat. It will be a long time before those things come to light. The advice remains the same: "Preparation not panic." |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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What is REALLY interesting in looking at this graph (and the data from 1/29 of 9822 infections closely matches the prediction, is that the growth curve multiplier of 53% is very close to the ratio of "official" deaths/recoveries 213/187 = .53.25%!!
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Word of the day: "escape velocity." The moment a virus reaches critical mass and explodes exponentially, essentially "uncontained."
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Keep watching the incubation/infection time lag period, compared to the number of infections in countries besides China...
This genie is out of the bottle. Now what's the real timeline of disease progression and CFR? |
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AlexSun
Adviser Group Joined: January 29 2020 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 175 |
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According to incubation/infection time lag my predictions are 290 death on last update for 1th of February and a scary number between 5000-7000 worldwide i'm afraid, not just in mainland China!
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Here's an concerning prediction from Twitter:
"Angry Arkie @ArkieAngry · 2h Replying to @stonygirl and @SenTomCotton 1.71 million will die of coronavirus related respiratory failure by about mid February. The epidemiology predictive models demonstrate exponential spread.. while I never agree with Cotton.. I do on this one." |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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AlexSun
Adviser Group Joined: January 29 2020 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 175 |
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Key facts
Pneumonia accounts for 15% of all deaths of children under 5 years old, killing 808 694 children in 2017. Pneumonia can be caused by viruses, bacteria, or fungi. Pneumonia can be prevented by immunization, adequate nutrition, and by addressing environmental factors. Pneumonia caused by bacteria can be treated with antibiotics, but only one third of children with pneumonia receive the antibiotics they need. Pneumonia is a form of acute respiratory infection that affects the lungs. The lungs are made up of small sacs called alveoli, which fill with air when a healthy person breathes. When an individual has pneumonia, the alveoli are filled with pus and fluid, which makes breathing painful and limits oxygen intake. Pneumonia is the single largest infectious cause of death in children worldwide. Pneumonia killed 808 694 children under the age of 5 in 2017, accounting for 15% of all deaths of children under five years old. Children can be protected from pneumonia, it can be prevented with simple interventions, and treated with low-cost, low-tech medication and care.Pneumonia affects children and families everywhere, but is most prevalent in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. According to medical reference pneumonia it's very close to Coronavirus on icubation time and effects. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/pneumonia |
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Lonewolf
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 30 2020 Status: Offline Points: 890 |
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Alexsun. This pneumonia is caused by a coronavirus not bacteria so although some of the info you posted is correct. This coronavirus's pneumonia can not be avoided at this time if you come in contact with it and come down with it. Neither by vaccination or antibiotics. Unfortunately neither will work
For pneumonia there are several things that can help reduce the severity though. Not smoking ( thankfully i quit not long ago) zinc acetate or zinc glutamate supplements (taken as soon as possible before or at onset) vita D, garlic, oregano oil (antivirals), onion, olive leaf extract, licorice tea. etc. |
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Emswally
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Idaho USA Status: Offline Points: 1380 |
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Supposed research paper out of China stating Ro is
At 4.08 |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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11948 cases now, with 259 deaths. About the same increase as yesterday, and deaths are at 259.
Anyone buying it? |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Nope!
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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So what do you all think the odds are that we're going to start seeing clusters next week?
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BeachMama
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Southwest US Status: Offline Points: 3080 |
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We have a cluster in Germany right now — the Bavarian folks who were infected by a colleague. One of them has a child who has become ill. Spain’s diagnosis is apparently a person who came into contact with one of the Bavarian cluster. It seems we have a potential cluster in Chicago forming, as well — an infant who was exposed to the two ill people there has developed a fever. Of course, little ones pop fever all the time, so that could be totally unrelated. Time will tell.
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Note on exponential modeling, there does appear to be some tapering recently, but I believe it may reflect the timing of the reporting for the day, as daily figures tend to come out late.
The CFR also seems to have stabilized at 2.2,2.1 based on this data, which although is likely circumspect, is all we have to go on. |
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Usk
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 7325 |
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Your graphing makes me wonder if it can prove the Chinese are lying about their numbers.
They may just be sending out numbers that follow a graph of their design to not panic the rest of us. Boots on the ground and cases globally do not fit your 2 R0 |
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ME163
Admin Group Joined: September 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 4552 |
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The lancet article blows the case levels to smithereens. THE DEATH RATE must be much higher than reported.... So therefore the 4.08 Ro is more plausible than the Chinese or the US say....
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roni3470
Adviser Group Joined: August 30 2006 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 5390 |
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The death rate is no doubt higher, but also since they don't have test kits the actual number of cases is higher so not sure if the 2.1% would change much. Thoughts?
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NOW is the Season to Know
that Everything you Do is Sacred |
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Usk
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 7325 |
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From virologist in the hot zone
HEALTHVirologist Who Visited Wuhan Says Coronavirus is “Out of Control” Fears scale of infection could be 10 times higher than SARS. Published 1 week ago on 24 January, 2020 Paul Joseph Watson A top virologist who was involved in the response to SARS says he has visited Wuhan, China and believes that the coronavirus is “out of control.” Dr. Guan Check it out: https://summit.news/2020/01/30/coronavirus-model-predicts-183-million-infections-before-the-end-of-february/ |
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Notanewbie
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 13 2018 Status: Offline Points: 605 |
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The 1918 flu came in three waves, each one more deadly. Was there mutations that made H2H easier or more virulent?
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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A bit of both, I imagine. The first wave was considered to be no more than a bad seasonal flu at the time, but the second wave in the later part of 1918 infected far more, with much higher lethality.
This virus has already shown it’s ability to mutate if the 33 variants are indeed out there. That makes it hard to know what it can do as it’s exposed to an exponentially larger group of hosts (you and me...). If it continues to hone it’s skills, all bets are potentially off. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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I have been waiting for the reported numbers to very from the projections since 1/23 and they have not...... I keep holding my tongue,and forcing myself to say, nahhh it will stop or slow down, or something will change.
I refuse to be an alarmist, but keep getting stuff in order, and hang on. Everyone also needs to be ready for the business, and economic impact of this, if the projections hold, our jobs and income will be seriously impacted, or cut off....IMO |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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LCfromFL
Adviser Group Joined: August 17 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1614 |
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Pheasant - which part of FL are you in? I'm near Jax. How are the stores near you? I was in a local Winn Dixie today and the only thing that seemed to be out of stock was some of the dried rice. The Home Depot and Lowe's I went to today had N95s and goggles - but didn't have a lot left. None in the paint section but I found some over where they have safety goggles. I always take advantage of the BOGO deals at Publix or WD...but in the last couple of weeks, I've stepped it up. We lost most of our preps from flooding with Hurricane Irma a couple of years ago. I've been working to restock things and I'm feeling much better about our readiness now. |
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Emswally
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Idaho USA Status: Offline Points: 1380 |
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The Ro of 4.08 is from a Chinese research group
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Latest numbers. I'm too busy prepping to do the charts.
BNO Newsroom @BNODesk · 18m Coronavirus update: - 14,550 confirmed cases worldwide - 19,544 suspected cases - 304 fatalities - 2,110 in serious/critical condition - 328 in China treated and released - Biggest daily increase so far - 24 countries reporting cases At least on paper, appears to be tapering, but still growing exponentially. Also the PFR is lower to 304 / 339. I'm sure this isn't accurate though, as many have likely died or recovered and are not recorded. |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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Hi Lc, Marion county here, Walmart is out of surgical masks, haven't looked for other's, all else looks good.
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Still rising like a rocket. Likely limited by test availability. Let's pray that the quarantine effect from Jan. 21 starts showing up and starts bending this sucker. It's been about 10 days since then, right about the time the numbers should start reflecting it, if the Chinese don' keep playing obscure the real numbers, and try to count all those infected at home. Even if they don't, it should still show up in the official data. |
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Pandemic
Adviser Group Joined: January 31 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 2725 |
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How this plays outside of China maybe revealing.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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My thoughts exactly!
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Discussed early, important point recent Lancet article predicts exponential growth outside of Wuhan, lag time 1-2 weeks. (Can also infer exponential growth outside of China).
"If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks." https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext Upshot: don't wait until you are told what to do, start preparing now for WHO predicted local outbooks. If 2019-nCoV was (or is) confirmed in your local area, take prepping seriously and calmly, is my recommendation. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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What's interesting is the graph which shows the exponential rate outside Wuhan, and outside China as nearly identical. Wuhan is overwhelmed, thus hiding the true numbers.
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Comments from the Twitterverse:
Confluence Capital @YYC_Confluence "As a non-expert in all things #coronavirus😆, I feel it's still important to goal-post outcomes. Using Hubei infection data (~60 MM people region) and S-Curves (no insane exponential garbage), it suggests early innings, 1% total pop infected ... small %, large headline risk ..." "Confluence Capital @YYC_Confluence · 18m Replying to @YYC_Confluence Of interest, other regions, like #Zhejiang, #Guangdong, #Henan have earlier & spottier data (not worth posting), but don't seem to be nearly as aggressive thus far - so efforts to contain seem to be having a positive effect there. Confluence Capital @YYC_Confluence · 17m And keep in mind, even #Hubei, the epicenter with the longest dataset available, is effectively an N=14 observation exercise (many of the 12h updates are unch. versus priors, so not valid "updates"). So still a lot of moving parts here." |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Exactly! I was in India during the big Ebola epidemic in 2014, and the Indian government was paralyzed with the thought of Ebola coming into their country. With their over-crowding and total lack of sanitation, any infectious outbreak would be devastating. nCoV2019 has a lower case fatality rate than SARS, and we haven't noticed a "super-spreader" yet as we did with SARS, but the outbreak is still evolving, thanks to the stupidity of the Chinese government. I don't worry about the global community as much as mainland China, it won't be long before they start shooting folks with sniffles (I'm serious). |
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CRS, DrPH
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I've seen approcryphal youtube video of hazmat suit wearing officials with large rifles.
Even if a spoof, it shows what the Chinese man in the street is thinking. (Expecting?) |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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John Ray
Valued Member Joined: February 02 2020 Location: West Virginia, Status: Offline Points: 75 |
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I agree. They always have when they are stressed.
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Very good website with both linear and logarithmic graphs of virus infections and deaths:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ |
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