Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Fear.. how to handle it? |
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Posted: February 18 2006 at 5:17pm |
Here is how I handle the unknown.LITANY AGAINST FEARI must not fear.
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corky52
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 168 |
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Seem to be a lot of SciFi readers on here, is that a survival trait?
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Rocky
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 07 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 219 |
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Great "pass on" from my sister, who is working hard on large and small
community-based plans/education of the public, etc. I work on the more personal details of "readiness". Rocky Fear can play role in pandemic readiness, speaker says Robert Roos News Editor Feb 17, 2006 (CIDRAP News) One expert's advice to leaders trying to prepare the world for an influenza pandemic: Don't be scared of scaring people. Peter M. Sandman, PhD, a risk communication expert from Princeton, N.J., told those attending a Minneapolis conference on business planning for pandemic flu that fear is what motivates people to take sensible precautions in the face of a real threat. "The single most important thing I want to say to you is, don't worry so much about scaring people. People can take it," Sandman told the group of over 300 business leaders and others at the Minneapolis Convention Center on Feb 15. He made no apologies to Franklin W. ("The only thing we have to fear is fear itself") Roosevelt. Leaders are often reluctant to tell the truth about dangers because they fear causing panic, Sandman said. "The notion that we will panic people if we frighten them is outright false," he said. The mistaken fear of panic is compounded by other errors that get in the way of telling people the truth about threats, he said. These errors include "the failure to realize the positive value of fear" for stimulating appropriate action and "the mistaken judgment that fear can be avoided." "There's no way to get people to take precautions without frightening them," Sandman said. What is likely to lead to panic is giving false reassurance, he said. "When you mislead people, when you over-reassure people, they feel abandoned-because they are," he said. That's what happened in the United States during the flu pandemic of 1918 and during the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak in China in 2003, he added. "People panicked because the government was telling them there was no SARS," he said. "People are much better able to handle a crisis when they are told the truth" and "treated as adults." However, there is danger in overplaying a threat as well as in false reassurance, Sandman said. He zeroed in on the oft-repeated statement, "A pandemic is not a matter of if, it's a matter of when." "That's true of a pandemic; it's not true of a severe 1918-like pandemic," he said. "In that case, it's if." He added, "Just as over-reassuring people backfires, alarming people in ways that won't last, that won't stand up to investigation, backfires. There's an unknown probability of a pandemic of very high magnitude." To say that a severe pandemic is inevitable is "dishonest," and it gives ammunition to those who argue that the threat is trivial, Sandman said. In a similar vein, Sandman urged his audience to be frank about uncertainty. "People love certainty, but people punish fake certainty. The public is extremely capable of tolerating high levels of uncertainty." When you are uncertain about a risk, he advised, "You need to be visibly, vividly, confidently uncertain." But his primary message was that in the presence of a real threat that demands precautions, leaders should not be afraid of causing some fear. Calling fear a "fungible" emotion, he said, "When you [preparedness advocates] frighten people, you are not making them more fearful people. You are competing for their fear with other interest groups. You are working to get your share of their fear. You only have so much fearfulness to go around. If you allocate more to terrorism, you have to allocate less to other things." "We have to overcome our fear of fear, our 'panic panic,' so that we can do the job," he concluded. Sandman was asked how to maintain the level of concern about pandemic flu long enough to ensure that preparations are adequate. Part of the answer, he said, is not to try to maintain exactly the same level of concern all the time, but rather to use opportune moments to boost concern. "You pivot on the event," he said. For example, every time the H5N1 virus infects birds in another country, concern about a potential pandemic increases. The event doesn't necessarily mean much in relation to the actual threat of a pandemic, he said. "It is, however, a teachable moment." See also: Peter Sandman's site www.psandman.com Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy Academic Health Center -- University of Minnesota Copyright © 2006 Regents of the University of Minnesota quote from my sister-- I think it's important to remember that the pandemic is 'Inevitable, but not inevitably deadly.' Rocky |
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Rocky |
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LOL, I think most of us probably cut our teeth on Robert Heinlein.
In many ways, he was the father of survivalism.
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FlulessinDC
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Status: Offline Points: 40 |
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Pardon me, but... He made no apologies to Franklin W. ("The only thing we have to fear is fear itself") Roosevelt. I was pretty sure that Franklin Roosevelt's middle name was Delano (FDR) - where does the W come from? ~Fluless... with a W |
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No plan of battle ever survives contact with the enemy.
Heinz Guderian Plans are nothing; planning is everything. Dwight D. Eisenhower |
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Nice catch, Fluless.
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corky52
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 168 |
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Everything but cooking the "Tasty Meal", never managed that. Edible yes, tasty no!
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corky52, Perhaps you have identified the common thread of the members. I have often wondered why we all are here. |
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FlulessinDC
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Status: Offline Points: 40 |
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For Sci-Fi, I have to turn to one of the greatest from our neighbors to the north... Robert Sawyer. If you haven't read any of his books - get some for your prep stash... Heck get 'em anyway - they're great the second time around (and third, and...)
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No plan of battle ever survives contact with the enemy.
Heinz Guderian Plans are nothing; planning is everything. Dwight D. Eisenhower |
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corky52
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 168 |
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Reading SciFi would certainly make a person more likely to see the AF as being within the realm of the possible. "What if" isn't just a TV channels tag line for many of us! As a younger man I was lucky enough one night to get to sit in a hotel room with Heinlein and Dean Ing and listen in! |
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TNbebo408
Adviser Group Joined: December 10 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 295 |
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I thought Churchill made the fear itself comment. Am I wrong on this one?
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TNbebo48. It was FDR. See the link for his whole speech "...This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance." http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5057/ Prep-On |
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TNbebo408
Adviser Group Joined: December 10 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 295 |
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Doug, thanks for the correction. I just saved the speech, to read in the AM.
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corky52
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 168 |
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Let us hope that leaders with such vision arise in our coming hours of need! I wonder if any of them are in our midst here on this forum?
Edited by corky52 |
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Rocky
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 07 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 219 |
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Here is another wonderful, long and detailed, thorough and
thoughtful discussion regarding the pros and cons of personal stockpiling of Tamiflu. I think it belongs in this "Fear" Topic and might help us get back on track. Best to all. Rocky http://www.psandman.com/col/tamiflu.htm (copy and paste, please) ================= [QUOTE=Rocky] Snip One expert's advice to leaders trying to prepare the world for an influenza pandemic: Don't be scared of scaring people. Fear can play role in pandemic readiness, Robert Roos News Editor Feb 17, 2006 (CIDRAP News) Snip Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy Academic Health Center -- University of Minnesota Copyright © 2006 Regents of the University of Minnesota [/QUOTE=Rocky] |
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Rocky |
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Rocky
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 07 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 219 |
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Sorry, it was a typo in the middle initial. I knew it was Franklin Delano
Roosevelt also. Whew, glad we are off that debate. Where were we, oh yes, Fear...how to handle it? I look forward to reading your helpful and insightful suggestions regarding this topic (which mayhaps is why I am here at 3:30 am) Rocky
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Rocky |
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mightymouse
Valued Member Joined: January 27 2006 Status: Offline Points: 487 |
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About making fear tolerable: Imagine the worst that can happen. Mentally picture each one happening and how you would deal with it. Plan how to change, avoid, mitigate those occurances. If you can accept the worst and mentally deal with it ahead of time the fear will flee away on the morning mist. Nothing lasts forever. Seemingly bad things do happen. (Good and bad are only labels for events) That 'bad' flat tire could have saved your life. That 'good' winning lotto # could ruin it. Life will go on - but not for all. Accept it. Train yourself - imagine situations in which you MUST take some action. Figure out the best response, figure out a back-up plan in case the first one does'nt work for some reason - then practice your responses in real time with family. IE. - firedrill, nasty aggressive strangers, carjacking, etc. Even BF. The training will make large fears grow smaller as confidence grows larger. Educate yourself - There is nothing new under the sun. Somewhere, somehow, someone has faced this situation before and come out just fine on the other side. Fear of the unknown fades quickly under the light of knowledge. Use your fear as a tool to make you get going in preparing accordingly in many directions - many ways - to come through this with a smile at the end of the tunnel. What a time to be alive. One of the greatest times in the history of all mankind. The Zenith of civilization - and to be able to watch it possibly crumble to dust. As for me - I'm going to grab the popcorn and enjoy the ride. Above all - don't worry! A bale of hay can be a couch for a king with the proper mental attitude.
Edited by mightymouse |
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Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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corky52
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 168 |
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I just figure this isn't near as bad as it could get! I used to get paid to stare in to the abyss, this AF thing isn't pleasant but it's not one of the hopeless scenarios that we developed. People will live thought this and plants will still grow, life will go on. Envision either an idiot state or a natural disaster bringing on nuclear winter without killing anyone or only a small number, we have a world with six billion people and enough food to feed them for maybe a month, little more will grow for 3 to 5 years. Everyone can see the problem and knows the end is coming. If the absolute worst happens with AF, it will still be little to some of the worst that could happen. |
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