Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese


Forum Home Forum Home > General Discussion > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Food crises
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Food crises

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Food crises
    Posted: March 26 2019 at 6:13am
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-25/200-million-people-risk-national-weather-service-warns-worse-come-apocalyptic, https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/worst-disaster-ever-hits-nebraska-iowa-farmers-food-prices-to-skyrocket

DJ-The US is the main agriculture exporter in the world. (The Dutch are second). With the US agriculture in problems world food prices will go up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season even a relative mild hurricane season could be problematic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47674253 After a hurricane cholera is hitting Mozambique. The infra-structure in southern Africa is "weak" and now damaged.

China will be the main buyer for food-driving up further food-prices. Extreme weather could makes matters much worse...
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
EdwinSm, View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: April 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 7340
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2019 at 11:57pm
Thanks for posting this reminder.   Many years ago when I was beginning to get interested in the problems surrounding a peak production of oil, a wise friend said that I should also track the effect of food prices.

I have been using the FAO monthly price index http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/, which has some pretty charts showing overall changes and changes in categories. They also have one graph with inflation adjusted totals. Plus they also show the actual figures.

It is true that world prices in January and February are rising, but they are still below this same time last year, and far below that peak of 2011 (a possible delayed effect of the financial crisis in 2008).

But please note that Josh's report was a forward looking one, and the FAO report, while updated each month, is backward looking.


ps. The sugar index seems to be starting to rise (after falling for a few years) and traditionally is quite high compared to other food groupings. So because sugar can be stored for a long time, it might be good to look at our levels in storage.
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2019 at 2:46pm
EdwinSm, thank you for your info. Food on a global scale has to do with production, logistics, pricing (of both). Even when there would be enough production of food-getting it to the places that need the food most might get harder due to climate change. Infrastructure may be damaged-seaways unusable due to (expected) storms...

Foodprices may not give the right indication. Prices may remain low when the countries in need of food have no money to push the prices up.

In the past there was almost always enough foodproduction in the world. Mass starvation was caused by not getting food at the places most in need.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biafra and other (Bangla Desh, Ethiopia etc.) food-crises also had a political segment (genocidal one-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor-history is full of man made mass starvations. http://library.flawlesslogic.com/bacque_1.htm and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_in_occupied_Germany)

Trade-wars could cause food crises.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
EdwinSm, View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: April 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 7340
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2019 at 11:34pm
Yes, distribution is a major problem. The last major famine in Finland was caused by crop failure, but is was at the same time as war elsewhere in Europe so it lead to a population reduction.

Note: with the need to combat Climate Change, a lot of sentiment has swung against meat and dairy in the diet. One of the responses from the large Finnish famine was to increase dairy production to allow for a greater variety of food (so if grain crops failed there would be another source of food).   I guess we need a good balance here.


ps. It dates me, but as I was skinny one boy as school called me "Biafra"
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2019 at 2:50am
When people know what "Biafra" stands for it tells their age....

Some other (grim) stories;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Omm4fbhpp0U MrMBB333 with several flooding events, (including https://unofficialnetworks.com/2019/03/22/2019-flooding-prediction/ most of the US could see flooding this year ?)
https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2019/03/extreme-weather-in-new-zealand.html related to one of the cyclones hitting Australia.
(DJ-putting it this way describes the total insane weather we are in-"one of the cyclones")

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Western-Arctic-Warm-Wave-Smashing-Early-Spring-Records, http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/climate-tipping-points.html and http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/stronger-extinction-alert.html describing the motors behind the extreme weather.

"Our civilization" is facing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_by_a_thousand_cuts_(disambiguation)-although a few hundred major disasters could do "the job"....
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2019 at 1:33am
http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/03/march-heat-records-tumble-as-parts-of.html heatwave-in march-in India

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/March-Weather-Madness-Most-Extreme-Month-Year?cm_ven=cat6-widget

(And of course there is still http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/03/latest-study-shows-increase-in-levels.html Fukushima-radiation reaching Alaska

From https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/posts/10217959350992886:

Well, the UN is coming around to agreeing with me more and more and more. Last year I projected that we could see the Collapse of Civilization in About 12 years.

I use the word "About" because there are over a hundred variables that enter into the equation. I have mentioned many of them in the past few years. A few months after my projection the UN grabbed my 12 years and said we had until then to try to "save the world." Bolshoi, but at least they tried to get in agreement with me, which is a step in the right direction, but they have a ways to go.

Two degrees Celsius of warming from where we are right now is genocide. That temperaure will take most of our major crop growing areas up above 104 degrees Fahrenheit. Plants do not grow at 104 F (40 C) and above.

The new UN report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) talks about how much better 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming would be than 2 degrees of warming. Supposedly hundreds of millions of lives are at stake if temperatures rise by 2 degrees over an average that most of us are uncertain of. The UN opinion on the base line for the temperature never stays consistent, and they have raised it and raised it and raised it over the past two decades.

{ In the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the likelihood of global mean temperatures exceeding 1.5°C and 2°C above 1850-1900 levels was estimated. No estimates were provided, however, for a true “pre-industrial” baseline so you are now left to guess.} If it wasn't so sad, it would be funny.

The report declares, that if the world warms more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above Pre-Industrial average, which it will do soon, nearly all coral reefs would die out, wildfires and heat waves would sweep across the planet annually until most of the trees are gone. You can not have forest fires when the forests are gone! We can still have brush fires, though and they will continue to add CO2 to the atmosphere in beaucoup quantity.

The rapid sequences between Drought and Flooding and Interior / Bomb Cyclones, and Horrendous Wind Storms, and Rain Bombs, and High and Higher Temperatures and occasional Arctic Blasts would mean that the world’s food supplies would RAPIDLY start declining.

Shoot, it has already started this year! We won't be able to Scream, Yell, and Shout about it; but, believe me, IT HAS Started!

The New York Times recently declared that the IPCC report showed a “strong risk” of climate crisis in the near future.
In Grist.org, Eric Holthaus wrote that “civilization is at stake.”

Now, how many people understand what "civilization is at stake" means? In my opinion, it means that Civilization is going to collapse, and man will be at war with man for survival. In that case, the most evil bruts will survive.

And here is my favorite chart with an upward curving line. You can not argue with the increasing Global Average heat. All you can do is sweat. That curve is enough to make anybody nervous. (for curve see link DJ-exponential temperature rise. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-28/first-we-didnt-believe-it-fast-melting-greenland-glacier-starts-growing-again is-as usual-misinformation. Land-ice on the move can make glaciers grow.

The extreme weather events related to 1,5/2C above "normal" are starting already. Maybe a mix of several volcanic eruptions, solar minimum etc. could slow things down a little. On the other hand extreme weather can destroy the "global airco" when storms and heatwaves reach the (Ant)Arctic and Himalaya's.)

https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-world-meteorological-organisation.html:

Exposure of the agriculture sector to climate extremes was meanwhile threatening to reverse gains made in ending malnutrition.
New evidence showed a continuing rise in world hunger after a prolonged decline, according to data compiled by United Nations agencies including the Food and Agriculture Organisation and World Food Programme.

In 2017, the number of undernourished people was estimated to have increased to 821 million, partly due to severe droughts associated with the strong El Niño of 2015–2016.

And out of the 17.7 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) tracked by the International Organisation for Migration, over two million people were forced to shift due to disasters linked to weather and climate events, as of September 2018.

Drought, floods and storms were the events that had led to the most disaster-induced displacement in 2018.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2019 at 11:11pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-30/midwest-apocalypse-satellite-data-show-least-1-million-acres-us-farmland-devastated

And with “as many as a million calves” lost to the flooding, a lot less food than anticipated is going to be produced in the United States for the foreseeable future.

Between March 8th and March 21st, almost 1.1 million acres of cropland and over 84,000 acres of pastureland were covered by water for at least a week. With more rain on the way, it is essentially going to be impossible for most of those acres to be usable this year.

In Iowa, 474,271 acres were covered by floodwaters for at least seven days in March, and Iowa farmers are facing some very tough deadlines. Corn must be planted by May 31st and soybeans must be planted by June 15th in order to qualify for flood insurance. For most Iowa farms that were covered by floodwaters, that is going to be impossible.
-
This is it. America is being hammered by one storm after another, and I very much encourage you to get prepared for a very rough ride ahead.

There is going to be a lot more flooding. Prices for beef, dairy, wheat, corn and soy products are going to rise significantly, and just when you think they are way too high they are going to keep on rising.

This is already the worst agricultural disaster in modern American history, and federal authorities are telling us that we should expect things to continue to get worse for at least two more months.

Perhaps the mainstream media will eventually decide to take this story seriously, but until they do those of us in the alternative media will do our best to keep you updated.

(DJ-This event-and many others-will push food prices. A food-crisis will bring down governments. Extreme drought was one of the-many-reasons for the Syria war. A "nightmare scenario" might be many "Syria wars" around the globe.)

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/455081-manufactured-crisis-venezuela-us-intervention/?

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/1000-acre-forest-fire-in-new-jersey

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/03/31/592241/Iran-emergency-state-flooding-Khuzestan
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2019 at 7:46am
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2019 at 11:56pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-04/food-crisis-2019-african-swine-fever-outbreak-devastates-global-pig-population-pork
(see also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus
DJ African Swine Fever (ASF) is a global problem. Most likely only this year in Asia over 100 million pigs died due to ASF. (From the wikipedia-link-there was an idea of a link between ASF and AIDS https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673686903399)

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Record-Floods-Iran-Kill-62-Cause-Over-1-Billion-Damage and https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-arabs-water/arab-states-face-water-emergency-urgent-action-needed-u-n-idUSKCN1RG2AZ?fbclid=IwAR0KdfBnTSyDL5oP57nUXunhs1SxH8ERUVXyRY2h7A5cMzPRl0XeWJ3car8
drought in many other Arab states.


http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/04/2019-worst-agricultural-disaster-in.html:
The US has never seen catastrophic flooding like this before and NOAA is warning us the flooding will continue through to the end of May.
With more than 90% of the upper midwest and great planes are still covered by nearly 11 inches of snow and all that snow is beginning to melt.
That means the US will transform from one of the worst winters in modern history into a flood season that has already taken an apocalyptic turn for farmers across the US.
Millions of acres of farmland are already under water meaning thousands of farmers will not be able to plant crops this summer, with thousands of more farmers who have been financially ruined by the floods and will never return to farming again.
So far, 2019 is already the worst agricultural disaster in modern American history and it is going to get a whole lot worse.

DJ-Floods do not only damage harvest also destroys infrastructure. So even getting produce to consumers may become harder.
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2019 at 11:33am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEMwrjxsE0Q Paul Beckwith on why North America has to deal with this amount of extreme weather. Since the Arctic itself is running out of ice Greenland is de facto the new North Pole-bringing jetstreams over North America.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-08/uninsured-farmers-face-existential-crisis-floods-destroy-100s-millions-dollars
DJ-From trade wars leaving stocks of grains in the US-now spoiled by flooding to no banks willing to give farmers further credits...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqBaJzP-pDwMrMBB333;more bad weather coming for the US (and Canada) central states.
Back to Top
EdwinSm, View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: April 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 7340
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 11 2019 at 2:34am
The FAO Food Price Index remains steady
Originally posted by FAO FAO wrote:

The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) held steady in March 2019, averaging 167 points and still hovering around its highest value since August 2018. A sharp increase in dairy prices and somewhat firmer meat values were offset by declining cereal, oil and sugar price quotations. This resulted in the overall value of the FFPI remaining nearly unchanged from February but down 3.6 percent from the corresponding period last year.

Link for latest report http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 42916
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 11 2019 at 2:45am
Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

So because sugar can be stored for a long time, it might be good to look at our levels in storage.


Interesting timing - it's been a while since I put some of them away, so I'm slowly going through my dry preps (stored in buckets/mylar with O2 absorbers) and either eliminating them with the benefit of hindsight, or replacing them with new. I had sugar stored, and after 11 years it appears to be a solid lump. Before I toss it, I'll open the mylar bag and check if it is still usable. The mylar bag is still pulled tight around it so it appears to be sealed, and it was kept on the concrete floor in a cool location. I've never heard of problems with long term storage before, so this might be one I rotate a little sooner than the rest.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 11 2019 at 4:21am
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Intense-Spring-Storm-Plaster-Plains-Record-April-Snow?cm_ven=cat6-widget

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/04/wesley-is-set-to-be-one-of-heaviest.html

https://oilprice.com/

DJ-Since the food-chain is made up of several elements one piece of that chain breaking up can have dramatic consequences.

Not only is weather effecting harvests (a.o. in the U.S. bur the Netherlands is #2 agriculture exporter in the world-we are moving to a second year of drought) also energy-prices going up will effect food-prices.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 13 2019 at 3:10am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDJUVc1-om8

Paul Beckwith:

I chat about ongoing US Midwest misery from a deep, persistent jet stream trough. After a cold snowy winter, a “bomb cyclone” dumped up to 5 feet of snow over a wide area; then another hit the region; the forecast indicates the possibility of a third event. These storms occur over the ocean as well known “nor’easter’s”, but rarely over land. Ongoing rain and snow from ongoing storm trains flooded many farms, and destroyed stored grains. Normal April planting is not happening. Not good for our food supply.

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/04/2019-is-year-when-farming-industry.html and https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Serious-Tornado-Threat-and-Near-Louisiana-Saturday?cm_ven=cat6-widget

DJ-Several parts of the globe in extreme weather conditions will effect global foodsupply.

The bad news is that-given the exponential scenario http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/blue-ocean-event-consequences.html the future only looks worse.

When people realize how their future looks like (short and violent) panic is to be expected.

A sensible thing would be governments setting up distribution networks-since politics simply ignore the problem (they created) "things will get out of control" very fast....
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 35452
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 23 2019 at 9:59pm
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down