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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Twilight Zone... The Shelter
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    Posted: July 02 2006 at 8:49am
I just watched the classic Twilight Zone The Shelter.  If you are not familiar with it, the plot is as follows. In the 50's one family on a street has a fallout shelter. Everyone on the street knows this.  The owner of the shelter warned everyone they needed a shelter, and his shelter could only hold his family.  It is (mistakenly) announced that missiles are on the way, so all of the neighbors demand entry to the shelter.  They have just broken into the shelter effectively killing everyone when the radio announces that the incoming missiles are only satellites.

I think this is a great study on survival.

What do you think you would do?  Which character do you think you identify with?

 

I would be helpless in the case of a nuclear attack.  If I am to be the hero of my own life, I would like to believe I would be standing guard of my neighbor’s shelter so somebody would survive. (My current plan is to wait on the roof with my best whiskey.)
 
edited to add: I'm not sure which forum to put this in. Moderators feel free to move it if you feel it belongs in a different forum.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 9:42am
Interesting topic. I don't think I would break into someones shelter, I am passive. I agree that I would like to think of myself as someone to watch over my neighbor. I have never been close to starvation or dying of thirst so I don't know what my survival mode will be like. I guess that is the point at which we all learn of our true human nature. That scares me a bit.

(I am thankful that I have been given a new nature although the old one tugs hard at times)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 11:16am
DISPENSER 4 HIR, as you point out in the twilight zone series, the panic and survival of the biggest and most well armed will be the order of the day.People will be at their most base selves at this point. I don't personally remember this but my mother often laughed at the outright panic people showed at the radio show by Orson Wells. That wasn't even real, can you imagine 2 weeks into a pandemic and all supplies are long gone.people are hungry, they have kids, etc. It won't be a pretty picture. JMHO. jo
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 11:35am
I would break into someone shelter for the sake of my son. Children , parenthood gives you the feeling that you have the right to invade someone else safety for their protection .   

The lesson here is if you are planning on prepping keep it quiet

Prepping will be considered hoarding

Hoarding , the words entitles those to take what you are hoarding
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 12:26pm
Deanna,
I hope that there aren't as many that will have to choose to try and take what someone else has stored. People will kill, when faced with intruders who intend to take their food and harm their families. It's not a good scenario any way you look at it, if you didn't prepare and the flu doesn't get you, you will starve or die trying to take food from someone who has it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 1:41pm
Yes, and if you were killed, who would take care of your child?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 2:45pm
If I had not prepared and been killed while trying to take food/water from someone, I guess that it didn't much matter to me or I would have prepared so that I could have taken care of my child myself.
 
I am not going to let someone break into my home and take my food or water or whatever without a fight. The point I am trying to make here is it is not my or anyone elses responsibilty to find out if the intruder has family obligations. It's a moot point then as I will have my own. I will share willingly, but they will TAKE when my fingers stop twitching on the trigger.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 2:50pm
The facts are that breaking into the shelter doomed everyone because nobody had a shelter then. The act of taking somebody's food could doom them, because nobody knows how long you need to stay isolated.
I want to alert people, but I do not want to be put in the hard position of defending what is mine.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 3:36pm
I have some extra food I could give out, but as the word got out that I was giving away food, everyone would be standing at the door wanting or demanding a handout, and all the food I have would not last long.
As I have said before, if you give someone a meal, soon they would be depending on you for their food supply. Better to keep to yourself.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 5:19pm
In an earlier "Sharing" topic, another forum member suggested leaving the food on the doorstep overnight, so the folks would not know who gave it to them.
 
I thought that was a great idea,.  I too have "giveaway food" but would be concerned about being inundated - or as someone else pointed out - the target for thieves.   So it's the overnight doorstep idea for me.l
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Points: 46 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Irene Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 6:26pm

I'm not really convinced that food shortages are likely because pandemic waves will likely only last about 6 weeks each and are unlikely to hit all locations at the same time.

I do believe that it would be dangerous to go grocery shopping though because of the risk of exposure. I suspect that after the first wave, almost everyone who hadn't initially prepped will be prepping for future waves.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 6:54pm
The effect of influenza on individual communities will be relatively prolonged - six to eight weeks, though possibly up to twelve weeks.
 
If twelve weeks is a possibility, I'm prepping for at least double that because if it's as lethal then as it is in it's current form then the supply chain will be disrupted from lost labor alone.Not to mention that if some supplies do become available  the price may be more than anyone will have.
 
 
http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_flu-pandemic-timeline.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 6:56pm
It is too bad that this will probably happen. I have tried to inform many in my community because I want them to be prepared.  By doing this I unfortunately have exposed myself to a risk.  Hopefully they will prepare
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 8:55pm
Originally posted by Irene Irene wrote:

I'm not really convinced that food shortages are likely because pandemic waves will likely only last about 6 weeks each and are unlikely to hit all locations at the same time.

 
Hi Irene,
 
After a major blizzard hit the Northeast, ShopRite's sheves were absolutely empty for about 5 days!  Hurricaine Floyd left us without food for 2 weeks and no water for one month.
 
The stores now adays just don't have large stockrooms.  What they have, is out on the shelves.  So I do think we may see shortages in large population centers. 
 
K.
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Points: 46 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Irene Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 11:47pm

That does seem strange to me. I've lived in a number of large cities in Canada, all of whom get bizzards regularly every winter. Major roads and bus routes are usually cleared by snowplows within a day or two of the storm's passing.

I've never been in a supermarket that has seemed less than fully stocked, both just before a blizzard and then again right afterwards. Never.
 
Perhaps empty shelves are an issue in blizzards in rural areas because of the distance one must travel to reach a store? I can see that the snow plowing might take longer. Or maybe we just have more warehouses of food here. Don't really know.
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Points: 46 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Irene Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2006 at 11:55pm
Also, don't forget that it's not just grocery stores which have stores of food. Restaurants do as well.
 
The time of year will also affect the degree of food shortage as well. During a pandemic, if vegetables have been planted they will continue to grow as will fruit growing on trees.
 
Then don't forget the people who are ill with the flu. I doubt they will be eating much.
 
 
 
Edited to add: I do see a lot of wisdom in preparing for a worse case scenario. That doesn't mean I'm convinced though that the worse case scenario is the most likely scenario.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2006 at 6:02am
Irene,
I don't think you are taking into account the mad rush to buy what ever is on the shelves when the pandemic is offically announced. We are dependant upon the grocery stores for pretty much everything, in 1918, they bought very little and grew or made most of what they consumed or used. I live in Fla, at the words hurricane or severe storm, the shelves go empty real quick. Jo
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Points: 46 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Irene Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2006 at 7:59am
I don 't think the pandemic will be officially announced until we are several days into it and there are thousands dead. Don't forget that even "evidence of significant human to human transmission" is only defined as phase 5.
 
What struck me when I read the descriptions of cities in 1918 in John Barry's book was how crowded  conditions were with many people living crammed together, sharing outdoor privies, etc. It must not have left much room to store food. I can't see root cellars in tenaments either and not sure if many would have had iceboxes and iceboxes wouldn't have worked if ice wasn't being delivered regularly during a flu outbreak.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2006 at 1:14am

As far as the question about the Twilight Zone, I did see that one. I would not try to survive a all out nuclear war. I dont believe what we would have left would be worth it.  A minimal one would be different. I think that people would rise to the occastion. Being around one another would be a source of comfort. That is the sad thing with the virus, you have to fear being around your friends and neighbors.

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