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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Nepal - 14 persons die unknown disease

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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 5:10pm
Argyll, good job.  Skimming over that, I noticed a contact email of
 
 
Gettingready, excellent idea with the U.S. Embassy.  Good job.
 
Since all of them have emails, feel free to send an inquiry on our behalf.  A short email can go a long way in getting things done. 
 
 
 
Smile
 
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 5:23pm
Bloggers???   Give me a break.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 5:31pm

Glad to help, Albert - I've also got contact numbers/e-mail from the Nepal news group that broke the story and own the main newspapers.  Though that might be too much, too soon.  But I'll hang onto them.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 5:45pm

There are 3 schools in Bhaktapur that have been suspended, though the article doesn't say why.  Bhaktapur is 35 km south east of Katmandu in Nepal, and is in the general area that we are looking at, but MAY OR MAY NOT BE the very same location.  I don't want to alarm anyone, as this may be due to panic/rumors circulating within the area, with parents keeping their children home from school as a precaution.  It may be totally unrelated, as well.  But we do need to check it out!!!!!!!!!!!

3 schools suspended
Sunday, August 20,2006

BHAKTAPUR: In the absence of students in schools, the District Education Office, Bhaktapur has suspended three schools. The suspended schools are Kopila Primary School, Jeti Primary School and Laxmi Devi Primary School, Bageswori, said Section Officer of the District Education Office Bir Singh Dhami. The physical property of the three suspended schools has been handed over to the local community and teachers have been transferred to other schools.


THE HIMALAYAN TIMES |

http://www.southasianmedia.net/cnn.cfm?id=318630&category=Social%20Sectors&Country=NEPAL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 5:49pm

A thought just occured to me:  why would they be "handing over the property" and transferring teachers?  Could they be shutting these schools permanently due to population changes in the area?  It seems a little extreme.  What you all of you think?  Should I delete my post?  I really don't want people to getting the tranquilizers out.Ermm

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 5:55pm
Gettingready, nice job.  
 
"Though that might be too much, too soon".  Are you kidding???   We're talking about AFT -- Full steam ahead. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 5:58pm
LOL  OKEE-DOKEE BOSS!LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 6:23pm
I don't  know if this is helpful, but I thought it was interesting.
 
 
Pigs die of mysterious disease in eastern Nepal

5/3/2006 12:25

Over 2,000 pigs have died of an unidentified disease in some villages of Morang district in eastern Nepal in the past two months, an official said Sunday.
The disease, first seen in Dangihat and Karanari village of Morang district, some 300 km east of Kathmandu, claimed the lives of over 1,000 pigs in Letang village alone, Shambhu Yadav, an official of the District Livestock Services Office (DLSO), said, adding that eight boars and four buffaloes also died of the disease.
"The disease is believed to be air borne but we have not launched any investigation into it," Yadav noted.
Earlier, it was suspected that swine fever was the cause of the deaths but outbreak of avian flu in India has terrified the farmers of Morang district located close to India.
Farmers have been disposing the carcass of diseased animals in the nearby forest and the environment has been polluted there, according to Yadav.
Fever, dysentery, yawning and lack of appetite are the symptoms of the disease, Yadav added.

 Xinhua news
 
http://tinyurl.com/pc4ta
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 6:31pm
Thanks gettingready.  Fun times ahead!   LOL
 
Muriel, that's a good find.   h5n1 could be endemic all throughout those districts of Nepal.  
 
 
 
  
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 6:33pm
Muriel,
 
Interesting post. I ran across this too in my research. What is also interesting is that the CDC had some concerns abouts pigs and H5NI. I mentioned  this in one of the threads a while back (not sure which one, though).  It may have been the thread with the CDC and type A influenza strains.
 
Albert: will follow the WHO email lead on behalf of AFT. This story seems to be taking some turns and the information coming out of there warrants continued investigation. Keep up the good work everyone -- you all are donig a great job verifying sources. Argyll.
 
Note: Here is a link on the CDC and Avian Influenza. Slight mention of pigs.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 6:41pm
A better map showing the districts - The one marked KTM is Katmandu, while the one marked "B" is Bhaktapur (on one side of Katmandu, where the 3 schools are closing) and Nuwakot is on the other side (where the 14 deaths have been reported). Morang (pigs) is at the southeast end.
 
 
District Map of Nepal 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mieke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 7:10pm
1. Instead of just smashing all kinds of questions or data into this thread, why don't SOME of you do a thread-search or a forum-search first? It's ridiculous imo to post a newsarticle in here about an unrelated geographical location where they closed schools due to lack of pupils (students), as the article clearly explained. Why the hype here? Why the random postings as if SOME of you are totally freaked out by the thought of a serious disease maybe occurring thousands of miles away from your homes? Is this the first time in your life you ever heard a little about avian influenza? Why is that short text of the few online newsarticles of this past weekend (maybe 3 or 4 sources, alltogether) posted in this thread meanwhile at least twenty times and by a variety of posters? Don't you guys READ previous replies here?


2. I don't own the place, so that is not the issue and please save everyone's time and thread-space here by refraining from telling me  I can't give you orders, because I know.


3. Using the board's searchfunction and going a year back (all forums), there are 84 thread-results now for the keyword "Nepal". So why do most of you know the least about that country? Please do your homework and research first before posting the most ridiculous ideas when it comes down to that country: NEPAL.
http://www.avianflutalk.com/search_results_posts.asp?SearchID=20060820183437&KW=Nepal


4. Here is the reaction I just received from a friend of mine, a western woman who has been living and working on Nepal's countryside and in its mountains for the past 15 years or so. We mainly know eachother in view of hiking in the Himalayas and foreign tourism in Nepal. I showed her the news re. Nuwakot, this is what she says:

~ ~ ~

Hi Mieke,  I also read the article yesterday about illness in Nuwakot and,
of course, the first thing that comes to mind is "bird flu".  The unfortunate truth is that it is not uncommon to have people die in Nepal from "unknown" diseases - it happens far too frequently.  Problem is with the
basic health care infrastructure there, sometimes it takes a while to
identify some fairly common illnesses that would be recognized instantly in
a more developed country.  I think we can be assured however that the Travel Clinic people (CIWEC) in Kathmandu will already be on the job and involving other international experts in this field to find answers quickly to this particular situation.  I think we should let those experts deal with it and not start speculation that could result in a panic....nobody needs that at the moment. 

Based on information given about this virus previously, it would seem that the immediate risk to foreign travellers is minimal.  The high risk segment of the population are those local people who work with the poultry on a daily basis and are responsible for killing and cleaning the birds.  From anything that I have read, there have been no proven cases of direct transmission of the virus from live chickens through casual contact with a human - nor through people eating cooked poultry.
 Tourists travelling in Nepal are already aware, for the most part, of the
need for greater attention to personal hygiene to avoid intestinal  problems.  There are also lots of warnings out regarding eating only well cooked  and freshly prepared food, served hot because of the lack of refrigeration in many places.  Indeed a large percentage of visitors to Nepal become temporary vegetarians - although well prepared meat dishes are readily available in the Cities.  On the trekking routes, there is very little meat served in most areas - even if you want to have it!

Nuwakot is not a major source of commercial poultry products.  But, of
course, many village and rural families keep chickens for their own use.
 Nepal has been watching the Bird Flu outbreaks quite carefully over the
past several years and, I think it was last year, banned the importation of
poultry stock from several countries where there had been outbreaks.  Of
course, as you have pointed out, the spread of the virus can happen quite
naturally - perhaps through bird migration....although I don't know if this has been proven.
The news has been made public regarding the"unknown" illness.  Others
besides us will have read the same articles.  Without all the facts, I think
it would be irresponsible to guess what the problem is - no doubt the media will do that anyway.  If this really is Bird Flu, it won't be long being
identified and there will be lots of publicity because of the huge numbers
of chickens that will be slaughtered.  Chickens are everywhere in Nepal,
even in the city of Kathmandu people can keep live chickens on their
property for eggs and meat....

This would be another devastating blow for Nepali people - let's hope the
illness is stopped quickly and found to be something different than Avian
Flu.  In my opinion, if this is Avian Flu, then once again the poorest of the
Nepali people and their poultry flocks are going to be the ones at greatest
risk - not foreign tourists.

~ ~ ~

5. Any of you aware that a civil war has been going on in all of Nepal ever since 1996? And that at least some "peace" was brought back only since May of this year? That large parts of the country have virtually no infrastructure? Did you ever hear of the "caste system" in Nepal and India, and what it means in daily life? The lack of health care? The lack of women's rights? The lack of schooleducation? The Maoists of Nepal (and India)? The cruel practises with child trafficking, or with selling your own wife, daughter or sister to the sex-trade in India or Thailand? The general illiteracy? The five thousand other nationwide problems there at least, that you've probably never encountered in the USofA?
BUT: there are a great many efforts tóó to improve the situation and the conditions under which Nepali citizens have to live. If you want to know some more about the problems in that country, I suggest you surf to the website of UNICEF and look up its data for Nepal as they're quite "telling".

As for the situation in Nuwakot: I believe that's being covered and investigated by people who are experts enough to deal with those problems. And trying to make Moriarty, the US ambassador, a marionet for your cause will probably nót work because if there's any embassy thoroughly informed about what's going on inside Nepal, it's the US Embassy in Kathmandu. Yes sir!


bye! going to sleep now; almost 04:10 am here meanwhile....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 7:21pm
Mieke, thanks for being such an expert on Nepal, us simple minded people really need that kind of condescension.

Most people are aware of the situation you describe in Nepal, and, frankly, it sounds like exactly the type of environs that could give rise to a pandemic.

Wow, I'm so glad the locals will have it under control, with all the strife and broken down infrastructure.  I live in a place where people live in tents and barely any infrascructure remaining.  Believe me, an outbreak of ANYTHING would be hard to quell here.  And I'm sure we have more hand sanitizer in the U.S. than they have in Nepal.

I think most would agree that if Nepal has all kinds of 'unknown' illnesses like this then NOBODY there has a hnadle on ANYTHING. IMHO.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 7:39pm
I am having a whole lotta trouble following this post.  Can someone sumarize it for me? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 7:47pm
Ok. Have checked into the site a few times, to do a little reading, but have been 'taking a break'. Now... I guess break time is done. So much has happened. Wow.
 
First off. Amazing work!!!!! Clap Med, standingfirm, Albert, everyone who has worked there butts off so far on this, I wish I could shake your hand (don't worry, cleaned them with antibacterial soap.. a little avianfluforum humor Smile )
 
I have only found 5 articles so far on this, and they all basically repeat eachother.
 
I have a hunch I will share with you all. Maybe, just maybe this isn't BF. But something else that is creeping up on us (just as bad). For those of you who read my ' deadly puzzle- theory/idea' in the discussion area, you'll know what I am getting at. Scary.
 
I'll try and chip in on the workload on this now. Not sure how I can help, but will try... 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 7:52pm
    Hi guys hope everyone had had a great weekend.

After I posted the find I found on the 14 people dead, I have been thinking, The signs at death reminded me of Ebola? have been pondering on this and wondering, just a thought. I am sure no expert in the medical field,however, in college one time I had to do major research on Ebola and when people do die from ebola same symptoms??
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 8:00pm
Good point, Pebbles
 
Ebola symptoms:
a range of symptoms, usually including vomiting, diarrhea, general body pain, internal and external bleeding, and fever
 
and more
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 8:04pm
Just to be clear about this, mostly for mieke, no one in the entire thread has said that this development in Nepal signifies that a pandemic has begun. I believe that at the outset what was said is that this warrants more investigation.

Mieke, what do you believe that we are talking about here? We are investigating and seeking confirmation of an "unprecedented outbreak" of a mystery illness.

After everything that could be done was completed for the day some gave background information on the area. Who here said anything about a concern re: poultry exports of Nuwakot? If there is a pandemic at any point in time it isn't going to come from poultry exports.

I am tired and I am going to bed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 8:05pm

NOTE:  this is Last year's news - not 2006

Mysterious disease tolls 9 in eastern Nepal


KATHMANDU, Aug 28, 2005 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- Mysterious disease tolls reached nine after two more people died on Saturday of the disease that broke out in a eastern district in Nepal, a local government officer confirmed here Sunday.

"The two of them died within hours after being infected by the disease on Saturday night in Beltar area of Udayapur district, some 300 km east of Kathmandu," Jeevan Prasad Oli, chief district officer, told reporters.

The outbreak of the unknown disease already claimed the lives of seven patients in Beltar, Sudarpur and Siddipur villages of the district in the past few weeks.

The symptoms included high fever, headache as well as bleeding from the nose and vomiting blood, Oli noted, adding, "Patients infected with the disease have been taken to a hospital in Dharan city for treatment."

A three-member medical team has already been dispatched to the disease affected area, Oli added.

I put this article here to show that there may have been a lot of episodes with mystery illnesses, here in Nepal, and lots of other places.
 
http://tinyurl.com/n62qq
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 8:09pm
"I think most would agree that if Nepal has all kinds of 'unknown' illnesses like this then NOBODY there has a hnadle on ANYTHING. IMHO."

Well said southern lady.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 8:14pm

Hi Pebbles, the concern was that dogs and chickens were dying. Since Ebola is not usually fatal to animals, nor transmitted from animals, that ruled out a lot of possibilities.   Diseases don't usually jump from animals to humans.  This also rules out most unkown illnesses.

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 8:15pm
Ok, please everyone forgive me, for I am not a medical 'person'. Do not understand a lot of the things that the more medically inclined people have discussed here (I say this as a big pat on the back to them). So, on that note, in my efforts to try and figure out what the heck is going on in Nepal, I will post anything that seems relevant in regards to this report. Truly hope that what I post may help in some way or another.
 
Here is an article on: "A vaccine for Japanese encephalitis was used in an immunisation campaign without a `bridging study'. "
 
Sorry, am I grasping at straws..???
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 8:20pm
Muriel,
 
Excellent post! Do you have an article or thoughts on what this mysterious disease was from last year?
 
(This is positively frustrating)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 8:22pm
mieke - I don't know of any "ridiculous" things (as you say) we have posted about Nepal.  Frankly, I believe all of these posts are relevant to the subject - the multiple news articles are necessary to verify a story that many of us weren't sure was legitimate.  The school closings aren't that far from the district where the deaths were reported, of which 7 were children.  As for events in Nepal's past, like the death of the pigs, I don't know if everyone has the time to do a search and read through 84 threads on the subject.  I don't see any "hype" or "freaking out" here, as you put it.  I appreciate your sharing the letter from your friend and any information you have on the situation would also be welcomed by everyone here.  But how much trouble is it to be pleasant about it?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 9:18pm
this is from orbitz... they want me to change search.

and they have boxes to check for near by airports.

 
My Search
   
Find flights by: airline / stops / price Jet Airways
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 9:20pm
  now they are showing they have one flight
 
$296 + $40 taxes & fees = $336  per person


Leave

Tue, Aug 22

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Depart:
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 9:34pm
For the record, I just wanted to say that I really appreciate all of the hard work and efforts the forum members have displayed on this particular thread. It is an important thread, one that could potentially change the situation with avian influenza. I may see a link or map a half of dozen times, and if you take the time and it is of meaning and value to you in understanding this particular situation, then I highly respect your right to to post it. I would never, ever describe you hard work as "ridiculous." So,thank you very much for your perserverance. I for one truly appreciate it. And, keep bringing the ideas to the table -- one day the pieces to this AI puzzle will all come together and we will have quite a picture to see. Argyll.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 9:49pm
argyll,
Will you be on for awhile? Can I talk to you? My Email is in my profile... Thank you.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 9:59pm
Posted: Yesterday at 9:36pm
 
 
 .......................................................................................................
 
that there were so many different strainswith different symptoms, they thought they were dealing with different sicknesses across the country and world, and were often misdiagnosing it because of that.
............................................................................................
 
Influenza hangs out with some meanies....
 
GENETIC ENGINEERING OF
NEGATIVE STRAND RNA
VIRUSES

INFLUENZA
• RABIES
• MEASLES
• MUMPS
• PARAINFLUENZA
TYPES 1,2 AND 3
• RESPIRATORY
SYNCYTIAL
• HUMAN
METAPNEUMO
EBOLA VIRUS
•VESICULAR
STOMATITIS
•NEWCASTLE DISEASE
•SENDAI
•RINDERPEST
•CANINE DISTEMPER
•THOGOTO
•BUNYA
•SIMIAN VIRUS 5
•BORNA DISEASE

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 10:04pm
Albert "...Diseases don't usually jump from animals to humans."
.........................................................................................................
 
Albert, can you help me find a post (mine)... it was from Hong Kong Med, 2 Doc's with Chinese names. 
 
They wrote that the 1918 influenza strain jumped right from birds to humans.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 10:05pm
Hope4Us,
 
I checked your bio and I didn't see your email listed there? I would be happy to talk to you. Argyll.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 10:12pm

edit

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 10:31pm

Albert,

Thanks for letting me know. I was unaware of that policy. Argyll.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2006 at 11:06pm
Anharra, try searching for it using the "search' menu.  Let us know if you're able to find it. 
 
Mieke, Good job on getting a first hand story.  Please extend our appreciation to your friend.  Also - Welcome aboard.    
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 2:41am
Looks like the heading to the article has changed a bit. Couldn't copy, but here is the link.
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 5:02am
I was hoping to wake uptoday and see this thread long gone.  As far as the schools closing, I know the first sign of BF here my kids are staying home so perhaps they have done the same there.  To me this could be a major red flag.  Can we contact their school district official?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 5:02am
I was hoping to wake up today and see this thread long gone.  As far as the schools closing, I know the first sign of BF here my kids are staying home so perhaps they have done the same there.  To me this could be a major red flag.  Can we contact their school district official?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 5:10am
Cruiser,
 
I believe some tried to call last night, but couldn't get an operator. Today may be a different story, though. It is interesting the bit about the schools and I find it very tell-tale.
 
I can't help but wonder when the major networks are going to pick this up. I wonder which one will. I am sure their reporters are on top of this story, and are probably itching to get it to press. Guess everything takes time. I have 5 kids, and I think I am fortunate not to live Nepal right now. I can only imagine what they must be experiencing now. I hope it ends soon and peace will return to their country.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote doabirds Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 5:10am
    LET the News organizations do their jobbs, fire off an email to your favorite news organization and ask them for the story, They have the resources and time. Even if the airport and some schools were closed we need a credible source to verify and explain the situation. No sense in speculating.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 5:11am
Originally posted by mieke mieke wrote:


5. Any of you aware that a civil war has been going on in all of Nepal ever since 1996? And that at least some "peace" was brought back only since May of this year? That large parts of the country have virtually no infrastructure? Did you ever hear of the "caste system" in Nepal and India, and what it means in daily life? The lack of health care? The lack of women's rights? The lack of schooleducation? The Maoists of Nepal (and India)? The cruel practises with child trafficking, or with selling your own wife, daughter or sister to the sex-trade in India or Thailand? The general illiteracy? The five thousand other nationwide problems there at least, that you've probably never encountered in the USofA?
BUT: there are a great many efforts tóó to improve the situation and the conditions under which Nepali citizens have to live. If you want to know some more about the problems in that country, I suggest you surf to the website of UNICEF and look up its data for Nepal as they're quite "telling".

As for the situation in Nuwakot: I believe that's being covered and investigated by people who are experts enough to deal with those problems. And trying to make Moriarty, the US ambassador, a marionet for your cause will probably nót work because if there's any embassy thoroughly informed about what's going on inside Nepal, it's the US Embassy in Kathmandu. Yes sir!


bye! going to sleep now; almost 04:10 am here meanwhile....



Early here too and I decided to get some sleep and must tear myself away from this for awhile to get down to "the lab".  Also to ultrasound so I can say hi to our newcoming baby.

1) We most certainly appreciate the research and some background here. And this is opinion : but I knew very little about Nepal 48 hours ago. Jhetta has commented on water and sanitation and I did some research which shows that this area we are talking of is a nasty place.

http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-29131-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html

It is no surprise that "the big players" are going to step in as well as the ones who work for them, or monitor situations.  It is possible they may have missed this one and of course a chance they didnt. Embarassing. Yes, it could be for some and we are often told "the people who handle this type of thing are taking care of it. Already would have known about. Did know about it. Have decided it doesn't exist or is not worth of concern. Have been doing this forever and if it was anything serioius, would have caught it on their radar" The place is in civil chaos. This is the leadership "handling the situation." Considering the filth in the rivers, considering the sex traffic, the drugs, the legions of diseases, someone is not handling something.

There will be attacks on the site, the posters, and most of all an effort made to either deny or make the incident of no consequence.  Official people with the alphabet after their names will say - people die from unknown causes there all the time.

Ok. First, I have posted CIA database telling us we have a nasty insurgency going on here. I am sure that everyone is not killed by bullets. Second, I just posted a link concerning the the water and sanitation situation (prompted by Jhetta's post) and it is Nepal's worst santiation problem. Looks at the number of people with parasites and diseases. You have AIDS here, you had SARS, you have filth. So people are going to have a wide spectrum of disease.

And reports of thousands of birds dying (I believe). We live in a time of Avian spreading to people, and the people here are afraid eat poultry.

Now, to go to the extent of actually having someone step forward on the basis of a few line article where people have 1) fever 2) blood from nose and mouth and try to diagnose the illness as well as saying "I don't think we have a problem (letters after names) does not negate the fact 14 people (if this is a valid report 14 people died of something) in two weeks that there indeed may be a problem.

It is premature to form any conclusions at this point without data and more research. For one, if this is an outbreak, common sense, we are going to see more deaths if it is something for us to worry about.

Yet, the fact is, we have a cesspool situation which is the ideal breeding ground for something nasty, fond of humans, and contagious to develop.
And secondly, what will be different when the real deal pops up in some remote area?

It is good to see the users here teaming together and gathering data. Each person who is willing, and some are not professional network data gatherers or analysists are pitching in and that is impressive. Even if this incident is total vapor, can't you see that this same kind of teamwork will be here when the real deal, if it happens, occurs. People are going to make mistakes. They are going to make inappropriate remarks, and I would not expect everyone to have read 100 links and be informed before making a post.

I have noted, and will tread lightly here, that competition is keen in the world of information gathering. We have organizations with government contracts for 20 years looking at websites who on rare occasions may actually turn up something decent, despite the fact other groups have highly organized and highly funded companies doing the same things.

Although I am expressing opinions here, I think they are logical.

comment : You never know what is going to be relevant. Basic investigation common sense can often take something which seems irrelevant and it can be a key to solving a case or situation. We could have 14 people poisoned from the water in two weeks. Well, we know the % (see article of intestinal parasites in the population).

Yet, I also know, from a personal conversation that people were terrified of Avian and catching it. How solid are the two massive bird death stories?
Why are these people afraid?
 
So, in the interest of our survival, no one needs to win any prizes here, we are just trying to gather information. There is rivalry, politics, and as always money involved.

I admire Albert's handling of this forum and I don't say that just to make Albert feel good. The Internet is brutal, competitive, and when any one gets too much attention, others get less.

I truly admire people here in general. There are some quality research people. When someone comes through who is in the ozone, the data does not check out, there is some kind of selfish agenda which becomes more clearly obvious, then there are rules and standards which kick in which maintain the integrity of the site.

There is humanity here as well. This is not just a bulletin board to post facts. People care about each other. People are edgy and nervous and looking for more information than they can find on the media. And truly, the media is not alway correct. They completely make up stories at times, put spins on things which make no sense given the facts, and this has happened in main stream reporting. Events which never happened from big names such as CNN, MSNBC, and although some take shots at, Fox, as well.

In a battle, any battle, there is a time when we must take pause, take a breath, evaluate where we are, and what we have and do not have.
Feel free to express your opinions on this, but I still feel to believe we have a mystery here. People die from unknown causes all the time. That does not mean if someone goes to the police or FBI with a case that is odd, it should not be investigated.

Did this happen? Well, we have a fairly reliable local paper who published it did. Is it continuing to happen? Does the fact that local government state they are not aware of a problem mean it did not or there is no problem?

These people are in the middle of a civil war. It is also a breeding ground for disease. It is definitely the kind of place something could happen.

Now what are 14 people to anyone when thousands may die in other world events every day (earthquakes-natural disasters).  Whenever, and if ever you have 14 people (if verified) coughing and spurting blood and dying this counts.

Notice the "totals" all the deaths from Bird Flu in Indonesia? Now look at how many people have it and are dying from it right now? What are the percentages here? Do we have a pattern of increased infection?

Thank you Jhetta for the comment on the water. It is so wretched 14 people may have drunk from a single well and died. Did they?

How much data will be released formally on this? Will the media (main media touch it?). Could you start up a Loch Ness monster on the net by carefully submitting a story through the cracks and generate something like this? Sure, it's possible.

Data - and facts and deaths - if this is something gruesome then you will see airports shut down and more drastic measures happen. If its 14 people who died from well water, then not.

As I have posted and agree with Albert, always go to source if you can. Every news report has a spin. That, is at least that I, and quite a few others I think are trying to do.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mamasjob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 5:13am
Good Mornin'~  Yes, I have been watching this thread carefully, too.  thanks to all who are participating..:)
 
As for the school closing article....I think I remember reading that they were closing the schools due to low enrollment?  However, I could be wrong about that.  I am going to go re-read. 
 
 I, too, became very nervous about the headline..."3 schools closed" until I read the body of the article.  I would imagine that would be a VERY big red flag if they closed them due to "unknown illness". 
 
Thanks again for all who are being vigliant and thoughtful.  I hope with this new day we will see information which will shed new light and clarity on this situation.  I feel so badly for those impoverished families that depend on poultry for their livelihoods.  Let's just pray it is a quicky fleeting and extinguished sickness!
 
Be blessed~  JD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 5:20am
Originally posted by medclinician medclinician wrote:

Originally posted by ops144 ops144 wrote:

 
i am just courious i have access to some good anti terrisom alerts through my work so i was just wondering about your job.....
 
if ya cant say no biggie dont want ya to get in trouble....


No problem. I would check it out. I have avoided the T word on purpose. This may deserve a closer look.  If this can be verified, then someone local needs to go in and check it out. Makes sense.. right.
 
no no no i am not sayin that ..........just that i get intresting info peridocially..i doubt this has anything to do with that at all.
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Originally posted by gettingready gettingready wrote:

There are 3 schools in Bhaktapur that have been suspended, though the article doesn't say why.  Bhaktapur is 35 km south east of Katmandu in Nepal, and is in the general area that we are looking at, but MAY OR MAY NOT BE the very same location.  I don't want to alarm anyone, as this may be due to panic/rumors circulating within the area, with parents keeping their children home from school as a precaution.  It may be totally unrelated, as well.  But we do need to check it out!!!!!!!!!!!

3 schools suspended
Sunday, August 20,2006

BHAKTAPUR: In the absence of students in schools, the District Education Office, Bhaktapur has suspended three schools. The suspended schools are Kopila Primary School, Jeti Primary School and Laxmi Devi Primary School, Bageswori, said Section Officer of the District Education Office Bir Singh Dhami. The physical property of the three suspended schools has been handed over to the local community and teachers have been transferred to other schools.


THE HIMALAYAN TIMES |

http://www.southasianmedia.net/cnn.cfm?id=318630&category=Social%2
0Sectors&Country=NEPAL


No tranquilizers, but in another previous post I mentioned the fact, as has been said by the FBI at times, "don't try to evaluate your own data in terms of how it may fit into the big picture. If it mirrors things we get from 10,000 people and is on every newstand you might reconsider reporting it; but combined with other data this could be significant. Anyone could rip it up, but based on the given that the primary spreaders of disease are children, and the primary infected in an epidemic will probably be children, this could be a piece of the puzzle. Is this area a growing area or dying area? Appears to be, although severly contaminated, pretty growing to me (need figures to back this up).

We know that if there are "problems" here they will shut down the schools and public buildings. It is like the bird story. Is it relevant? These may be the only type clues we get on this. The local government may not just come out and annnounce - we have a problem.

Just need more data.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 5:56am
Originally posted by Muriel Muriel wrote:

I don't  know if this is helpful, but I thought it was interesting.
 
 
Pigs die of mysterious disease in eastern Nepal

5/3/2006 12:25

Over 2,000 pigs have died of an unidentified disease in some villages of Morang district in eastern Nepal in the past two months, an official said Sunday.
The disease, first seen in Dangihat and Karanari village of Morang district, some 300 km east of Kathmandu, claimed the lives of over 1,000 pigs in Letang village alone, Shambhu Yadav, an official of the District Livestock Services Office (DLSO), said, adding that eight boars and four buffaloes also died of the disease.
"The disease is believed to be air borne but we have not launched any investigation into it," Yadav noted.
Earlier, it was suspected that swine fever was the cause of the deaths but outbreak of avian flu in India has terrified the farmers of Morang district located close to India.
Farmers have been disposing the carcass of diseased animals in the nearby forest and the environment has been polluted there, according to Yadav.
Fever, dysentery, yawning and lack of appetite are the symptoms of the disease, Yadav added.

 Xinhua news
 
http://tinyurl.com/pc4ta


The death of a thousand of anything is serious. When you look at some of the bird flu deaths, you get two birds dead in Michigan and we are boycotted by 3 countries.

Pigs are mixing vessels for the jump of a virus from animal to people. This is perhaps over simplified, but dying pigs can lead to dying people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 6:02am
We must never lose sight of the fact that what we post may have a bearing on what someone may base life altering decisions on. We may think that we are posting a trivial statement or supposition but to someone less informed (and I am still not that astute) and new to this event that statement or supposition could be absolute truth. Ultimately, each individual is responsible for their own choices but they base their choices on the only information available to them and that may be this forum.

I apologize to annie and mieke for being abrupt with both of you. I should have recognized my own need to step back from the thread earlier than I did. It is difficult to not become passionate about these instances of acute events.
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