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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Who Has now raised level to 4

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francojames View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 27 2009 at 1:44pm
BBC News 9 pm  WHO has now raised level to phase 4
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gady71 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 1:52pm
CONFIRMED , CNN.TV confirmed too. 
Mexican HEALTH department confirm that the WHO it will rise PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL AT 4
                                WHO raised PANDEMIC LEVEL  to PHASE 4
I do apologize for my poor english. Prepare for the Worst and Hope for the Best!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 1:56pm
I just logged on to post the same thing - I checked the WHO situation updates a few minutes ago and they're officially at level 4. I used to get a lot of reassurance from seeing the 3 flashing away when I came here, and now I'm sitting here with some serious goosebumps  Confused
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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote momasaurus7 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 2:00pm
The raising of the alert level makes me think things are worse than they're saying.  Since according to the official numbers it's not bad enough to warrant a change. 
We must always fear the wicked. But there is another kind of evil that we must fear the most, and that is the indifference of good men.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Smaug Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 2:11pm
We should be at level 5. What a bunch of cowards.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mercurymom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 2:17pm
Originally posted by Smaug Smaug wrote:

We should be at level 5. What a bunch of cowards.
 
I agree with you!
There is nothing to fear except the persistent refusal to find out the truth, the persistent refusal to analyze the causes of happenings. ~ Dorothy Thompson
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 2:23pm
This next phase will get the funds flowing... for vaccine etc.... Please note...
 
Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
 
Not in the sense that we will see the number of deaths that they terrorized people wiith in movies.
 
 
  
 
We have had Pandemics before ...
 
 
 
In 1929-1930......There was a Pandemic of Porcine A/SW/31
 
In 1947..........    there was a Pandemic of  A/FM/1/47/H1N1
 
In 1957.............there was a Pandemic of  A/SING/1/57/H2N2
 
In 1968-1969..... there was a Pandemic of  A/HK/1/68 / H3N2
 
In 1976 ............there was a limited epidemic of   (porcine) SWh1n1
 
In 1977.............there was a Pandemic   A/USSR/90/77/ H1N1
 
The data demonstrate that the A/USSR/90/77 strain is a recombinant virus.
 
 
source
H1N1&cd=9&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
 
..............................
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote momasaurus7 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 2:24pm
Oh God, please don't say that, I'm not ready for this.  Unhappy
We must always fear the wicked. But there is another kind of evil that we must fear the most, and that is the indifference of good men.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 2:25pm
We have had Pandemics before ...
 
 
 
In 1929-1930......There was a Pandemic of Porcine A/SW/31
 
In 1947..........    there was a Pandemic of  A/FM/1/47/H1N1
 
In 1957.............there was a Pandemic of  A/SING/1/57/H2N2
 
In 1968-1969..... there was a Pandemic of  A/HK/1/68 / H3N2
 
In 1976 ............there was a limited epidemic of   (porcine) SWh1n1
 
In 1977.............there was a Pandemic   A/USSR/90/77/ H1N1
 
The data demonstrate that the A/USSR/90/77 strain is a recombinant virus.
 
 
source
H1N1&cd=9&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
 
..............................
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wolfmanjack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 2:27pm
Well 2 days ago i posted that i thought they would raise it within 1-5 days .. In this situation i hate being right.

Just a heads up for anyone in CA . 1 confirmed case reported in Sacramento with possible 12 more..

I also agree that it should be lvl 5
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Interim Recommendations for Facemask and Respirator Use in Certain Community Settings Where Swine Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Transmission Has Been Detected

April 27, 2009 011:00AM ET

This document provides interim guidance and will be updated as needed.

 
 
 
CDC testing shows U.S. strain & Mexico strain of swine flu virus are genetic match.
 
 
 
 
 
.............................
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 2:39pm
Yep - I should think we'll be at 5 within a few days at the most as more cases appear in the States and elsewhere. The number has already jumped from the original eight in NY, so it's on the move. I already miss the 3...
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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Mexico City faces threat of shutdown

By Adam Thomson in Mexico City

Published: April 27 2009 18:35 | Last updated: April 27 2009 18:35

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Mexico City authorities on Monday admitted they might have to “shut down” Mexico’s sprawling capital in an effort to combat an outbreak of swine flu that has so far claimed the lives of up to 149 people, according to official reports.

Marcelo Ebrard, the city’s mayor, said on Monday morning that the next step in trying to quarantine the virus, a hybrid of human and animal influenza strains that scientists have never seen, could be shutting down the public transport network.

 
article here-
 
 
..........................
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 3:13pm
 
 
 
 
Why are they not being specific about the composition of this New Strain?
.........................................................................................................................
 
It's interesting but is it true?
 
 
 
.......................................
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gady71 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 3:19pm
Originally posted by Mary08 Mary08 wrote:

Mexico City faces threat of shutdown

By Adam Thomson in Mexico City

Published: April 27 2009 18:35 | Last updated: April 27 2009 18:35

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Mexico City authorities on Monday admitted they might have to “shut down” Mexico’s sprawling capital in an effort to combat an outbreak of swine flu that has so far claimed the lives of up to 149 people, according to official reports.

Marcelo Ebrard, the city’s mayor, said on Monday morning that the next step in trying to quarantine the virus, a hybrid of human and animal influenza strains that scientists have never seen, could be shutting down the public transport network.

 
article here-
 
 
..........................
 
 
 
nice one again mary - thanks again for this
I do apologize for my poor english. Prepare for the Worst and Hope for the Best!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 3:36pm

The Lady in LA says...don't gp muts...go about your business.  She says influenza B is going around in some areas. Masks are not effective...no reason to wear masks unless you are a healthcare person doing a test...even in the home it isn't that helpful....false sense of security.   Cases in US are mainly in school age.  Co-infection can be a factor in deaths...

No community wide control measures.  If you are sick...stay home.
Don't hoard Tamiflu...no need...to keep it in your drawer.
Swine flu is not as virulent as Avian Flu
Schools will only close if there is actual transmissions...it's up to the individual schools (not in NY...state closed a school...different states have different laws)
In The US this flu is not any different than seasonal Flu.
 
Reporter-
"You are down playing the deadly nature of this flu....has it been blown out of proportion?"
 
 
Ans-
 
"It is of concern..."
 
 
Too bad we can't hear the questions... 
 
Ans-
We dom't know what is driving what...we don't know the background level of influenza in Mexico...
 
 
 
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Originally posted by momasaurus7 momasaurus7 wrote:

The raising of the alert level makes me think things are worse than they're saying.  Since according to the official numbers it's not bad enough to warrant a change. 


If we are at 4, then you can pretty much figure there is a great deal of data which has not been released.  Personally, on my lines I am getting too much to post- so I guess for the most part I am going to concentrate getting my writing out ASAP and accessible. 

Yes the 3 was reassuring and 4 - well they would never go to 4 unless it was very likely to go to Pandemic.  I just heard higher number from New York and other places. This stuff is spreading.

Understand if things get too intense- we are going to start having a serious bandwidth problem on the net. In addition, the communication and power grid load is going to be under a lot of stress. Events are happening in the world other than Swine Flu. These events, the invasion as the Taliban press towards the capital in Pakistan, and other matter concerning the economy are no less important.

Has anyone considered in the event of a net failure, where that would put things?

I am trying to update more survival material and get it up and people should download and print up stuff that is on the site and other locations. Do not rely on the net.

Medclinician
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 4:19pm
Sacramento...has cases
 
 
PCR -Test takes 6 hrs to run....these are preliminary Tests...final from CDC...soon our public health may have the reagents and we will be able to do the tests here...
 
 
San Diego
..................
 
 
relative of 4th case is ill ...6 teachers are ill...need lab confirmation....private elem. School...
 
It is throughout our community....we are getting the antiviral stockpile 750,000....we are getting  courses for 50,000 people
 
We are recommending face masks now....CDC has info....n95 MASK IF THEY ARE TAKING CARE OF A CONFIRMED PATIENT....
 
Sorry about caps....
 
wash hands before you eat and after you blow your nose.
 
Why the masks?
 
This is a new virus...we do not have immunity...protect ourselves is prudent...
 
(Can not hear  questions...)
 
 
We are asking people to stay home (if ill)...if you have trouble breathing, call your doctor.
 
New guidelines today are to Close schools... these are guidelines....we are acting agressively.
 
 
more nasal swabs are being considered now.
 
Closeures ...a local...joint decision.
 
 
We find out from nurses (about ill children) 
 
will have results in about 24 hrs from CDC
 
The 5 confirmed cases had no history of travel to Mexico.
 
 
No info on 20 yr old.
 
if there is one confirmed case it is recommended that the school close for 7 days.
 
Can't give location of where sick person resides.
 
The school is closed.  One confirmed ... 6 teachers are probable.
 
(the White House should have this Lady as spokesperson...)
 
San Diego Calif.
 
 
 
........................
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Smaug Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 5:34pm
Mexico city has been shut down since the big earthquake in the 80's .  I feel sorry for all the poor souls down there. They have Public health care.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Loribearme Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 6:32pm
The military that are stationed overseas must be wondering when the day will come when the importance changes from things overseas to things at home.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 7:28pm
Lori... I was just thinking about the military...There are so many carrier groups out there...I wonder if they will just stay out there until we have a vaccine or it dies out...no pun intended.  Any military wives to fill us in on how long the guys will be out there?
.
Hello Norfolk.... used to live down that way....north of it.
 
 
.........
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2009 at 9:07pm
Originally posted by Wolfmanjack Wolfmanjack wrote:

Well 2 days ago i posted that i thought they would raise it within 1-5 days .. In this situation i hate being right.

Just a heads up for anyone in CA . 1 confirmed case reported in Sacramento with possible 12 more..

I also agree that it should be lvl 5
 
I'm in CA. Now CA has 8 all together I think, am I right? I have both so cal and norcal backing so im stuck either way and I agree with ya'll its def. at level 5 IMHO. Because what happened to them saying everything is fine and then out of nowhere, make this emergency meeting, something seems suspicious to me. =\
Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote linfull Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2009 at 2:50am
My local news in Michigan this morning mentioned that the CDC would probably go to 5 today.  Dr. Oz said not to panic, but to be prepared for more school closures and who will watch your kids if you go to work.  Fortunately I work from home and hubby (being that we are MI) has been laid off since January.  Two case in MI so far (closest one hour south of my home).  We won't be going anywhereYing%20Yang
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote July Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2009 at 4:18am

W.H.O. Issues Higher Alert on Swine Flu, With Advice

Published: April 27, 2009

While confirmed cases of swine flu increased only slightly on Monday, the World Health Organization voted to raise its global pandemic flu alert level, but at the same time it recommended that borders not be closed nor travel bans imposed.

Philippe Desmazes/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Spanish police officers at Madrid’s airport wore masks on Monday while checking passengers arriving from Mexico. Spain has had one confirmed swine flu case. More Photos »

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The W.H.O.’s emergency committee, after meeting until 10:30 p.m. in Geneva, also recommended abandoning efforts to contain the flu’s spread.

“Because the virus is already quite widespread in different locations, containment is not a feasible option,” said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the organization’s deputy director general.

The W.H.O. also recommended that vaccine makers keep making the seasonal flu vaccine instead of switching over to a new one that matches the swine flu strain, but it urged them to start the process of picking a pandemic strain, weakening it and making large batches of it, which could take six months.

Dr. Fukuda emphasized that the committee thought that “a pandemic is not inevitable — the situation is fluid and will continue to evolve.”

In Mexico, where the only related deaths have been reported, state health authorities looking for the initial source of the outbreak toured a million-pig hog farm in Perote, in Veracruz State. The plant is half-owned by Smithfield Foods, an American company and the world’s largest pork producer.

Mexico’s first known swine flu case, which was later confirmed, was from Perote, according to Health Minister José Ángel Córdova. The case involved a 5-year-old boy who recovered.

But a spokesman for the plant said the boy was not related to a plant worker, that none of its workers were sick and that its hogs were vaccinated against flu.

American officials said their response to the epidemic was already aggressive, and the W.H.O.’s decision to raise its pandemic alert to level 4 from level 3 would not change their plans. Level 4 means that there has been sustained human-to-human transmission.

The W.H.O. decision offered some official guidance to a world that, at least for the day, seemed swept by confusion that unnerved international travelers and the financial markets. European and Asian markets fell, and stock in airlines and the travel industry fell while those in pharmaceutical companies rose.

Pharmacies in New York reported runs on Tamiflu, an antiflu drug — a reaction that public health officials badly want to avoid because the drug could eventually be needed for the truly ill.

For now supplies of Tamiflu and Relenza, another antiflu drug, remain adequate, the manufacturers said, but both were increasing production and expressed anxiety that shortages could develop if governments placed huge orders.

The travel issue was the most confusing. On Monday morning, the European Union appeared to issue and then rescind a ban on travel to the United States, drawing a rebuke from American officials, who themselves later suggested that Americans drop all nonessential travel to Mexico.

The number of deaths in Mexico for which flu is believed responsible climbed to 149. That includes 20 in which the swine flu virus has been confirmed as the cause.

The number of confirmed cases of the virus in the United States increased to 50, with 28 of them from one New York City school. None of the American cases have been serious, but Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said he “would not rest on that fact.”

“I expect that we will see additional cases, and I expect that the spectrum of disease will expand,” he said at a news conference.

Asked why the W.H.O. had waited so long to raise its alert level, Dr. Fukuda said it was done on technical grounds, that there was evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission of a new virus and movement of that virus to new areas. But he conceded that “the committee is very aware that changes have quite significant political and economic effects on countries.”

The W.H.O. has no power to enforce any policies on member states, but different countries may have their own pandemic flu plans that are triggered by changes in the alert level.

Spain and Scotland became the first places outside North America to confirm cases. Suspected cases appeared in Brazil, Australia, Israel and New Zealand, but confirmation is slow because most nations’ laboratories lack the test kit the C.D.C. is developing for the new virus.

The C.D.C. began sending out the new kits on Monday, meaning that soon some states and foreign countries will be able to make their own diagnoses — a development that could lead to a sharp increase in confirmed cases.

Confusion regarding Europe’s position on travel arose when the European Union’s health commissioner, Androulla Vassiliou, was questioned on a visit to Luxembourg and said Europeans “should avoid traveling to Mexico or the United States unless it’s very urgent.”

Early reports of those remarks led both Dr. Besser and Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York City to publicly disagree.

“We don’t think there is any reason not to travel and come to New York,” the mayor said. “But they have to do what they think is right.”

Ms. Vassiliou’s office later denied she had issued any travel advisory and said she was only offering her personal opinion. “She didn’t want to insinuate risk where we’re not sure,” a spokesman said, adding that formal advice would be offered later.

Mayor Bloomberg confirmed that there were now 28 cases in New York, all connected to St. Francis Preparatory School in Fresh Meadows, Queens. He said there had been no suspected cases in any of the city’s intensive-care units. He acknowledged an increase in emergency-room visits, but he said his preliminary information indicated that there were more people who were worried rather than seriously ill.

New York’s public health situation does not now resemble Mexico City’s, the mayor said, and the public does not need to don masks.

In Europe, a spokesman for the Stockholm-based European Center for Disease Prevention and Control said there were about 40 suspected cases beyond the confirmed case in Spain.

The United States pork industry continued to try to allay consumer concerns about their products. Many companies and hog farmers complained that the “swine flu” name was unfortunate and perhaps inaccurate because, so far, the virus appeared to be spreading without any contact with pigs.

“I guess everything has got to have a name,” said Kyle Stephens, who raises show pigs in Amarillo, Tex. “The biggest thing we are up against is people thinking the worst, instead of checking into it more.”

Reporting was contributed by Marc Lacey from Perote, Mexico; Elisabeth Malkin from Mexico City; Ian Austen from Ottawa; Keith Bradsher from Hong Kong; Victoria Burnett from Madrid; Reed Abelson, Sewell Chan, Denise Grady, Anemona Hartocollis, Michelle Higgins, Andrew Martin, Patrick McGeehan and Elisabeth Rosenthal from New York; Andrew Pollack and Rebecca Cathcart from Los Angeles; James C. McKinley Jr. from Laredo, Tex.; and Miguel Helft and Malia Wollan from San Francisco.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2009 at 7:02am
Today the senior crowd is headed out to Sams to get a few supplies....they most likely watch Fox News...my Pop even heard about the possible level 5 alert.   We are going to get some frozen food and water....batteries.  I'm a battery nut, I can't live without music playing in the background.
 
The info was up yesterday on Smithfield Foods (subsidiary?) pig farm... if anyone finds it please put it over here..or it may be on a different page ...
 
 
here is a blurb on it... (from above post)
 
In Mexico, where the only related deaths have been reported, state health authorities looking for the initial source of the outbreak toured a million-pig hog farm in Perote, in Veracruz State. The plant is half-owned by Smithfield Foods, an American company and the world's largest pork producer.
 
and on the issue of moving faster on alert level.... (WHO can not force any country to act faster.... Mexico felt itself in a difficult spot... (I'm not sensing a lot of sympathy on that)
 
 
...But he (Dr. Fukuda) conceded that " the committee (WHO)  is very aware that changes have quite significant political and economic effects on countries."...
 
 
I imagine that the US needed to pledge some bucks and get behind this big time ...colaboration was in the works...as Mexico may have had a pretty good idea where it all started down there....pig farrm...otherwise the news of it wouldn't have shot through the BlogSphere so fast.
 
It was on the news last night.
 
...........
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2009 at 8:15am
keep pets safe...
 

This may account for the appearance of H5N1 in an alarmingly diverse range of species. The 2004 family tree indicates that the H5N1 strain dominant in southeast Asia originated in domestic ducks. It has, however, now become endemic in poultry across Asia, found its way into countless species of wild bird, and even turned up in mammals such as pigs, cats, leopards, tigers, and, of course, humans. The concern is that one of the many genetic incarnations of this virus will hit upon what it takes to be transferred from person to person.

 
 
............
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tesla Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2009 at 9:26am
Why doesn't the PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL at the top-right of the page flash "4" the current WHO level. It's set to "3"..

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2009 at 9:28am
hi... I see 4 there...
 
 
MED....
 
 
 
next call...  
 call presentations have not been formally disseminated by CDC and should not be constructed to represent any agency determination or policy.
 
 
 
.. Today at 2pm...CDC is having a call for medical personnel pass it on to Doc's etc. http://emergency.cdc.gov/coca/callinfo.asp?s_cid=tw_epr_77
 
they will discuss...the Stafford Act...which allows the Pres to provide emergency declaration to the states...in the event
that they may be overwhelmed...this also triggers FEMA...to provide finamcial and emergency services.  The Governor
of each state will need to put in writing a request to the Fed. that the situation is beyond the state's capabilities.
or the Pres. can himself issue an emergency declaration.... ie. Primary Federal Responsibility.
Readiness, surge capacity,Medical Reserve Corp., supply of volunteers, Fed & State cooperation, Deployment of
personnel, Reg and Reserve - Civilian Commisioned Corps, NDMS, MCR, ESAR-VHP, PHE, National Stockpile, EUA,
PREP Act, Quarantine, etc.

HHS Secretary "shall lead all Federal Public Health and medical response to Public Health emergencies and incidents
covered by the National Response (Framework)" PHS Act  2811
 
 
.............
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SusanT Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2009 at 9:37am
Why is the pandemic alert level on AFT still saying 3? An I missing something?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2009 at 9:40am
I repeat :)  I see 4 flashing...
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