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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

CDC/Govt. Thoughts/Laws Updates, Swine Flu/ S-OIV

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    Posted: May 09 2009 at 5:37pm
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LSU Law Center's

Medical and Public Health Law Site

CDC Public Health Law Conference - 2006
Seizure of Private Property: Powers and Protections
Resources

 

Participants

Ernest Abbott

Peter Baldridge

Dr. Howard Koh

Moderator: Edward Richards

Organization

The moderator will assume the role of an aide to the governor charged with managing the state's response to the pandemic.  Dr. Koh will act as the governor's resource person for medical issues, and Mr. Baldridge and Mr. Abbott will be asked about the state's and the community's legal responses to the governor's proposals. 

Initial scenario:

About three weeks ago there was an outbreak of a severe flu like illness in the Soviet Union.  While it has not been fully characterized, it appears to be related to bird flu, but with a significantly lower mortality if affected persons get respiratory support and careful treatment of evolving symptoms.  This includes ventilators in some case, antibiotics for secondary infections in most cases, and intense nursing care for all severely affected persons.  There have been several isolated outbreaks in the U.S., related to travelers from the Soviet Union.  Since this outbreak coincides with the beginning of the yearly winter flu pandemic, there was spread in the communities before the cases were identified and isolated.  While the number of cases is limited so far, in our state they are concentrated in a smaller city without extensive hospital resources.  The community hospital is swamped and there are efforts to bring beds online in an ambulatory care center and in a day surgery center.  There are adequate medical volunteers to staff these facilities, but there is no spare equipment, especially ventilators.  The community has asked the governor and the federal government to provide ventilators.  The federal government has declined, having already deployed the small stock of ventilators in the Strategic National Stockpile.  The governor was surprised to find that the community hospital did not have a stockpile of ventilators, since all of the state health plans stress the importance of providing surge capacity in all communities, and the local hospital had assured the state that it was prepared.  The governor was horrified to find that the state itself did not have a stockpile of essential medical equipment.

First issue: (Dr. Koh)  The governor would like to know: 1) Why don't hospitals keep spare beds and equipment for emergencies like this?  2) Why didn't the state health department buy extra equipment for all the hospital with that bioterrorism money they got?

Newspapers report that a group of academic medical centers has been stockpiling ventilators for the past two years so that they can respond to flu or other respiratory illness outbreaks.  New ventilators are unavailable from medical suppliers, but they are available on the international gray market for 3x their regular cost.  The governor wants to seize any unused ventilators and given them to the community with the outbreak.

Second issue: (Mr. Baldridge) Assume that the governor has the power to make the seizure in this situation:  1) What are the economic implications for the state of seizing equipment?  2) Can the state "give" them to the private community hospital?  3) What happens to the equipment when the outbreak is over?  Can the state just give it back to avoid financial liability?

The academic medical center consortium resists the seizure and a federal judge orders an expedited hearing.  The hospitals argue that they serve a major city and, relative to the population base, have no more resources than the smaller communities.  Moreover, they provide critical services to an indigent population that has no alternative source of care.  While the outbreak has not  yet spread to the city, the hospitals argue that it is only a matter of time, and without the ventilators, they will be helpless to provide care.  They argue that the state is putting the urban poor and minority populations at risk.

Third issue (Mr. Abbott) 1) How will this argument affect the governor?  2) What are the political problems it poses, and why should these matter?  3) Does it raise legal issues?

The agent has been named Russian flu and the outbreak is spreading to other communities in the state, and the number of cases requiring medical care is rapidly increasing.  While there is pressure for all hospitals to accept their fair share of Russian flu patients, the hospital association argues that it is difficult to maintain proper isolation once a significant number of Russian flu patients are admitted, compromising the care of other patients.

Fourth issue (Dr. Koh) 1) The governor wants to know why the hospitals don't just send the other patients home.  2) Can flu planners just ignore other medical conditions requiring hospitalization for the duration of the outbreak?

While the hospitals all believe that there should be dedicated Russian flu hospitals, none of them wants to be a Russian Flu hospital because they are worried that they government will not pay them, and that patients will be frightened to return after the outbreak.  The governor wants to seize private hospitals to designate as Russian flu hospitals.  The hospital employees union and the state medical society warn the governor that their members are concerned that the hospitals would not be properly run by the state.  Many of their members say they will refuse to work in seized hospitals.  The governor is furious.  The state passed the Model State Emergency Health Powers Act and it is says he can force people to work in emergencies.  His administration assumed they did not have to worry about manpower because they could just order people to staff facilities if there was an outbreak. 

Fifth issue (Mr. Abbott) 1) What are the legal and political issues in trying to force medical care professionals to do their jobs if they do not show up for work? 2) Can the governor put them in jail or revoke their licenses?  3) What are the political implications of such a move?

Other governors are alarmed at the plight of our governor, who is now in the position that whatever he does will anger major constituencies, undermining his political support and calling into question both his ability to manage the crisis and his future in politics.

Sixth issue (Mr. Baldridge) Are there other ways the state could use to work with private and community hospitals and health care providers to provide services in event of an outbreak?  Are seizure and mandatory work orders effective approaches in the modern health care world?  Should planners rely on their to provide critical services?

Moderator's Lessons and References from the Conference Materials

Seizure of Private Property

There are clear constitutional guidelines for seizing private property.  If the property is seized and destroyed to protect the public health and safety, then the constitution does not require the government to pay compensation for the property. The owner of the property is entitled to a hearing to determine if the seizure was lawful, but this hearing may be provided after the property has been seized and destroyed.  If the seizure was unlawful, the government must pay compensation.

Example References:

North American Cold Storage Co. v. City of Chicago, 211 U.S. 306 (1908) ; Juragua Iron Company v. United States., 29 S. Ct. 385, 212 U.S. 297 (1909); and Surocco v. Geary, 3 Cal. 69, 1853 WL 639, 58 Am.Dec. 385 (Cal. Jan Term 1853).

Seizing Persons/Forced Work

Traditional seizure cases were simple, such as seizing a boarding house to use as a pest house.  Modern health care is much more complex.  While the government might seize a hospital, it could not operate it without its staff.  This raises the question of whether the government, and especially the states, can force people to work at their jobs.  Since surveys show that significant numbers of health care workers will not show up for work during an emergency such as a flu pandemic, it can be expected that absenteeism will be even higher if there is a government seizure.  If the workers do not trust the government to run the facility safely, which is likely in the light of government actions taking in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, few workers may be willing to stay in their jobs.  There is very little precedent for forced work, outside the military and jury duty, and a real question about its constitutional limits.  This leads many public health law experts to advise negotiated agreements with facilities, based on regulatory powers, rather than seizures under the police power.

Example References:

Selective Draft Law Cases, 245 U.S. 366 (1918); Hamdi v. Rumsfeld, 124 S.Ct. 2633 (2004); and Korematsu v. United States, 323 U.S. 214,  (1944).

 

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Copyright as to non-public domain materials
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LSU Law Center's

Medical and Public Health Law Site

Vaccine Law

Swine Flu (H1N1) Law and Policy
Historic Materials - 1976 Swine Flu Immunization Program

Click here for the Swine Flu (H1N1) Spring 2009 Outbreak

See also: SARS; Pandemic and Yearly Influenza Control

Analysis

26 April 2009 - The starting point for understanding the decision making problems in a potenital pandemic is the report on the 1976 swine flu scare - The Swine Flu Affair. A key difference between the 2009 outbreak and 1976 is that in 2009 there are documented cases. In 1976 there was fear of an outbreak but no documented outbreak.

Resources

A Look At Responses to Pandemic Influenza: The Swine Flu Experience of 1976, Korey D. Harvey, May 2, 2008

The Swine Flu Affair: Decision-Making on a Slippery Disease, Richard E. Neustadt and Harvey V Fineberg, DHEW, 1978

Swine Flu Vaccine Injury Compensation - Unthank v. United States, 732 F.2d 1517 (10th Cir. 1984)

 

The Medical and Public Health Law Site
The Best on the WWW Since 1995!
Copyright as to non-public domain materials
See
DR-KATE.COM for hurricane and disaster preparation

See WWW.EPR-ART.COM for photography of Southern Louisiana and Hurricane Katrina
Edward P. Richards, III, JD, MPH
Webmaster

 

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LSU Law Center's

Medical and Public Health Law Site

Vaccine Law

Swine Flu (H1N1) Law and Policy
Spring 2009 Outbreak

See also: SARS; Swine Flu Historical Materials (1976 Immunization Program); Pandemic Flu Resources

CDC H1N1 Update Page

Emergency Preparedness Materials for courts

Analysis

3 May 2009

In 1976 there was a swine flu scare that resulted in a national swine flu immuization program. Understanding this program is useful background for understanding the contemporary reponse to the H1N1 outbreak. Materials on the 1976 events is archived here. In retropect, the CDC was seen to have overreacted since there were no cases of swine flu, but alledgely there were injuries from the vaccine. The starting point for understanding the decision making problems in a potenital pandemic is the report on the 1976 swine flu scare - The Swine Flu Affair. The goverment instituted its first vaccine compensation program for the swine flu vaccine.

The key difference between the 2009 outbreak and 1976 is that in 2009 there are documented cases of swine flu. In the 2009 outbreak there are many documented cases around the world. This is a real outbreak whose ultimate shape is unknown. At this point it appears to be mild.

Resources

Letter of Authorization: Emergency Use of Disposable N95 Respirators from Strategic National Stockpile (orginal link)

Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the emergency use of zanamivir inhalation powder

Update: Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus — United States and Other Countries, May 1, 2009

Outbreak of Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection — Mexico, March–April 2009

Update: Infections With a Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus — United States and Other Countries, April 28, 2009

Update: Drug Susceptibility of Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Viruses, April 2009

Swine Influenza A (H1N1) Infection in Two Children — Southern California, March–April 2009

 

 

The Medical and Public Health Law Site
The Best on the WWW Since 1995!
Copyright as to non-public domain materials
See
DR-KATE.COM for hurricane and disaster preparation

See WWW.EPR-ART.COM for photography of Southern Louisiana and Hurricane Katrina
Edward P. Richards, III, JD, MPH
Webmaster

 
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MMWR Dispatch
Vol. 58 / April 30, 2009
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
www.cdc.gov/mmwr
 
Outbreak of Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection — Mexico, March–April 2009
In March and early April 2009, Mexico experienced outbreaks
of respiratory illness and increased reports of patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) in several areas of the country. On April 12, the General Directorate of Epidemiology (DGE) reported an outbreak of ILI in a small community in the state of Veracruz to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) in accordance with International Health Regulations. On April 17, a case of atypical pneumonia in Oaxaca State prompted enhanced surveillance throughout Mexico. On April 23, several cases of severe respiratory illness laboratory confirmed as swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection were communicated to the PAHO. Sequence analysis revealed that the patients were infected with the same S-OIV strain detected in two children residing in California (1). This report describes the initial and ongoing investigation of the S-OIV outbreak in Mexico.
Enhanced Surveillance
On April 17, in response to the increase in reports of respiratory illness, DGE issued a national epidemiologic alert to all influenza-monitoring units and hospitals (Table 1). The alert asked hospitals to report all patients with severe respiratory illness and recommended collection of diagnostic respiratory specimens from these patients within 72 hours of illness onset. On April 18, DGE staff visited 21 hospitals throughout the country to confirm the apparent increase in illness incidence.
After laboratory confirmation of S-OIV infection on April 23, DGE developed case definitions. A suspected case was defined as severe respiratory illness with fever, cough, and difficulty
breathing. A probable case was defined as a suspected case in a patient from whom a specimen had been collected and tested positive for influenza A. A confirmed case was defined as a probable case that tested positive for S-OIV by real-time reverse–transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Health-care officials were contacted and asked to provide retrospective and ongoing data for persons having illness consistent with these case definitions and seeking care on or after March 1.
During March 1–April 30, a total of 1,918 suspected* cases were reported, including 286 probable and 97 confirmed cases (Figure). A total of 84 deaths were reported. A majority of case-reports were for hospitalized patients, reflecting the concentration
of surveillance efforts within hospitals. However, DGE also received reports from sites conducting routine seasonal influenza surveillance of patients with ILI. Of 1,069 patients with suspected and probable cases for whom information was available, 755 were hospitalized, and the remaining 314 were examined in outpatient settings or emergency departments. Suspected or probable cases were reported from all 31 states and from the Federal District of Mexico. The four areas with the most cases were Federal District (213 cases), Guanajuato (141), Aguascalientes (93), and Durango (77). In other states, the number of suspected or probable cases ranged from two to 46. Suspected and probable cases were identified in all age groups. Mexico routinely monitors seasonal influenza in a network
of outpatient facilities throughout the country. Fifty-one influenza A positive specimens from six states were collected during January 4–March 11 in this surveillance network. All of these specimens tested negative for S-OIV at CDC.
Confirmed Cases of S-OIV Infection
As of April 30, DGE surveillance activities, focusing on patients with severe respiratory disease, had identified 97 patients with laboratory-confirmed S-OIV infection, including
seven persons who had died. The first of the 97 patients reported onset of illness (any symptom) on March 17, and the most recent patients reported onset on April 26. Laboratory confirmation of S-OIV infection for the most recent 73 of these 97 cases was reported on the evening of April 29. Collection
* The number of suspected cases includes the 286 probable and 97 laboratory-confirmed cases. After the alert on April 17, reports of patients with ILI from the seasonal influenza surveillance network also were classified as suspected cases.
department of health and human services
C
enters for Disease Control and Prevention
2 MMWR Dispatch April 30, 2009
TABLE 1. Timeline of key events in detection and response to outbreak of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection — Mexico, April 12–30, 2009
Date
Event
April 12
Respiratory illness outbreak reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).
April 17
A case of atypical pneumonia leads to an alert to enhance surveillance.
April 17–22
Field investigation of respiratory illness undertaken.
April 23
Public Health Agency Canada confirms cases of S-OIV infection.
April 23
Cluster of S-OIV illness reported to PAHO.
April 24
Health authorities implement public health measures for all airport passengers and vaccination of health-care workers with
seasonal influenza vaccine.
April 25
National decree allows for house isolation of persons with suspected cases.
April 26
National laboratory capacity to diagnose S-OIV infection established in Mexico.
April 27
School closure is mandated throughout the country.
April 30
Status: 97 laboratory-confirmed cases of S-OIV infection in Mexico.
FIGURE. Number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable (N = 260)* cases of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection, by date of illness onset — Mexico, March 15–April 26, 2009
The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.The figure shows the number of confirmed (N = 97) and probable 260)* cases swine-origin influenza A H1N1) virus S-OIV) infection, by date illness onset, in Mexico, during March 15 to April 26, 2009.
From through 17, daily combined did not exceed five cases. However, start a substantial increase is indicated on 18. This peaks at approximately 55 22 23, before declining fewer than 10 26.
* Probable cases for which dates of illness onset are known.
of additional information on these 73 cases is ongoing. Of the 24 patients for whom demographic and clinical information is available, 20 (83%) were hospitalized, three were examined in outpatient settings, and one had illness that was not medically attended. Patients ranged in age from <1 to 59 years, with 79% aged 5 to 59 years (Table 2); 15 (62%) patients were female. Patients with confirmed S-OIV infection were identified in four states: Federal District (15 cases), Mexico State (seven),
Veracruz (one), Oaxaca (one). Of the seven deaths, six occurred in Federal District, and one occurred in Oaxaca.
Among the 16 patients with complete clinical records, 15 reported fever, 13 reported cough, 10 reported tachypnea, and nine reported dyspnea. In addition, seven of 16 patients reported either vomiting or diarrhea. Of these seven patients, two reported vomiting only, two reported diarrhea only, and three reported both. Eight of 16 patients were admitted to intensive-care units; of these, seven required mechanical ventiVol.
58 MMWR Dispatch 3
TABLE 2. Number of patients and deaths from laboratory-confirmed infection with swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV), by age group — Mexico, April 1–27, 2009*
Age group (yrs)
No.
Deaths
<5
5
0
5–19
4
2
20–39
9
3
40–59
6
2
>60
0
0
Total
24
7
* Does not include 73 laboratory-confirmed cases of S-OIV infection (reported on April 29) for which no demographic data are available.
lation, and six subsequently died after developing acute respiratory
distress syndrome. Twelve of 15 patients with radiography records available had confirmed pneumonia. Three of the 16 patients had underlying health conditions. Information on the duration of hospitalization before death was available for six patients and ranged from 1 to 18 days (median: 9 days).
Prevention and Control Measures
On April 24, the Council for General Hygiene convened with the President of the Mexican Republic and decreed the closure of all schools in the Federal District and metropolitan area of Mexico City. Incoming and outgoing airport passengers
were informed of the outbreak and advised to seek care immediately should they experience symptoms of ILI. Other measures included 1) disseminating educational messages regarding respiratory hygiene through mass media; 2) distributing
masks and alcohol hand-sanitizer to the public; and 3) discouraging large public gatherings, including church services, theater events, and soccer games. On April 25, a national decree allowed for house-isolation of any person with a suspected case, and on April 27, school closures were mandated throughout the country.
Reported by: General Directorate of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Mexico; Pan American Health Organization; World Health Organization; Public Health Agency of Canada; CDC (United States).
Editorial Note: Understanding the epidemiology and clinical
profiles of recent cases of S-OIV infection in Mexico can help inform regional, national, and global control measures in response to the emergence of S-OIV infection. Important areas for investigation worldwide include evidence of person-to-person transmission, the geographic distribution of disease, the clinical spectrum of disease, and the effectiveness of mitigation
strategies.
Previous instances of human-to-human transmission of other swine viruses have been reported to result in small clusters of disease and limited generations of disease transmission (2,3). Several findings indicate that transmission in Mexico involves
person-to-person spread with multiple generations of transmission.
Patients with probable and laboratory-confirmed disease have presented over a period of 4 weeks. Limited contact tracing of patients with laboratory-confirmed disease also has identified secondary cases of ILI.
The clinical spectrum of S-OIV illness is not yet well characterized
in Mexico. However, evidence suggests that S-OIV transmission is widespread and that less severe (uncomplicated) illness is common. Patients with confirmed disease have been identified in several states, and suspected cases have been identified
in all states, which suggests that S-OIV transmission is widespread. In addition, several countries are reporting S-OIV infection among persons who have travel histories involving different parts of Mexico in the 7 days before illness onset. To date, case-finding in Mexico has focused on patients seeking care in hospitals, and the selection of cases for laboratory testing has focused on patients with more severe disease. Therefore, a large number of undetected cases of illness might exist in persons seeking care in primary-care settings or not seeking care at all. Additional investigations are needed urgently to evaluate the full clinical spectrum of disease in Mexico, the proportion of patients who have severe illness, and the extent of disease transmission.
To expedite confirmation of disease in additional patients, the World Health Organization (WHO) Influenza Collaborating Center in Atlanta, Georgia, has placed the genetic sequence of S-OIV from California in GenBank.† Specific primers for S-OIV have been developed and will be distributed through the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network to reference
laboratories throughout the world. As of April 26, the National Laboratory for Public Health in Mexico has capacity to perform PCR for S-OIV.
The epidemiologic characteristics of this outbreak underscore the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of community mitigation efforts, nonpharmaceutical interventions, and clinical management practices in anticipation of a possible pandemic.
† Available at
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genomes/FLU/SwineFlu.html.
References
1. CDC. Swine influenza A (H1N1) infection in two children—Southern California, March–April 2009. MMWR 2009;58:400–2.
2. Wells DL, Hopfensperger DJ, Arden NH, et al. Swine influenza virus infections. Transmission from ill pigs to humans at a Wisconsin agricultural
fair and subsequent probable person-to-person transmission. JAMA 1991;265:478–81.
3. Myers KP, Olsen CW, Gray GC. Cases of swine influenza in humans: a review of the literature. Clin Infect Dis 2007;44:1084–8
 
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source

.............

 
 
 

Update on S-OIV or A (H1N1) Influenza (formerly Swine Influenza) - May 1, 2009

Friday, May 01, 2009
Paul Auerbach, M.D.
Until further notice, I am going to devote my blog to updates on the A (H1N1) influenza situation. I will post again about outdoor medicine once the flu situation settles.

The following post is derived from information provided by the Santa Clara County (California) Health Department:

We are now referring to "swine influenza" or "swine flu" as influenza A (H1N1) or S-OIV (swine-origin influenza virus).

As of May 1, 2009, the United States has confirmed 141 cases of S-OIV. In contrast to the cases reported from Mexico that have been more severe, the majority of U.S. cases have thus far been characterized as mild. Because of evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, the World Health Organization raised the pandemic alert level to Phase 5. The outbreak strain of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) is susceptible to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza), but resistant to amandatine and rimantadine.

Because of the high number of patients who are concerned about whether or not they are suffering from S-OIV and the mild profile of the vast majority of U.S. cases, it is becoming necessary in certain locations to prioritize testing for patients in high risk settings for whom a positive result would necessitate a public health action or decision (such as school closure) or for patients who are seriously ill, in order to help doctors, public health officials, and epidemiologists understand disease patterns and severity.

It is currently being recommended to test patients for S-OIV if they are:

• Hospitalized persons with influenza-like illness (fever greater than 37.8°C [100°F] AND at least two of the following: runny nose or nasal congestion, sore throat, or cough; OR if they suffer from pneumonia. Some instructions use a slightly higher temperature (38°C [100.4°F]) as an indicator.
• Non-hospitalized persons with influenza-like illness if they are in a congregate setting: such as school, daycare, or university; jail; homeless shelter; or long-term-care facility.

The usual test is a nasal swab to test for influenza virus. This is not a test specifically for S-OIV, but only for influenza A or B. False negative tests for influenza A are possible. If the test if positive for influenza A, the sample must be further tested ("typed") to determine the presence or absence of S-OIV. A rapid influenza test that is positive for influenza B is of some reassurance, because concurrent S-OIV (a form of influenza A) infection is unlikely.

When a person is suspected or known to have S-OIV infection, and the case is mild (e.g., does not require hospitalization), then the patient is instructed to self-isolate at home, and asked not to attend work or school for 10 days after the start of illness, or until all symptoms have resolved (whichever is longer).

Guidance for care at home of persons with A (H1N1) influenza can be found at
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/guidance_homecare.htm

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) considers the definition of a confirmed case of S-OIV infection to be a person with an influenza-like illness with laboratory confirmed S-OIV infection at the CDC by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or viral culture. A probable case of S-OIV infection is defined as a person with an influenza-like illness who is positive for influenza A, but negative for H1 and H3 by influenza RT-PCR. A suspected case of S-OIV infection is defined as a person with influenza-like illness:

• with onset within 7 days of close contact with a person who is a confirmed case of S-OIV infection, or
• with onset within 7 days of travel to a community either within the United States or internationally where there are one or more confirmed cases of S-OIV, or
• who resides in a community where there are one or more confirmed S-OIV cases.

The estimated incubation period for S-OIV infection is unknown and could range from 1 to 7 days, and more likely from 1 to 4 days. Persons with S-OIV infection are assumed to be shedding virus (and to be contagious) from the day prior to illness onset until resolution of symptoms. Persons with S-OIV infection should be considered potentially contagious for up to 10 days following illness onset. Persons who continue to be ill longer than 10 days after illness onset should be considered potentially contagious until symptoms have resolved. Children, especially younger children, might be contagious for longer periods.

When indicated, antiviral treatment should be initiated as soon as possible after the onset of symptoms. Evidence for benefits from treatment in studies of seasonal influenza is strongest when treatment is started within 48 hours of illness onset. However, some benefit, including reduction in mortality or duration of hospitalization, may be seen even for patients whose treatment is started more than 48 hours after illness onset. Recommended duration of treatment is five days.

It is important to remember that seasonal human influenza A strains (both H1 and H3 subtypes) and influenza B continue to circulate in some communities. Seasonal influenza A/H3 and influenza B are sensitive to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza). However, seasonal influenza A/H1 is resistant to oseltamivir (Tamiflu). S-OIV is sensitive to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) or zanamivir (Relenza). Recommendations for use of antivirals may change as data on antiviral susceptibilities and effectiveness become available.

Antiviral chemoprophylaxis (pre-exposure or post-exposure) with either oseltamivir or zanamivir is recommended for the following individuals [with reference to A (H1N1) influenza]:

1. Household close contacts of a confirmed or probable case, who are at high-risk for
complications of influenza.
2. Health care workers or public health workers who did not use appropriate personal protective equipment during close contact with an ill confirmed, probable or suspect case of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus infection during the case’s infectious period.

Persons at high risk for complication of influenza include the following:

• persons aged > 50 years of age;
• children < 5 years of age;
• pregnant women;
• persons with chronic diseases such as diabetes mellitus, asthma, heart disease (excluding hypertension), kidney diseases, severe anemia, cancer, and weakened immune systems due to immunosuppressive medications (corticosteroids, anti-TNF alpha medicines, etc.) or HIV infection;
• children aged six months to 18 years who are on long-term aspirin therapy;
• persons with any condition (e.g., cognitive dysfunction, spinal cord injuries, seizure disorders, or other neuromuscular disorders) that can compromise respiratory function or the handling of respiratory secretions or that can increase the risk for aspiration;
• residents of nursing homes and other chronic care facilities

Antiviral chemoprophylaxis with either oseltamivir or zanamivir can be considered for the following:

1. Household close contacts of a suspected case, who are at high-risk for complications of influenza.
2. Children attending school or daycare who are at high-risk for complications of influenza and who had close contact (face-to-face) with a confirmed, probable, or suspected case.
3. Health care workers who are at high-risk for complications of influenza who are working in an area of the healthcare facility that contains patients with confirmed swine-origin influenza A(H1N1) cases.
4. Travelers to Mexico who are at high-risk for complications of influenza.

For Healthcare Providers:

You may consult CDC guidelines for current recommendations for dosing and duration of chemoprophylaxis. These recommendations can be found at http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/recommendations.htm

Pregnant women should consult their primary provider regarding use of influenza antiviral medications. The CDC has recently issued guidelines for the use of influenza antivirals in pregnancy, which can be found at http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/clinician_pregnant.htm. The FDA has recently approved oseltamivir (Tamiflu) for treatment and prophylaxis of young children, including infants. Further information on the use of influenza antivirals in young children, including dosing guidelines, can be found at http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/childrentreatment.htm.
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May 08, 2009

S-OIV in Mexico and the US: Near-Real Time Reporting Compared to the Forensic Epidemic Curve

The key for potential escalation of a response posture into 'public health emergency mode' is where we move beyond identification of a case here, case there of a new viral strain with unknown transmission potential to identification of evidence pointing to rapid, highly efficient transmission... possibly involving said virus.  Near-real time situational awareness provides that evidence, but it is the forensic investigation that validates the initial signal (and why the two must be partnered together).

On May 6th, CDC released the forensically constructed S-OIV (formerly known as "swine flu") epidemic curves for Mexico and the United States.  As we have seen multiple times before, near-real time reporting output often follows epidemic curves very closely (see SARS, the 1968 pandemic, the 1918 pandemic, and the 1889 pandemic)... with the important caveats that official reporting can drive situational awareness reports and the epidemic curve only reflects what data we were able to collect in hindsight, among other caveats. 

So, consider the below more as a reflection of social sensitization to an emerging infectious disease crisis.  Note, there is, as in the case study for Poland, high complementarity between near-real time situational awareness and which is eventually recognized as the "true" epidemic curve.  This again is the strong argument for activating a global early warning system for infectious disease crises and disasters that incorporates the role of the operational biosurveillance analyst, married to classic investigative public health.

Lastly, it should impress the reader how connected Mexico and the United States are... diseases knows no borders.  And the speed with which novel strains of influenza move geographically likely exceeds any existing traditional public health surveillance system.  Near-real time monitoring of communities in an all hazards approach is required for early warning.

Untitled%20Image%2010

Figure 1.  Respiratory disease report volume produced in near-real time by Veratect for Mexico.  User alerts were issued on April 16th and 17th, followed by phone contact on April 20th.  The volume of analyst reporting is not equivalent to the volume of sources that reported the event.

Untitled%20Image%208

Figure 2.  Respiratory disease report volume produced by Veratect in near-real time for Mexico and the United States, respectively.  Again, the volume of analyst reporting is not equivalent to the volume of sources that reported the event.  Recognition of the crisis in Mexico rapidly prompted sensitization to look for S-OIV inside the United States.

Untitled%20Image%209

Figure 3.  Same view as Figure 2, except the reports of respiratory disease in Mexico were filtered based on whether the sites mentioned were within 50 km radius of a Mexican international airport connected to the United States by direct, non-stop air traffic.

Untitled%20Image%2011

Figure 4.  Total social disruption documented in near-real time for the Mexico S-OIV crisis.

Untitled%20Image%2012
Untitled%20Image%2014
Untitled%20Image%2013

Figure 5.  The "EKG" of the Mexico S-OIV crisis, viewed from the perspective of selected aspects of social disruption, respectively.  An analogy is the pattern of a 'heart attack' on an EKG strip.  Veratect documented more than 11,000 event features associated with the S-OIV crisis in Mexico alone up to 5 May in near-real time.

Untitled  
Figure 6.  The epidemic curve of S-OIV in Mexico, forensically investigated and reported by CDC on May 6, 2009. 


Untitled%202

Figure 7.  The epidemic curve of S-OIV in the United States, forensically investigated and reported by CDC on May 6, 2009. 

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Natural History of Virus

The CDC and CDPH are defining the attack rate and severity of the virus. Please refer to their sites; the

latest molecular studies are fascinating. In brief, the CDC is certain that the severity is not extreme and if

the current patterns are sustained, the severity is likely to be confirmed as mild. The recommendation is

to respond as the usual seasonal influenza.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2009 at 6:40pm
Mary08, are the things in your first post true about the Russians or is it just a possible senerio? Johnray1
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hi Johnray... good question, others may also wonder.  It is a scenario, perhaps the 'Russians' were used due to the Latest 'pandemic' ...Russian flu- released from cold storage...in the 1970's.
.
The moderator will assume the role of an aide to the governor charged with managing the state's response to the pandemic.  Dr. Koh will act as the governor's resource person for medical issues, and Mr. Baldridge and Mr. Abbott will be asked about the state's and the community's legal responses to the governor's proposals. 
 
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this concerns me greatly and I hope that they actually put people with neruomuscular and spinal cord injuries at the top of the list for medical assistance.
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this is very interesting...on the Swine Flu Mass Vaccination Story...
.....................................................
 

LSU Law Center's

Medical and Public Health Law Site

Swine Flu

A Look At Responses to Pandemic Influenza:
The Swine Flu Experience of 1976

Korey D. Harvey

May 2, 2008
Foreward

By
 
 

With almost no dissent, the scientists present at the March 10 meeting had decided on a course that would lead to disaster—rapid production of vaccines for H1N1, and universal vaccination, the logistics and practicality of which were even larger than imagined.  There was dissent; Dr. Russell Alexander, of the Public Health School of the University of Washington, urged vaccine production, but not immediate, mass vaccination.  Alexander instead urged stockpiling—“My general view is that you should be conservative about putting foreign material into the human body….especially when you are talking about 200 million bodies….If you don’t need to give it, don’t.”[23]  A man who practiced a science of prudence, Alexander was ignored.  Worried about what was called “jet spread,” the rapid spread of the influenza virus before mass vaccination is possible, prevented any real discussion of stockpiling the vaccine, despite opinions from in-the-field personnel who insisted mass vaccination is possible even after the outbreak of pandemic (assuming a good surveillance and identification system.)[24] 

As early as the first meeting of ACIP under Sencer, a pervasive bias permeated all levels of thought and action; it was a bias that was both internal and external to CDC, and its sister agencies—the National Institutes of Health, the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases, and the Bureau of Biologics in the FDA.  It was an odd kind of bias, one rooted in the unique politics of the academy.[25]  The varying fields of medicine and research do not co-exist in a state of harmony; they vie for attention and prestige, but often more importantly, for money.  Epidemiology and virology—the study of epidemics and viruses, respectively—are indissolubly linked, as is their practical application: preventive medicine.  As disciplines within the academy, epidemiology and virology, do not occupy the upper stratum in terms of prestige, power, or money.  Likewise, within the medical field, preventive medicine is not championed.  At least, such were the lamentations of many of the scientists involved in the government’s response:

Kilbourne, for one, not only championed his theories, but was keen to make the country see the virtues of preventive medicine.  Swine flu seemed a splendid opportunity.  Others also saw the chance to demonstrate the value of public health practice…Dr. Reuel Stallones, Dean of the Public Health School at the University of Texas, recalled for us: ‘The rewards have gone overwhelmingly to molecular biology which doesn’t do much for humanity.  Epidemiology ranks low in the hierarchy….Yet it holds the key to reducing lots of human suffering.’[26]

 

            With near unanimity within ACIP, Sencer began his effort to convince the upper echelon of policy makers to commit to mass production of a vaccine followed by mass vaccinations.  Sencer authored a nine page memorandum directed to David Matthews, then Secretary of the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare; but Sencer had to know this memorandum would reach the highest levels of the executive branch of the federal government.  It was, in fact, immediately sent to President Ford’s principal deputies in the White House, including the heads of the Office of Management and Budget and the Domestic Council, two of the agencies within the Executive Office of the President.  Sencer’s memorandum expressly stated that the H1N1 virus at Fort Dix was related to the virus that caused the 1918 pandemic, and most curiously, Sencer stated as an “assumption,” that there existed “a strong possibility that this country will experience widespread [swine] influenza in 1976-1977.”[27]  Sencer also asserted with certainty that influenza pandemics occur in regular intervals of 10 years.  He concluded his assumptions stating if the government acted, no demographic group could be left out—a “goal of immunizing 213 million people in three months.”[28]  There was absolutely no empirical basis whatsoever for Sencer’s statement about cycles of pandemics, nor was there any evidentiary basis for his statement that there was “a strong possibility” of a pandemic.  But, Sencer was the Director of CDC, and widely respected.  None of the men who would make the final decision on Sencer’s proposals had any knowledge with which to challenge his statements or assumptions; they were politicians, not scientists. 

            In his memorandum, Sencer crafted four possible avenues of governmental action.  A brilliant bureaucrat who knew his audience lacked any ability to second-guess his assumptions, Sencer likely deliberately worded his memorandum so that the first three options—no action, minimum action (producing vaccines but no mass inoculation plan), and government only action (without the use of private medical providers, which was inherently cost prohibitive in terms of money and administrative capability)—were to be intuitively rejected by the reader.  Then, Sencer presented his fourth option—the federal government paying for the vaccine, and administration of the vaccine through a combined effort of the federal government, state governments, and private health providers.  Sencer projected the cost of the program to be $134 million.[29] 

            There was a fourth dimension to the government’s response—not just politics, which is always present to some degree, but election year politics.  President Ford was seeking election (he succeeded President Nixon following his resignation, so for Ford, he was seeking to be retained, though not reelected, as President.)  Following the Watergate scandal, Nixon’s resignation, and Ford’s subsequent and very unpopular pardon of Nixon, and in the midst of widespread opposition to the nation’s intervention in Vietnam, public confidence in government had waned.  Ford faced a tough challenge not only from the eventual Democratic nominee, but also from within the Republican Party; the day after Ford would announce the government’s response to the Fort Dix outbreak, Ford would be stunned with a loss to California Governor Ronald Reagan in the South Carolina primary.  The confluence of election year politics, exacerbated by unparalleled scandal and a President mired in both internal and external political warfare, with the special politics of the CDC, proved a recipe for unmitigated failure.[30]

            Sencer’s memorandum made its way up through the chain of command within the Department of Health, Education and Welfare (HEW).  Sencer’s superiors bought his pitch.  Accordingly, HEW Secretary Matthews sent a communication to the Director of the Office of Management & Budget (OMB) stating that there was evidence of an oncoming pandemic that could kill as many as one million people in the United States.[31]   Matthews was acting on Sencer’s memorandum; hyperbole begat hyperbole.  The communication was turned over to the chief deputy at OMB, a young budget hawk named Paul O’Neill, who would later be President George W. Bush’s Treasury Secretary from 2001-2003.  O’Neill was immediately skeptical of the alarm raised, especially for the $134 million price tag.[32]  In the Nixon and Ford administrations, budget policies generally centered upon cutting, not enlarging budgets of existing agencies.  Furthermore, with respect to HEW and the CDC, the administration policy was one of preference for discretionary funds for state government and private intervention, not federal action.  In that context, a plea from Sencer, whose agency was on the budgetary chopping block, for $134 million in emergency funds for an unprecedented federal intervention, was met with skepticism.[33]

            O’Neill, though not a scientists had budget staffers with specialized training in public health.  They immediately voiced their concern with Sencer’s plans, and furthermore, with his assumptions and projections.  O’Neill’s chief health budget hawk, Victor Zafra, read The New York Times article of February 20, “and had been waiting since for CDC to come in crying doom.  He and his assistants deeply suspected a cooked-up job.”[34]  But Zafra’s relationship with the technicians within HEW and the CDC were too strained due to constant budget fights to obtain any more analysis to confirm their suspicions.  Despite reservations grounded in both evidentiary and fiscal considerations, White House policy makers who raised the possibility of stockpiling the vaccine were constantly met with Sencer’s response: “jet spread,” too late, catastrophe.  Even Vice President Nelson Rockefeller suggested stockpiling, asserting that HEW had no idea how to carry out such a massive operation.  He, too, was either ignored, which was not uncommon in the Ford administration, or was simply out-shouted by Sencer’s forecast.[35]

            Within days of the arrival of Sencer’s memo at the White House, Ford met with his top budget and domestic policy advisers on March 22, with HEW Secretary Matthews and his chief deputy in attendance.  Having reviewed Sencer’s memorandum, the President and his advisers arrived at the topic of election politics, which is neither unexpected nor inappropriate.  As one adviser present later recounted: “[T]his was a no-win position politically.  There was no good to come of it as the election was concerned…if there were no pandemic, a lot of people would have sore arms in October.  If there were a pandemic, no matter how much we’d done it wouldn’t be enough.”[36]  Furthermore, the President’s advisers arrived at a logical political conclusion; regardless of Sencer’s facts, which they were ill-equipped to challenge even if they wanted to, one conclusion loomed large on their horizon.  As one adviser said, “[t]here is no way to go back on Sencer’s memo.  If we tried to do that, it would leak.  That memo’s a gun to our head.”[37] 

            Before he decided, Ford called together a group of scientists, which he wanted to include persons outside of Sencer’s cabal within CDC and ACIP.  Of the attendees at this March 24 meeting, none expressed any dissent from Sencer’s assumptions or recommendations, despite absolutely no spread of the H1N1 virus since the early January outbreak at Fort Dix.  In retrospect, several of the scientists there lamented keeping their silence as to their lingering doubts they had.  Many stated they thought such a meeting was staged to give the appearance of Ford wanting outside input.  Ford and his deputies later insisted the meeting was not staged, and that real and diverse opinion was sought.  Nevertheless, the attendees had the feeling that Sencer’s course of action had already been agreed to, and that the meeting was merely pro forma.[38]  Departing from the meeting, Ford immediately went to the Press Room in the West Wing and made the announcement: mass production of vaccines paid for by the federal government followed by nation-wide administration to all Americans.  Ford said he was sending a request to Congress for $135 million to fund what would officially be designated as the National Influenza Immunization Program.[39]  There would be no turning back.

            It took no time for the press to cry politics.  Though it should have been expected both by the White House and by Sencer’s group, little thought seems to have been given to countering negative press.  On the day the program was announced, press scrutiny immediately began to destabilize confidence in the government’s response.  NBC and CBS both relied upon sources within the CDC itself that characterized the program as “a crazy program,” that was “rotten to the core” and “unwarranted” and “unnecessary.”  CBS news, through its venerable and trusted newsman Walter Cronkite and reporter Robert Pierpoint, reported to its national audience:

Some experts seriously question whether it is logistically possible to inoculate two hundred million Americans….But beyond that, doctors and public health officials have told CBS News that they believe such a massive program is premature and unwise, that there is not enough proof of the need for it.[40]

 

Bad press relations and the onslaught of open dissent were followed by the first field trials of the vaccines.  The results were not encouraging.  Single doses of the vaccine were practically ineffective on children.  A single, whole dose resulted in reactions ranging from soreness to high fever.  Split doses of the vaccine did not immunize.  Even if a split vaccine could be tweaked to work, the possibility of producing significantly more doses of vaccine was near impossible.    Arguments for stockpiling in the press became rampant as the program’s reputation steadily spiraled.[41] 

            As worries that field trials would delay the goal of implementing vaccination by July escalated within the program, a development for which CDC and HEW had recent experience and should have reasonably foreseen, shattered any hopes of adhering to the original timeline.  That development was the absolute refusal by the vaccine manufacturers to proceed unless they were indemnified, either by their insurance companies or by the government.  Liability insurance providers, being incapable of projecting possible adverse effects upon a population of 200 million, simply would not insure the vaccine manufacturers.  The manufacturers refused to self-insure themselves.  All vaccine production came to a halt.[42]  Though the government, now nearly six months removed from the outbreak at Fort Dix, and with no evidence pointing toward an oncoming pandemic, could have suspended the program—essentially, cutting its losses before a mediocre disaster became a credibility-debilitating disaster—it pressed forward.  Ford inquired of HEW Secretary Matthews whether the Sencer’s projections in March were still accurate.  He was told they were, despite an ascendancy of evidence and opinion to the contrary.  Therefore, at Ford’s urging, Congress quickly passed what was termed the Swine Flu Tort Claims bill, Public Law 94-380, which directed that all claims arising from the vaccination program be filed against the federal government.  Manufacturers were therefore given near blanket, absolute immunity.  Manufacturers would only be liable for negligence, but not unforeseen, adverse side effects.  As a result, insurance companies for the manufacturers profited around $8.5 million; they insured manufacturers, but the federal government was hit with the tort claims.[43]

            After the impasse over indemnity was resolved, production resumed.  Vaccinations, originally planned to begin no later than July, began on October 1.  Ten days later, three elderly patients with pre-existing cardiac complications died after receiving the vaccine.  Though it is probable that the vaccine was not the root cause of their deaths, once again, an inability to head off and influence press inquiries plagued the government’s response.  The county health examiner who conducted autopsies on the elderly patients speculated that the vaccine may have caused their deaths.  The press wires picked up the story.  Immediately, nine states suspended vaccinations.  As vaccinations continued in some states, the press kept toll of deaths possibly related to the vaccinations, reaching perhaps as high as 40.  The program was seriously wounded, but limping forward.  The CDC, as the agency identified by the press and the public responsible for the program, had utterly failed to foresee and prepare for the possibility that deaths could follow vaccination, but not be a result of it.  Rather than priming the press ahead of time with warnings, the CDC was stuck in a slow, impossible-to-win game of reaction.  Vaccinations in some states continued, and by December 16, some 40 million Americans had received the vaccine, despite a lackluster participation by private physicians, who conducted an estimated 15% of the vaccinations.[44]

            The death blow for the program came in November 1976.  A physician in Minnesotta reported to CDC that one of his patients had developed Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS), which is similar to polio that causes debilitating paralysis and even death.  Initially, the CDC ignored the report, though it had been long-established that vaccinations, especially flu vaccinations, have been speculated to cause GBS.  A week later, three additional cases, one causing death, arose.  When CDC, upon a cursory investigation, realized it could not discount the possibility that the vaccine may induce GBS, informed the White House.  On December 16, President Ford ordered the program suspended indefinitely.  Though nearly a year of planning had occurred, the actual life of the program lasted for just under three months.  It would never be revived.[45]    

            After the program had been terminated, it was viewed by its creators as a failure, a disaster.[46]  After Ford’s defeat in the November 1976 election, President Carter’s new HEW Secretary commissioned two Harvard professors, Richard E. Neustadt and Harvey Fineberg, to study and give a full recounting of what they termed “The Swine Flu Affair.”  Their study, a formal report issued under the auspices of HEW, has been quoted extensively herein.  The authors of the report came to several conclusions, chiefly, that the program was heavily affected by the biases and personal-academic agendas of its key participants.  Furthermore, they identified what they termed seven “leading features” of the program:

1.                Overconfidence by specialists in theories spun from meager evidence.

2.                Conviction fueled by a conjunction of some preexisting personal agendas.

3.                Zeal by health professionals to make their lay superiors do right.

4.                Premature commitment to deciding more than had to be decided.

5.                Failure to address uncertainties in such a way as to prepare for reconsideration.

6.                Insufficient questioning of scientific logic and of implementation prospects.

7.                Insensitivity to media relations and long-term credibility of institutions.[47]

 

            Though the program was viewed as a catastrophe, both by its participants and by newsmen and public citizen alike, it was not without its high points.  As the HEW report’s authors recounted, CDC developed an efficacious surveillance system that would aid the agency in identifying future epidemics.  Furthermore, though the H1N1 swine flu pandemic never materialized, the publicity of the vaccinations introduced many Americans to the concept of regular, annual flu shots.  And finally, in the short actual life of the program—about two and a half months—40 million Americans were vaccinated, which is itself an astonishing achievement and is, indeed, encouraging, should bioterrorism or a future pandemic require fast, mass vaccinations.  Moving from the theoretical to the practical, it can be done.[48]  However, despite the good emanating from the experience, as the report authors noted, the credibility of the CDC had been severely damaged, just in time for the onslaught of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.  Just two years after the program’s end, one newsman said, “CDC was almost the last federal agency widely regarded…as a good thing….Now, CDC’s lost its innocence.”[49]  Unfortunately, as the AIDS epidemic spread, perhaps the risk of crying wolf twice in a decade was one the CDC was likely unwilling to take.

III.       Advances in Epidemiology and Virology after 1976

Seeking to shed light on the origin of the 1918 Spanish Flu, and seeking answers as to why mortality was so high generally, and especially within young, healthy adults, scientists undertook to reconstruct the deadly 1918 Spanish Flu virus.  The results of the project sponsored by the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases provided answers that both shocked and alarmed researchers.  For years, it has been hypothesized that a lack of modern medical equipment and practices (respirators, antibiotics, rigid surveillance, etc.) exacerbated the mortality of the 1918 pandemic.  After reconstructing the 1918 virus, researchers discovered that one of the virus’s surface proteins, its HA gene, was exceptionally virulent, increasing the virus’ pathogenicity (ability to produce disease), and conceivably its communicability as well.[50] 

            After the discovery that the HA gene of the 1918 virus was far more virulent, researchers began to postulate theories as to the high mortality of the 1918 pandemic.  Some scientists postulate that the excessive or larger than expected death toll among healthy, young adults may have been a result of the HA gene’s virulence; essentially, the extreme pathogenicity caused perfectly healthy immune systems to over-activate, leading to severe disease and fatal tissue damage to otherwise healthy adults.  But why did fewer elderly adults die than expected?  Again, answers are somewhat elusive, but scientists believe that an earlier flu pandemic in 1847 may have given at least partial immunity for the elderly.[51]   

            The central question that researchers sought to answer about the 1918 virus was its origin.  After reconstructing the virus, researchers reached conclusions that only gave rise to more questions and more alarm.  Contrary to decades of speculation, the 1918 flu virus was not transmitted from swine to humans.[52]  In fact, the 1918 virus was not the result of gene reassortment between a human and animal virus, as was previously thought necessary for pandemics.  Though the reconstruction strongly suggests that the ultimate origin of the 1918 virus was avian, the 1918 virus underwent gene adaptation instead of gene reassortment.  In other words, the virus adapted by itself, from its original avian host directly to a human host, and achieved a measure of virulence that has since been unparalleled.      Researchers also discovered that during the 1918 pandemic, at least two different strains of the H1N1 virus were circulating, one of them being more virulent due to its ability to latch on to its host’s cells.  On the whole, the researchers believe that its precursor or immediate source was “hidden in an obscure ecological niche before emerging in humans.”[53] 

 

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Research

1918 Influenza Pandemic Caused by Highly Conserved Viruses with Two Receptor-Binding Variants

Ann H. Reid,* Thomas A. Janczewski,* Raina M. Lourens,* Alex J. Elliot,† Rod S. Daniels,† Colin L. Berry,‡ John S. Oxford,‡§ and Jeffery K. Taubenberger*
*Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland, USA; †National Institute for Medical Research, London, United Kingdom; ‡Queen Mary’s School of Medicine and Dentistry, London, United Kingdom; and §Retroscreen Virology, Ltd., London, United Kingdom

Suggested citation for this article: Reid AH, Janczewski TA, Raina M. Lourens RM, Elliot AJ, Rod S, et al. 1918 Influenza pandemic caused by highly conserved viruses with two receptor-binding variants. Emerg Infect Dis [serial online] 2003 Oct [date cited]. Available from: URL: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol9no10/02-0789.htm


The Spanish influenza pandemic swept the globe in the autumn and winter of 1918-19, and resulted in the deaths of approximately 40 million people. Clinically, epidemiologically, and pathologically, the disease was remarkably uniform, which suggests that similar viruses were causing disease around the world. To assess the homogeneity of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, partial hemagglutinin gene sequences have been determined for five cases, including two newly identified samples from London, United Kingdom. The strains show 98.9% to 99.8% nucleotide sequence identity. One of the few differences between the strains maps to the receptor-binding site of hemagglutinin, suggesting that two receptor-binding configurations were co-circulating during the pandemic. The results suggest that in the early stages of an influenza A pandemic, mutations that occur during replication do not become fixed so that a uniform “consensus” strain circulates for some time.

The 1918–19 influenza pandemic began, in some parts of the world, with mild outbreaks in the spring of 1918. In the fall of that year, a lethal wave swept the globe. Outbreaks occurred in early September in North America, Europe, and Africa and spread rapidly, so that the disease had peaked and declined worldwide by the end of December (1–4). Many areas had an additional wave of the disease in the early months of 1919. In most communities, the fall wave of the pandemic lasted approximately l month, with 25% to 30% of the population experiencing symptomatic disease. Clinically, epidemiologically, and pathologically, the disease was remarkably uniform, suggesting that similar viruses were causing disease worldwide (5). To assess the homogeneity of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, partial hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequences were determined for strains from five cases, including two newly identified samples from London, United Kingdom. The strains show 98.9% to 99.8% nucleotide sequence identity. One of the few differences between the strains maps to the receptor-binding site of HA, which suggests that two receptor-binding configurations were co-circulating during the pandemic.

Influenza A virus is capable of rapid genetic change in mammals (6–8). Its polymerase complex lacks proofreading capability, such that one in five virus particles produced is likely to contain a change at one of its approximately 13,500 nt (9). If such a change provides the virus with a competitive advantage, that strain quickly replaces its predecessor. In humans, the need to escape preexisting immunity exerts positive selection pressure on changes in amino acids comprising the antigenic sites of the surface glycoproteins, HA and neuraminidase (NA) (6,10). The process of progressive change in the antigenic properties of the virus is called antigenic drift and results in the emergence of an antigenically distinct variant strain every 2–3 years. Between drift epidemics, the influenza virus appears to be antigenically uniform (11), but the degree of genetic uniformity has not been studied extensively.

In pandemic influenza, one or both of the virus’s surface proteins are replaced with proteins to which the human population has no preexisting immunity (6,12). The virus then spreads explosively, producing symptomatic infection in up to one third of most populations. During the rapid initial spread of a pandemic strain, little antigenic pressure on the virus exists. One might expect the genetic structure under these circumstances to be relatively constant. However, the degree of genetic identity among viral isolates during a pandemic is not known. Very few full-length HA sequences of viruses from the peaks of the 1957 and 1968 pandemics are available, and all of these viruses had been grown at least once in eggs before sequencing—a process that can select for an unpredictable number of sequence changes (13,14). Therefore, this study represents an initial attempt to measure the degree of genetic homogeneity of a pandemic virus. Since the sequences have been obtained directly from clinical material, they contain no sequence changes attributable to culture.

Materials and Methods

Patients and Samples

The genetic sequences encoding the HA1 domains of three 1918 influenza strains have been determined (15,16). Two of the strains came from U.S. soldiers who died on September 26, 1918: one in Camp Upton, New York, and one in Fort Jackson, South Carolina. The third came from an Inuit woman who died in mid-November 1918 in a remote village on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska.

To obtain further samples for analysis, we examined autopsy material of 14 patients who died in the fall and winter of 1918 to 1919. The material consisted of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissues, stained slides, and clinical records from the files of the Morbid Anatomy Department of the Royal London Hospital. The cases were preselected by histologic criteria for further analysis, and samples were taken from patients who died from acute influenza after clinical courses of <1 week (16–18). Of these 14 lung samples, 4 were positive for influenza RNA on subsequent molecular genetic analysis, but only 2 had sufficient material for HA1 sequencing. The first patient was a 50-year-old woman admitted to the hospital on November 12, 1918, with influenza and pneumonia. She died on November 13. The postmortem diagnosis was bronchopneumonia. The second patient was a 25-year-old man admitted to the hospital on February 13, 1919. He died on February 15 of influenza. The postmortem diagnosis was lobar pneumonia with toxemia.

Methods

Sample preparation, reverse transcription, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and sequencing were performed as described previously (15). (Primers used are available upon request.) PCR was performed from at least two separate reverse transcription reactions, and products from at least two PCR reactions were sequenced in each case to ensure accuracy and exclude amplification artifacts. Sequences used to evaluate the complexity of pandemic and epidemic influenza strains were obtained from the Influenza Sequence Database (available from: URL: http://www.flu.lanl.gov/).

Results

Figure
Figure.

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Figure. Partial HA1 domain cDNA sequences from five 1918-19 cases...

The 563-bp fragments sequenced for this study, encoding the antigenic and receptor-binding sites of the HA1 domain (19–21), represent the most variable portion of the influenza genome (Figure). The London cases were designated A/London/1/1918 (H1N1) and A/London/1/1919 (H1N1). These two sequences, when compared to the three previously sequenced North American strains (15), differ from each other by 1 nt to 3 nt, showing a sequence identity of 98.9% to 99.8%.

A/London/1/1918 shows 2 nt differences, compared to A/Brevig Mission/1/1918, one of which would change the amino acid at codon 188 from G to S (amino acid numbering is aligned to the H3 influenza HA). This residue is near several of the residues that have been shown experimentally to affect receptor-binding specificity of H1 HAs (21–23) and next to one of the mapped Sb antigenic site residues (19,20). A/London/1/1919 shows 3 nt differences from A/Brevig Mission/1/1918, 2 of which are nonsynonymous, resulting in changes of V223I and D225G. The V223I change is near Ca antigenic site residues, and the D225G change is at a residue that functions both in receptor-binding and as a Ca antigenic site residue. Amino acid 225 also varies among North American strains; A/New York/1/1918, like A/London/1/1919, has a glycine at position 225, as do most avian influenza strains. A/South Carolina/1/1918 and A/Brevig Mission/1/1918, like A/London/1/1918 and most subsequent human H1 strains, have aspartic acid at this position (Figure) (15). The relative genetic homogeneity of the 1918–19 isolates encouraged us to analyze sequences from the 1957 and 1968 pandemics.

GenBank contains complete HA1 domain–encoding sequences for eight 1957 H2N2 strains. As noted in previous studies of receptor-binding specificity (22,24), the 1957 strains have undergone varying passage histories, but all have been passed at least once. Three of the strains have been sequenced more than once and differ by as many as 8 nt within the same strain. Between sequences, the number of nucleotide differences ranges from only 1 nt difference between A/Chile/6/1957 and A/Davis/1/1957 to 12 differences between one of the A/Japan/305/1957 sequences and one of the A/Singapore/1/1957 sequences. Overall, the sequences show 98.9% to 99.9% identity at the nucleotide level, and 98.5% to 100% identity at the amino acid level.

More limited sequence data are available for the 1968 H3N2 pandemic strains. The complete HA1 domain sequence is available for only three strains, two of which have been sequenced twice each. The two A/NT/60/68/29C sequences differ by 4 nt. The most divergent sequences differ by 24 nt (A/NT/60/68/29C vs. A/Hong Kong/1/68), thus showing 97.6% to 100% identity between sequences at the nucleotide level, and 96.0% to 100% identity at the amino acid level.

Studies from epidemic years have yielded similar results. A 2001 study (25) examined variation in the HA gene of human H3N2 viruses in Spain from 1996 to 2000. During this time, strains antigenically similar to A/Wuhan/359/1995 were replaced by strains similar to A/Sydney/5/1997 and then by strains similar to A/Panama/2007/1999. Within the groups of viruses belonging to each antigenic group, sequence variation was minimal. For example, among the viruses that reacted antigenically with Sydney, but not Panama and Wuhan, 2–10 nt differences occurred over the 591 nt sequenced (98.3% to 99.7% identity).

An unpublished study provides sequences of the HA1 domain of the H3-subtype HA of 16 A/Sydney/05/1997-like (H3N2) influenza virus isolates circulating in Canada during the 1997/98 influenza epidemic season (GenBank no. AF087700–AF087702, AF087707, AF087708, AF096306–AF096316) (26). Two of the isolates had identical sequences, while the others varied by 1 nt to 14 nt over 981 nt (98.6% to 100% identity).

Discussion

The three North American 1918 influenza strains sequenced previously were isolated from patients separated by nearly 2 months in time and almost 4,000 miles in distance (27). Two nucleotide differences were found among these three strains, one of which resulted in an amino acid substitution in the receptor-binding site (15). All three cases likely derived from the initial introduction of the fall wave into the United States, believed to have occurred in Boston in early September 1918. The virus then spread rapidly from Camp Devens, Massachusetts, the first U.S. army base to experience the epidemic, which then reached army bases throughout the eastern United States within 2 weeks (2). Influenza probably reached Brevig Mission, Alaska, via Seattle, Washington. The pandemic reached Camp Lewis, Washington, in mid-September, following the arrival of a troop ship from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (1,2), and spread to Seattle by late September. After careful screening to exclude sick passengers, a ship left Seattle for Nome, Alaska, in mid-October, but days after its arrival local residents began falling ill (1). An account of the pandemic as it occurred in Brevig Mission reports that visitors from Nome brought the disease to the village in November (28). This chain of events suggests that the Alaskan outbreak was not the result of a separate introduction of the 1918 influenza from Asia to the West Coast of the United States.

The spring wave of the 1918 epidemic was widespread in France and Spain during April and May but did not reach England until June. The fall wave also arrived somewhat later in England than in continental Europe and the United States; peak mortality in London occurred during the first 2 weeks of November (2). A second peak occurred in the third week of February 1919. One strain from each of these peaks was sequenced for this study.

Our results show that strains separated by over 7,500 miles (Brevig Mission, Alaska, to London, United Kingdom) and several months (September 26, 1918, to February 15, 1919) share a sequence identity of 99%. This level of genetic homogeneity is slightly higher than that seen for the available 1957 and 1968 pandemic strains, but the 1957 and 1968 strains were not sequenced directly from clinical material. Sequences from different passages of the same strain were sometimes as different from each other as they were from other strains (29), suggesting that sequence heterogeneity observed was the result of culture adaptation, making it impossible to determine how homogeneous the pandemic viruses actually were. Even so, the 1957 and 1968 pandemic strains show >97% identity between strains. Similar levels of genetic homogeneity were seen in strains from case-patients isolated from a drift epidemic in 1997. Thus, influenza viruses circulating during a single outbreak, whether epidemic or pandemic, show levels of sequence identity consistent with the uniformity of the 1918 cases.

Despite the uniformity of the 1918 strains, one of the variable sites is an amino acid known to be important in receptor binding (21). At a subset of amino acids critical for receptor binding, avian strains differ from swine H1s at only one amino acid, E190D (15). At these amino acids, two of the cases (A/New York/1/1918 and A/London/1/1919) are identical to that of A/sw/Iowa/1976/31 (a classical swine strain). The other 1918 cases have an additional change from the avian consensus at amino acid 225. Since swine viruses with the same receptor site as A/sw/Iowa/1976/31 bind both SAa2,3Gal and SAa2,6Gal (14), A/New York/1/1918 and A/London/1/1919 probably also had the capacity to bind both receptors. Because two of five 1918-19 analyzed fall wave strains from case-patients have the swine-like receptor-binding pattern, the E190D change alone is apparently sufficient to allow viral replication in the human respiratory tract. However, the existence of three strains with the additional G225D change shows that both receptor-binding variants were co-circulating throughout the pandemic. The current evidence does not suggest progression from one receptor-binding pattern to the other during the pandemic, since the two variants are present, on both continents, both early and late in the pandemic. Since residue 225 has also been identified as part of the Ca antigenic site (19), the co-circulating strains possibly differed in antigenic reactivity as well as receptor-binding characteristics.

This study is the first to examine the genetic homogeneity of a pandemic influenza virus directly from clinical material. The results suggest that in the early stages of a pandemic, mutations that occur during replication do not become fixed so that a uniform consensus strain circulates for some time. Studies of influenza strains circulating after 1919 should provide insight into how pandemic viruses evolve after the initial waves through immunologically vulnerable populations. In terms of pandemic planning, our results indicate that a specific antiviral drug or vaccine would have a uniform effect during the important and often lethal first wave of a pandemic (30,31).

This work was supported by a grant from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01 AI50619-01) to J.K.T. and by the intramural funds of the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology. J.S.O., C.L.B., and R.S.D. gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Wellcome Trust and the Ian Heap fund.

Ms. Reid is a research biologist in the Molecular Pathology Division at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology. Her principal research interest is pandemic influenza.

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  23. Matrosovich MN, Gambaryan AS, Tuzikov AB, Byramova NE, Mochalova LV, Golbraikh AA, et al. Probing of the receptor-binding sites of the H1 and H3 influenza A and influenza B virus hemagglutinins by synthetic and natural sialosides. Virology 1993;196:111–21.
  24. Matrosovich M, Tuzikov A, Bovin N, Gambaryan A, Klimov A, Castrucci MR, et al. Early alterations of the receptor-binding properties of H1, H2, and H3 avian influenza virus hemagglutinins after their introduction into mammals. J Virol 2000;74:8502–12.
  25. Coiras MT, Aguilar JC, Galiano M, Carlos S, Gregory V, Lin YP, et al. Rapid molecular analysis of the haemagglutinin gene of human influenza A H3N2 viruses isolated in Spain from 1996 to 2000. Arch Virol 2001;146:2133–47.
  26. Macken C, Lu H, Goodman J, Boykin L. The value of a database in surveillance and vaccine selection. In: Osterhaus A, Cox N, Hampson A, editors. Options for the control of influenza IV. Amsterdam: Excerpta Medica; 2001. p. 103–6.
  27. Reid AH, Taubenberger JK. The 1918 flu and other influenza pandemics: “over there” and back again. Lab Invest 1999;79:95–101.
  28. Fosso C. Alone with death on the Tundra. In: Hedin R, Holthaus G, editors. Alaska: Reflections on land and spirit. Tucscon (AZ): University of Arizona Press; 1989. p. 215–22.
  29. Connor R, Kawaoka Y, Webster R, Paulson J. Receptor specificity in human, avian, and equine H2 and H3 influenza virus isolates. Virology 1994;205:17–23.
  30. Gensheimer KF, Fukuda K, Brammer L, Cox N, Patriarca PA, Strikes RA. Preparing for pandemic influenza: the need for enhanced surveillance. Vaccine 2002;20(Suppl 2):S63–5.
  31. Hayden FG. Perspectives on antiviral use during pandemic influenza. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2001;356:1877–84.
source
 
 
...................................
 
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12 cases of human infection with such viruses were identified in the United States from 2005 through 2009.3
.
 
 

Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Invest. Emergence of a Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus in Humans. 10.1056/NEJMoa0903810
submited by kickingbird at May, 9, 2009 7:49 AM from 10.1056/NEJMoa0903810

Background On April 15 and April 17, 2009, novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) was identified in specimens obtained from two epidemiologically unlinked patients in the United States. The same strain of the virus was identified in Mexico, Canada, and elsewhere. We describe 642 confirmed cases of human S-OIV infection identified from the rapidly evolving U.S. outbreak.

Methods Enhanced surveillance was implemented in the United States for human infection with influenza A viruses that could not be subtyped. Specimens were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction confirmatory testing for S-OIV.

Results From April 15 through May 5, a total of 642 confirmed cases of S-OIV infection were identified in 41 states. The ages of patients ranged from 3 months to 81 years; 60% of patients were 18 years of age or younger. Of patients with available data, 18% had recently traveled to Mexico, and 16% were identified from school outbreaks of S-OIV infection. The most common presenting symptoms were fever (94% of patients), cough (92%), and sore throat (66%); 25% of patients had diarrhea, and 25% had vomiting. Of the 399 patients for whom hospitalization status was known, 36 (9%) required hospitalization. Of 22 hospitalized patients with available data, 12 had characteristics that conferred an increased risk of severe seasonal influenza, 11 had pneumonia, 8 required admission to an intensive care unit, 4 had respiratory failure, and 2 died. The S-OIV was determined to have a unique genome composition that had not been identified previously.

Conclusions A novel swine-origin influenza A virus was identified as the cause of outbreaks of febrile respiratory infection ranging from self-limited to severe illness. It is likely that the number of confirmed cases underestimates the number of cases that have occurred.


Triple-reassortant swine influenza viruses, which contain genes from human, swine, and avian influenza A viruses, have been identified in swine in the United States since 1998,1,2 and 12 cases of human infection with such viruses were identified in the United States from 2005 through 2009.3 On April 15 and April 17, 2009, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identified two cases of human infection with a swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) characterized by a unique combination of gene segments that had not been identified among human or swine influenza A viruses. As of May 5, 2009, cases of human infection with the same novel virus have also been identified in Mexico, Canada, and elsewhere. We report the first 643 confirmed cases of human infection with this virus in the United States.

Methods

Patients in Outbreak

On March 30, 2009, in San Diego County, California, a 10-year-old boy with asthma (Patient 1) had an onset of fever, cough, and vomiting. On April 1, he was evaluated in an urgent care clinic, where he received treatment for his symptoms. He recovered from the illness within approximately 1 week. An influenza A virus that could not be sub-typed was identified from a nasopharyngeal specimen that was collected from Patient 1 as part of a clinical trial to evaluate an experimental diagnostic test. As specified by the study protocol, the specimen was then sent to a reference laboratory for further testing and was found to be positive for influenza A virus but negative for both human H1 and H3 subtypes, with the use of real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) testing. On April 15, the CDC received the clinical specimen and identified a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus of swine origin. On the same day, the CDC notified the California Department of Public Health, and an epidemiologic investigation was initiated by state and local health department officials and animal health officials. A viral isolate was found to contain genes from triple-reassortant swine influenza viruses that were known to circulate among swine herds in North America and two genes encoding the neuraminidase and matrix proteins that were most closely related to genes of viruses obtained from ill pigs in Eurasia, according to results available in GenBank.

On March 28, 2009, in Imperial County, California, a 9-year-old girl (Patient 2) without an epidemiologic link to Patient 1 had an onset of cough and fever. Two days later, she was taken to an outpatient clinic that was participating in an influenza surveillance project. A nasopharyngeal swab was collected at the clinic. Patient 2 was treated with amoxicillin–clavulanate, and she had an uneventful recovery. The nasopharyngeal specimen was sent to the Naval Health Research Center in San Diego, where an influenza A virus that could not be subtyped was identified. The specimen was shipped to the CDC, where it was received on April 17, and a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus of swine origin was identified. The genotype of the virus was similar to that of the virus isolated from the sample obtained from Patient 1. On April 17, both cases were reported to the World Health Organization (WHO), according to the provisions of the International Health Regulations.

Epidemiologic investigation of Patients 1 and 2 revealed that neither patient had a recent history of exposure to swine. According to protocol, the identification of these two epidemiologically unlinked patients with novel S-OIV infection prompted the CDC to notify state and local health departments, which initiated case investigations and implemented enhanced surveillance for influenza A viruses that could not be subtyped. The CDC issued recommendations to clinicians, asking that they consider the diagnosis of S-OIV infection in patients with an acute febrile respiratory illness who met the following criteria: residence in an area where confirmed cases of human infection with S-OIV had been identified, a history of travel to such areas, or contact with ill persons from these areas in the 7 days before the onset of illness. If S-OIV infection was suspected in a patient, clinicians were asked to obtain a nasopharyngeal swab from the patient and to contact their state and local health departments in order to facilitate initial testing of the specimen by RT-PCR assay at the state public health laboratory. State public health laboratories were asked to send all specimens identified as influenza A viruses that could not be subtyped to the CDC for further investigation. Additional cases were identified with the use of a nationally standardized case definition of confirmed swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection, which was defined as an acute febrile respiratory illness with the presence of S-OIV confirmed by real-time RT-PCR, viral culture, or both.

This report was exempt from the requirement for institutional review, and the privacy rule of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act did not apply since it was a public health investigation.

See Also:

Latest articles in those days:

source
 
 
.......................................
 
 
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 Biochem Biophys Res Commun. 2007 Apr 27;356(1):91-6. Epub 2007 Feb 27. Links

 
 
Isolation and genetic analysis of human origin H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses from pigs in China.
 
 
Yu H, Zhang GH, Hua RH, Zhang Q, Liu TQ, Liao M, Tong GZ.
National Key Laboratory of Veterinary Biotechnology, Harbin Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Harbin 150001, PR China.

Influenza A viruses of subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 have been reported widely in pigs, associated with clinical disease.

 
These mainly include classical swine H1N1, avian-like H1N1, and human-like or avian-like H3N2 viruses.


From 2005 to 2006, we carried out swine influenza virus surveillance in eight provinces of China. Here we report, for the first time, the isolation and genetic analysis of a human-like influenza H1N1 virus from a pig in a farm of Guangdong province of southern China, a host suspected to generate new pandemic strains through genetic reassortment.


Each of the eight gene segments is of human origin. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that these genes form a human lineage, suggesting that this virus is the descendant of recent human H1N1 influenza viruses.


In addition, four swine H3N2 viruses were also isolated.

 
The three H3N2 viruses from Guangdong province are descendants of recent human viruses, while an H3N2 virus from Heilongjiang province derives from early human viruses.


Isolation and genetic analysis of human H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses from pigs in China provides further evidence about the interspecies transmission of human influenza viruses to pigs and emphasizes the importance of reinforcing swine influenza virus surveillance.

PMID: 17346674 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE


source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17346674?ordinalpos=1&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_

DiscoveryPanel.Pubmed_Discovery_RA&linkpos=1&log$=relatedarticles&logdbfrom=pubm
 
 
 
 
 
...................................................
 
 
1: Emerg Infect Dis. 2008 Sep;14(9):1470-2.  Links

Human case of swine influenza A (H1N1) triple reassortant virus infection, Wisconsin.

Newman AP, Reisdorf E, Beinemann J, Uyeki TM, Balish A, Shu B, Lindstrom S, Achenbach J, Smith C, Davis JP.
 
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. apn01@health.state.ny.us
 
 
Zoonotic infections with swine influenza A viruses are reported sporadically. Triple reassortant swine influenza viruses have been isolated from pigs in the United States since 1998.
 
 
We report a human case of upper respiratory illness associated with swine influenza A (H1N1) triple reassortant virus infection that occurred during 2005 following exposure to freshly killed pigs.
 
 
PMID: 18760023 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
ed
 
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New South Wales...needed UPDATE to May 3rd info...
 
 

03 May 2009

Human swine flu update

Chief Health Officer, Dr Kerry Chant, today confirmed that 237 people have been assessed by public health experts as meeting the definition of a suspected case of human swine influenza.

Following assessment and testing 201 people have been cleared.

Dr Chant said there are still no actual cases of human swine influenza in NSW.

“There are currently 36 people awaiting test results.”

This morning 12 passengers were assessed at Sydney Airport influenza clinics,1 of these met the suspect case definition and was referred for public health follow-up.

These people have each been provided with home isolation packs whilst they await their results.

It is necessary for all suspect cases to remain in isolation pending test results. In most cases people can remain in their own home. People should sleep in a separate room and remain at least 1 metre away from other people in the house, said Dr Chant.

“It is important that whilst awaiting test results people do not go to work, school or any outside events.

“The anti-influenza drugs Tamiflu or Relenza will be made available to those people developed symptoms less than 48 hours prior to assessment and who are suspected cases,” said Dr. Chant.

Summary of suspected and confirmed influenza cases in NSW
NSW region Suspected Cases* Confirmed Cases**
Sydney Metro and Surrounds    
Northern Sydney and the Central Coast 7 0
South-Eastern Sydney and the Illawarra 8 0
Sydney South West 10 0
Sydney West 6 0
Regional and rural    
Hunter and New England 0 0
North Coast 3 0
Greater Southern 1 0
Greater Western 1 0
Total 36 0

(Current as of 3 May 2009, 1100 hours EST)

..........................
 source
 
 
..............
 
 
and the earlier word on the street was.... (not official as above)
 

Siobhain Ryan | April 29, 2009

Article from:  The Australian

SUSPECTED cases of swine flu have spread to every state and territory in the country, with 91 people across Australia now in isolation, awaiting test results for the deadly A/H1N1 virus.

SOURCE
 
 
..........
 
 
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.
 
Interesting Audio
..............................

Beginning in August....we will see Asian Virus here from six months prior
 
A whirlpool of viruses circulating endlessly in *East and Southeast Asia* are passed to
us here in the U.S. by civil transport...
 
Flu, a wintertime disease.... but in Thailand, Malaysia....no winter... flu in tropical
 
countries happens in the rainy season ...epidemics
 
Spontaneous Tamiflu resistance...
 
A pandemic isn't necessisarily the end of the world...
 

Listen here... let it load and click on the tiny arrow-
 
 
.......................
 
 
 
 
 
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Thank you to LisaP for this site....
 
 
Please scroll down
for H1N1 swine flu Twitter updates
 
 
 
............................
 
 
 
 
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While Doing Good Deeds
 
 
Our flus come fron N. and S. East Asia.   No Wonder.

More than 5,500 Sailors traveling to Malaysia...Hong Komg...Philippines...

And back to Southern California in November 2008.

................................................................................................................................


USS Ronald Reagan Strike Group Arrives in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

..................................................................................................................

Posted by SOF Editor on August 20th, 2008 No Comments Printer-Friendly


Three ships and more than 5,500 Sailors


of Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 7 arrived in Malaysia for a port visit Aug. 18.

The strike group’s flagship, the Nimitz-class nuclear aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), embarked Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 14, the guided-missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville (CG 62) and the guided-missile destroyer USS Gridley (DDG 101) pulled into Port Kelang.

“This visit helps build maritime cooperation and cultural understanding between the United States and Malaysia,” said Rear Adm. Phil Wisecup, commander, Carrier Strike Group 7. “We’re all pretty excited to visit a modern, vibrant city like Kuala Lumpur.”

This marks the fifth port visit for CSG 7 during its 2008 Western Pacific deployment, and the second visit to Malaysia by USS Ronald Reagan. The carrier last visited in June 2006.

“Our Sailors plan to do some sightseeing and shopping in this magnificent country,” said Capt. Kenneth Norton, Ronald Reagan’s commanding officer. “They’ll also make a positive impact for the needy ashore.”

More than 320 strike group Sailors will volunteer their time and efforts in eight community service projects in Malaysian orphanages, schools and homes for the elderly.

article cont...
http://www.sofmag.com/wp/2008/08/uss-ronald-reagan-strike-group-arrives-in-kuala-lumpur-malaysia/

 


and Back again....
     
  
 
 
Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group Returns Home After Deployment

....................................................................................................................

Story Number: NNS081125-26
Release Date: 11/25/2008 8:15:00 PM

 

From Carrier Strike Group 7 Public Affairs

SAN DIEGO (NNS) --


Five ships and more than 5,500 Sailors

 

of Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 7


returned to their homeport of San Diego Nov. 25 after a six-month deployment


to the 7th Fleet and 5th Fleet areas of responsibility.

The strike group flagship, the Nimitz-class nuclear aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), the guided-missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville (CG 62), the guided-missile destroyers USS Decatur (DDG 73) and USS Gridley (DDG 101) and the guided-missile frigate USS Thach (FFG 43) arrived to meet thousands of family members waiting on the pier.

The deployment was the third-ever for the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group, which performed combat operations in support of coalition troops in Afghanistan, as well as carrying out a humanitarian assistance/disaster relief mission in the Philippines in response to Typhoon Fengshen in June and July.

"There is no question that Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group had a very successful deployment," said Commander, Carrier Strike Group 7, Rear Adm. Scott Hebner.

"The talented and dedicated Sailors of this group demonstrated tremendous operational flexibility and performed at the highest levels of excellence across the warfare spectrum and core capabilities of the Maritime Strategy. They were warriors, ambassadors, partners and humanitarians. They represent all that is good in our country and I'm profoundly honored to sail with this impressive strike group."

The deployment ceased being routine when Mother Nature unleashed its wrath on the Philippines. Typhoon Fengshen struck the nation hard, particularly on the island of Panay, leaving 540 dead and destroying more than 100,000 homes.

The Ronald Reagan Strike Group, which was enjoying its first port call of the deployment in Hong Kong, left port a day early to avoid the storm and after receiving an order from President Bush, immediately steamed to the Philippines to help.
 
article cont...
http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=41128

 
 
........................................
 
 

........................................

 
 
 
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   S-OIV  ....    simply the latest strain of H1 hemagglutinin virus which first appeared
 
    in both humans and swine in 1918 and has returned in different variants ever since.
 
 
NEJM
New England Journal of Medicine
............................................................

Triple-Reassortant Swine Virus Seen Since 2005 in US


NEJM releases content addressing various issues related to outbreak


THURSDAY, May 7 (HealthDay News)


Eleven cases of infection similar to the swine flu outbreak currently under way -- triple-reassortant swine influenza A (H1) viruses -- have been documented since 2005 in the United States, according to a study led by researchers at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta and released May 7 by the New England Journal of Medicine. This study was accompanied by another study, two editorials, and three perspectives focused on the swine flu outbreak.

 

The NEJM noted that the swine origin influenza virus (S-OIV) that causes the H1N1 flu is simply the latest strain of H1 hemagglutinin virus which first appeared in both humans and swine in 1918 and has returned in different variants ever since.

 

The S-OIV will continue to mutate in unknown ways over the coming months and might even replace H1 virus as the seasonal flu virus, evolving new antigenic variants every year, the journal speculated. To further support clinicians, who will be challenged to recognize the disease when it returns, the journal said it will establish an H1N1 Influenza Center at NEJM.org to provide information and links to the latest data on the outbreak.


In an editorial, the NEJM urged clinicians to prepare for the next wave of H1N1 flu in the fall and drug manufacturers to launch an accelerated program to develop a vaccine in time.


"Completing seasonal-vaccine production and adding a monovalent S-OIV vaccine to production will be challenging both technically and in terms of policy, but it can be done," the NEJM editorialized.


source
http://www.modernmedicine.com/modernmedicine/Pathology/Triple-Reassortant-Swine-Virus-Seen-Since-2005-in-/ArticleNewsFeed/Article/detail/597185

..................................................
 
 
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Please note the areas....  of H5...... Calif.  ... TEXAS...  Mexico
 
 
 
 
Did you know?
 
H5 has been In North America Since 2002
......................................................

Scroll down..
 
 
.

Idaho (Payette County)
Approximately 30,000 game birds (pheasants, chukars, partridges, mallard ducks) which are bred and used for release activities (hunting).
30,000 birds had contact with wild birds...  test was positive for AI.

The designation of "low pathogenic" or "highly pathogenic" does not refer
to how infectious the viruses may be to humans.
.....................................................................................................................

August 2008: the NVSL confirmed an H5 positive, N1 negative PCR finding.

• The premises was quarantined by the Idaho Department of Agriculture on 29 August 2008.
• Enhanced surveillance and epidemiological investigation of the game bird premises began on 29 August 2008 by the Idaho Department of Agriculture officials, in conjunction with USDA APHIS Veterinary Services personnel.
• 2 September 2008: the NVSL confirmed and reported an H5N8 positive virus from samples taken from pheasants on the game bird premises.
• 3 September 2008: sequencing results from NVSL were compatible with low pathogenic avian influenza. The sequence is approximately 98.5% similar to A/mallard/BC/373/2005 H5N2 and 98.3% similar to A/tundra swan/AK/44049-168/2006 H5N2.

.......................................

Evolution of H5 subtype avian influenza A viruses in North America
 
Abstract-
.................
 
Received 15 April 1997
revised 7 July 1997; 
accepted 7 July 1998. ;
Available online 5 August 2003.
 
 
...The most genetically unstable of these sub-lineages is composed of recent poultry isolates from the outbreak of AI in Central Mexico.

This group of viruses, which replicated unabated in chickens for at least 16 months,
 
exhibited an increased rate of mutation in both the HA and NS gene. Comparison of the HA1 sequence data for all available North American H5 subtype viruses demonstrated minimal variation both in and around the amino acids predicted to be involved in the HA receptor binding site.

The sequences also revealed that migratory waterfowl, live poultry market chicken, and turkey isolates uniformly lack a glycosylation site at amino acid 236 in the HA protein which is present in commercial chicken isolates.
 
..........................................................................................................................................
 
 
Characterization of recent H5 subtype avian influenza viruses from US poultry

Abstract
..................
 
if you wish to download/view  the article go here
 
 
 
 
In the US, the isolation of H5 subtype avian influenza (AI) viruses has been uncommon in commercial chickens and turkeys, although sporadic isolations have been made from the live bird markets or its supply chain since 1986.

In 2002, two different outbreaks of H5 AI occurred in commercial chicken or turkey operations.
 
The first occurred in Texas and was identified as a H5N3 subtype AI virus.

The second outbreak was caused by a H5N2 virus isolated from a turkey farm in California.

 
In this study we analyzed recent H5 subtype AI viruses from different avian species and different sources in the US.

 
Most recent H5 subtype isolates shared a high sequence identity and phylogenetically assorted into a separate clade from the Pennsylvania/83 lineage isolates.

 
However, no established lineage was found within this clade and the recent H5 subtype isolates seemed to be the result of separate introductions from the wild bird reservoir.
 
 
 
The Texas H5N3 isolate shared the lowest homology with the other recent isolates in the haemagglutinin gene and had a unique haemagglutinin cleavage site sequence of REKR/G (other recent isolates have the typical avirulent motif, RETR/G).
 
 
Furthermore, this isolate had a 28 amino acid deletion in the stalk region of the neuraminidase protein, a common characteristic of chicken adapted influenza viruses, and may indicate that this virus had actually been circulating in poultry for an extended period of time before it was isolated. In agreement with genetic evidence,

 
the Texas H5N3 isolate replicated better than other H5 isolates in experimentally infected chickens. The outbreak in Texas with a more chicken-adapted H5N3 virus underscores the importance of ongoing surveillance and control efforts regarding the H5 subtype AI virus in the US.

view references (27) : view citations
 
 
..................................
 
 
 (Mary08)
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H5N1   .... kinda widespread

Did we think it could be ALL OVER the world..... Just not here?

 


http://wildlifedisease.nbii.gov

 
9/20/08 Butler, IA Mallard Hunter killed  USDA Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1


10/31/07 Saint Clair, MI American black duck Hunter killed  MI Dept of Natural Resources Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1


9/29/07 Cascade, MT Mallard Hunter killed  Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks/USDA Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1


6/18/07 Kent, MD Mallard Live birds  USDA/Avian Influenza Coordinated Agricultural Project (AICAP) Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1

 

5/21/07 Cape May, NJ Ruddy turnstone Live birds  Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1


5/10/07 Cape May, NJ Ruddy Turnstone  Live birds  Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1


10/27/06 Sussex, DE Green-winged teal Hunter killed  USDA/DE Department of Natural Resources Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1


10/21/06 Grundy, IL Mallard ducks Hunter killed  USDA/IL Dept of Natural Resources Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1


10/19/06 St. Claire, MI Mallard ducks Hunter killed  USDA/MI Dept of Natural Resources Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1


8/28/06 Crawford, PA Mallard ducks Live birds  USDA/PA Game Commission Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1


8/8/06 Monroe, MI Mute Swans Hunter killed  USDA/MI Dept of Natural Resources Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1


8/2/06 Queen Annes, MD Resident wild Mallard ducks Environmental  USDA/Avian Influenza Coordinated Agricultural Project (AICAP) Yes  Yes  Not related to HPAI H5N1; Suspected LPAI H5N1

......................
 
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Virulence Determinants

Analysis of previous virulent human influenza strains and highly pathogenic avian strains has led to the identification of amino acid alterations that appear to confer higher levels of virulence under certain experimental conditions (see Table below). Only two of these known determinants of virulence have been found in the sequences of the newly emerging strains. Their significance in the context of these emerging strains remains to be determined.

INFLUENZA VIRUS VIRULENCE DETERMINANTS1

Protein

Amino Acid Position

Less Virulent Amino Acid

More Virulent Amino Acid

Functional Effect

North American H1N1

PB1-F2

66

N

S

Altered function

Protein Not Present

PB2

627

E

K

HA cleavage site

E

PB2

701

D

N

HA cleavage site

D

PB2

199

A

S

Human transmission*

A

PB2

661

A

T

Human transmission*

A

PB2

667

I

Human transmission*

V

PB2

702

R

Human transmission*

K

PA

409

S

N

Human transmission*

N

NP

136

L

M

Human transmission*

I

NA (N1)

stalk

No deletion

19 a.a. deletion

Human transmission*

No deletion

M2

16

A

G

Human transmission*

E

M2

28

V

V

Human transmission*

I

M2

55

C

F

Human transmission*

F

NS1

92

T

E

Increased severity of disease**

D

...more

* May have facilitated transfer to man.

**May be due to high levels of induction of TNF-α and IFN-β.

POLYBASIC REGION AT HA CLEAVAGE SITE DETERMINES PATHOGENICITY2

Virus Isolate

Pathogenicity

Sequence at the HA Cleavage Site

North American H1N1

A/Goose/Guangdong/1/96 (H5N1)

Virulent

PQRE-------RRRKKR/G3

Not present

A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1)

Virulent

PQRE-------TRRKKR/G4,5

Not present

A/Hong Kong/486/97 (H5N1)

Virulent

PQRE-------RRRKKR/G4,5

Not present

A/Viet Nam/DN-33/04 (H5N1)

Virulent

PQRE-------RRRKKR/G6

Not present

A/Thailand/2(SP-33)/04 (H5N1)

Virulent

PQRE-------RRRKKR/G7

Not present

A/Thailand/NK165/05 (H5N1)

Virulent

PQRE-------KRRKKR/G8

Not present

References

1. Baigent SJ and McCauley JW. Influenza type A in humans, mammals and birds: determinants of virus virulence, host-range and interspecies transmission. BioEssays, 2003; 25:657-671.

2. Fields Virology, 5th ed. Chapter 48: Orthomyxoviruses, p. 1713, Table 48.4. Wolters Kluwer Health / Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, 2007.

3. Xu X, Subbarao K, Cox NJ, Guo Y. Genetic characterization of the pathogenic influenza A/Goose/Guangdong/1/96 (H5N1) virus: similarity of its hemagglutinin gene to those of HN5N1 viruses from the 1997 outbreaks in Hong Kong. Virology, 1999; 261:15-19.

4. Claas EC, Osterhaus AD, Van Beek R, et al. Human influenza A H5N1 virus related to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus. Lancet, 1998; 351:472-467.

5. Subbarao KI, Klimov A, Katz J, et al. Characterization of an avian influenza A (H5N1) virus isolated from a child with a fatal respiratory illness. Science, 1998; 279:393-396.

6. GenBank Accession Number AAV73980.

7. Puthavathana P, Auewarakul P, Charoenying PC, et al. Molecular characterization of the complete genome of human influenza H5N1 virus isolates from Thailand. J Gen Virol, 2005; 86:423-433.

8. GenBank Accession Number ABD16284. ←collapse

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Genome Analysis

Comparative Sequence Analysis

We have compiled multiple sequence alignments and phylogenetic trees for emergent North American H1N1 virus strains. The phylogenetic trees were computed using the HKS + gamma model of evolution with 5 categories. Five categories of strains have been selected for each segment/protein, as follows:

a) Current outbreak strains (H1N1, Human): approx. 10 strains distributed by geographic origin as follows: 3 California, 3 Texas, 2 New York, 2-3 Other (Toronto, Germany, New Zealand)
b) Approx. 10 H1N1, human, USA, 2007-2008 strains
c) Approx. 10 H1N1, swine, USA, 1990-2008 strains
d) Approx. 10 H1N1, avian, USA, 1990-2008 strains
e) Approx. 5 Hong Kong, swine, H1N1 strains.

For categories a, b, and c, that had >10 sequences, strains were selected based on geographic distribution and length. Therefore, shorter sequence with unique locations would be included before longer, duplicate locations. More recent sequences were selected if all other criteria were met. Avian strains (category d) were selected by host species, length, and isolation date (recent isolates). Finally, Hong Kong swine strains (category e) sequences were selected by length and isolation date. In some cases, especially for the polymerase segments, the only sequences in the database were too short to be considered. ←collapse

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Immune Epitope Analysis

Recurrent infection of humans by influenza virus occurs due to the evasion of pre-existing immunity through sequence alterations in those parts of the influenza proteins that are normally recognized by the host immune response – immune epitopes. In the case of seasonal flu, single nucleotide variations leading to amino acid substitutions in immune eptiopes allow some level of infection before the memory response can be altered and optimized to respond to the new variants. In the case of the emergence of an outbreak strain, dramatic changes in protein sequences normally recognized by the adaptive immune system lead to viruses that are unrecognizable by the pre-existing immunity.

Epitope recognition by membrane-bound and soluble immunoglobulin antibodies is thought to play an early role in the antiviral response by coating virions and preventing cellular infection, and by capturing antigen for presentation to the cellular arm of the immune system. Several investigators have identified B cell/antibody epitopes on the two major influenza proteins exposed on the virion particle surface – hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) – in the previously circulating human H1N1. Nine continuous B cell/antibody epitopes for human H1N1 HA proteins have been defined experimentally by IEDB (see Figure). Some of these show extensive overlap in amino acid positions (e.g. 124-136 and 127-137). These epitopes cluster in four regions of the HA protein – region 1 (a. a. 124-137), region 2 (a. a. 167-185), region 3 (a. a. 207-226), and region 4 (a. a. 332-356). The location of each of these previously characterized B cell/antibody epitopes is indicated in the context of a multiple sequence alignment comparing the previously circulating A/human/2007(H1N1) and the emerging North American A influenza (H1N1) protein sequences (Figure). Seven of the 9 epitopes show at least one amino acid difference between the H1N1 viruses circulating in human in 2007 and the North American H1N1 viruses emerging in 2009. In some cases, the differences are dramatic. For example, 10 of the 20 amino acids included in the B cell/antibody epitope at position 207-226 are different between the previously circulating A/human/2007(H1N1) and the emerging North American A influenza (H1N1) strains. In total, 21 of the 78 amino acids (27%) included in these experimentally verified B cell/antibody epitopes for the hemagglutinin (HA) protein differ between the previously circulating A/human/2007(H1N1) and the emerging North American A influenza (H1N1) strains. Interestingly, those epitopes that are the most different between the previously circulating A/human/2007(H1N1) and the emerging North American A influenza (H1N1) strains are located on the exposed surface of the HA protein based on the determined 3D protein structure (1RU7 and 1HGE). These dramatic differences in the sequences of the regions of the influenza virus that are typically targeted by the immune system likely explain the rapid emergence of this potentially pandemic strain in the human population. ←collapse

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1918 H1N1 is not considered an avian virus...

 

1918

A/South Carolina/1/18 (H1N1)

 


Domain Children

http://www.biohealthbase.org/GSearch/influenza_sequence_quick_search.do


1HGJ A (23801)
1HGJ C (23802)
1HGJ E (23803)

1930 swine H1

 

1RUZ H (97889)
1RUZ J (97891)
1RUZ L (97893)

1918 human H1

....................................................
 
 
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H1N1 (swine flu)


Influenza A

viruses can infect swine, equids, dogs, and other mammalian

species, including humans, however, only birds have been

found to host all of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase

combinations. The two subtypes which are most important

causes of human influenza are A(H3N2) and A(H1N1), of

which the former is currently associated with the greatest

mortality.

 

source-
The human influenza due to a novel subtype H1N1

ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/ak061e/ak061e00.pdf
.....................................................................................................................


From: Salient points in the history of swine influenza (adapted from Done and Brown, 1999), from Swine influenza: a zoonosis, Paul Heinen

 

History of swine influenza (In Humans)
...........................................................

 

1918
Swine influenza H1N1 described in north central USA. Hungery, and China.
May have been cause of human pandemic [19], which resulted in 20-40 million
human deaths.


1930
Shope isolated influenza virus from pigs [33], The prototype classic swine
influenza H1N1 strain (A/swinw/Iowa/30) transmitted experimentally to pigs.


1941
Recognized in Europe and disappeared.


1970
Transmission of human H3N2 virus to pigs.  Avian- like H3N2 in pigs in Asia.


1976
Classical H1N1 reappears in European pigs.


1979
Introduction of whole H1N1 virus from birds to pigs. Antigenically distinguishable from classical strains. Still circulating today (2002).


1984
Reassortment between human H3N2 and avian H1N1 in swine resulting in reassortant H3N2 virus with avian
internal gene segments [5]. H3N2 strains first associated with respiratory epizootics. Still circulating today (2002).


1986
Classical H1N1 reappears in UK, similar to classical H1N1 in continental Europe.


1987
Reassortant H3N2 associated with respiratory epizootics in UK. Related to A/Port Chalmers/73 (H3N2).


1989
Avian like swine H1N1 is dominant and widespread in Europe.


1992-1993
Avian like H1N1 strains widespread in UK.


1993
Infection of children with reassortant H3N2 virus from pigs and isolation of avian like swine H1N1 virus from a
pneumonia patient in the Netherlands.


1994
H1N2 first isolated in pigs in UK, and later also in Belgium. Human avian reassortant virus [3, 37].


1992-1998
H3N1 (H3 human, N1 swine) and H1N7 (H1 human, N7 equine) also occurred in swine in the UK but failed to spread.


1998
H9N2 in pigs and humans in Asia [17]. Apparently an avian virus that has adapted to pigs.


1998
For the first time, H3N2 viruses cause severe disease in N. America. Viruses are triple (avian human classical swine) reassortants, distinct from earlier strains and European strains. H1N2 identical to H3N2, but with H1HA from classical swine H1N1, also isolated.


1999
Single case of isolation of avian H4N6 from pigs with pneumonia in Canada.


2002
Current situation in Europe: avian like H1N1, and reassortant human like H3N2 and H1N2. In North America: classical swine H1N1, triple reassortant H3N2.

............................................
 
 
 
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If you become ill and experience any of the following warning signs, seek emergency medical care.

In children emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include:

  • Fast breathing or trouble breathing
  • Bluish or gray skin color
  • Not drinking enough fluids
  • Severe or persistent vomiting
  • Not waking up or not interacting
  • Being so irritable that the child does not want to be held
  • Flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough

In adults, emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include:

  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen
  • Sudden dizziness
  • Confusion
  • Severe or persistent vomiting
  • Flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough
One of the Doctors mentioned this... for the 1918 flu.... he said it was imperitive to stay flat in bed  and not get up, because some did...thinking they were better and it came back and .... not good.    So if you are ill just don't try to bounce back quickly...although this was not a finding in the first wave. .... but, later.
............................................................................
pandemicflu.gov
 
I know I keep putting up these warning signs.... hoping if needed...it will be remembered.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote noflu4u Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 15 2009 at 8:47pm
it's like multiplication tables. Wash rinse repeat. Repetition is old school learning.

Hey teach   
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                                 I Have To Ask This Question.....
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.
 
                                                  Why Do You Want Tamiflu?
 
 
 
 
 

Neuropsychiatric Events

........................................................................

Influenza can be associated with a variety of neurologic and behavioral symptoms which can include events such as hallucinations, delirium, and abnormal behavior, in some cases resulting in fatal outcomes. These events may occur in the setting of encephalitis or encephalopathy but can occur without obvious severe disease.

There have been postmarketing reports (mostly from Japan) of delirium and abnormal behavior leading to injury, and in some cases resulting in fatal outcomes, in patients with influenza who were receiving TAMIFLU.

 
Because these events were reported voluntarily during clinical practice, estimates of frequency cannot be made but they appear to be uncommon based on TAMIFLU usage data. These events were reported primarily among pediatric patients and often had an abrupt onset and rapid resolution. The contribution of TAMIFLU to these events has not been established. Patients with influenza should be closely monitored for signs of abnormal behavior. If neuropsychiatric symptoms occur, the risks and benefits of continuing treatment should be evaluated for each patient.
 
 
 
SOURCE
.................
 
 
 
I bought
..................
 
 
 
Boiron

Oscillococcinum 12 Dose Bonus Pack

..............................................................................................

 
 
 
 
.....

 
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              nasty little details we might (but CDC doesn't) overlook...
 
 
No wonder it spreads so fast =
 
Pigs begin excreting the virus within 24 hours after infection, and may shed the virus for 7 to 10 days. A carrier state can exist for up to 3 months.
 
is this giving us a clue?
......................................
 
 
 
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.
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Hoping not to rock the world further...  (gotta be informed right?)
 
 
From October 2004 to February 2005, approximately 3,700 test kits of the 1957 H2N2 virus were accidentally spread around the world from the College of American Pathologists (CAP). CAP assists laboratories in accuracy by providing unidentified samples of viruses; private contractor Meridian Bioscience in Cincinnati, U.S., chose the 1957 strand instead of one of the less deadly avian influenza virus subtypes.
 
"CAP spokesman Dr. Jared Schwartz said Meridian knew what the virus was but believed it was safe. In selecting it, the company had determined that the virus was classified as a biosafety level 2 (BSL-2) agent, which meant it could legally be used in the kits. [...] Before the problem came to light, the CDC had made a recommendation that the H2N2 virus be reclassified as a BSL-3 agent, Gerberding said. She promised to speed up the reclassification.
 
The CDC determines the classifications in collaboration with the National Institutes of Health. In BSL-3 labs, agents are handled with equipment designed to prevent any airborne contamination and resulting respiratory exposure."[10] The 1957 H2N2 virus is considered deadly and the U.S. government called for the vials containing the strain to be destroyed.
 
"CDC officials reported on 21 April that 99% of the samples had already been destroyed. News reports on 25 April said the last samples outside the United States had been destroyed at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon, after they were found at the Beirut airport. Earlier reports said H2N2 samples were sent to 3,747 labs under CAP auspices and to about another 2,700 labs certified by other organizations. All but about 75 labs that received the CAP samples were in the United States."[11]
 
"In the United States, there is no government regulation over the 1957 flu strain. In fact, federal officials at the CDC do not even know how many U.S. laboratories keep this deadly strain in their viral libraries."[12]
 
 
wikipedia
.............
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) is absolutely  worthless against seasonal influenza (sure hope the Novel Influenza type A doesn't recombinant with it).  If this happens, the only nerominidase inhibitor that would have any effective response would be relenza. Relenza's  (Zanamivir).  method of application is inhaled which gets more of the drug to the source and is more widely effective. (See chart below)  Still has the same side effects but thats the horse I'd bet on.

Unfortunately, we have stockpiled much more Tamiflu than Relenza so don't expect that any would be available.

The best thing you can do if you feel that you are getting the flu is to keep yourself hydrated. Dehydration + flu = a killer.  Vomiting and diarrhea will dehydrate a person very quickly.  Make sure you are drinking 8 glasses of water a day, this won't prevent the flu but you will fair much better if you do come down with it.

Isolates tested (n) Resistant Viruses,
Number (%)
Isolates tested (n) Resistant Viruses, Number (%)


Oseltamivir Zanamivir
Adamantanes
Seasonal Influenza A (H1N1) 865 860 (99.4%) 0 (0) 876 4 (0.5%)
Influenza A (H3N2) 134 0 (0) 0 (0) 145 145 (100%)
Influenza B 424 0 (0) 0 (0) N/A* N/A*
Novel Influenza A (H1N1) 101 0 (0) 0 (0) 96 96 (100%)
        *The adamantanes (amantadine and rimantadine) are not effective against influenza B viruses.
"Chance favors the prepared mind."
Louis Pasteur

-- Louis Pasteur
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dijoy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2009 at 2:20pm
we would never buy fruit from a market and eat it in my youth. It always had to be washed first so maybe we should get more fussy about that as well if the germs are going to come from animals again
Diane
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good advice... always wash fruits and veggies before eating.  People handle them in the stores...and this H1N1 can be spread by "soiled hands"
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http://pds.lib.harvard.edu/pds/viewtext/6692202?op=t&n=2&s=4

 

1918
............


recognition is easy
where there is a group of cases. In contrast to the outbreaks of ordinary
coughs and colds, which usually occur in the cold months, epidemics
of influenza may occur at any season of the year, thus the
present epidemic raged most intensely in Europe in May, June, and
July

Moreover, in the case of ordinary colds, the general symptoms
(fever pain, depression) are by no means as severe or as sudden in
their onset as they are in influenza. Finally, ordinary colds do not
spread through the community so rapidly or so extensively as does
influenza. 


In most cases a person taken sick with influenza feels sick rather
suddenly. He feels weak, has pains in the eyes, ears, head or back,
and may be sore all over. Many patients feel dizzy, some vomit.
Moist of the patients complain of feeling chilly, and with this comes
a fever in which the temperature rises to 100 to 104. In most cases
the pulse remains relatively slow.

In appearance one is struck by the fact that the patient looks sick.
His eyes and the inner side of his eyelids may be slightly " blood-
shot," or " congested," as the doctors say. There may be running
from the nose, or there may be some cough. These signs of a cold
may not be marked; nevertheless the patient looks and feels very
A sick.

In addition to the appearance and the symptoms as already described,
examination of the patient's blood may aid the physician in
recognizing " Spanish influenza," for it has been found that in this
disease the number of white corpuscles shows little or no increase
.......................................................................................................................

 

 


Study: First flu wave in 1918 was vaccine for some
.........................................................................................................................

Robert Roos * News Editor


Oct 2, 2008 (CIDRAP News)

In the influenza pandemic of 1918, those who got sick in the first wave of illness were up to 94% less likely to fall ill when the second and much more severe wave struck, according to a new analysis of historical data.

The authors, led by historian John M. Barry, sifted data mostly from US Army camps, along with some from the British navy and British cities, to conclude that infection in the first wave acted like a vaccine, conferring immunity that protected people when the second wave arrived. Barry wrote the 2004 book The Great Influenza, a chronicle of the pandemic.

Their analysis "strongly points to cross-protection between outbreaks of respiratory illness during spring and early summer of 1918 and the influenza pandemic wave in the fall of 1918. The cross-protection effect was estimated to range from 35% to 94% for clinical illness and from 56% to 89% for mortality," says the report, published online by the Journal of Infectious Diseases.

The authors say their findings suggest that when novel flu viruses emerge and initially cause a mild wave of illness, public health authorities should think twice before taking aggressive steps to limit exposure, since people infected with the virus might benefit later on if the virus grows more virulent and triggers another wave of cases.

Besides Barry, the authors are Cecile Viboud of the Fogarty International Center in Bethesda, Md., and Lone Simonsen of George Washington University in Washington, DC.

 

The pandemic of 1918-19 occurred in three waves: a mild one in the spring or summer of 1918 (depending on location), a much more severe one in the fall, and a less severe one in the winter and spring of 1919, the authors note. The first wave began in March 1918 in the US Army and spread quickly through training camps and on to some civilian communities, and then faded by June. This initial wave came later in Europe, peaking in June and July, the report notes.


Please read entire article here-
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/oct0208waves-jw.html
....................................................................................................................................................

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Single vaccine likely effective on flu

By Karen Kaplan
Los Angeles Times
Updated: 05/22/2009 11:35:12 PM CDT

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A new analysis of more than 50 strains of the H1N1 influenza virus at the center of the global outbreak concludes they are closely related and can be fought with a single vaccine.

"We see much less variation among these new H1N1 viruses than we do for typical seasonal influenza viruses," said Dr. Nancy Cox, the senior author of a study released Friday by the journal Science. That will make the job of creating a pandemic flu vaccine "much, much easier," she said.

Cox, who heads the influenza division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and colleagues from the U.S., Mexico and England also found that exposure to the normal seasonal flu strains provides little protection against the novel H1N1 that was identified in April.

Those findings could boost the likelihood that the U.S. will move forward with an H1N1 vaccine that would be offered separately from the seasonal flu vaccine.

The CDC is testing two potential seed stock candidates for an H1N1 vaccine to see whether they provoke an effective immune response.

The candidates combine portions of the H1N1 strain with other flu viruses that are known to grow efficiently in eggs, a key step in the vaccine-making process, Dr. Anne Schuchat, interim deputy director for the CDC's Science and Public Health Program, said Friday.

The agency expects to deliver a suitable seed stock to vaccine manufacturers by the end of the month, Schuchat said.

In a related development, the

Department of Health and Human Services announced Friday that it has set aside approximately $1 billion for development of an H1N1 vaccine. Some of the money will fund clinical trials of a vaccine over the summer, and some will be used to ramp up production of key vaccine ingredients in case they are needed, Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said.
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Those findings could boost the likelihood that the U.S. will move forward with an H1N1 vaccine that would be offered separately from the seasonal flu vaccine.
 
.................................................................................

I'm wondering if people will take 2 vaccines...... or want their children to have them?

.....................
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 1NiceGuy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 23 2009 at 1:50am
I would try to avoid vaccines at most any cost. In 1976, Pres Ford innoculated 40 mil Americans from the flu. More casualties were caused by the vaccine than from illness it was to protect them from.  Earlier this Year Baxter Alexander "accidentally" sent out live H5N1 and a live seasonal strain (H3N9?) virus in flu vaccine to 18 countries. It was discovered by a contractor that tested the vaccine on ferrets, killed em.  The possible recombinics of this combination could have been disastrous (no pun intended).   

Vaccine Ingredients -
Formaldehyde, Aspartame,
Mercury, Etc


 
This following list of common vaccines and their ingredients should shock anyone.
 
The numbers of microbes, antibiotics, chemicals, heavy metals and animal byproducts is staggering. Would you knowingly inject these materials into your children?
 
Acel-Immune DTaP - Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Wyeth-Ayerst 800.934.5556
* diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis adsorbed, formaldehyde, aluminum hydroxide, aluminum phosphate, thimerosal, and polysorbate 80 (Tween-80) gelatin Act HIB
 
Haemophilus - Influenza B Connaught Laboratories 800.822.2463
* Haemophilus influenza Type B, polyribosylribitol phosphate ammonium sulfate, formalin, and sucrose
 
Attenuvax - Measles Merck & Co., Inc. 800-672-6372
* measles live virus neomycin sorbitol hydrolized gelatin, chick embryo
 
Biavax - Rubella Merck & Co., Inc. 800-672-6372
* rubella live virus neomycin sorbitol hydrolized gelatin, human diploid cells from aborted fetal tissue
 
BioThrax - Anthrax Adsorbed BioPort Corporation 517.327.1500
* nonencapsulated strain of Bacillus anthracis aluminum hydroxide, benzethonium chloride, and formaldehyde
 
DPT - Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis GlaxoSmithKline 800.366.8900 x5231
* diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis adsorbed, formaldehyde, aluminum phosphate, ammonium sulfate, and thimerosal, washed sheep RBCs
 
Dryvax - Smallpox (not licensed d/t expiration) Wyeth-Ayerst 800.934.5556
* live vaccinia virus, with "some microbial contaminants," according to the Working Group on Civilian Biodefense polymyxcin B sulfate, streptomycin sulfate, chlortetracycline hydrochloride, and neomycin sulfate glycerin, and phenol -a compound obtained by distillation of coal tar vesicle fluid from calf skins Engerix-B
 
Recombinant Hepatitis B GlaxoSmithKline 800.366.8900 x5231
* genetic sequence of the hepatitis B virus that codes for the surface antigen (HbSAg), cloned into GMO yeast, aluminum hydroxide, and thimerosal
 
Fluvirin Medeva Pharmaceuticals 888.MEDEVA 716.274.5300
* influenza virus, neomycin, polymyxin, beta-propiolactone, chick embryonic fluid
 
FluShield Wyeth-Ayerst 800.934.5556
* trivalent influenza virus, types A&B gentamicin sulphate formadehyde, thimerosal, and polysorbate 80 (Tween-80) chick embryonic fluid
 
Havrix - Hepatitis A GlaxoSmithKline 800.366.8900 x5231
* hepatitis A virus, formalin, aluminum hydroxide, 2-phenoxyethanol, and polysorbate 20 residual MRC5 proteins -human diploid cells from aborted fetal tissue
 
HiB Titer - Haemophilus Influenza B Wyeth-Ayerst 800.934.5556
* haemophilus influenza B, polyribosylribitol phosphate, yeast, ammonium sulfate, thimerosal, and chemically defined yeast-based medium
 
Imovax Connaught Laboratories 800.822.2463
* rabies virus adsorbed, neomycin sulfate, phenol, red indicator human albumin, human diploid cells from aborted fetal tissue
 
IPOL Connaught Laboratories 800.822.2463
* 3 types of polio viruses neomycin, streptomycin, and polymyxin B formaldehyde, and 2-phenoxyethenol continuous line of monkey kidney cells
 
JE-VAX - Japanese Ancephalitis Aventis Pasteur USA 800.VACCINE
* Nakayama-NIH strain of Japanese encephalitis virus, inactivated formaldehyde, polysorbate 80 (Tween-80), and thimerosal mouse serum proteins, and gelatin
 
LYMErix - Lyme GlaxoSmithKline 888-825-5249
* recombinant protein (OspA) from the outer surface of the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi kanamycin aluminum hydroxide, 2-phenoxyethenol, phosphate buffered saline
 
MMR - Measles-Mumps-Rubella Merck & Co., Inc. 800.672.6372
* measles, mumps, rubella live virus, neomycin sorbitol, hydrolized gelatin, chick embryonic fluid, and human diploid cells from aborted fetal tissue
 
M-R-Vax - Measles-Rubella Merck & Co., Inc. 800.672.6372
* measles, rubella live virus neomycin sorbitol hydrolized gelatin, chick embryonic fluid, and human diploid cells from aborted fetal tissue
 
Menomune - Meningococcal Connaught Laboratories 800.822.2463
* freeze-dried polysaccharide antigens from Neisseria meningitidis bacteria, thimerosal, and lactose
 
Meruvax I - Mumps Merck & Co., Inc. 800.672.6372
* mumps live virus neomycin sorbitol hydrolized gelatin
 
NYVAC - (new smallpox batch, not licensed) Aventis Pasteur USA 800.VACCINE
* highly-attenuated vaccinia virus, polymyxcin B, sulfate, streptomycin sulfate, chlortetracycline hydrochloride, and neomycin sulfate glycerin, and phenol -a compound obtained by distillation of coal tar vesicle fluid from calf skins
 
Orimune - Oral Polio Wyeth-Ayerst 800.934.5556
* 3 types of polio viruses, attenuated neomycin, streptomycin sorbitol monkey kidney cells and calf serum
 
Pneumovax - Streptococcus Pneumoniae Merck & Co., Inc. 800.672.6372
* capsular polysaccharides from polyvalent (23 types), pneumococcal bacteria, phenol,
 
Prevnar Pneumococcal - 7-Valent Conjugate Vaccine Wyeth Lederle 800.934.5556
* saccharides from capsular Streptococcus pneumoniae antigens (7 serotypes) individually conjugated to diphtheria CRM 197 protein aluminum phosphate, ammonium sulfate, soy protein, yeast
 
RabAvert - Rabies Chiron Behring GmbH & Company 510.655.8729
* fixed-virus strain, Flury LEP neomycin, chlortetracycline, and amphotericin B, potassium glutamate, and sucrose human albumin, bovine gelatin and serum "from source countries known to be free of bovine spongioform encephalopathy," and chicken protein
 
Rabies Vaccine Adsorbed GlaxoSmithKline 800.366.8900 x5231
*rabies virus adsorbed, beta-propiolactone, aluminum phosphate, thimerosal, and phenol, red rhesus monkey fetal lung cells
 
Recombivax - Recombinant Hepatitis B Merck & Co., Inc. 800.672.6372
* genetic sequence of the hepatitis B virus that codes for the surface antigen (HbSAg), cloned into GMO yeast, aluminum hydroxide, and thimerosal
 
RotaShield - Oral Tetravalent Rotavirus (recalled) Wyeth-Ayerst 800.934.5556
* 1 rhesus monkey rotavirus, 3 rhesus-human reassortant live viruses neomycin sulfate, amphotericin B potassium monophosphate, potassium diphosphate, sucrose, and monosodium glutamate (MSG) rhesus monkey fetal diploid cells, and bovine fetal serum smallpox (not licensed due to expiration)
 
40-yr old stuff "found" in Swiftwater, PA freezer Aventis Pasteur USA 800.VACCINE
* live vaccinia virus, with "some microbial contaminants," according to the Working Group on Civilian Biodefense polymyxcin B sulfate, streptomycin sulfate, chlortetracycline hydrochloride, and neomycin sulfate glycerin, and phenol -a compound obtained by distillation of coal tar vesicle fluid from calf skins
 
Smallpox (new, not licensed) Acambis, Inc. 617.494.1339 in partnership with Baxter BioScience
* highly-attenuated vaccinia virus, polymyxcin B sulfate, streptomycin sulfate, chlortetracycline hydrochloride, and neomycin sulfate glycerin, and phenol -a compound obtained by distillation of coal tar vesicle fluid from calf skins
 
TheraCys BCG (intravesicle -not licensed in US for tuberculosis) Aventis Pasteur USA 800.VACCINE
* live attenuated strain of Mycobacterium bovis monosodium glutamate (MSG), and polysorbate 80 (Tween-80)
 
Tripedia - Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Aventis Pasteur USA 800.VACCINE
*Corynebacterium diphtheriae and Clostridium tetani toxoids and acellular Bordetella pertussis adsorbed aluminum potassium sulfate, formaldehyde, thimerosal, and polysorbate 80 (Tween-80) gelatin, bovine extract
 
US-sourced Typhim Vi - Typhoid Aventis Pasteur USA SA 800.VACCINE
* cell surface Vi polysaccharide from Salmonella typhi Ty2 strain, aspartame, phenol, and polydimethylsiloxane (silicone)
 
Varivax - Chickenpox Merck & Co., Inc. 800.672.6372
* varicella live virus neomycin phosphate, sucrose, and monosodium glutamate (MSG) processed gelatin, fetal bovine serum, guinea pig embryo cells, albumin from human blood, and human diploid cells from aborted fetal tissue
 
YF-VAX - Yellow Fever Aventis Pasteur USA 800.VACCINE
* 17D strain of yellow fever virus sorbitol chick embryo, and gelatin
"Chance favors the prepared mind."
Louis Pasteur

-- Louis Pasteur
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one more time...
 
 

H1N1 (swine flu)


Influenza A

viruses can infect swine, equids, dogs, and other mammalian

species, including humans, however, only birds have been

found to host all of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase

combinations. The two subtypes which are most important

causes of human influenza are A(H3N2) and A(H1N1), of

which the former is currently associated with the greatest

mortality.

 

source-
The human influenza due to a novel subtype H1N1

ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/ak061e/ak061e00.pdf
.....................................................................................................................


From: Salient points in the history of swine influenza (adapted from Done and Brown, 1999), from Swine influenza: a zoonosis, Paul Heinen

 

History of swine influenza (In Humans)
...........................................................

 

1918
Swine influenza H1N1 described in north central USA. Hungery, and China.
May have been cause of human pandemic [19], which resulted in 20-40 million
human deaths.


1930
Shope isolated influenza virus from pigs [33], The prototype classic swine
influenza H1N1 strain (A/swinw/Iowa/30) transmitted experimentally to pigs.


1941
Recognized in Europe and disappeared.


1970
Transmission of human H3N2 virus to pigs.  Avian- like H3N2 in pigs in Asia.


1976
Classical H1N1 reappears in European pigs.


1979
Introduction of whole H1N1 virus from birds to pigs. Antigenically distinguishable from classical strains. Still circulating today (2002).


1984
Reassortment between human H3N2 and avian H1N1 in swine resulting in reassortant H3N2 virus with avian
internal gene segments [5]. H3N2 strains first associated with respiratory epizootics. Still circulating today (2002).


1986
Classical H1N1 reappears in UK, similar to classical H1N1 in continental Europe.


1987
Reassortant H3N2 associated with respiratory epizootics in UK. Related to A/Port Chalmers/73 (H3N2).


1989
Avian like swine H1N1 is dominant and widespread in Europe.


1992-1993
Avian like H1N1 strains widespread in UK.


1993
Infection of children with reassortant H3N2 virus from pigs and isolation of avian like swine H1N1 virus from a
pneumonia patient in the Netherlands.


1994
H1N2 first isolated in pigs in UK, and later also in Belgium. Human avian reassortant virus [3, 37].


1992-1998
H3N1 (H3 human, N1 swine) and H1N7 (H1 human, N7 equine) also occurred in swine in the UK but failed to spread.


1998
H9N2 in pigs and humans in Asia [17]. Apparently an avian virus that has adapted to pigs.


1998
For the first time, H3N2 viruses cause severe disease in N. America. Viruses are triple (avian human classical swine) reassortants, distinct from earlier strains and European strains. H1N2 identical to H3N2, but with H1HA from classical swine H1N1, also isolated.


1999
Single case of isolation of avian H4N6 from pigs with pneumonia in Canada.


2002
Current situation in Europe: avian like H1N1, and reassortant human like H3N2 and H1N2. In North America: classical swine H1N1, triple reassortant H3N2.

............................................
 

CDC/Govt. Thoughts/Laws Updates, Swine Flu/ S-OIV

by Mary008
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