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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Australia-Thurs 5/29 reports- Swine Flu Spike!

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    Posted: May 26 2009 at 8:15am
"We are struggling down there."

3000 cases in quarantine does not sound like alarmist it sounds like a real problem.. check out the 2nd to last post with the link http://tinyurl.com/klmyxk - something has happend

Forward in thread is one report that panic is not quite as bad and this may be a more tabloid article. Will continue to update thread though.  M.C.

Hospitals inundated as swine flu panic spreads


(I realize there is a thread about the cruise ship.. this is about a lot more than the cruise ship)

http://www.theage.com.au/national/hospitals-inundated-as-swine-flu-panic-spreads-20090525-bkta.html

Another school has closed, thousands of children are being told to stay home. It has hit Victoria the worst. You can use the link to see the video.

Key line of the article which I also did not post as a heading was

The spread of the virus has caused widespread panic, with hospitals and medical centres reporting rising demand for tests.


businesses that are not providing essential services should start planning how they could operate at a reduced level or even close down temporarily if need be.

As the flu continued to spread, hospitals and medical centres in the northern suburbs reported high demand from parents wanting their children to be tested for the H1N1 virus, including some without any flu-like symptoms.

comment: so there's your fine line. It probably is the reason they have basically stopped testing in the U.S. except for the gravely ill.

"I think the criteria for screening from the Department of Human Services is too tight … viruses don't wait to be told who to infect," she said.

For the up-to-date information call the influenza hotline on 180 2007 or nurse-on-call on 1300 60 60 24.

comment: Besides the cruise ship-

t emerged last night that Fremantle AFL players and officials were on a flight from Melbourne to Perth with a man who has since been diagnosed as the first case of swine flu in Western Australia.

Fremantle chief executive said 40 Dockers' players and staff who had been on the flight had been advised what course of action to take should they show symptoms.

comment: and so that brings me to what has been stated clearly by other users. Until someone famous dies- this will not be taken seriously- and definitely declared the Pandemic it is becoming to be. How many countries and how many people have to get it- before someone smells the coffee?

A whole lot I guess.

Medclinician


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 26 2009 at 8:54am
Mecclinian,what is the body count in Austrilia? Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rickster58 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 26 2009 at 12:41pm
no deaths .... yet Johnray1
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Is it a case of needing to sell newspapers?   The "panic" seems out of place... July/August is more likely their winter?  A clue is...How many papers are reporting this...panic.
 
I'll have a look.   Looks like only one or two as the headline is the same.
 
Dates... April 26, April 27, May 1st...   check dates.
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Below is a copy of a letter sent yesterday to all Australian GP's. .......

MDP 84 GPO Box 9848 Canberra ACT 2601

CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER

Dear Colleague,

RE: H1N1 Influenza 09 (Human Swine Influenza)

I am writing to update you on the H1N1 Influenza 09 situation within Australia. As you are

aware, in April a new strain of influenza was identified in North America. In response,

Australia activated the Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza 2008

(AHMPPI 2008). We now have community acquired cases in Australia, and on 22 May

2009, moved to the CONTAIN phase of our response. The aim of this phase is to contain the

spread of the virus in our communities. The current border measures will remain in place. We

have also updated the case definition which will enhance our capacity to detect community

acquired cases and ask you to beware of travellers especially those from Japan and Panama,

as well as those from USA, Canada and Mexico as advised previously.

As we are entering winter with increased transmission of influenza, I am writing to share with

you the messages we are conveying. Influenza is potentially a serious illness. We are unlikely

to have a specific H1N1 Influenza 09 vaccine in sufficient quantities this winter, and the

seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine is not expected to provide any protection.

Overseas experience with this virus is that most cases have a mild illness, with those at risk of

poor outcomes and death being pregnant women, some children and young adults, those with

prior respiratory illness, asthma, diabetes and the grossly obese. I would urge you to consider

the possibility of influenza complications in your patients this season. All patients with acute

febrile respiratory infections should be tested for influenza.

At present the new H1N1 Influenza 09 strain is sensitive to the neuraminidase inhibitors

(Tamiflu and Relenza). Early treatment (within 48 hours of symptom onset), of cases is

important, particularly for those at high risk of a poor outcome.

I strongly encourage you to remind any unwell patients that they must: remain away from

work or school; practice good hand hygiene and cough and sneeze etiquette; to wear a mask

if within one metre of others; remain well hydrated and take antipyretics. Children less than

12 years who have influenza should not be given aspirin because of the risk of Reye’s

syndrome.

Both you and your staff should continue to maintain good infection control standards. If a

patient with a travel history to an affected area or history of contact with a confirmed case

presents with an influenza-like illness they should immediately be given a surgical mask and

moved into a separate room. Remain at least one metre from them, and use personal

protective equipment (PPE) if you must be closer than a meter. With all other patients who

have acute respiratory illness (but no travel history) it is advisable to wear a mask when

taking a nose and throat swab. If you have specific concerns about a particular patient I

would encourage you to speak to your local public health unit or Infectious Diseases

Physician.

To assist you further in management of suspected cases in your practice, I am attaching a

summary sheet of information which you may find useful as a quick guide. We will place

this summary sheet on the health professionals’ page of the commonwealth health

emergency website (http://www.healthemergency.gov.au) where we can keep it up to date.

I am attaching information on these other commonwealth, state and territory and international

resources as well.

I will continue to keep you advised as the situation evolves.

Kind regards

Professor Jim Bishop AO

MD MMed MBBS FRACP FRCPA

24 May 2009

Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing

H1N1 Influenza 09 (Human Swine influenza) – Summary Sheet for General

Practitioners

Current as of 24 May 2009

If a patient presents with an acute febrile respiratory illness*

*(temperature 38 degrees Celsius or good history of fever, AND

recent onset of 1 of rhinorrhoea / nasal congestion / sore throat / cough)

TEST FOR INFLUENZA A, even if there is NO travel history. It is advisable to wear a

mask whilst taking a nose and throat swab.

Community acquired transmission is occurring in Australia and this approach will detect

these cases. The Public Health Unit will advise you if any of these patients test positive

and further measures needed.

CURRENT DEFINITIONS

A suspected case of H1N1 Influenza 09 (human swine influenza) virus infection is defined as a

person with an acute respiratory illness with onset:

within 7 days of close contact with a person who is either a confirmed case of H1N1 Influenza

09 (human swine influenza) virus infection or a suspected case with an influenza A positive

test result OR

within 7 days of travel, especially to Mexico, USA, Canada, Japan or Panama (countries will

be updated regularly).

If the patient is positive on a test for influenza A, and H1N1 influenza 09 cannot be excluded yet, they

are a suspected case with an influenza A positive test result.

A confirmed case of H1N1 Influenza 09 (human swine influenza) virus is a person with a laboratory

confirmed H1N1 Influenza 09 (human swine influenza) virus infection by one or more of the following

tests:

viral sequencing

human swine influenza (H1N1) specific-PCR

isolation of human swine influenza A (H1N1) virus

If your patient is a suspected case of H1N1 Influenza 09, urgent assessment is

required.

The situation is particularly urgent if the patient is a child attending school or resides

in an institution such as a residential care facility because of the risk of transmission

in these settings.

WHAT TO DO NEXT

1. Contact your local Public Health Unit promptly (see below for contact details)

All persons meeting the definition for a suspected case must be notified to the local Public Health

Unit.

The Public Health Unit will provide further advice such as the need for isolation of the case,

tracing and subsequent management of contacts, laboratory testing arrangements, antiviral

usage, and infection control measures. The information provided below is a brief outline of the

important aspects of managing potential cases in your rooms.

2. Ensure infection control measures are implemented

Some basic principles include:

Isolating the patient from others (at least 1 metre), including minimising time spent in your

waiting room.

Instructing the patient to use respiratory/hand hygiene and cough etiquette, and to wear a

surgical mask when others are present.

Ensuring health care workers who come into contact with the patient take basic infection

control precautions such as hand-washing and wear appropriate personal protective

equipment.

Further information will be provided by your local Public Health Unit.

3. Take a specimen for lab testing to confirm presence or absence of H1N1

Influenza 09

Personal protective equipment must be worn.

Suspected cases should be tested for respiratory viruses using nose and throat swabs provided

this can be done within 7 days of onset. Nasopharyngeal aspirates are not recommended unless

the specimen can be collected safely in a controlled clinical setting. Swabs from suspected cases

should be sent directly to the State/Territory reference laboratory for urgent testing for respiratory

viruses.

Blood, rather than swabs, should be collected for future serologic testing for suspect cases where

presentation is more than 7 days after onset, and may also be collected at the same time as

swabs are collected in other cases, depending on circumstances.

Specimen collection and transport arrangements should be discussed with your local Public

Health Unit.

4. Treatment of H1N1 Influenza 09 with oseltamivir (Tamiflu) or zanamivir

(Relenza)

Antiviral treatment should be given to ‘Suspected’, ‘Suspected Influenza A-positive’ and

‘Confirmed’ cases within 48 hours of illness onset. Antiviral treatment may be commenced more

than 48 hours after onset in rare circumstances where clinically indicated. Public Health Unit staff

will assist with identification of cases for treatment, appropriate medication and dosage regimes

and where to access antivirals.

5. Further management and follow-up

Following the initial assessment, ‘Suspected’, ‘Suspected Influenza A-positive’ and ‘Confirmed’

cases who do not need hospitalisation must be isolated at home until the diagnosis is excluded or

the infectious period is over. Your local Public Health Unit will contact the patient regularly and

provide them with further information, such as infection control advice. They will also arrange for

tracing of the patient’s contacts and their subsequent management.

6. Other clinical points to consider at the stage of initial management

Is the patient at increased risk of poor outcome or death? (pregnant women, some children

and young adults, those with prior respiratory illness, asthma, diabetes and the grossly

obese)

Are there indicators of severe illness (difficulty breathing; focal lung signs) suggesting the

need for hospitalisation?

Has symptomatic treatment been provided? (encourage appropriate hydration and analgesia)

H1N1 INFLUENZA 09 (HUMAN SWINE INFLUENZA) FACTS

Incubation period: maximum = 7 days (3 days would be more common)

Period of communicability: from 24 hours prior to the onset of symptoms until:

o adults 12-64 yrs = 7 days; adults >65 yrs = 14 days; children <12 yrs = 14 days (or until

resolution of fever, whichever is longer)

Means of virus transmission: most likely to be spread from person-to-person by inhalation of

infectious droplets produced while talking, coughing and sneezing; transmission may also occur

through direct and indirect (fomite) contact.

RESOURCES

Commonwealth Department of

Health and Ageing

http://www.healthemergency.gov.au

Royal Australian College of General

Practitioners

http://www.racgp.org.au/h1n1

USA Government – Centers for

Disease Control and Prevention

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/

Other

http://www.thelancet.com/H1N1-flu

http://h1n1.nejm.org/

PUBLIC HEALTH UNIT INFORMATION (contact phone numbers for doctors’ use

only)

NSW http://www.health.nsw.gov.au/publichealth/swine_flu.asp

Contact details for the 17 public health offices in NSW Area Health Service Areas can be found at:

www.health.nsw.gov.au/publichealth/Infectious/phus.asp

Victoria http://www.health.vic.gov.au/ideas/diseases/swine-influenza

and

http://www.health.vic.gov.au/pandemicinfluenza/general_practice.htm

1300 651 160 or

after hours

through the

paging service

1300 790 733

Queensland http://access.health.qld.gov.au/hid/InfectionsandParasites/ViralInfections/swine

Flu2009_fs.asp

and

http://www.health.qld.gov.au/swineflu/html/hc_resources.asp

13432584 or

13HEALTH

WA http://www.public.health.wa.gov.au/2/949/2/swine_flu.pm

and

http://www.public.health.wa.gov.au/3/952/3/human_swine_flu_health_providers

.pm

(08) 9388 4830 or

After hours:

(08) 9328 0553

SA http://www.flu.sa.gov.au/Swineflu.aspx

and

http://www.health.sa.gov.au/pandemicinfluenza/

(08) 8226 7177

NT http://www.health.nt.gov.au/Centre_for_Disease_Control/index.aspx and

http://www.health.nt.gov.au/Emergency_Management_and_Disaster_Arrange

ments/Pandemic/index.aspx

(08) 8922 8044

Tasmania http://www.pandemic.tas.gov.au/

and

http://www.pandemic.tas.gov.au/what_does_it_mean_to_you/health_sector

1800 358 362

ACT http://health.act.gov.au/c/health?a=da&did=10098808&pid=1240874209

and

http://www.health.act.gov.au/c/health?a=da&did=11044035&pid=1242181681

(02) 6205 2155

Supplementary Information regarding the following issues is available at

http://www.healthemergency.gov.au/internet/healthemergency/publishing.nsf/Content/healthprof#clini

cal

Measures to reduce the risk of infection in practice waiting rooms

What questions should the GP receptionist ask patients on the phone?

What should a GP do if patients call from home concerned re symptoms and over the phone

sound high risk? Who will do testing? If GPs are very busy in practice they do not necessarily

have the time to do many home visits. What is recommended?

Do GPs need a dedicated room at this stage to be used for isolation or separation of a possible

infected patient from others in the waiting room?

Who is a close contact of a suspected or confirmed case?

household members

close workplace contacts, including people sharing an office or cubicle area or whose work has

brought them into close physical proximity (sitting within one metre for at least 15 minutes) with

the case, but not people who share general office space

members of a case's class or child care group and their teacher / child care supervisor, where the

case is a child in the same class for 4 hours or more

others in close physical proximity (sitting within one metre for at least 15 minutes), but not other

people who share the classroom, where the case is a child in multiple classes in a day (such as in

a typical secondary school setting)

other contacts identified by a case, household members or workplace associates of the case, as

having been in close physical contact (hugging, kissing, sitting within one metre for at least 15

minutes).

passengers and crew travelling on an aircraft with a case as defined below:

1. passengers seated in the same row, and within two (2) rows in front of and behind the

case;

2. any passengers identified by the case who moved from elsewhere in the aircraft to spend

more than 15 minutes near a case;

3. airline staff (unless they did not service the section of the plane in which a case was

‘Confirmed’ seated).

For Protocols for follow-up of exposed staff, see:

http://www.healthemergency.gov.au/internet/healthemergency/publishing.nsf/Content/health

prof#clinical

“Questions and answers”

1. What is the availability of and distribution arrangements for masks for GP staff & patients?

Masks and other Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) are available through normal suppliers. They

are also part of the National Medical Stockpile (NMS). These will be made available on the advice of

the Australian Health Protection Committee (AHPC), based on the risk of exposure and availability of

supply. Supplies in both the NMS and in jurisdictions are limited.

2. What is the availability of prophylaxis for GP staff & doctors?

Supplies of both oseltamivir and zanamivir are available through community pharmacies. Neither drug

is on the PBS. Initially, advice should be sought from local Public Health Units on the indications and

availability of prophylaxis at a local level. The Department of Health and Ageing is regularly liaising

with drug manufacturers and suppliers to ensure regular supply of these medications.

3. What advice is available for GPs and staff about how to protect their families?

At this stage, protection of families of health care workers (HCW) is dependent on a risk assessment.

If a HCW has been exposed to H1N1 influenza 09 (and therefore regarded as a contact), depending

on the risk, they may be placed on an antiviral medication, which would confer protection against both

contracting the illness and infecting others. They may also be advised to quarantine themselves at

home. Apart from this, no other protection would be deemed necessary. General “social distancing”

measures are recommended, such as maintaining a minimum of 1 metre distance away from others

(including other members of a household), regular hand hygiene, avoiding touching the face, and

sleeping in a room of their own. PPE would not be indicated for a HCW who is regarded as a contact

or family members.

COMMENT: As you can see, they authotities here have no idea what they are dealing with. Their lame attempts at infection control are a big FAIL ..... look forward to seeing lots more action from downunder
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 26 2009 at 12:52pm
yep...tabloid type ... http://www.theage.com.au/
 
heck I'm in NY... called us an epicenter...   :/
 
 
 
 
 
 
Map%20showing%20affected%20areas%20of%20the%20country
     20+ Confirmed cases     5-19 Confirmed cases     1-4 Confirmed cases     Suspected cases only     None
Disease H1N1 Influenza 09 (Human Swine Influenza)
Virus strain H1N1
Deaths 0
Confirmed cases 51[1][2][3]
Suspected cases              132
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 26 2009 at 2:02pm
I've said from the beginning to expect a little panic.   I'm afraid that it will be unavoidable and it should be expected.  As long as hospitals prepare for the overflow, which they may not, things might get easier.    If our entire healthcare system is not overrun early on, I would truly be surprised.   Fun stuff ahead. 
 
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote macemesmum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 26 2009 at 2:53pm
I am in Western Australia and this is a bit tabloidy!! there is no panic here!! it is on the news but the average Joe couldnt care less.  both my daughters have the flu and we have taken them to the dr a number of times as they cant seem to get rid of it, we travelled to US in jan and had family from there visit us in feb and the kids have been sick since april but the dr looked at us like we were idiots and asked why they were off school?  we didnt mention swine flu as i dont think they have that just normal flu but the drs certainly arent testing peoplel didnt even ask if we been oversease wierd since hubby talking to them in american accent - as from usa!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 26 2009 at 4:49pm
Thank you macemesmum, we need more posts from you wonderful people in Australia. Many of us Americans admire your country and your people. You are a hearty stock.

Please keep us up to date as to what is really happening in your beautiful country of Australia because it will help us know how bad it will be for us during our flu season. Good Health and God Bless!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tenth_Door Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 26 2009 at 10:36pm
Originally posted by macemesmum macemesmum wrote:

I am in Western Australia and this is a bit tabloidy!! there is no panic here!!
 
Waiting to hear from victoria who lives in Perth, she is my dearest friend.  I knew all along, the above reply would confirm such, Thank You macemesmum. 
It Is What It Is
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ausgirl122 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 27 2009 at 12:03am
The main difference in Aus right now is that the media is definitely running with the story more, the govt may be worried but unfortunately the people aren't!  Being so close to Asia I worry about if this combining with the avian flu we could be in big trouble especially with all our illegal immigrants (who come via indonesia) landing on west coast thanks to Mr Rudds new weak policy on people smuggling!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 27 2009 at 9:30am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

I've said from the beginning to expect a little panic.   I'm afraid that it will be unavoidable and it should be expected.  As long as hospitals prepare for the overflow, which they may not, things might get easier.    If our entire healthcare system is not overrun early on, I would truly be surprised.   Fun stuff ahead. 
 
    


Yes, I am trying to put up some things on Australia and they are pretty intense down there. The real call on this will be how virulent it gets. If it pretty much stays a very low path - even Pandemic - it will pass as severe season.

I was tentatively diagnosed last night on the triage line here  as "low path flu" on my military medical chart. I am ill and with fever and stuff. But- it is so, pretty miserable- very miserable- but not life threatening. The cut off here for ER to give the antiviral, or "call doctor" is a 104 temp and serious coughing and difficulty breathing.

Triage, I might comment, for military and veterans, was pretty thorough and they a special sheet for "flu" and lots of questions. Basically it is ride it out at home unless you are seriously ill. They did not say don't come to ER, but just try to use judgment in how serious your problem is as they determined by their criteria.

They are not swamped here. I got a call back in about 15 minutes. They would rather triage by phone I think.. on flu stuff.

If they decide to even test for Swine Flu and not just treat it as flu (there are no Swine Flu cases confirmed officially in West Virginia) I would have to probably be in Intensive Care.

Point is if it is like what I am having, then when you first come down with it , you are going to be upset and think you are on the way out.The first night of serious symptoms is abysmal. But no temp spike high or nothing really dangerous yet.

People are still going to panic.

Unless it really starts tearing them up in Down Under- we should feel relatively safe so far.
We know this one spreads. It is gonna cover Australia. We need to see if it high path before we start getting to concerned. Prep anyway though. It could go bad.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Evergreen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 27 2009 at 10:05am
I also posted an article reported in the last hour about projections in Australia. Will get the article. D
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Australia's swine flu cases double overnight

Article posted May 27, 2009 - 08:44 PM
CANBERRA, Australia A government minister in Australia's most populous state placed herself in quarantine Wednesday over concerns she was infected with swine flu on a flight from Los Angeles, as the nation's confirmed cases of the virus more than doubled overnight.

The surge in Australia came as Singapore on Wednesday confirmed its first swine flu infection, a 22-year-old woman who reported symptoms after visiting New York. In the Philippines, tests confirmed four more cases of swine flu ¬ including a 1-year-old girl who returned from the U.S. and a 13-year-old boy who visited Hong Kong ¬ raising the country's total to six.

In Australia, Tourism Minister Jodi McKay flew home to Sydney on Sunday on a Qantas flight from Los Angeles on which six passengers had by Wednesday tested positive for swine flu.

Confirmed cases in Australia jumped from 25 Tuesday to 66 late Wednesday, with authorities warning the sharp rise is expected to continue.

McKay met with her New South Wales state Cabinet colleagues Tuesday before canceling all public appearances on Wednesday on news of her fellow passengers' illness and placing herself in voluntary isolation, her office said.

State Health Minister John Della Bosca, who attended the Cabinet meeting, said Wednesday he did not expect the government's leaders had been infected by the virus.

"The public health advice is that there is no need for ministers to isolate themselves," Della Bosca said.

"One of my colleagues has made a personal decision and obviously she speaks for herself in that matter," he said.

In Singapore, the only patient confirmed to have the virus said she developed a cough on her flight back to Singapore from New York earlier this week, the health ministry said in a statement. She was in stable condition at the country's Communicable Disease Center, it said.

South Korean health authorities confirmed two more cases of swine flu Wednesday, bringing the total to 29.

Test results showed that a South African man who has taught English in Seoul and a South Korean woman who returned home from the US last week had the virus, Health Ministry spokesman Oh Sung-il said.

Philippine Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said the four new cases there also included two people with no history of travel but who attended a wedding in the Philippines with two Taiwanese who were confirmed with swine flu after returning to Taiwan last week.

In Australia, federal Health Minister Nicola Roxon said infections were expected to soar over the next two days.

"The community does have to prepare itself for there to be a significant increase in the numbers of cases confirmed, particularly in the coming days," she said.

The world's swine flu death toll has topped 100 as two more New Yorkers died Tuesday. More than 12,000 people have been sickened. - AP

------------------------------------------------------------------------

All Rights Reserved. 2006 © GMA Network Inc.
235365 - Energy follows thought.   As you think, so you are.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Evergreen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 27 2009 at 10:06am
Here it is. D

Experts predict one in five people will be infected
Julia Medew, Bridie Smith and Nick Miller
May 28, 2009 - 12:19AM

SWINE flu is now expected to hit one in five Australians this winter, authorities said.

As the number of infected people around the country climbed to 66 cases last night, experts warned that for every person infected, another 10 would now be carrying the highly contagious virus.

The federal Health Minister, Nicola Roxon, yesterday acknowledged the H1N1 virus was spreading rapidly and said the Government was assessing new measures to contain it.

"The community does have to prepare itself for there to be a significant increase in the number of cases confirmed," she said.

Raina MacIntyre, a professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at the University of NSW, said banning sporting events, music concerts and other mass gatherings would curb the virus if the Government acted soon.

"If you wait until the peak of the epidemic, it's too late. You really have to implement those social distancing measures right at the beginning of the epidemic for them to be effective and they can be highly effective," said Professor MacIntyre, who is a member of Australia's Pandemic Influenza Advisory Group.

Dr Jodie McVernon, a pediatrician who has been modelling the virus for the Federal Government, said parents should start stocking their pantries with non-perishables in case they find themselves in quarantine. "It's a sensible thing to do from now on in case your child's school is closed tomorrow," said Dr McVernon, who works at the University of Melbourne's population health department

Robert Booy, the head of clinical research at the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance at the University of Sydney, said while there were fewer than 70 confirmed swine flu cases to date nationally, the number of people infected could be as high as 1000.

And that could climb to tens of thousands within weeks.

"There's many cases that either don't have symptoms or they have sniffles and don't realise they've got it," he said. "They would be infectious but not as infectious as people who are coughing and sneezing a lot." He expected Australia would record swine flu deaths, with the victims likely to be people with chronic medical conditions.

"Once it starts to infect hundreds of thousands, we will see deaths," he said.

Professor Booy said it was possible for a person to catch both the seasonal flu and swine flu, however that was not unusual and did not necessarily make for an illness twice as bad. He said one in 20 children who presented to hospitals with a virus were infected with two viruses.

"We don't know that having two infections would be worse," he said. "Once you've got one viral infection, the body starts responding with particular hormones which stops other viruses getting in and causing trouble."

To date, most Australian cases have been mild and a vaccine should be ready by late July or early August, he said.

Children under 18 are most at risk of contracting the virus, with adults, particularly aged over 65, showing some immunity to it, the experts said.

With Mex Cooper

This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/national/experts-predict-one-in-five-people-will-be-infected-20090528-bnt1.html

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Originally posted by macemesmum macemesmum wrote:

I am in Western Australia and this is a bit tabloidy!! there is no panic here!! it is on the news but the average Joe couldnt care less.  both my daughters have the flu and we have taken them to the dr a number of times as they cant seem to get rid of it, we travelled to US in jan and had family from there visit us in feb and the kids have been sick since april but the dr looked at us like we were idiots and asked why they were off school?  we didnt mention swine flu as i dont think they have that just normal flu but the drs certainly arent testing peoplel didnt even ask if we been oversease wierd since hubby talking to them in american accent - as from usa!!


This is certainly useful and much thanks for posting. People do respond to tabloid and  it is probably regional. Victoria was supposed to be an epicenter of outbreak-

http://www.auinfo.com/Victoria.htm


Since it came through Brisbane (like Down Under and have Aussie friends) the Western part may still not be in the more alarmed region in the southeast where it is hitting, or was hitting the hardest.

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Originally posted by Johnray1 Johnray1 wrote:

Mecclinian,what is the body count in Austrilia? Johnray1


Rickster is right so far. Just did a pretty thorough walkabout and so far no one is reporting any deaths yet. I still think the Victoria area was bad. But will look further and post more.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rickster58 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 27 2009 at 12:48pm
Here is the latest update from Sydney.
 
Talk of hospitals being swamped and their being panic are absolute rubbish.
 
My company supplies federal and state government departments including the public health system an during my conversations with many hospital administrators yesterday I aksed them how the public was reacting. Most said it was business as usual, phone enquiries were up but there is no reports of panic.
 
Another case of media sensationalism.
 
Of course this is being fed by our government's incredible stupidity in the handling of the Pacific Dawn affair.  Those reports are true.
 
Yes, Australia will be hit hard by this current wave of H1N1 but that is simply because AUSTRALIANS DON"T PREPARE!
 
 
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Originally posted by rickster58 rickster58 wrote:

 
My company supplies federal and state government departments including the public health system an during my conversations with many hospital administrators yesterday I aksed them how the public was reacting. Most said it was business as usual, phone enquiries were up but there is no reports of panic.
 
Another case of media sensationalism.


This will take more investigation.

Here is a report on one situation in Australia from the public health minister.  There is always a fine line between what is reported and what is there. I would more interested in talking to triage and people actually working in ER- as per what I have experienced.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/health/814580/australia-monitoring-28-for-swine-flu


It is a top priority of all major governments to not alarm residents.  This is becoming more of an hour by hour thing and the flu season in Australia has great deal of time before it peaks. This is just the beginning, the first wave of cases which will last for months.

Most scientists and virologists who do not share the calm perception in light of what a pain Brisbane 10 was, and in light of the possibilities of this particular virus.

You might reflect on how things went in the U.S. and China. At first it was highly transparent- pronouncements of impending Pandemic- alert up to 5- and then April 29th the media started drying up. By late May we have widespread flu, and little testing in the general population, if any.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25549248-23289,00.html


HEALTH officials warned yesterday that as many as four million Australians could eventually catch swine flu.

Victoria's acting chief medical officer, Rosemary Lester, said an eventual infection rate of 20 per cent was a "fair estimate".

"Next year, this may well be the predominant (influenza virus)," she said.

NSW authorities faced a barrage of criticism over their belated realisation the virus was aboard the cruise ship Pacific Dawn.

NSW Health Minister John Della Bosca defended the state's actions after the P&O liner docked in Sydney on Monday, even as he announced a tightening of procedures for arrivals.

Mr Della Bosca said it was reasonable at the time to have assumed the illness was normal flu, given that the ship had not visited any affected countries.

But others were less forgiving, including passengers who condemned the lack of information.

The head of Christian Schools Australia, Stephen O'Doherty, said a child who had been on the Pacific Dawn had subsequently attended school for half a day before being told he should be at home in quarantine.

Although the boy has since been cleared, Mr O'Doherty said the school was "unimpressed by the way the Health Department have handled the matter".

Even other governments were critical, with one Victorian ministerial staffer saying NSW had been forced to tighten its protocols because it had "messed up". Infected Victorian passengers had only made it back to their home state "because NSW let them out of quarantine".

Federal Health Minister Nicola Roxon -- who warned that infections were likely to rise quickly in coming days -- defended NSW's handling of the case, but conceded that "not everybody seems to have been given consistent information on the ship".

Premier John Brumby agreed that people should not panic about the spread of the virus, as the symptoms continued to be mild and quarantine measures were working.

Under the new NSW procedures, incoming ships would be assumed to be infected with swine flu if any passengers or crew showed flu-like symptoms.

The state's chief health officer, Kerry Chant, said this might either see passengers confined on board until swine flu was ruled out, or they could be allowed to go home but asked to remain in isolation for seven days.

Latest official figures showed the number of confirmed cases was continuing to rise, reaching 66 nationwide by 6pm yesterday.

Thirty-four of those were in Victoria, with 18 in NSW and seven in Queensland, three each in the ACT and South Australia, and one in Western Australia. Tasmania and the Northern Territory are the only jurisdictions yet to record a confirmed case.

Yesterday, it emerged that a federal government report kept secret for three years had warned a bird flu pandemic could potentially expose everyone in Australia to disease within 10 weeks.

As tourism chiefs criticised "hysteria" over the illness, and health experts reassured the public that all cases so far had been mild, more infections unrelated to the Pacific Dawn are emerging.

comment: it is about money. The name of the flu was changed for the pork industry. The definition of Pandemic was changed so we would not be at level 6.

Two NRL referees and two sideline officials have been asked to remain in quarantine after sharing a plane from Canberra to Sydney on Sunday with a passenger later found to be carrying the virus.

Additional reporting: Rick Wallace, Angus Hohenboken

comment: more and more cases unrelated to the cruise ship are being reported.Quite bluntly you really have to look at where the soothing voices are coming from. The tourist industry and .gov. Things in Australia are just warming up.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rickster58 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 27 2009 at 5:50pm
Hi Med,
 
This morning has seen somewhat of a media frenzy relating to swine flu, in particular the Pacific Dawn affair.  My next door neighbor is the CFO of a large hospital here in Sydney. He confirmed what I said in my earlier post, that the panic seems to be coming from the media and only the media.
 
I have been listening to talk-back radio this morning and the topic is dominating the airwaves. Most comments are related to people's anger at the Government's handling of anything swine flu.
 
However behind the anger I do hear fear and uncertainty in people's voices. 
 
 
I'll keep you all  posted
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Originally posted by rickster58 rickster58 wrote:

Hi Med,
 
This morning has seen somewhat of a media frenzy relating to swine flu, in particular the Pacific Dawn affair.  My next door neighbor is the CFO of a large hospital here in Sydney. He confirmed what I said in my earlier post, that the panic seems to be coming from the media and only the media.
 
I have been listening to talk-back radio this morning and the topic is dominating the airwaves. Most comments are related to people's anger at the Government's handling of anything swine flu.
 
However behind the anger I do hear fear and uncertainty in people's voices. 
 
 
I'll keep you all  posted


Thanks Rickster- and I certainly yield on this-you are there. Your posting and input is very valuable. Since your season is switched.. I am being told August will be the worst month in Australia.. is this the peak for your season.. or is it earlier?

btw they are REALLY riding herd on this.. this is from 5 minutes ago..

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/28/2583030.htm

this is becoming a spin. When you start seeing identical statements pumped out hard... it could be flooding.. time will tell - but they are stomping on the reports of hysteria

An infectious disease expert says fears about the spread of swine flu are out of proportion to the threat posed by the disease, and sufferers do not need to be quarantined.

Australian National University microbiologist Peter Collignon says the virus currently spreading in Australia is no worse than annual influenza strains.

"I don't actually think this particular strain appears from the data ... to be worse than what we do predictably see every year," he said.

"My major concern about what's happening is the fear is out of proportion to what the data shows."

Professor Collignon says swine flu will inevitably spread around Australia this year, but there is no need to be alarmed.

comment: they are barely into this a week- it is too soon to make a summary statement on the virulence of the virus. It is too soon to call.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ausgirl122 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 28 2009 at 7:01am
I completely agree!!  the media is riding this so hard over here right now!  we got letter box drops, faxes to aged care facility i was working at, and its on the tv every 5 min, but people dont seem to be paying much attention, i dont sees anyone stocking up or self quarrantining, i think if aussies start seeing death then it may well be different, remember Australians are pretty much the most laid back people in the world - we coined the phrase No worries!!  that being said i am enjoying the media coverage as i am fully prepared and have been since 2003!
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LATEST AUSTRALIAN UPDATE
 

Australian swine flu cases near 150-mark

AAP

May 28, 2009 07:57pm

  • 147 confirmed cases of swine flu in Australia

THE number of confirmed swine flu cases in Australia has risen to 147, as the Federal Government orders 10 million doses of swine flu vaccine.

There have been 44 new confirmed cases since midday today. Victoria had 43 new cases and Queensland one new case.

Ninety-six people have now been confirmed as having swine flu in Victoria,  almost double that of the 53 declared by the state government earlier today.

The new figure, released by Victorian Health Minister Daniel Andrews, was confirmed by laboratory tests.

"The Department of Human Services is now checking for further details of their background history," Mr Andrews said in a statement.

Another three schools - St John's Catholic Primary School in Clifton Hill, St Monica's in Epping, and Melbourne Girls College in Richmond - will close after further cases were confirmed at each school.

Thornbury High School and Mill Park Secondary remain closed.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote macemesmum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 28 2009 at 2:43pm
From what i understand Rickster its a preorder
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this video just popped on my computer and started playing.. we can figure that one out later.
This doesn't sound tabloid. Having not even surfed for this I got a link.

http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200905/r378597_1762455.asx

mmmm that just blown..

alternate site

http://tinyurl.com/klmyxk



This (I am watching it looks very interesting and is dated today) so ... lets have a look.

Medclinician

comment: well I will write about this happening someday. 3,000 cases in quarantine in 24 hours and this is ABC mainstream. I think we just stepped out of the 'this is only being dramatized by alarmists and cheap news.'

When you have the leaders saying 'we are having difficult handling this' you have a problem. So look.. so I don't get the big A t-shirt - just keep monitoring- as I am - and prep- Aussies as well- I don't know is telling you this is no big deal..as of now.. it is.


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Originally posted by ausgirl122 ausgirl122 wrote:

I completely agree!!  the media is riding this so hard over here right now!  we got letter box drops, faxes to aged care facility i was working at, and its on the tv every 5 min, but people dont seem to be paying much attention, i dont sees anyone stocking up or self quarrantining, i think if aussies start seeing death then it may well be different, remember Australians are pretty much the most laid back people in the world - we coined the phrase No worries!!  that being said i am enjoying the media coverage as i am fully prepared and have been since 2003!


Hey Ausgirl - Down Under.. great place.. friends in Bribane- hopefully the laid back won't be too laid back because this is a nasty critter gene wise.. this one has great potential for getting fierce- and being spreadable- I am thinking the Brisbane 10 and it could be nasty- the problem is you are in the very EARLY flu season. If nothing else give it a month and it will be pretty out there.

That news report before this post is from ABC. I picked ABC because they have been alarmist stompers. they are not tabloid... they are not starving. In fact they were telling every one to chill out  Odd bit about just poppin up like that- but whatever..

Someday I'll be headed down that way towards Alice Springs and Ayer's Rock. Something VERY interesting to write about there.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Evergreen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 29 2009 at 11:42am
Medclinician, you sound so mysteriousabut Alice Springs and Ayer's Rock. Care to share? D
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Evergreen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 29 2009 at 12:25pm
Wow, that was refreshing. Love ya, D
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Evergreen - I had reposted.... thanks for listening... john


sure.. after I come back and write Outback.. :)
come go WalkAbout - be reborn

five minute break from all the anxiety about the outbreak 

Dreamtime - for all children - young and old.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sle62XV0BO0




http://www.wayoutback.com.au/

now back to the... Pandemic.

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Originally posted by macemesmum macemesmum wrote:

From what i understand Rickster its a preorder
 
I have serious doubts they will come up with an effective vaccine.
 
All they can hope for is a vaccine that is based on the CURRENT STRAIN that is circulating.
 
Any vaccine produced will be current for that strain only. As we know, this virus mutates fast. By the time it comes back to us in say September (peak of the flu season) it may have taken on characteristics that are not covered in the vaccine and be inneffective.
 
Vaccines are a catch up game
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