Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Spanish Flu 1918 & immune system |
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Posted: February 23 2006 at 9:55pm |
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I am currently reading a book on the 1918 pandemic, and would like to mention a common misconception that has been accepted as fact. From a poster in another thread: "I have dove myself into trying to find scientific or medical information about the H5N1 virus and how it relates to a healthy immune system or not. I just know that the 1918 flu tended to be lethal in the most healthy immune systems. The H5N1 virus is very similar and if you track the young and healthy death rates then you will see why I fear that the H5N1 virus could duplicate the same fate for those who are young and healthy." To state that the 1918 flu was MORE lethal in healthy young adults is a common misconception not verified by the numbers/ages of the fatalities. There is NO verifiable evidence proving that the 1918 flu was MORE or LESS deadly in young and healthy adults. That is a common notion due to the fact that when the flu first made it's appearance, it was in soldiers. Soldiers also congregated in large groups ...thereby facilitating the spread of the flu amongst their comrades. It STARTED it's rampage in the military community, thereby causing large numbers of fatalities in healthy young adults, giving the impression it TARGETED this group. Not so. Once unleashed on the civilian population, the mortality statistics stabilized in all sectors, and ages of the community. It did NOT indiscriminately kill or target ONLY healthy young adults. That is a fallacious notion, and cannot be born out by any imcomplete statistics of that time period. Being immune compromised DID not have a beneficiary effect as is assumed. As for the H5N1, I read an article about a turkish women whose two kids died and last remaining child and husband were hospitalized. She says she worked alongside them..........and is feeling fine. They showed a picture of her, in isolation, sitting happily in her hospital bed. SHe says she doesn't KNOW WHY she hasn't gotten sick. I'm sure the doctors are taking and studying her blood to find out why she remains well. It would be helpful if they could figure this out soon.........and let us all in on her secret. As with the 1918 flu, there is NO evidence to support any theory that H5N1 targets healthy vs. immune compromised. Don't jump to this conclusion too quickly....... watching and waiting are the key words. |
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And remainging calm, there being nothing to worry about? ...that sounds just like a page out of the government's 1918 playbook. Pardon the poke, but I don't think anybody is seriously going about stating that we should fatigue, stress or otherwise trash our immune systems so that when we get sick our "weakened" immune systems will save us. However, it appears pretty documented that cytokine storm and its sequelae is the primary cause of death in both 1918 and the current AF. Since that is a "strong" immune response, naturally there has been talk of "weakening" it. A wholly different ball game. I, myself, desire a strong body and immune system: but I do NOT want a strong immune response to Avian Flu, God forbid I or my family should get it. That has not been shown to be helpful anywhere that I've seen. So, how do we walk that line? Who knows? Who's had to before? Personally, I'm going to exercise and take generally health promoting supplements, but, should the AF go H2H, I plan on augmenting with Vit E, D, Selenium and Curcumin, to some extent. I haven't decided on a balance yet. Some of these are just starting to show promise in reducing infection and increase immune response while at the same time reducing inflammatory response. Hopefully this is all in the realm of idle talk |
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Reference, please? |
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Ella Fitzgerald
Valued Member Joined: January 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 586 |
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Oh good discussion Bannor. The light bulb has just went off for me! Yes, of course it is not the strength of the immune system but the strength of the immune response that causes the cytokine storm. My next question would then be what is the relation between a healthy vs. compromised immune system and a cytokine storm response? Also where do you get your information on how best to control a cytokine storm? You mention supplements you are going to try to find a balance with. Need more input....................
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Pandemics Happen!
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http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/H5N1-9reduit.pdf Check this out, the latest from Who on the Pandemic, page 24, and following pages ; states that in 1918, 99% of people who died where under the age of 65. Who seems to have verified it. |
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seesthelight
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 28 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 194 |
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--------the story continues so click the link for more info.. the last part reads: CHEMICAL STORM The H5N1 viruses brought in a storm of cytokines -- the immune system's signalling chemicals -- including IP-10, interferon beta, RANTES and interleukin-6. And the later, Vietnamese strains caused a bigger cascade than the 1997 strain. This could be because of continued mutations, the researchers said. "The H5N1 viruses have continued to reassort, acquiring different internal genes from other influenza viruses of avian origin," the researchers wrote. The study, published on the Internet at http://respiratory-research.com/, explains the severe respiratory distress suffered by H5N1 patients, who often say they struggle to breathe. Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota who has been advising the US government on the risks of a flu pandemic, said the study supports predictions that any possible H5N1 pandemic would be especially severe. It means being young and healthy could actually work against people who become infected. "Anyone could experience this very severe, life-threatening illness," Osterholm said in a telephone interview. "This is looking more and more like an H1N1 1918." The worst recorded influenza epidemic was in 1918, when an H1N1 strain swept the globe in a few months, killing anywhere between 20 million and 100 million people, depending on the estimate. In comparison, a pandemic in 1957 killed 2 million and one caused by an H3N2 virus in 1968 killed 1 million. "In 1918, even among the very young and the very old, there was a ten-fold increase in deaths," Osterholm said. "There was a 1,000-fold increase in young adults." This, in turn, could be bad news in trying to treat an pandemic, Osterholm said. Antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu and Relenza can help if given within a day or so of infection. "The idea that we may have 24 to 48 hours is based on the H3N2 model," Osterholm said. But if patients develop respiratory distress from a cytokine storm, even that may be too late, he said. ------------------------------------------------------------ -------
The strongest evidence comes from the clinical presentation of virulent influenza cases and the evidence in mice that infection with influenza virus carrying the HA gene from the 1918 virus seems to strongly activate some immune cells to over-produce a half dozen or more cytokines. An animation from The New England Journal article on H5N1 influenza by Mike Osterholm is meant to illustrate how a positive feedback could cause a cytokine storm, but it is only suggestive of one possibility, because we don’t know how a cytokine storm is produced in influenza (if indeed it is). However, it is reasonable and plausible to say cytokine dysregulation might be involved in some virulent influenza infections. In desperation, clinicians have treated patients with potent anti-inflammatory drugs, usually steriods. There is no evidence that this helps. A “cytokine storm” of a more limited nature is sometimes seen in cancer chemotherapy patients, where it is treated in its earliest stages by iv. benadryl and steroids, with some success. However in these cases, there is no infectious agent involved; even if steroids worked for influenza-induced cytokine storm, they cause a general downshift of the immune system which might allow the virus to run rampant and kill the patient via ordinary viral pneumonia. In ordinary infection-related sepsis, steroids are shown to slightly increase mortality (Crit Care Med. 1995 Aug;23(8):1430–9.) This is but one of the complicating considerations that clinicians will have to navigate during an outbreak. <<<<This is a bird flu website , isn't it?..that is what we are talking about ...we know much of what is being studied is also still unknown and unwritten about bird flu. If they knew everything they would have the vaccine. But are you going to say Osterholm is wrong? Key word is cytokine dysregulation-weak , strong , healthy who knows what goes haywire due to the virus. Cytokines are as follows:>>>>>>> Cytokines are important components of the immune system that act as messages between cells. In this context, the purpose of the immune system is to protect us from microbial infection (viruses, bacteria, parasites, fungi). <<<<<<This has been my point all along. >>>>> |
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We need to keep in mind what the life expectancy was in 1918. I do not think it was above 50 years old. (would need to do some searching to verify) So to compare 1918 to now in terms of age related deaths is very difficult to do. You will not get many people in 1918 over the age of 65 dying of the flu because there were not many people that old. Remember that this was the time before Social Security, antibiotics, and work safety measures. People died young.
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seesthelight
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 28 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 194 |
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http://health.ivillage.com/infectious/infflu/0,,wbnews_8ft7r hnw,00.html FRIDAY, Nov. 11 (HealthDay News) -- As concern mounts over the potential spread of avian flu to humans, researchers believe they've discovered one reason why the infection can prove so deadly. Experiments with human cells have found the H5N1 virus can trigger levels of inflammatory proteins called cytokines and chemokines that are more than 10 times higher than those that occur during a bout of the common flu. This massive increase in cytokine and chemokine activity can inflame airways, making it hard to breathe. It also contributes to the unusual severity of the avian flu, which can result in life-threatening pneumonia and acute respiratory distress. According to the latest World Health Organization data, 125 cases of human H5N1 infection have been reported worldwide, including 64 deaths. All of these cases have occurred in Southeast Asia, and involved bird-to-human transmission. However, experts warn that if the virus mutates so that it can pass from human to human, a global pandemic could ensue. Reporting in the Nov. 11 online edition of Respiratory Research, Michael Chan from the University of Hong Kong and his collaborators in Vietnam looked at the levels of cytokines and chemokines in human lung tissue exposed to the H5N1 virus. They compared protein levels induced by strains of the H5N1 virus with levels induced by a more common, less virulent human flu virus, called H1N1. Chan's team found that H5N1 induces more pro-inflammatory proteins than H1N1. After infection with H5N1, levels of the chemokine IP-10 in bronchial epithelial cells reach 2200 picograms per milliliter , compared with only 200 picograms per milliliter in cells infected with H1N1. Similar results were found for levels of other chemokines and cytokines. "The recent re-emergence of H5N1 disease in humans is a cause for renewed pandemic concern and highlights the need for a better understanding of the pathogenesis of human H5N1 disease," the study authors wrote. "Such understanding will lead to new strategies for managing human H5N1 disease and enhance our preparedness to confront pandemic influenza, whether from H5N1 or other influenza A subtypes." One expert said the findings are in line with symptoms seen so far in patients infected with the avian flu strain. "These findings fit with what we see clinically," said Dr. Christian Sandrock, an assistant professor of pulmonary critical care and infectious diseases at the University of California Davis. "This is what we would expect with this virus." When the H5N1 virus comes into contact with the cells of the trachea and small air sacs in the lungs, it drives up the production of these cytokines, Sandrock explained. The cytokines trigger inflammation, a normal response by the body to help fight the virus. "The problem is that sometimes the inflammation can be so bad there's collateral damage," he said. "That collateral damage can cause inflammation and damage to your lungs enough so that you are unable to breathe, and you get acute respiratory distress." The findings provide a scientific reason for what is being seen clinically, Sandrock said. "But there's still a lot we don't know," he added. "This study confirms earlier work that H5N1 induces a cytokine 'storm,'" said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health, in Minneapolis. "It helps us understand the pathophysiology of the disease." The noted increase in cytokine production is what distinguishes avian flu from other flu, Osterholm said. "The hyperproduction of cytokines is very relevant. It points out that the way people actually experience severe illness with this virus is different than what we see with other influenza viruses." "This is basically a cytokine storm induced by this specific virus, which then leads to respiratory distress syndrome," Osterholm said. "This also makes sense of why you tend to see a preponderance of severe illness in those who tend to be the healthiest, because the ability to increase the production of cytokines is actually higher in those who are not immune-compromised. It's more likely in those who are otherwise healthy." More information Find out more about avian flu at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. SOURCES: Michael T. Osterholm, Ph.D., professor, public health, and director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis; Christian Sandrock, M.D., M.P.H., assistant professor, pulmonary critical care and infectious diseases, University of California, Davis; Nov. 11, 2005, Respiratory Research online This is a story from HealthDay, a service of ScoutNews, LLC. |
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Teagen
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 45 |
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Could the fact that 99% of the people that died were under the age of 65 be because that in 1918 the age expectancy was not much more then 65 ? |
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plainsman
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I know for sure the life expectancy in 1945, the year I was born was 62.9. So, I would guess in 1918 it was in the mid to upper 50's.
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It sure drops in 1918
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First of all, though I work in healtcare, I do not consider myself an expert on the immune system so all that I say is purely IMHO. My observation is that the state of a persons immune system is not purely dictated by their cytokine response to inflammation. There are other hard to measure factors: free radical uptake, blood 02 levels, T-cell and antibody responses. Many invading organism probably die in our mouths and throats on the way in: there are studies to show that people on antacids and acid reduction medications like prevacid, axid, prilosec and nexxium get a higher degree of colds and flus - speculation is that the lowering of the acidic levels of the eosophagus and trachea allow bacteria and viruses to survive to the lungs. Personally,in addition to exercise and eating as well as I can, I plan on taking a regular supplement, pre flu. If and when H2H occurs, I plan on adding Omega 3, Curcumin (with piperine), VitE, Vit D and Cat's Claw to my diet: not in massive amounts, but in moderate daily dose. Also, I will probably start cosuming zinc lozenges on an ongoing basis since they make the mucous membranes hostile to foreign organisms. People rave about "Airborne"...I've tried it, my daughter likes it...it's a lot of Vit C which works synergistically with E as an anti-inflammatory...and that's what we're talking about here, basically. Plus, I hope to acquire and begin wearing a personal ozone generator: I have enough reports from folks in my practice to be convinced that there is some benefit to be derived from having a small cloud of ions/ozone around our personal airspace as a layer of protection against bacteria/viruses. Generally and roughly, between those two approaches, I plan on aiding my bodies defenses against getting sick and, at the same time, trying to suppress those certain reactions which are dangerous with AF. Lastly, on a related note: Dr. Richie Shoemaker, MD in Maryland ( http://www.moldwarriors.com/about-ritchie-shoemaker.htm) has done a massive amount of work relating to TNF and cytokine production and their relationship to inflammatory response and the "herxheimer" reaction. His work has been done in relation to inflammation with Lyme, CFS, Pfiseria and Molds, (http://www.chronicneurotoxins.com/learnmore/latestAbstracts .cfm) and and reactions creating a massive inflammatory response from cytokine and TNF production secondary to the FDA approved off lable use of a drug called cholestyramine to bind neurotoxins from the above conditions. Where does all that lead? He has found that the off label use of Actos or Avandia, both primarily prescribed for mild diabetics blocks this inflammatory reaction/cytokine and TNF production. Whether this will be helpful in an AF pandemic, I don't know, but I am looking into it So...for what it's worth that's my personal current thoughts on the subject.
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mightymouse
Valued Member Joined: January 27 2006 Status: Offline Points: 487 |
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Please don't discount a natural remedy which seems to have some validity- Kimchi- http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4347443.stm
It's quite easy to make at home. I make it by the gallon all the time. Many recipies on the net. Also can buy at oriental food stores in any city. I eat it everyday and haven't caught the BF yet. It's a little spicy and takes some getting used to but once you do you'll love it. Add to salads, as side dish, or just a good snack.
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Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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EXCELLENT post, Bannor and excellent points for all to consider. If you read this, could you explain the importance of the zinc lozenges that you mentioned? I may want to look into getting them. As we all know, whether we choose to beef up our immune systems or not is no guarantee. No one has many definitive answers concerning humans and H5N1. I'm with Bannor though. Now, for the 1918 flu.......the life expectancy as many mentioned wasn't even 65, so of course the majority of deaths were in those under 65. The book is called "Flu" by Gina Kolata.....I believe I spelled that right. She's a science reporter for the New York Times and studied microbiology in college. (written in 1999)
Mentioned in the quotes below, Taubenberger was a molecular biologist at the Armed Forces Institue of Pathology, quoted in this book, "Flu"... From the aforementioned book: " In a sense it is the ultimate frustration. Scientists have capture the mass murderer, the 1918 flu virus. But they still do not know its murder weapon. "We definately have the right suspect, but we do not yet know how the murder was committed" Taubenberger said. " (end of quote) Taubenberger thinks it unlikely that the immune system and not the flu itself caused the deaths of so many in 1918. He states that for that to have happened, the 1918 population would have had to build up an immune response to a previous flu, likely the one that struck in 1890. He said it was UNLIKELY, but that the only way to rule it out totally is to find some of the 1890 virus. His first and preferred THEORY is that the virus was new, like nothing the people had encountered before, so they had no antibodies to protect themselves. Also from the book: "If this story was fiction, the clues would yield a suspect and the suspect would reveal the weapon. But it is science, and science is not always neat and clean. In science, each new finding can open the door to a flurry of new questions." (end of quote) The 1918 flu is still a mystery is some regards. No one has the answers to all it's mysteries........how much less answers does science have the H5N1's mysteries............ ALSO: I was googling the latest health news and came across an article on Crohn's disease. It is pertinent in this discussion in that doctors are now reevaluating a long held belief that they say is now likely NOT the case. Weakened Immune System May Cause Crohn's Disease THURSDAY, Feb. 23 (HealthDay News) -- A weak immune system, rather than an overactive one, may be responsible for Crohn's disease, a new study reports. When you see a patient with Crohn's, you find they have a lot of inflammation, so it's been assumed that they have a hyper-inflammatory response," said Dr. Anthony W. Segal, a professor of medicine at University College London. "But we believe that the underlying problem is not hyper[activity], but failure of the acute inflammatory response." Many experts believe that disease flare-ups are caused when immune system cells release excess amounts of molecules called cytokines, which attack the intestinal cells and cause the inflammation. "There have been other studies in the last year or two that Crohn's disease is really a problem dealing with bacteria in the colon and the inflammation is set up because there's more of a defective immune response to the bacteria in the gut," said Dr. John Thompson, director of the division of pediatric gastroenterology and nutrition at the University of Miami's Miller School of Medicine. (end of quote) Some long held beliefs are discounted as doctors learn new things each day. Now the probablility is not that cytokines cause this, but rather a weakened immune system.
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seesthelight
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 28 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 194 |
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READ http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pandem ic-influenza.htm As expected, many of the deaths in 1918 were from pneumonia caused by secondary bacterial infections. But Spanish flu also caused a form of primary viral pneumonia, with extensive hemorrhaging of the lungs, that could kill the perfectly fit within 48 hours or less. Many people died from this very quickly. Some people who felt well in the morning became sick by noon, and were dead by nightfall. Those who did not succumb to the disease within the first few days often died of complications from the flu (such as pneumonia) caused by bacteria. The male death rates in 1918 far exceed the female death rates among adults. One of the most unusual aspects of the Spanish flu was its ability to kill young adults. The reasons for this remain uncertain. In general the rate of death is highest for the very young and older persons. The 1918 pandemic followed a strikingly different pattern, with the highest mortality in young persons 25-30 years old. With the Spanish flu, mortality rates were high among healthy adults as well as the usual high-risk groups. The attack rate and mortality was highest among adults 20 to 50 years old. The severity of that virus has not been seen again in humans. The reasons for this difference are still poorly understood. It is believed that a subset of victims experienced a primary viral pneumonia which caused a very rapid clinical decline and death. It is widely belived that cytokine storming [Immune-complexes-mediated pathogenesis] could be one of the mechanisms that resulted in damaging the lung tissue. Normally, when the lungs are under attack from a virus, T-cells, defenders from the immune system, are then sent to the site of the infection. The presence of T-cells initiate a second immune system attack by chemicals, known as cytokines, that cause inflammation. A cytokine is a small protein released by cells that has a specific effect on the interactions between cells, on communications between cells or on the behavior of cells. The cytokines includes the interleukins, lymphokines and cell signal molecules, such as the interferons, which trigger inflammation and respond to infections. When the lungs are infected with the flu virus, the T cells release chemical signals that cause them to stay longer in the lungs. The systemic symptoms of seasonal flu are caused by cytokine release, which is part of the human immune response. A Cytokine storm [a systemic inflammatory response syndrome] -- immune system "friendly fire" -- is believed to be the underlying reason for the high death rate among young adults. It results when too many immune cells are in an endless loop of calling even more cytokines. During the flu infection the immune system has an "all hands on deck" attitude to the viral assault. More T cells are always arriving, and they in turn release more signal and stay longer, leading to a build up of T cells and chemical signals. The exaggerated immune response produces inflammatory molecules that lead to too many cells clogging up the airways and preventing efficient transfer of oxygen into the bloodstream. This Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome [ARDS] is what makes the Cytokine storm so deadly in pandemic flu. It is suggested that the high death rate among healthy young adults was due to their strong immune systems producing a cytokine storm. The very young and very old would have had weaker immune systems, and thus weaker immune responses that would not result in a cytokine storm. |
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So, are we then left to choose between dying by seesthelight's cytokine storm or from bacterial pneumonia caused by weakened immune systems?
Seems to me, either way, weak or strong immunity, there are risks. |
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calendula
Valued Member Joined: February 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 345 |
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I believe the major problem is the cytokine storm in the body as a strong response from the immune system, and that is what scientists are trying to find a solution to,an alternate venue to counteract the virus within the human immune system, I have read research on "peripheral protection" no immunologist have been able to figure it out yet. |
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I am not here to reason, I am here to create"
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