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Pneumonic Plague-Is it headed toward U.S. |
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Medclinician
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Posted: November 17 2009 at 12:44am |
With the whispered specter that there have been some cases of pneumonic
plague in Ukraine, comes the logical question- are we in the path of an
outbreak- much like the prediction of the 2020 comet smacking into us?
Its possible. I have put this here as a topic because it is not here yet (well a lot) and yet there are shudders in the world indicated it is getting ready to make a move. First we go to China which as recent as August had an outbreak. http://thefastertimes.com/globalpandemics/2009/08/09/quarantine-pneumonic-plague-outbreak-in-china/ Pneumonic plague has killed three during a recent outbreak which began at the end of July in Ziketan, North West China. Pneumonic plague is extremely rare, but is the most deadly type of plague. Since the start of the outbreak, nine additional human infections with Yersinia pestis, the bacteria which causes plague, have been confirmed in this Tibetan Area of Qinghai Province. The threat of disease spread was considered serious enough that the Chinese authorities took aggressive measures to keep 10,000 inhabitants of Qinghai province under quarantine. Media reports suggest that these restrictions have now been lifted. (go to web page for full story) How nasty is pneumonic plague? Very. Since it is different than the Bubonic Plague (fleas spread it) but rather airborne-it has the potential being a high killer (95%) without treatment- 5-10% with. Its potential as a bioweapon is basically an infrastructure missile. At 5% CFR, the infrastructure of a country will collapse. Yet, its danger is the user cannot predict it mutating and coming back to bite them in the .. China went to great pains to quarantine the outbreak. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumonic_plague Who would use it? One obvious group would be extremists. While much focus is given to the classic suitcase nuke and New York scenario- the blue vial (my term) subway splash would be far more effective. One big plus is no structural damage, no radioactivity, and a huge kill count. And with weapons grade forms in undisclosed labs for research purposes- it is the essence of the pathogen which germinate such movies as The Stand and Outbreak. So there were ripples on the net Reports coming in of hemorrhagic pneumonic plague in Ukraine- and then cries of foul by microbiologists. Classic pplague isn't hemorrhagic. For it to be- it would have to be engineered. Yet such a form would be especially bad. So then we get another ripple of autopsies, dark lungs, and positive pplague tests. The we get snarls of the keep it down crowd that this is conspiracy scare- and trash. Finally- it comes down to - not enough data. As with all bioweapons and the love of America by certain extremists groups it is a potential scenario-natural or not. And the root of the theory- this is what will rise the hackles- If you wanted to attack America with a bioweapon- would you attack America? Probably not. A country or group attacking us directly would get a nuke or something appropriate. However what if you hit Mexico- or a foreign nation knowing it would eventually get to America- i.e. India or Hong Kong? And being a group without a real target to hit- .... Yes some can worry about being hit by fecal material from a jet and dying (Dead Like Me) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Like_Me Will 2010 be the year that some form of something really nasty unlike Avian or even Swine Flu hits America? Even after everyone gets the big sigh of relief, will another comet still be headed toward us not even charted on the maps. Like Skye says.. you never know. Medclinician |
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Medclinician
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Pneumonic Plague in L.A. Can pplague be hemorrhagic? For that matter has it been in the U.S. And closer to my once home turf- has it been to California? Oddly U.S. has the unique distinction of being a plague bearer where other regions may not.
In the United States during the 1980s plague cases averaged about 18 per year. Most of the cases occurred in persons under 20 years of age. About 1 in 7 persons with plague died.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/plague/info.htm Well.. there is a modern CFR as of 1980 of a least the regular plague- looks like 15%- way above the 5-10% quoted throughout the net and this is from CDC. Europeans and other countries may turn their noses a bit up in the sense
more CDC solid data
conclusion: So- this has a gross picture of a hand of person expired from plague so I won't give a link- but the data I found was
Now it may be time to see if the United States are as capable of controlling the Black Death, a cat in Colorado has tested positive for pneumonic plague the Vail Daily reports. So far residents of Eagle County in Colorado have only been given advice on avoiding regular bubonic plague which is transmitted through flea bites, and no quarantine has been set up. Pneumonic plague is especially deadly as it can kill within 24 hours and is transmitted through the air in coughs and sneezes. (the source material is gone in the Vail Daily) date of above article August 12, 2009
pretty recent and within how many days of the outbreak in China? nah...
So- it doesn't necessarily have to come from an extemist attack. It could just be a matter of petting the wrong praire dog or squirrel.
So the national parkgrounds are not a great petting zoo for little kids or bigger people either.
pplauge (pnuemonic) spread would not involved petting. Pneumonic plague is especially deadly as it can kill within 24 hours and is transmitted through the air in coughs and sneezes. Thus, as a doctor friend of mine would say, is its nemesis. Too fast a killer to be a really good spreader- unless... it was engineered to have a longer incubation period.
Medclinician
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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Technologist,you have left out one little bit of information on the Plague. All of the Southwest states have plague in the praire dog population.This can and has infected American humans every year.Johnray1
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Medclinician
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JR- its me. Just put up two posts on Pplague. Right now they have the sequence of the paths in Ukraine-Norway-and China- just a mini twitch on the stitch- enough to matter though. med |
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Medclinician
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http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol2no1/fritz.htm
In September 1994, in response to a reported epidemic of plague in India, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) enhanced surveillance in the United States for imported pneumonic plague. Plague information materials were rapidly developed and distributed to U.S. public health officials by electronic mail, facsimile, and expedited publication. Information was also provided to medical practitioners and the public by recorded telephone messages and facsimile transmission. Existing quarantine protocols were modified to effect active surveillance for imported plague cases at U.S. airports. Private physicians and state and local health departments were relied on in a passive surveillance system to identify travelers with suspected plague not detected at airports. From September 27 to October 27, the surveillance system identified 13 persons with suspected plague; no case was confirmed. This coordinated response to an international health emergency may serve as a model for detecting other emerging diseases and preventing their importation. In the past 50 years, the speed of international travel, as well as the number of travelers, has accelerated, providing a mechanism for the rapid dissemination of disease agents from one country to another. For this reason, vigilant surveillance is needed to prevent the importation and spread of emergent infections. The United States needs a response plan that involves international and domestic public health officials, physicians and hospitals, and the public and can be implemented at the first indication of an international health threat. In 1994, in response to an epidemic of pneumonic plague in India, the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) developed and implemented an
enhanced surveillance system to supplement the existing regulations concerning
imported plague. The protocol described here may serve as a model for detection
and control of emerging diseases imported into the United States or other
countries with frequent and diverse international traffic. comment: check link for full article Medclinician |
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