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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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When Do You SIP?

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Poll Question: When do you Stay In Place at home?
Vote Poll Choice Votes Poll Statistics
9 [32.14%]
8 [28.57%]
0 [0.00%]
0 [0.00%]
0 [0.00%]
0 [0.00%]
0 [0.00%]
11 [39.29%]

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    Posted: February 26 2012 at 12:00pm
The topic of Stay In Place (SIP) is a very important one before anything happens. It could be H5N1 or some other virus or situation that would call for SIP.

The BIG QUESTION is WHEN do you SIP!!!   

Most of us have jobs and bosses who expect you to show up to work or lose that job. If a threat is perceived but does not come to be really bad and you have SIP and lose your job your LIFE CHANGES big time. Today jobs are not easy to come by.

SIP is a cute idea we all have but what is the REALITY?

Sorry to burst everyone's buble but even though most of us have preps to SIP...Staying In Place is not an easy decision.

Let us all have a real discussion on this and maybe we can help each other with some reality checks. I know I have brought this subject up before but let us have some real ideas of what to do and how to make this decision.
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I am the first other vote. I do not know what I will do. I work in a school with some parents who travel all over the United States and the world with their jobs. So I could be one of the first exposed.

When I SIP is a real problem.   That is why I would love some suggestions and what will determine when you SIP.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DANNYK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2012 at 1:14pm
For me it is easy,my wife and i own a small diner.we answer to no one other than our custermers.if we see a increase in deaths in our town SIP it will be .I think everyone here will know when to stay home.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2012 at 4:57pm
I only work part-time, about 15 hours a week, so I am not the major money maker, I can quit my job at any time, it's not an issue and I don't make a huge amount. Hubby has about 60 days of sick leave and vacation time through his job, not sure what could be done over the phone or from home.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2012 at 8:13pm
Good point Penham, use sick days. See I never think of using my sick days.

DannyK you are lucky!

These are great comments keep them coming folks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2012 at 8:47pm
Nice idea to move the SIP debate to it's own thread   

This is a tough one, as I'd like to think I know a little more about pandemics than Joe Public, and would see the writing on the wall a little sooner. I'd have to know the strain, the infection rate, mortality, spread, etc before I'd make a decision. I work in healthcare, and I have people relying on me, but I also have a family that I might bring a virus home to. Of course, that could happen at my son's school or my wife's workplace, but if I felt the threat was too close and too great I'd start considering an SIP.

Too many factors to give a short answer, so I checked "other" as well.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2012 at 9:12am
I think that I would SIP when The media starts talking about a lot of sickness and deaths that start to occur in our country,and the masses start to panic! That will be my wake up call..
Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SusanT Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2012 at 12:12pm
Does anyone know the government's parameters for when the schools would shut down for an epidemic? That would be a good indicator for me since I work at an elementary school. Other than that, I think at 10% I would be scared to go out of the house, but my husband would be the issue. He would want to continue working as usual for as long as possible.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2012 at 12:40pm
SIP is a Grandeos idea and in reality will be the only effective tool until a vaccine is available. The problem is not the idea of SIP its in practice. It really depends on your situation, and location.
 
Do you work in Healthcare
Do you work in Law Enforcement
Do you work in Education
Do you have children who attend school
Do you use DayCare
Do you have sick time that rolls over
How long can you SIP if you did (Food--Water--ECT)
 
Are way of life and our economy is set up for no hiccups, especially down time of any kind. Corps just do not look that far in to the future (Its all about now--quarterly profits).
 
Last time 2009 we could not even get school closures done correctly as was discribed under the CDC's pandemic plan. As soon as it came up Big Corps fought back and pushed on government and the closure plan was dropped (Money over People), good thing it was not severe!!!!!.
 
I think it really just depends on how cut off from the current system you are and whether your working in that system or not. Imagine if all of the healthcare and law enforcement just decided to SIP for 30 days (((( Shocked )))
 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Mahshadin, I agree to SIP is a Grandeos idea that is why I started this subject. I think it is Grandeos because most of us need our jobs and unless we are let out of working we will stay!

If you have a kid in College will you want them to come home and SIP at 10% death rate and flunk out or lose the money invested.

My gut feel is that most of us will not SIP when we need to and some of us will not make it even though we are prepared! I just pray that none of us ever have to find out.

With Israel possible boming of Iran we could have a huge war ahead of us. We are living in interesting times.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2012 at 10:37pm
Without getting contentious, let me just ask this - if we're not going to shelter in place, why are we stockpiling things that we expect to run out? If you're planning on life as normal out in the big wide world as a pandemic rages on, save your money and stop prepping. I agree that if we're talking about a minor pandemic like 2009 I don't see an SIP being necessary, but I'm prepping for a highly virulent (and probably pure avian) influenza coming out of left field and potentially killing hundreds of millions. I'm not prepping or planning to SIP for anything but the big one, but in that eventuality we absolutely will be sheltering in place.

I'm getting as ready as I can to get my family through the worst until a vaccine becomes available without having to be out in public. In healthcare we make the assumption that everyone is infected and use universal precautions in all situations. In a pandemic I'll assume everyone has the virus, and I won't want to be out on the streets risking infection. For me, the timing of an SIP is the only question, not whether I will or not. When it gets too dangerous, the doors will close and we'll do our best to sit it out.

Richard Canas, when he was the NJ Homeland Security Director, had this to say on the subject -
"You're going to be staying home for one year. There will be no school, there will be no work... all we'll be doing is trying to keep ourselves alive".

The best benchmark we have for a future major pandemic (as opposed to a minor Asian/Hong Kong event) is 1918, and it got so bad that there weren't enough people to bury the dead, and corpses often lay where they fell, even if that was on the sidewalk. As many as a million people dying a day at it's height, and that in a world far more self sufficient than modern day society. At some point it will be suicide to mingle with others, and it won't be grandiose or cute but the difference between your living family members and your dead neighbors. Sorry, but I don't see a way to sugarcoat it.

If something like Spanish flu were to hit, I fully expect my facility to go dark at some point, and the decision to work will be taken out of my hands (as I believe it will for most of us). There will simply be no point me showing up. No power, no water, no job.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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I agree jacksdad, my worry is that many of us will not SIP soon enough. I am ready for a year to stay at home. If the water goes down I will after 5 months have to go out and get water. I have all the things to make it potable and get it safely.

I have a kid going to college 3 hours away and when to call him out of school will be difficult at best. The fact I live and work in an area where people travel all over the world exposes me to more of a chance of getting sick sooner. I am a widow and need my job so I can not quit without permission from my employer after use of my sick days. I believe that school districts will wait until the last minute because days in school means money to the districts.

That is why I have started this topic, I am trying to get wiser as to how to figure out that a deadly virus is bad enough to SIP before I or my only child gets infected.

I appreciate your views jacksdad they give perspective.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2012 at 9:47pm
"I appreciate your views jacksdad they give perspective."

FluMom, you're most welcome. Like I said, I didn't want to sound contentious - I just got a little worried when I thought it was being debated whether to SIP or not. This is a tight group that's stuck around this long on AFT and I'd hate to think of any of us coming to harm by not being cautious (or indeed overly cautious) when it mattered. You've been through a lot in the past few years, and you've kept going despite everything life has thrown at you, and I'd hate myself for not offering advice that I felt was in your best interest. We might not always be on the same page ideologically, but we're all part of the AFT family. Watching each others backs is part of our job here.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2012 at 10:37pm
I would like to think because we are so aware, watching what's going on, checking in here, that we are smarter than the average person, I think we will know when it's time. I remember in 2009, I changed my work schedule (I'm a vendor and fortunately I work my own schedule so I can work when I want as long as the work gets done), I was actually going in and working in some stores before they even opened, so I was in and out and had my stores stocked before they even opened to the public. Or I worked early in the morning, there are not alot of shoppers out at 8 or 9 in the morning. We did other small things that we continue to do today, like my 16 year old still refuses to drink out of a water fountain, lol, I carry a case of water in my truck. We still carry hand sanitizer.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2012 at 11:24pm
SIP is a little idealistic.  I, for one, plan to do this, BUT I firmly believe that we won't be able to isolate ourselves long enough.  If we have a pandemic, this thing could last for many years.  Just when you think it is over, WHAM, it comes back with a vengeance.  It could be a really long time before you can get in line for a flu shot, assuming it even works.
 
My bottom line is this; prepare, SIP, but recognize the possibility that none of us may escape a pandemic.  No one can isolate themselves for 2-5 years.
 
Part of preparation is to be realistic in understanding that a pandemic may last much longer than your supplies. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2012 at 5:40am
Historically flu comes in waves, so hopefully there would be times when it would be safe to venture back out to replenish supplies, work, etc. I guess my thought on the job situation is, if everyone around you is dying, who cares about your job if it means exposing yourself to possible death. After all sick leave, vacation, runs out hubby would just not go back I am guessing, if the situation is that bad. He will just get another job later. Me I would just not go/quit/whatever, my company is pretty lenient, I'm a vendor work my own hours anyway, would depend on the situation whether I got fired or not, but oh well.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2012 at 12:47pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

Without getting contentious, let me just ask this - if we're not going to shelter in place, why are we stockpiling things that we expect to run out? If you're planning on life as normal out in the big wide world as a pandemic rages on, save your money and stop prepping. I agree that if we're talking about a minor pandemic like 2009 I don't see an SIP being necessary, but I'm prepping for a highly virulent (and probably pure avian) influenza coming out of left field and potentially killing hundreds of millions. I'm not prepping or planning to SIP for anything but the big one, but in that eventuality we absolutely will be sheltering in place.

I'm getting as ready as I can to get my family through the worst until a vaccine becomes available without having to be out in public. In healthcare we make the assumption that everyone is infected and use universal precautions in all situations. In a pandemic I'll assume everyone has the virus, and I won't want to be out on the streets risking infection. For me, the timing of an SIP is the only question, not whether I will or not. When it gets too dangerous, the doors will close and we'll do our best to sit it out.

Richard Canas, when he was the NJ Homeland Security Director, had this to say on the subject -
"You're going to be staying home for one year. There will be no school, there will be no work... all we'll be doing is trying to keep ourselves alive".

The best benchmark we have for a future major pandemic (as opposed to a minor Asian/Hong Kong event) is 1918, and it got so bad that there weren't enough people to bury the dead, and corpses often lay where they fell, even if that was on the sidewalk. As many as a million people dying a day at it's height, and that in a world far more self sufficient than modern day society. At some point it will be suicide to mingle with others, and it won't be grandiose or cute but the difference between your living family members and your dead neighbors. Sorry, but I don't see a way to sugarcoat it.

If something like Spanish flu were to hit, I fully expect my facility to go dark at some point, and the decision to work will be taken out of my hands (as I believe it will for most of us). There will simply be no point me showing up. No power, no water, no job.
 
_____________________________________________________________________________________ 
 

Please don't get me wrong jacksdad, I completely agree with the SIP concept as the only rational and effective tool in a severe pandemic until a vaccine is available. It really is the only short term and even long term solution to save human life with a deadly disease that can only be spread through contact (H2H). The problem comes in when you view it in a different perspective, whats good for humans is not necessarily good for Corporations for example. As a matter of fact SIP would be the equivalent of a Pandemic for Corporate entities as they can not die from the Flu. They can however die from financial loss or the loss of financial support. Many of our Corporations over the last few decades have shortened their financial cycles to the point where many could not survive even a short disruption of cash flow.

I had never really considered this until I was part of a special task group at the very large corp I worked at for a decade. I was responsible for the security of a very large facilty and grounds for our local site, which is part of a much larger nation wide Corp with over 30 such sites nation wide. Each facility had one person who was responsible for the local sites security. In 2009 and 2010 we were all tasked with coming up with a Corporate pamplet for emergencies and responses to those emergencies from the littlest to the largest. As you can imagine this turned out to be a large and lengthly task with regional groups meeting monthly until a draft was complete. Originally it was intended to be a pamphlet but in reality turned out to be a book. I volunteered to do the work on Pandemics and disease emergencies and response as did 2 others.  In the end SIP was part of our recommendation to be part of the text based on a host of scenarios and information but mainly governmental information with a response on when tied to an established CFR of 5% triggering a SIP event in the case of Pandemic type situation. Anyway to make a long story short this went on for a year until it was finally complete and covered everything from a single armed individual entering the site to a massive flood event. Once done this went upstairs for final review by Corp heads and came back with some things changed, others re-worded, and yet others eliminated. The SIP recommendation was eliminated with the justification of (Not Feasible). As you can imagine knowing me from this board I attempted to debate this with facts and historical examples but in the end it was decided it was not in the best interest of the Corporation with the argument being the Corp could maybe survive 90 days but would not survive 180 days. I had not really considered this perspective, as most of what we had done was for protecting human life not the Corporate Life which are very different perspectives. Bottom line is the argument came down to this: The Corporation could manage a 5 to10 percent reduction in workforce but could not manage a 100% financial loss for any length of time. (The Show Must Go On As They Say)

Again I did not mean to disparage your post in any way jacksdad I simply meant I think SIP and the implementation of SIP will come down to personal situations each of us are in. Its kind of funny it wasn't long after that that the Corp eliminated carryover sick time from year to year. I have since left that Corporation. What this experience did show me was how a different perspective could change the outcome or decisions made in such emergencies.

Here is another perspective. More than 50 % of the US population exists paycheck to paycheck or within 60 days of financial collapse. In a true SIP situation would the bank just say don't worry about that mortgage payment or rent payment were in SIP (Not Likely). Our Economic System is based on the un interrupted flow of money. Are you going to call the electric or water company and tell them Sorry I am sipping call back in six months when I get the flu shot and go back to work, and exactly how many Corps do you think will still be standing after six months of 100% financial losses because everyone is sipping.

I have a lot more of a dire outlook for what will happen should we face a true Pandemic with an above average CFR, even under 10%. When it comes to SIP there are a lot more questions than answers, and after having seen it from a different perspective I just don’t see a (Smile Be Happy) ending in a 100% SIP situation or even as low as 50% SIP situation.

The 2008 Financial Crisis (Collapse) if nothing else showed us all how vulnerable and dependant our economic system is on the cyclical monetary system (Isolation Is Not An Option)

In yet another perspective I have seen what the Super Wealthy are planning for.  A Close relative works directly for one of these individuals at a site that would be used in such an event or at least that's my impression. You would not believe this place. First it is tucked in a small mountain range with only one easy entry point (Armed to the teeth). Inside they have their own electrical generation, water system, sewer system, satellite & radio communication system, Fuel and transportation, machine/mechanic shop and a boatload of supplies. It is the preppers wet dream, and a pretty damn nice place to SIP. I have been there 3 times with relative who works at the site. The people who built this are a handful of the wealthiest families in the Country (Simply Amazing)

Anyway you get my drift I hope. I myself am planning to SIP and have put myself in a much better position to do so recently. On the other hand my wife works at a public school which throws a huge wrench in the whole thing. As we learned in the most recent event the single most effective way of slowing the spread of influenza (Closing Schools) was tossed as soon as the Chamber (Corps) put the pressure on even before a CFR could be established (I posted this on the board when it happened). They don't get very many sick days so not enough to cover a SIP. I am hoping any serious pandemic will not happen until after her retirement date (2yrs). She used to tell me she would keep working past that but in recent years with all of the teacher bashing and five consecutive years of paycuts and benefit losses she as are many at her school ready to just get out. If teacher bashers spent one week doing her job they wouldn't open their mouth again, but of course that will never happen as most of them are just pushing some agenda they have been paid to push.

I put a lot more emphasis on security when it comes to supplies and what to be prepped with. For example the list that was posted here, I would put guns and ammo up where the generator was. I can live without electricity it would be tough but do-able. I just recently purchased 4 tactical rifles and 4 hand guns for everyone in the house. All the same guns all take the same ammo. We go to the range either weekly or biweekly so everyone gets comfortable using the firearms safely and effectively. I think this will be the key to surviving a lengthily SIP in the environment I live in (Again Individual Circumstance). I just don’t see a lengthly SIP going down without a lot of turmoil and a probable collapse.

I have around a 90 day supply of basic needs stuff (Food-Water-Ect) with a plan to go to 180 when the time comes. I find one of the more difficult things is keeping everything cycled (Use and Re-buy). This keeps everything within usable dates. When I first started this I was buying a lot of stuff that I didn't need or wouldn't use on a 90 day turn. So I think its also important to buy things you actually will eat so your supply stays dated and you don't end up throwing a bunch of stuff away, takes a little work but well worth the effort. Wouldn't want to get in a SIP situation only to find out a lot of your stuff is dated and expired, then you will be worried about contamination of some sort. Or store stuff in containers that are not appropriate for storage. A good example is water, if your buying # 1 plastic bottles, they should not be stored for long periods so always purchase # 2, #4, or #5 plastics when storing water.

These are just my own opinions based on personal experience on the matter so please don’t take offense

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DANNYKELLEY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2012 at 1:52pm
Dont  take this wrong, But in the case of a major pandamic a lot of people dropping the last thing I would worry about is my mortgage payment.Or utilites.That would not even enter my mind.The safty  of the family is all I would be thinking about.And I would think the Gov. would want you to be in that frame of mind!! 
WHAT TO DO????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2012 at 8:09pm
Your mortgage should be consideration #1.  Otherwise, the banks will boot you out without any concerns on their part.  You may be forced to move in with relatives, friends, or sleep under a bridge somewhere.  If you think our government will care about people losing their homes, think again.  Millions of people are losing their homes right now & a pandemic will not change this.
 
Are your cell phone, internet, & cable TV charges worth more to you than saving for some extra mortgage payments when the time comes?  It's something to think about.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2012 at 9:12pm
Mahshadin, I read all of your statement with great interest. I will SIP but like most people will only be able to totally SIP for 6 months. I will have to go out for water if we are cut off. Unless you are one of those very wealthy families you spoke of we will all be exposed within a year.

This is why I brought up this topic so we can all learn. Your experience in the Corporation and the fact it will not shut down is because money is king and they will not give up profits. So people will die in a real pandemic.

You have made some great observations and I have learned much. Thank you.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2012 at 9:18pm
Elver you are correct banks have no heart nor do mortgage investors they will boot you out. It may take them a year but boot they will, just as they are doing now.

I pray that none of us will ever have to SIP but this discussion is great because it is making me think about what it will take for me to SIP.

I am not a pie in the sky type of person and I have thought alot about this subject and really needed some input as to what my friends on AFT were going to do at the time of "disaster".   It is better to address this now in a calm time so we can think straight when times get crazy.

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Jacksdad, I brought this subject up to decide WHEN to SIP. I will not give up on that because there may be a time when we have to do it. I am just in a quandry as to WHEN to SIP. I am trying to learn how others are making their decisions so it may help me on my process.

Yep, a lot has happened to me losing my DH was a huge change as well as being over 60 now my future is shorter. I still prep because I hope my son will carry on my prepping for his family just in case of a disaster. I try to gently train him as I purchase items and tell him why and what they are for and how to use the items. I have note books one for Water, Food, Medical, Sanitation, and a catch all note book.

So YES I will SIP and I believe in SIP my problem is WHEN!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2012 at 11:49am
FluMom - I do the same with my son. Without getting all doom and gloom, I try to explain why we have certain preps and how important it is not to be one of the unprepared. The recent So Cal blackout showed him how we were in a tiny minority when it came to basics like lighting. He still talks about it.

Mahshadin - absolutely no offense taken. Actually, I was worried I'd come over too strong with my post.

This is turning into a great thread, and I for one am learning and rethinking my preparations for isolating my family. Hopefully we'll all walk away with a more cohesive plan for a SIP. Thanks for starting it, FluMom

Okay - here's my take on what's been discussed so far. When to SIP is still something that I'd have to consider at the time based on what I was seeing globally and locally, and a lot of gut feeling. H5N1 has managed to stay one step ahead of us so far, and I'm not sure it'll follow any rules in the future. We typically expect to see two or three waves in any pandemic based on historical experience. The first wave is when the virus is getting used to us a host, the second is when it's fully adapted and inflicts the highest infection (CAR) and mortality (CFR ) rates, and the third is a last hoorah when most of the susceptible hosts have either died or developed immunity. Each lasts about three months and could be several months apart.

This is the pattern we saw in 1918 (three waves and 18 months duration) and 1957/1968 (two waves). 2009 wasn't as clear cut, and that could be because of modern population densities and travel patterns.

But we also have 1997. Many people don't know that H5N1 made the jump to humans from domesticated poultry in Hong Kong in May of that year, and by the time all poultry in the region had been slaughtered to stop it's spread, 18 people had been infected - some H2H - and six had died. No slow, doddering first wave while the virus mutated to better infect people - it hit the ground running and went straight to a 33% fatality rate. Those that died did so painfully and showing the same cytokine storm phenomenon that we hadn't seen since Spanish Flu 80 years before. We should all be very afraid of H5N1 - it's a monster of a virus.

When (not if) it jumps again and we don't manage to stop it, will we even see a first wave or will it throw the rule book out of the window and hit like a second wave right off the bat? We should probably keep it in mind when we prep, and last minute preps should be all the more important. SARS spread fast not because it was particularly virulent, but because of air travel - H5N1 could do the same and be seeded globally and spreading fast in days instead of months.

The length of a SIP is critical, but pandemics don't last for years and I think a virus like H5N1 may even burn through us faster than we've seen before. What will last for years is the social disruption. This thing has the potential of bringing us to our knees in many ways. If you catch it and survive, you'll be sicker than you've ever been and it'll be many weeks before you begin to recover. People will be too ill to work in large numbers, and social distancing will take a bigger bite out of the workforce. Imagine a bug that spreads as effortlessly as the flu we catch every year despite hand washing and vaccines, but is able to handpick it's victims from the bulk of the current workforce. It won't be the young and old that die in disproportionate numbers - it'll kill the healthy adults using their own immune system. Corporate planning will have no effect on the outcome, and as much as we like to think we're in control, a microscopic chunk of protein and RNA will hand us our butts on a plate. The suits will wish they'd listened to you, Mahshadin.

I unsuccessfully tried to find the reference, but when I first started prepping I came across something that talked of Governmental pandemic plans providing for a moratorium on rents and mortgages. If anyone has anything on the subject, please post it. The gist of it was that in the middle of a major pandemic, the last thing we'd need is a large proportion of the population becoming homeless and wandering the streets en masse. Realistically, if 10,20, maybe 50% of the world was too sick to bring in a paycheck or had no place of work because the power went out a month ago, would it be in anyone's interests to foreclose? Pouring gas on the fire would be an understatement.

Utilities are going to get hit hard so don't worry about paying the bill. No water, gas and electricity should be something that you're prepping for, because they won't be a given anymore once the virus is in your part of the world. Large numbers of people sick or avoiding work to stave off infection will hit all utilities, and it'll probably be a good while before they're available again. The last thing they'll be worried about is you not paying them for a service they probably can't provide anyway.

I'm not planning on a SIP for as long as a year. I don't have space for that many preps, and I don't think the deadliest wave will last that long (although I do worry that an immediate post pandemic world will have the necessities of life readily available). I do plan on a few months though, and I still have to pad my water supplies to get there. My big fear is panic and looting, and when that starts (and I absolutely think it would when the SHTF and people without preps began to get hungry) I'd be prepared if need be to protect my family and our preps any way I had to. Don't knock on the door if I don't know you...

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2012 at 1:50pm
Jacksdad, we need to revive the topic on "cytokine storm". What may work because I know I won't be taking my son to a hospital where there will be no help. I still have Sambucol in my basement.

LOL, my Dear Late Husband thought I was nuts until he was involved in higher government and found out the plans to bury thousands and what government knows. Why do you think wealthy famlies are planning bunkers they have connections and know what may come.

After that he built cabinets to hold all my preps!! So SIP is real and you are so correct that last minute preps are going to be very important!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2012 at 3:04pm
You should read about the top 10 worst plagues in history.
 
1770 Moscow Plague - "The city’s economy was mostly paralyzed because many factories, markets, stores, and administrative buildings had been closed down. All of this was followed by acute food shortages, causing deterioration of living conditions for the majority of the Muscovites. Dvoryane (Russian nobility) and well-off city dwellers left Moscow due to the plague outbreak."
 
The Great Plague of London (1665-1666) - "killed 75,000 to 100,000 people"
 
The 3rd Pandemic - began in the "Yunnan province (pictured above) in China in 1855"
"killed more than 12 million people"
 
The Black Plague from 1347 to 1351 - "The total number of deaths worldwide is estimated at 75 million people, approximately 25–50 million of which occurred in Europe. The plague is thought to have returned every generation with varying virulence and mortalities until the 1700s. During this period, more than 100 plague epidemics swept across Europe."
 
"Bubonic Plague was known as the Black Death and had been known in England for centuries. " The incubation period was 4-6 days.
"In June 6,137 people died, in July 17,036 people and at its peak in August, 31,159 people died. In all, 15% of the population perished during that terrible summer."
"At the end of World War One an influenza outbreak circled the world during 1918 - 1919. Within a year 20 million people had died world-wide."
 
Most people today are so wrapped up in their day to day lives that they don't have a clue as to how bad a pandemic can be.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2012 at 4:08pm
Interesting reading on the 10 most deadly...EEEEK. I know this is why we prep. My sister thinks I am really crazy and spending my money in a nutty way. Most people do not think anything bad can happen in this new age so they don't care.

At least I have done my best!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2012 at 8:19pm
Elver - good find. You're right about most people's perception of a pandemic. I've raised the issue with friends and colleagues and the responses range from "how bad can it be" to absolute blind faith in a medical system hopelessly outgunned from the start. It's such a leap to imagine a global economy struggling to survive during a pandemic that most people can't do it. That's why preppers are in the minority.


"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2012 at 9:48pm
A few years ago I was talking with a co-worker about a possible pandemic.  She said she wasn't worried because our health care today is a lot better than what it was years ago.
 
That about sums up the ignorance of most people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2012 at 10:16pm
Yep - that's the response that I've heard a lot.

If you become infected with H5N1 about your only chance of surviving is early treatment with Tamiflu and being put on a respirator. With about 100,000 respirators in the whole of the US and three quarters in use at any given time, you'd better catch it quick or there'll be a long line. And that's assuming that Tamiflu isn't in short supply by that time anyway. We're no better equipped to deal with a major flu pandemic than they were in 1918 simply because there will be many, many more people needing intensive care than there are hospital beds to put them in.

I used to work in EMS and it wouldn't take much - a single mass casualty with a couple of dozen victims, a rough seasonal flu outbreak, or even a busy Friday/Saturday night on a holiday weekend - and hospitals would go on bypass because they were swamped. Throw ten, twenty, a hundred times more really sick people into the mix and you'll see the healthcare system overwhelmed in no time flat. We've cut back so much and eradicated any excess capacity on the advice of the bean counters that we've painted ourselves into a corner with this one. Scary
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2012 at 6:43am
I will SIP when the H5N1 cluster gets to 100 people - a chain of 100 is the sign the pandemic will launch within days so thats the time to shut the gates
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DANNYKELLEY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2012 at 1:51pm
Agreed!!!
WHAT TO DO????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2012 at 10:06pm
How will we know when there is a cluster of 100 people? The government or media will not tell us.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2012 at 10:43pm
Forget about H5N1 for a moment.  Ponder the idea of having to sit in place after our currency collapses & pandemonium breaks out everywhere.  This may come sooner than you think.  Our national debt is horrific & totally unsustainable.  See usdebtclock.org
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2012 at 11:53pm
Dang Elver, I am spending lots of money getting our 2 Bug Out Bags ready. I just purchased two backpacks that hold LOTS. I just need two tents, two sleeping bags, two knives, one radio, and a couple of cheap items and I am ready to put it together!

I am really getting the BOB ready because my teen is going to college in the fall and I want to make sure he can get home! Or if he gets stuck on his way home I can take off with my BOB and get him.

I really don't worry about H5N1 too much it is like you said currency collapse or some other disaster. I really do not ever want to have to leave my home but I want to be ready.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Suzi15 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2012 at 7:19am
I know I should prepare bug out bags but have not. We are so rural the next place would be an underground bunker in the woods. Which we do not have. I have thought about digging one but do not have a good place. I want to go into a hill not straight down. I am also afraid of a cave in. My relatives already think I am crazy. After seeing all the Nat Geo programs I realize I am not prepared food-wise. I would like to start a new food reserve and put it underground, vacume sealed and stored in 5 gallon buckets so the temp will stay low and constant.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2012 at 4:59pm
Ok, so I have spent a bloody large amount of money for our BOBs but I know it will be money well spent in the end. At least I will have peace of mind that my kid can even walk home from college if necessary.

I hope we never have to use these bags!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vmd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2012 at 10:28pm
I was thinking that a gauge would be the reaction of governments (local and national) and when the lies start to fly. When they start passing out the cheap surgical masks and telling people to go on with life as usual. When things stop adding up. I think that up to the last minute 'Corp' will want people working abd spending. Like when Pres. Bush said that 'if we stop shopping and traveling the terrorist win'. Any semblance of truth will be spun within an inch of it's life. We'll feel its hot breth on our necks and then we'll know.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Evergreen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2012 at 9:27am
Don't take this the wrong way.....   I don't think it is a good idea to wait for the government to "tell" us when to SIP. I would caution anyone about letting the government do our thinking for us. Use your own observation, experience and intuition. If you wait for the government to tell you to SIP, it's probably too late for you. Read info on government eugenics agenda. Not pretty. Love ya, D
235365 - Energy follows thought.   As you think, so you are.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote edprof Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 29 2012 at 5:03pm
Frankly I rate the economic conditions as a higher concern than the flu.  Not that the flu couldn't happen.  Not that avian flu couldn't happen, or be made worse, by the recession/depression.

Oftentimes the Lord helps those who help themselves.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 29 2012 at 9:46pm
You can say that again edprof! We are in bad shape but to listen to NBC, CBS or ABC everything is just great1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DANNYKELLEY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 30 2012 at 1:23pm
I have had my little diner for alittle over 30yrs ,I have never seen it this bad and I have never seen it so hard to get a loan. the cost of Everything is getting  higher and it is getting harder to make a buck!!!The flu maybe the least of our worrys. 
WHAT TO DO????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 30 2012 at 1:27pm
Although, I chose the first response of: hearing it spreading on the web, it's more of when I'd start contemplating the scenario of SIP. I'm not too sure when I'd SIP, depends on the situation I guess, but at least by 20% death rate at the latest, 10% ideal. Next school year, I'll be living in a one bedroom/one bathroom apartment (525 sq.ft) with my dog and with constant visits from my bf, as he lives pretty close to me. I was wondering would it be good to prep for two and a dog (since I'm sure I'll see him just about every couple of days) ? or just me and my dog (she's a smaller dog: miniature schnauzer/chihuahua mix). As nice as it'd be to go home from school in that sort of event, I live 7 hours away from home without traffic, which is a little under/over 400 miles away depending on the route of travel. California is too big, going from school in the South to home in the North. I am not too worried about work because I have financial aid, and the only work I really do is work study. I also study close quarters combat with kendo, and starting this year, Aikido. Only real worry is school, but they would probably shut it down because we have had health scares on campus these past couple years; swine flu, a year or two back and TB, this year.
Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 30 2012 at 7:17pm
Hey hachiban! Always prep for others because you will have them no matter what you do. I store extra rice and beans for friends and they will show up. I always stored extra dog food. At Petsmart or Petco you can get storage containers that keep food bug free and water proof. They are stackable and I kept enough food for my dog for one year. My little dog went through 36 pounds of dry food in 12 months.

Good to see you back how are you doing Hachi?

FluMom
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 30 2012 at 9:18pm
Hi FluMom! It has been a while, hasn't it?! I've been ghosting lately because I have had a very busy school year this year, too many projects and whatnot. Thanks for the advice, I'll prep for him as well. I just recently got a credit-card but I think I'll only use it for purchasing preps and food. Have you heard of those water brick things? Do you think they are worth it? Wow! That isn't too bad! We have to buy our 3 dogs 20lbs bags of food every month because the biggest one eats so much. We have one female pitbul (she acts like a spoiled baby, such a softy), a jack russel/chihuahua mix (he prefers snacks lol) and the mini schnauzer/chihuahua mix,(she's the one I'm taking with me, she takes a few kernels at a time to eat).

I've been doing good, one more year of college left, until I either look for a job or try to get into a medical postbacclaurate program. Whichever happens first. How have you been? :)

Hachi
Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 31 2012 at 9:25pm
Hachi, get the cube4water: http://www.cube4water.com/cube_emergencies.htm

These are easy to store I have one emergency pack and it takes up only a 3'X3'X3' space for 18 - 5 gallon containers. Take a look at it. You have to go to one of their distributors now. I bought direct years ago. I have mine stored in my storage shed along with tons of toilet paper...LOL!

Space is always a huge consideration and this water stoage is great. I am going to purchase one more box and get the hand washing spigots. Looks like it might be nice to have.

Hachi, take some advice from an old woman...do not use a credit card unless you can pay it off EVERY MONTH! Being in debt is worse than anything and it is hard to get out of... I know. I pay cash for everything. Sure I charge but I pay it off in full every month.

About the dogs they will have to do with 1/2 rations if things get bad. Two reasons, one is they will be less active and less poop for you to deal with. Just a fact of life.

I have been fine, just working and getting my kid ready to go to college. I have made BOB for both of us so that he can get home on his own without a car if need be and for me just in case I ever need to leave the house. I always think in the worst case so no surprises.

Life goes on!
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