Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Strike and Mortality rates |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Posted: April 21 2013 at 2:34am |
Once a novel virus goes pandemic the things to look for is the strike rate and the mortality rate.
The strike rate is the percentage of the population who become infected. This is usually around 25% with a novel virus because people have no immunity to that virus. Then of the people infected, there is the rate of mortality - RoM. This means the percentage of people who die from the new virus. So far we have 96 people infected and 18 dead, which is a RoM of about 19% but, and this is a big but, there are 71 people hospitalised and this is disturbing for 2 reasons: 1 in a pandemic the health system would collapse and the RoM would be much higher. 2 the number of cases will rise and the health system will collapse and how many of the 71 hospitalised will die and would have died with no medical treatment? Time will tell. good luck everyone - this is it |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Absolutely right, Kilt.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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i was thinking the very same thing, yes Kilt ,this could be IT,71 people on ventilators, once
it starts to spread, there wont be enough , and as you say the Death rate will increase, i think some people in China have an immunity, because they live so closely with there animals when it breaks out of China i think we will see the Death rate surge |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Not to change the subject, but the one thing that sets this site aside from all the other blogs, forums, etc.... not only are we the watch dogs of the next pandemic here, as well as posting news and information, but this site's primary goal is to get people through a severe pandemic and ensuring that as many people as possible survive such an event. I can assure you, this site will go far beyond just tracking and posting news.
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BWF
Valued Member Joined: April 10 2013 Location: Baton Rouge Status: Offline Points: 1 |
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Since this virus has progressed across China "under the radar", how likely is it that it has already spread beyond China? |
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nijack
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 16 2013 Location: Michigan Status: Offline Points: 88 |
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I think we are all waiting to see if this spreads beyond China as that will be our "Oh sh**" moment. I'm surprised that no neighboring countries have reported any cases yet...even among a chinese national traveling to their country. We may have some time before this spreads efficiently and pops up elsewhere. I'm hoping that doesn't happen and it continues what appears to be limited ability to be transmitted h2h. Time , unfortunately, will tell...
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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We might be looking at the very beginnings of a first wave. Spanish Flu started in Kansas at about this time in 1918, but the deadly second wave didn't appear until the fall. With today's population densities, and the way this virus is acting, I'm not sure any historical lessons are particularly valid when predicting if it'll go pandemic, how fast, and how lethal it could potentially be. We'll know soon enough though, I'm guessing.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Suzi16
V.I.P. Member Joined: December 01 2012 Status: Offline Points: 55 |
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Check out the google map on another thread. Every time there is a new case reported I check to see if it is outside of the big group around Shanghi. They are not. If China is hiding info in addition to just numbers, cases outside Shanghi would be how I'd do it.
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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102 infected 20 dead
more of both to come I think http://tuoitrenews.vn/international/8943/20-dead-from-china-bird-flu-state-media |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Iowa102
Adviser Group Joined: May 08 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 227 |
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Looking at the numbers from a different perspective; If you take the number of people who have been infected, subtract the dead and hospitalized, so far we have about 7% of those infected that have lived through it. That's much worse than H5N1.
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Those who publicly blame an object for the user’s abuse are promoting irresponsible behavior.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Good point - the low recovery rate is what's concerning me more than anything right now.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Lets look at the USA
If the strike rate is 25% that's 92 million Americans infected. If the RoM remains at 20% thats 18.5 million Americans dead from the Flu. China and India are beyond the imagination and worst nightmares. The problem is that people will die of other stuff and starvation because the food and medical systems will break down and Law and order will break down. Hurricane Katrina is an example. |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Very true - in a major pandemic, everything would take a hit. Unlike 1918, we're not equipped to carry on as normal if the shelves run bare, and the lights go out. Scary thought.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Turboguy
Admin Group Joined: October 27 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6079 |
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Exactly right. China is notorious for trying to keep internal problems under wraps so they can cite the infallibility of communist rule. It's an absolute farce. My experience with them says that if they even let out that they're having a problem and that it is slowly spreading, in reality things are already way out of hand and its probably whipping around like wildfire. An even bigger question is what country is going to be next? |
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Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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North Korea is about the same distance from Beijing as the jump the virus made getting there from Shanghai. Of course, if it ended up in the DPRK we'd never be allowed to know about it.
Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia and the whole of southeast Asia must be getting very nervous right about now, as well as Pakistan and India. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Since we don't know the vector it is hard to say how it will spread.
If it is wild birds, then all neighbouring countries will be affected, with the timing dependant mostly on mirgation patterns (which I believe are currently shifting north). If it is in birds for human consumption, or in other animals (pigs) or if it is in people then the spread is likely to follow the trade routes. In the latter case it would more easily jump from Shanghai to Beijing than from Beijing to North Korea. I hope they soon find how this is being transmitted (then we might have a better idea of what is in store for us). |
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MelodyAtHome
Valued Member Joined: May 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2018 |
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Albert, I always feel better when I come here and see what is what. It is nice to have all this information all in one place and I know many of you folks have been here for a while and I know you are dedicated to getting news out and helping each other.
Hopefully, it never comes to a full blown pandemic but if it does, I'm sure we will all be here and continue to help each other however we can.
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Melody
Emergency Preparedness 911 http://emergencypreparedness911.blogspot.com/ |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Amen to that, Melody.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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