Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Are We Transitioning To MERS-COV Pandemic? |
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jdljr1
Admin Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1621 |
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Posted: May 20 2013 at 5:59pm |
This new article just E-mailed to me from CIDRAP upset me as it states how MERS-COV has now been found in EIGHT countries with the addition some of you have posted about in Tunisia, which also now includes H2H spread to that individual's relatives. I ask, does not this mean that we are all asleep in our denial, when in reality this is the first stage of PANDEMIC!
Coronavirus cases, deaths reported in Tunisia, Saudi ArabiaRobert Roos News Editor May 20, 2013 (CIDRAP News) – A media report today said the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has reached Tunisia, killing one man and infecting two of his relatives, while Saudi Arabia has reported another death and a new case since May 17. The Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) said today that a 66-year-old man with diabetes died of a MERS-CoV infection after returning from a trip to Saudi Arabia and Qatar and that two relatives tested positive for the virus. The relatives were improving with treatment, the story said. The man who died was hospitalized with an "acute respiratory condition" in the coastal city of Monastir after he returned home, according to KUNA. The story gave no other details, and the cases have not yet been recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO). If the KUNA report is accurate, Tunisia is the eighth country to be affected by MERS-CoV, along with Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the United Arab Emirates. All of the European cases have had direct or indirect links to the Middle East. Meanwhile, the WHO reported on May 18 a new MERS-CoV case in Saudi Arabia, involving an 81-year-old woman who is part of a hospital-centered case cluster in the Al-Ahsa region of Eastern province. Her illness increases the cluster to 22 cases, of which 9 have been fatal. Press reports have listed the Al-Moosa General Hospital in Hofuf as the site of the cluster. The 81-year-old was a patient in the facility from Apr 8 to 28 and was identified in the investigation of the outbreak there, the WHO said. She has "multiple coexisting medical conditions" and is in critical but stable condition. The statement gave no details on how she became infected or on her connections to other patients in the cluster. In more developments today, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Health (MOH) reported that a man with "chronic heart diseases, diabetes and high blood pressure, in addition to kidney failure," has died of MERS-CoV. The statement did not say whether his case had been reported previously or list other details such as his age or whether he was part of the hospital case cluster. An Arab News story today, however, said the man had been a patient at the hospital in Al-Ahsa. His death raised the MERS-CoV death toll in Saudi Arabia to 16, the MOH said. The Saudi MOH statement also said one healthcare worker who had been sick with the virus has recovered and been released from a hospital. Last week the WHO reported that two healthcare workers, a 45-year-old man and a 43-year-old woman, were part of the healthcare-related case cluster after catching the virus from patients. The MOH statement gave no other information on the worker who recovered. The WHO's May 18 statement put the global MERS-CoV count at that point at 41 cases with 20 deaths. The Tunisian cases and death and the Saudi Arabia death reported today apparently increase the count to 44 cases and 22 deaths (assuming the deceased Saudi Arabian's illness was reported previously). The novel virus has spread from person to person in healthcare facilities and in families but has not achieved sustained community transmission. Investigators have not been able to identify the virus's animal origin or exactly how it spreads. Also today, Saudi Arabian health officials asked the Arab Health Ministers Council to discuss MERS-CoV during its upcoming meeting, according to the Saudi Gazette. The council will meet during the World Health Assembly, the annual meeting of WHO member countries, which began today. And in other related news, officials at Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg said they can't provide samples of MERS-CoV to other labs, according to a CBC News story. The report said a material transfer agreement the national lab signed when it obtained the virus from a lab in the Netherlands forbids sending samples to other facilities |
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John L
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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This will be a close one John. It seems to be spreading fairly efficiently via human-to-human, and one (small) notch under sustained. Although, it may now have already achieved efficient-enough transmission to possibly cause a pandemic.
The U.S. definitely needs to be on the lookout for people traveling here from those effected countries, which seem to be accumulating. This could get interesting. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I agree - it's now in at least 8 countries so the chances of containment are minimal. It's just a matter of more efficient transmission and that's out of our hands.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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CStackDrPH
Valued Member Joined: April 21 2013 Status: Offline Points: 2308 |
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Very true, all. However, SARS-like CoV cause such severe disease so quickly that it tends to be considered more of a risk to health-care workers than the general public. SARS was crushed out despite having spread to many countries via air travel.
I'm keeping my eye on China....H7N9 has gone into "hiding". I'm not sure if the Chinese government is suppressing case reporting, or if their measures (banning live bird "wet markets") have temporarily suspended the infection cycle. It's in the ecosystem, so we'll see where it pops up next. Since H7N9 is low pathogenicity to fowl, it could end up very far in migratory waterfowl. Stay tuned. |
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CRS, DrPH
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Absolutely - H7N9 has dropped off everyone's radar thanks to China's irresponsible handling of the situation. I haven't heard the WHO praising their transparency lately, and with good reason. Without regular reporting, even AFT has little new to say about a virus that's undoubtedly still spreading and mutating behind the curtain that China has drawn. Stay tuned indeed - this hasn't gone away, despite China's attempts to make it look that way. It's likely endemic and practically undetectable.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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cyndi26
Valued Member Joined: April 14 2013 Status: Offline Points: 55 |
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Afternoon everyone--try and read everyone's post on a daily bases. Have been following corona virus since first case scary situation and the fact that we get very little info on corona and china outbreak. When Dustin Hayth died in Richmond Va last month after a trip to myrtle beach mysterious death they say but cannot find anymore info on his autopsy and cause of death I think there is alot more going on then we r being told which I feel we have the right to know before its to late and a pandemic happens> I so enjoy reading everyone's thoughts Stay safe out there
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cynmentzer26
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Hi Cyndi26, thanks for the post. Agreed jacksdad - most likely endemic.
We know that 36 have died, and 57 recovered, but we never heard about the other 38 still hospitalized. China most likely can't report the additional deaths, most of which probably died I'm assuming, as it will raise the overall fatality rate to alarming levels. Either way, by virtue of China not reporting on the "missing" 38 cases, that information along with a lot more is certainly being suppressed. The way China probably looks at it is that if it goes pandemic, it won't matter either way as there won't be a lot of people left around to blame them at the point - |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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If it goes pandemic, they're probably planning on "losing" a lot of suppressed information about deaths and infections in all the confusion while the rest of the world is counting it's dead. We'd probably never get to know the truth.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Regarding MERS, it seems to be a robust little bug in its beginning stage, with an increased fatality rate over SARS, with a potential future of a more sustained transmitted outcome.
Although we compare this to SARS, and it's potential to burn itself out, as mentioned, these are two distinctly different viruses. |
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Pixie
Admin Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 19668 |
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I guess Margaret Chan is happy with China. Excerpt from her address to world health assembly...
At the end of March this year, China reported the first-ever human infections with the H7N9 avian influenza virus. Within three weeks, more than 100 additional cases were confirmed. Although the source of human infection with the virus is not yet fully understood, the number of new cases dropped dramatically following the closing of live bird markets. I thank China for collecting and communicating such a wealth of information, and for collaborating so closely with WHO. Chinese officials have promptly traced, monitored, and tested thousands of patient contacts, including hundreds of health care workers |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Well, Margaret Chan being Chinese herself, what do we expect. We would probably have a lot more information if she wasn't at the helm. Good grief.
As she continues to praise China on their transparency (as the only one), still wondering whatever happened to the missing 38 cases hospitalized. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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The "SARS like" comparison is misleading a lot of people to assume that it'll go the same was as the 2003 outbreak, but with it's greatly increased mortality rate it's shown itself to be in a whole different league. I agree with Chuck about the rapid onset of symptoms with MERS infections and it's consequently heightened threat to healthcare workers as opposed to the general public. That's undoubtedly been limiting it's spread, but I'm not sure if it's anything more than a speed bump for this thing and we'll continue to see a slow but largely unstoppable march around the globe.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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debbiencusa
Adviser Group Joined: April 25 2013 Location: nc Status: Offline Points: 2100 |
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health care workers go home to families. i see zero reason to think that MERS would be anything less then a disaster. Then the health care workers families go to their various different schools and places to work. Another factor that will both negatively and positively effect the spread of the virus, with the record high unemployment those who have jobs are half dead before they miss work, no one wants to loose a job now. The good thing is with record unemployment the exposure to work place will not happen for a large part of the population.
Another thing to ponder, this whole alabama deal is going on and is just now announced right before one of the three summer holiday weekends, the official kick off to summer memorial day weekend, where crowds will assemble all over the country for concerts, nascar in the south, etc. Next week should see a big jump in numbers in the USA if this is here already.
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God Bless
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Loribearme
Adviser Group Joined: September 06 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2542 |
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just a matter of time til our military get it and bring it home
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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It's definitely time to consider imposing travel restrictions with the Middle East, but of course that's the WHO's area and they are always more concerned with being politically right than doing the right thing - regarding world health issues.
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nc_girl
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 19 2006 Location: NC Status: Offline Points: 3968 |
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well, summer school for colleges will be starting up in a couple of weeks so all those middle eastern students will be returning or coming over for the first time. If some are infected.... here it comes.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Very true nc_girl. My guess is that Canada will report their first case very soon, followed by the U.S.
When that happens, it's time to prepare. We will also consider going to phase 5 at that time. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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The WHO revamped their pandemic alert phases awhile ago, but when they go to level 4, a pandemic is most likely imminent. Of course we base ours on the overall threat level, with many factors considered. The WHO's pandemic alert level makes it a little confusing as 5-6 and six are the same and level 5 being obsolete.
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cyndi26
Valued Member Joined: April 14 2013 Status: Offline Points: 55 |
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Hi Albert, wanted to tell u last yr my mom became really sick could not catch her breath, fever chills was in Chambersburg hospital in Pa was given a huge amount of antibiotics and was put on oxygen doctors claimed she would need to b on oxygen the rest of her life!! One month later she was back to herself no oxygen needed r ???? were never answered on what she had and how she recovered Meanwhile 3 other cases happened one which was a friend to my mom was in intensive care for 2wks she recovered my point is that I believe that this virus either one has been here and overlooked or kept quiet!! Went to Hershey hospital last wk a lot of people sick was with a friend who needed test but had such a fear in me just wanted to run out of there most friends think I have lost my mind and should not worry about things I cannot control Its nice to share thoughts on this site thanks for listening B safe
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cynmentzer26
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Albert
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Good job Cyndi, I don't believe in c02 machines and being weak. Her lungs would weaken and the muscles would forget to work on their own. Keep the old folk strong.
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tigerpanzer
Valued Member Joined: April 30 2013 Status: Offline Points: 160 |
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Albert,
My thinking on this is that the Chinese are lying and that sooner or later they will just have to admit to the world that they are wrong. The corona virus is really baffling. It does remind me of something that was at Plum Island in the 1980's among rabbits and sheep. The virus killed quickly and was massive and was out of the middle east somewhere. I am worried about a twin pandemic. Two pandemics at once would be the perfect storm. My own feeling is that the next three months are going to make or break this pandemic factory. High gas prices , people being squeezed by Obama care and the rise of managed care systems are going to weaken the public's ability to deal with the incoming storm. Therefore, we must prep like there is no tomorrow. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Well said Komet.
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