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Mysterious illness kills 4 in Texas

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Kyle View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kyle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2013 at 4:41pm

Health officials say 6 deaths linked to H1N1



HOUSTON – Health officials say there have been six confirmed deaths from H1N1 in the Houston area recently, KVUE's sister station KHOU confirmed Thursday afternoon.






 Health Officials Warn Of Aggressive Flu

Lacey Sanders of the Bell County Public Health District said this week alone 146 confirmed cases of flu have been reported and of those 60 involve the H1N1 virus.

Nine people have been hospitalized since last week and health officials are investigating the death of an adult in Holland that may be related to the illness, she said.

In McLennan County the numbers are higher.

The Waco-McLennan County Public Health District reported 29 cases three weeks ago, 113 more cases two weeks ago and 344 cases last week.

Kelly Craine with the McLennan County Public Health District said the same spike is being reported around the state and the country, but said health officials haven’t seen a comparable increase in H1N1 cases since 2009.

Both Craine and Sanders said this year the illness is more aggressive and is spreading more quickly.

Craine said it's still not too late to get a flu shot.

Health officials say in particular that pregnant women, the elderly, and children should be vaccinated.

In 2009, the last time H1N1 was a major problem, some pregnant women across the country checked into hospitals to have their babies, but never left because they passed away after contracting the illness which can cause major complications, Craine said.

Sanders said the flu shot requires about two weeks for the body to build immunity against the illness and the flu mist requires about a week.


http://www.kwtx.com/home/headlines/Local-Health-Officials-Warn-Of-Aggressive-Flu-236636521.html?ref=521



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LOPPER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2013 at 7:16pm
Looks like those who got H1N1 the last go round may have gotten lucky as this time around it looks to be more virulent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2013 at 7:30pm
Could be Lopper.  It does seem quite a bit more virulent.    6 dead, 14 critically ill in Houston.  Well, let's just say I wouldn't want to live in Houston right now.   Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2013 at 8:30pm
Craine said it's still not too late to get a flu shot.

OK, I am confused did someone say that H1N1 is NOT in this years flu vaccine?

Why bother with a flu shot if H1N1 is NOT in the shot?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2013 at 9:35pm
FluMom - the 2013/2014 flu vaccine protects against one strain each of H3N2 and H1N1, and at least one influenza B strain (two in the case of the quadrivalent vaccine)

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/vaccine/general.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CStackDrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2013 at 10:26pm
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Craine said it's still not too late to get a flu shot.

OK, I am confused did someone say that H1N1 is NOT in this years flu vaccine?

Why bother with a flu shot if H1N1 is NOT in the shot?

FluMom, please get this year's vaccine for yourself and your family.  

It's always a roll of the dice if they selected the exact strain, but usually the folks who grow the stuff do a really good job.  

It's likely that the circulating H1N1 has picked up some "nasty bits" of RNA in the wild while circulating around the globe since April 2009, I'll see if I can find any papers on this.   It was a nasty, fierce pandemic strain with much higher mortality than first estimated as we all know.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2013 at 11:22pm
New to this.. I've been deep on H7N9. Wow H1N1 has really come out with a bang. Does it have the hallmarks of pandemic?

Is it confirmed Human to human?? ( i know swine is very similar receptors)
Has anyone calculated out R? (seems there are a lot asymptomatic)
could there be a host species involved?

These are all important with predicting a pandemic.

I see we have had some family and friends on the site do they have anymore input as to infection source or if others are getting sick.

What happened to lilly?  I hope she's okay

PS: H7N9 is also just about to explode in China!!! Lucky its not Human to Human so its still isolated, but they will suffer a massive toll.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2013 at 11:28pm
Chuck - it's scary how much nasty RNA is out there now. There are altogether too many flu strains circulating for us to keep dodging a major pandemic bullet for long. An extremely efficient H2H strain of H1N1 is out there at the same time as a fledgling virus like H7N9, and let's not forget the grandaddy of them all, H5N1, which is experiencing a resurgence in Cambodia.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 5:14am
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:



Does it have the hallmarks of pandemic?



In 2009 it started fairly close the same area as it is now, but of course a little more south in Mexico.  All and all, not too far apart geographically.  in 2009 it reached California and New York within just a few days of the outbreak via air travel, and of course there's a lot of travel going out of Houston, especially with holiday travel right now.  Lots of people getting together for the holidays.  If it is transmitting efficiently, you would think we would see cases once again in CA and NY in the next day or two, but with probably a more severe outcome.    


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 6:45am
According this article we are in fact dealing with an h1n1 variant,

http://www.keyetv.com/news/features/top-stories/stories/h1n1-making-its-way-through-texas-15093.shtml
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 7:07am
Here's the article:

H1N1 Making Its Way Through Texas Updated: Thursday, December 19 2013, 06:24 PM CST Flu is serious stuff. The Centers for Disease Control says it kills an average of 26-thousand Americans every year. Here in Texas the number of flu cases typically peaks in January or February. But it looks like we're off to an early start. Dr. Matt Robinson, an infectious disease doctor with St. David's South Austin Medical Center says the the most severe cases that we're seeing right now are a variant of the H1N1 flu we saw in 2009 which has a tendency to cause he terms, "very severe disease." Dr. robinson adds, "It's actually the one we're seeing the most severe disease in right now. It's widespread here in Texas and a few other states particularly in the Southeast. But it has the potential to cause very serious disease in otherwise relatively young and relatively healthy people." So what can we do to stay healthy? Health experts recommend you get a flu shot if you haven't received one this year. Colleen Christian, a health educator with St. Johns Neighborhood Clinic says, "It takes about 2 weeks for the vaccine to work in your body. So that's going to give you some good protection through the height of the flu season which we normally see in January and into the month of February." And Dr. Robinson says there's another reason to get the shot this year in particular. He says the vaccine does contain this strain that's circulating so it's a good match this year. He also notes that none of the patients he's seen recently who were suffering from the flu had been immumized. By Fred Cantu

Read More at: http://www.keyetv.com/news/features/top-stories/stories/h1n1-making-its-way-through-texas-15093.shtml
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 7:15am
These are just a few headlines on Goggle News tody!

Austin doctors see spike in flu cases
MyFox Austin-11 hours ago

Young Pasco County mother dies from swine flu
MyFox Tampa Bay-Dec 18, 2013

H1N1 cases confirmed in Alberta
Medicine Hat News-Dec 11, 2013

H1N1 among flu strains in London area: health unit
CTV News-Dec 18, 2013


First seasonal flu death reported in Weld County
9NEWS.com-Dec 4, 2013


Weld County is in Colorado.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 7:37am
Since we're most likely dealing with a swine flu variant, of which we may have no immunity, keep a close eye on how it spreads.  If it continues, we will consider going to defcon 5 over the coming days.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 7:41am
Yes, this may not be good at all..Albert,am I correct at stating this? Seems like a high death rate at the start..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 7:49am
Hi Coyote, it does seem quite a bit higher.  A lot higher than what we saw in 2009. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kyle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 8:08am
I haven't gotten a vaccine this year. I have a medical condition and I'm afraid it might get me sick. Should I reconsider getting the vaccine?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 8:14am
I would say yes Kyle, especially if you have an underlying medical condition.  Consult your physician first if need be, but whatever the case, at the moment the general public has no idea what's happening so now is a good time to sneak it in if you decide to do so.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 8:27am
So far there seems to be one genuine cluster. 

This is very confusing there seems to be thousands of H1N1 reports, but something different about the most recent cases, its more virulent. Also they aren't being picked up with the normal tests. 

This is very cloudy. I haven't experienced this with other viruses. It really makes it difficult to understand what is going on. The way we will know for sure, is this pops up in other remote locations and kills in clusters.  

Not quite time to hit the panic button

also. There was a similar outbreak a few months back. 




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 8:52am

Flu-like activity increasing in Houston and Texas

By Lora Hines | December 19, 2013 | Updated: December 20, 2013 1:04am
  • Texas public health officials say every region of the state, including Montgomery and Harris counties, is seeing intense flu activity this season, which could result, as in past years, in at least several hundred deaths.

In Harris County, hospital emergency room visits for flu-like symptoms are at a five-year high.

Christine Mann, spokeswoman for the Texas Department of State Health Services, said Thursday her agency is aware of suspected flu cases that Montgomery County public health officials are investigating. She said the county is sending specimens to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta for more extensive testing and confirmation.

"We'll wait and see what they find," Mann said, adding that the H1N1 virus, formerly known as swine flu, is the predominant strain this season, which started in September and typically runs until spring.

On Thursday, Montgomery County officials confirmed their second case of H1N1 virus. The unidentified patient is being treated at an area hospital, spokeswoman Jennifer Nichols-Contella said in a written statement. Tests are to be performed on six other cases, including the deaths of four people who suffered flu-like symptoms.

"The Montgomery County Public Health District is coordinating with regional and state resources to manage the case investigations," Nichols-Contella said.

Meanwhile, Mann stressed that the state is in the middle of flu season. So it's typical, she noted, for hospitals and doctors this time of year to see many cases.

"We don't even think we're at the peak," she said. "It's not unexpected."

Mann said there's no way to know how many people have died because flu cases are not required to be reported unless they involve children. No children have died so far this flu season in Texas.

Deaths every year

The Centers for Disease Control estimates between 3,300 and 49,000 people nationwide die every year as a result of the flu. Mann said state officials estimate Texans would make up between 8 percent and 10 percent of that total.

"We do expect there to be deaths every year from the flu," she said. "How many? We don't know."

Her agency's most recent flu data shows that an increasing number of people are going to hospitals and doctors with flu-like symptoms. Of the nearly 1,700 specimens tested, about 320 were positive for flu. Almost all the positive specimens were confirmed as H1N1.

Houston and Harris County officials and doctors agreed the area is in the middle of an intense flu season, with more than 200 cases confirmed at one Houston hospital, and more expected to be reported. Rita Obey, spokeswoman for Harris County Public Health and Environmental Services, said the hospitals in her agency's jurisdiction are reporting many flu cases, but nothing out of the ordinary.

"We're in the heart of flu season," she said. "There is nothing unusual about this."

Increase in ER visits

The most recent data for Houston and Harris County shows high flu activity, with the number of positive tests performed by Houston's Bureau of Laboratory Services increasing. Of the 33 tests performed last week, 14 were positive for flu. Almost all were confirmed as influenza A, of which H1N1 is a subtype.

So far, the bureau has tested 264 specimens. Of the 89 positive results, the H1N1 virus accounted for 78 cases.

Visits this month to hospital emergency rooms for flu-like symptoms also were the highest reported in at least five years, according to the data.

Since Dec. 1, the Houston Methodist Hospital System has confirmed 225 flu cases, with about 90 percent of them found to be the H1N1 virus, said infectious disease specialist Dr. Richard Harris. At least one patient, who also suffered other medical problems, died, Harris said. He wouldn't reveal more details, citing patient confidentiality.

"We're in the middle of an epidemic here in Houston," Harris said. "This is the tip of the iceberg."

He said this season's vaccine is 60 percent effective in preventing the flu.

"You might still get the flu, but it will be a much more mild case," Harris said. "It's not too late to get vaccinated."

Not an epidemic

Dr. Luis Ostrosky, an infectious disease specialist at Memorial Hermann Hospital, said he also is seeing more flu cases, but wouldn't describe the situation as an epidemic. Twenty patients have been hospitalized with the flu since the beginning of the month. Ostrosky, who also is a professor at the UT Health Science Center, wouldn't say whether anyone has died.

Ostrosky said he thinks more people might be coming down with the flu this year because they didn't get vaccinated against it. He said the past couple of flu seasons were relatively mild and suspects many people probably became complacent about protecting themselves.

Jenn Blackmer Jacome, spokeswoman at Texas Children's Hospital, said many patients were being treated for flu-like symptoms. Six flu cases have been confirmed, she said.



http://www.chron.com/news/health/article/Flu-like-activity-increasing-in-Houston-and-Texas-5080273.php
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 9:34am
Texas Seeing Some of Highest Levels of Flu Activity in Country
December 20, 2013
http://www.click2houston.com/l...
Houston, Texas: Health officials in Montgomery County report that a ninth patient has come forward with flu-like symptoms similar to eight other cases reported earlier this week.
Of those nine, tests have confirmed two were infected with H1N1, the predominant flu strain being seen statewide. According to the Centers for Disease Control's latest surveillance, Texas is seeing some of the highest levels of flu activity in the country. H1N1 is the most common strain. Dr. Herbert L. DuPont with the University of Texas School of Public Health said its severity among young people makes H1N1 unique.

"All ages should get immunizations; not just the high risk population, not just the old people, but young, healthy people that typically don't think about the flu being a problem with them," said Dr. DuPont.
(snip)

"If you want to stay healthy, do two things, stay more than six feet away from people coughing and consider your hands contaminated when you touch things," said DuPont. DuPont said this year's flu vaccine does protect against H1N1.
(more)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 10:13am
I wonder if this is the same flu strain we had here in NZ 3 months ago? The doctors office told me we either had H1N1 or H3N2, both of which were showing up in a late rush (it was spring here).

What I can tell you is that friends of ours who had received the flu shot still got it really badly, and that it spread through our school very easily. I saw a friend at the supermarket yesterday whose three children have just come down with it in the last week, so it's still going around here even though we are in high summer and it's lovely and hot here.
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 10:16am
You guys with specialist medical knowledge, would it be possible for me to be tested  to see what flu I had back in Oct? How would they do that? I'd really like to know which flu we all had, particularly if there's a pandemic coming. Do I take it that if someone has already had H1N1 and recovered, that they are then immune from further strains? 
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 10:20am
This is from Washington State

Edited


First Flu Death in Thurston County Reported


Posted: Friday, December 20, 2013 9:08 am | Updated: 9:29 am, Fri Dec 20, 2013.

By the Nisqually Valley News | 0 comments

Thurston County health officials report a Thurston County man in his 50s is the first death in the county related to influenza. The man died from complications from the flu.

“It appears this person was otherwise healthy and didn’t have any of the typical risk factors, such as respiratory or heart problems," said Thurston County Health Officer Dr. Rachel Wood in a news release. "So his death is a tragic reminder that the flu is serious business and can even be deadly."

“We’re encouraging unvaccinated people of all ages to talk to their doctor about getting a flu vaccine,” Dr. Wood said. “Getting vaccinated helps you, but it also helps prevent the spread of the flu virus in the community. If you think you won’t catch the flu, think again. It’s not too late to get your flu vaccine.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LOPPER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 5:30pm
Well I haven't heard of any large numbers of people with the flu in Thurston County and I reside in it. I can say my girlfriend who resides in a neighboring county has the flu as I have been taking care of her for the last couple days, her symptoms are quite ordinary with just a moderate fever. I had the H1N1 flu strain in 2009 so I should be good to go if that is indeed what she has.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 6:15pm
I have had this years flu shot just wondering if it will do any good for this H1N1 variant.

We had had a ton of noro virus bunches of kids throwing up everywhere. Just glad we have Christmas vacation!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CStackDrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2013 at 10:57pm
A good buddy of mine in CDC confirmed that the Montgomery County mortalities are H1N1, nothing exotic.  

We worked on Legionnaire's Disease together back in the stone age.   

Legionella can be hard to confirm, but he had some choice words for the very rapid viral assays that hospitals depend upon.  

When you're dead, it doesn't matter much.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jdljr1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 21 2013 at 1:51am
     I am monitoring the issue of possible vaccine breakthrough as I see from another thread Albert is considering raising our DEFCON level within a few weeks, as I see the two issues as related.  I am seeing limited reports of vaccinated people getting very sick, but no evidence of full breakthrough as yet-remember the flu shot is a weak 60% vaccine even when it works.  I would definitely get it and you can enhance your odds of being part of that 60% greatly with such things as aerobic exercise within hours of the shot, also ginseng, garlic preparations.  These strategies have been shown to greatly increase antibody response.  My flu injection, is going to work.   
     Especially as Tamiflu breakthrough with strains in the Southern US IS DOCUMENTED, all new cases should be being put on Relenza, not Tamiflu.
     A known mutation called D225G makes H1N1 more lethal.  If this mutation is becoming universal now, again, a big problem leading us towards possible DEFCON 5 to come.  Best, John L.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 21 2013 at 5:02am
D2256 produces roughly double the viral load of the normal H1N1, which is why its more virulent. This gene mutation is thought to be similar to the mutation which happened to the 1918 spanish flu

read this study...

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20660098 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20660098

Keep your eyes open guys this could get very ugly very fast.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 21 2013 at 6:59am
D225G   typo :)
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So in Layman's terms, if we see significant cases involving the lower respiratory track we can assume D225G mutation is presenting and we can expect some very bad times.  Is that right?  You really get my attention when you mention 1918.
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Yeah in lay terms they tested H1N1 with mutant D255G on mice and found it to be more deadly. Its the same receptor as in the "Spanish Flu". Try a Google search D255G and Spanish flu. There's plenty of information.

There was a similar mutation in the Ukraine

http://www.examiner.com/article/d225g-swine-flu-mutation-same-receptor-as-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-found-ukraine-virus - http://www.examiner.com/article/d225g-swine-flu-mutation-same-receptor-as-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-found-ukraine-virus

Its a scary development but the virus has to spread to be a problem. Its the wait and see game. If more cluster develop in remote locations then we should get concerned.

The benefit we have over the old "Spanish Flu" times. Is vaccines, A level of community immunity and modern medicine. Etc etc.

Hopefully it doesn't spread 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OriginalHappyCamper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2013 at 6:29am
Austin Texas confirms first H1N1 death; another suspected

American-Statesman Staff
One person is dead in Travis County from H1N1 flu, and a second death is suspected of H1N1, the Austin/Travis County Health and Human Services Department announced today.

That is the same strain that killed nine here in 2009, when the swine flu was classified as a pandemic.

In Montgomery County, the deaths of four people from a flu-like illness are being investigated at Conroe Regional Medical Center. None of them had a flu shot, health officials said. Five others having a similar flu-like illness in Montgomery County are still living, and two of those were confirmed to have H1N1 flu, said Jennifer Nichols-Contella, a spokeswoman for the Montgomery County Public Health District. Investigations into all of those cases are continuing.

Officials are encouraging anyone six months and older to get a flu shot. The H1N1 strain is “a good match with this year’s vaccine,” said Dr. Phil Huang, medical director of the Austin/Travis County health department.

The health department is monitoring five other flu patients on life support in local hospitals, Huang said. Officials may never learn what killed the second person suspected of H1N1 because testing could not be done, Huang said.

Both of those patients died Thursday in local hospitals, he said.

He declined to give ages or other details because of patient confidentiality but said the two who died were under 65. Younger people also were more likely to die in 2009 from the H1N1 strain, unlike regular flu, which tends to kill the elderly.

This story has been edited to correct an error in an earlier version regarding what type of flu was a pandemic in 2009.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OriginalHappyCamper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2013 at 6:38am
HOUSTON (KTRK) -- We have a health alert regarding flu season. Harris County authorities confirm three men have died from H1N1. And now the Texas Department of Health has issued a state-wide alert.

It's usually the very young or the elderly who are at risk. But the recent victims are all males, ages 45, 50 and 53 years old. Two of them had underlying health conditions, including obesity and hypertensive cardiovascular disease.

Houston is in Harris County and Conroe is in Montgomery County so it looks these are different victims.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2013 at 7:48am
We have been discussing the similarities between  H1N1 (D226G) and the Spanish Flu.

Your comment that healthy adults are dying parallels the Spanish Flu, which was well known for this phenomenon . Its because of a reaction called a cytokine storm where your bodies immune system overreacts and attacks its self.

Spanish flu was also H1N1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2013 at 8:26am
What we have in our favor is herd immunity to H1N1. When it struck in 1918 nobody had antibodies because it was a completely novel virus in humans. It'll never hit us as hard as it did back then, but it could certainly start another minor pandemic. Or worse still, it could reassort with a virus like H7N9 or H5N1 and impart efficient H2H transmission and spark a major pandemic.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2013 at 8:37am
We have to see how H1N1 developes. A mix with MERS is "not welcome". Sequences and more data are needed. D225G and H274Y are bad news. Also reports of people who died while vaccinated is bad news. It is to early to say how things will go. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2013 at 11:27am
To Anyone,how many people have died,this year, from H1N1 or it's mutation? Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2013 at 11:47am
Josh - if you mean H1N1 reassorting with MERS, they're different viruses and that shouldn't happen in theory. Reassorting with another flu virus and producing a novel strain is a bigger concern. H7N9, H5N1, H5N2, H6N1 and H10N8 all need the genetic material that allows H1N1 to spread efficiently, and simply coinfecting the same host could do that instantly.
If you mean catching H1N1 and MERS at the same time, it would depend on which one was less prevalent as to the odds of that happening. If one was widespread and the other wasn't, the odds of being infected with both at the same time would be lessened.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2013 at 9:09pm
So absolutely anyone could be a human petrie dish! The trouble is that the more they spread the higher the chance of that happening.
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2013 at 11:40pm
jacksdad, what I mean is H1N1 with co-infections, a "mega-mix". Some of those other virusses/bacteria would not form a danger in itself but in combination with H1N1 could find "new feedinggrounds". 

I wonder if H1N1 is doing anything with animals. If pets, birds etc. can spread H1N1 (or another dissease in combination with H1N1) it makes a bigger problem. I follow H.Niman on his sites for more specific information. Google Flu Trends also gives some indication on developments. 

With over a million people crossing the Atlantic daily it will only be a matter of days before a widespread virus from one side of the ocean reaches the other side. We are all in the same boat !

Welcoming 2014 on Times Square, Trafalgar Square or other mass gatherings might not be the best idea. Social distancing proberbly sounds wiser. If vaccination does not cover the H1N1-2013 virus it is a big problem !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2013 at 7:21am
Hi Dutch, where's the reference to people dying when already vaccinated?  I couldn't find it

I've actually heard the opposite. (willing to be proven wrong) H1N1 vaccines is said to be effective against the latest variant. 

I suggest anyone close to the outbreak to seriously consider getting vaccinated as a precaution. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2013 at 8:11am
That's what I figured, Josh. Many deaths from severe flu strains aren't necessarily caused by the virus itself, but by secondary infections - bacterial pneumonia is a big concern in patients with infections deep in the lungs as opposed to the upper airway.
BTW - as doom laden as some of the posts on AFT get at times, Recombinomics has been known to predict some pretty extreme things that never panned out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2013 at 8:38am
cobber: 

Jade4now wrote:
Hello Dr Niman,

I know you are busy, but just wanted to know, if you had the H1N1 flu in 2009, would you therefore be immune this time around (excluding that mutation (starts with a D) that associates with severe cases? 

Thanks

The latest sequences have not been released yet, but the dramatic increase in H1N1 suggests it has evolved far enough away from the 2009 version to re-infect those infected in 2009. It causes more than 95% of influenza cases in the US, and that number goes up each week, suggesting it is infecting those infected in 2009 (as well as some who were vaccinated this year - with a vaccine that uses the 2009 sequence).

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jacksdad, I did read something (somewere) about co-infections and H1N1 in recent cases.  If I find a link I post it. Also about H1N1 in Mexico with lots of similarities. (there is so much information on the net !)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2013 at 11:20am
jacksdad, I subscribe to a yahoo service that notifies me when different topics are on the internet."Yahoo Alerts for Avian Flu" is what I am notified of. 50 researchers in Europe just called for a meeting to discuss the people who are experimenting with ways to make dangerous viruses more deadly. I think that we have all believed this has been going on for sometime. But some one must have gotten scarred and asked  publicly for the meeting. I suspect that all countries  and large corps. are all doing this. Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2013 at 2:00pm
Johnray1 - "12 Monkeys" springs to mind after reading your post... Shocked
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