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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Chinese Holiday begins 31st January

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Chinese Holiday begins 31st January
    Posted: January 12 2014 at 8:57am
The Chinese New Year celebration begins January 31st through February 14th.

This is the largest public holiday in China with most Public institutions closed for the first week and many businesses either closed or with skeleton staff as people gather with family and friends for traditional meals, festivals, religious gatherings, street celebrations, ect. Many people travel from outside china to major cities for the festivities as well as many within the country traveling to home towns for family celebrations.

With the current Bird Flu outbreaks (H5N1-H7N9) happening around the country this will possibly be the kick start of major epidemic if there are mutations that can spread H2H.

I have a relative (Brothers Wife) who is going to Shenzhen City and then Beijing during this time and then back to US when finished. I wonder how many people from around the globe will travel to China this year for this annual event also called (Spring Festival).

I guess well find out if it is H2H soon enough!!!













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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2014 at 4:53am
Xinhua Insight: Bird flu epidemic overshadows Chinese New Year
Jan 15,2014
by Xinhua writers Hu Tao, Zhang Le


ZHEJIANG, Jan. 15 (Xinhua) -- As millions of Chinese prepare to return to their hometowns for Spring Festival, the challenges of containing the latest H7N9 bird flu epidemic have come sharply into focus.

Health authorities are deeply concerned by the resurgent epidemic, with about twenty new cases reported in the first two weeks of 2014, mostly in eastern costal regions. About 150 cases of H7N9 bird flu have been confirmed in China since the first case in March last year.

The virus is more active in winter and spring, and high density transportation in coaches, trains and aircraft could create "favorable circumstances" for the epidemic to spread, according to Li Lanjuan of the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

Li is China's leading researcher on bird flu and a member of the H7N9 prevention and control group. She warns that the virus might be spread by migrants returning to their, mainly rural, homes from developed eastern regions.


TRAVEL RUSH

During the world' s biggest annual human migration in the 40 days around Spring Festival, about 3.62 billion trips will be made this year, according to Tuesday's National Development and Reform Commission press release.

This year, the highlight of Spring Festival, Chinese Lunar New Year, falls on Jan. 31. It is the most important Chinese occasion for family reunions.

"We are worried about the risk brought by massive numbers of people gathering together in confined spaces," said Dr. Liang Weifeng of the medical college at Zhejiang University.

In Zhejiang, new H7N9 cases have been reported for six consecutive days. As of Tuesday, the eastern province had reported a total of eleven, including some fatalities. Zhejiang was also the site of China's first confirmed human-to-human transmission last November, when a man was infected while caring for his father-in-law.

More alarming still, Guizhou Province in the remote southwest of the country confirmed its first H7N9 fatality on Saturday; that of a migrant worker who returned from Zhejiang on Jan.4.



NEW H7N9 SCIENTIFIC RESULTS

Results of research by a Chinese team published in the Lancet, have established that variation of an amino acid on the H7 gene has made the H7N9 strain more infectious to mammals.

"On the PB2 gene, we have found another variation in a key amino acid. One more variation of a specified amino acid, and human-to-human transmission will become much more likely," said Liang, indicating his extremely high concern over the possibility.

The team recently identified a new partial variation in the virus, demonstrating its capacity to adapt to its environment.

"It has increased the risk of human-to-human transmission and brought more difficulty in treatment," Liang added.

"In spite of this, there is no reason to panic. We can confirm that the H7N9 flu virus has not shown scaled variation and human-to-human transmission," said Gao Hainyu, a member of the team drafting a thesis on the new results.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kyle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2014 at 8:21am
Chinese New Year Threatened by Increasing Spread of Birth Flu Virus

The resurgent bird flu epidemic is threatening the New Year festivities in China, as thousands prepare to return to their hometowns for the spring festival.

In the first week of 2014 itself, the Chinese Health authorities have found 20 new cases of H7N9 bird flu, in the eastern coastal regions. Since March 2013, there has been 150 confirmed bird flu cases reported in China.

According to a report published in Chinese daily Xinhua, the health officials are worried about the fact that the virus is dominantly active during winter and spring. And with thousands of people travelling through mass transports, such as trains, coaches and aircraft, it could create 'favourable circumstances' for the spreading of the disease.

Li Lanjuan of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, a leading bird flu researcher and member of the H7N9 prevention and control group, has reportedly warned that the virus might be spread by migrants returning to their homes (mainly rural) from the eastern regions.

The highlight of Spring Festival this year is that the Chinese Lunar New Year falls on 31 January, which is held as the most important occasion for family reunions. "We are worried about the risk brought by massive numbers of people gathering together in confined spaces," the official was quoted by the Chinese daily.

There is more alarming news as a new study by a Chinese team has found that the new bird flu is highly dynamic and can easily adapt to its environment. The team recently identified a new partial variation in the virus, demonstrating its capacity to adapt to its environment.

"It has increased the risk of human-to-human transmission and brought more difficulty in treatment," the research noted.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2014 at 8:31am
"There is more alarming news as a new study by a Chinese team has found that the new bird flu is highly dynamic and can easily adapt to its environment. The team recently identified a new partial variation in the virus, demonstrating its capacity to adapt to its environment."

I would like to read the Study! Anyone know where to get access?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RegiMental Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2014 at 12:16pm
Lets see how the figures look in February.  It is pretty much a guarentee that they will increase.  I am amazed that as many people are expected to travel.  Incredibly brave or ignorant; you decide.  I guess that the figures that they are reporting are low considering how many thousands of people must attend areas in and around these wet markets, so people must still think that they risk is low.

Still it seems to me that China is doing jack-s about this problem.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2014 at 6:21pm
Spring Festival travel rush begins across China
Published: Thu, January 16, 2014 

Image captured from a Reuters TV clip (CCTV)

Image captured from a Reuters TV clip (CCTV)


Zhengzhou, Henan province, China (Reuters) - China's 2014 Spring Festival travel rush started on Thursday, with an estimated 3.6 billion passenger trips to be made across the country during the 40-day holiday travel period.

According to state-run Xinhua News Agency, the numbers are up from last year, with roughly 200 million more trips being made.

The holiday travel period lasts 40 days and usually starts two weeks before the week-long Spring Festival holiday, marked by China's Lunar New Year celebration on Jan. 31 this year.

Often described as the world's biggest annual migration of people, this year's holiday travel period will see huge crowds occupying trains, cars and planes to make their way to see their loved ones.

China Railway Corporation says it will increase its passenger transportation capacity by adding more than 600 extra trains during the seasonal travel rush.

Meanwhile, China's domestic flights will increase to more than 62,000 every week from the current 50,000, while international flights will increase 20 percent to more than 9,600 weekly, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

The administration says Chinese airlines will provide at least 1.1 million seats every day to meet the travel peak.




http://www.solarnews.ph/lifestyle/travel/2014/01/16/spring-festival-travel-rush-begins-across-china#.UtiTrk2A0id


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2014 at 4:09pm
Vietnam wary as new bird flu strain claims lives in neighbor China 
Last updated: Friday, January 17, 2014 15:30

 

WHO cautious, but no evidence of human-to-human infections recorded yet


A woman sells live chickens and ducks in downtown Hanoi. China has reported its second death from the H7N9 bird flu virus this year, prompting concerns that the virus might spread to Vietnam via cross-border poultry smuggling. PHOTO: AFP

Prompted by the spread of a new deadly bird flu strain across the border in China, Vietnamese authorities are rushing to implement preventive measures ahead of the expected surge in poultry consumption for Tet (Vietnam’s Lunar New Year holiday).

“Visitors to Vietnam are being screened to monitor their body temperature for early detection of those with fever,” deputy health minister Nguyen Thanh Long said.

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“However, it is difficult because Tet is coming and there is going to be high consumption of chicken and ducks. [Illegal] markets selling livestock boom for a month around Tet, leading to high threats of pandemic,” he said.

The new rare virus strain that has everyone worried is called H7N9, as compared to the more common H5N1 and H1N1 that have plagued the region for years.

The Ministry of Health held a meeting with relevant agencies on January 13 to discuss prevention efforts against the bird flu, also known as avian influenza A.

At the meeting, Tran Dac Phu, director of the Preventive Health Department, said health inspectors will step up screenings at border gates.

Vietnam has recorded no cases of bird flu caused by the H7N9 strain virus so far but there is a possibility that it could spread in the country because it has appeared in China’s provinces near Vietnam, including seven cases in Guangdong, he said.

“This is a place that many Vietnamese people visit for tourism and trade,” Phu said. 

New virus

A suspected H7N9-infected patient died in southwest China's Guizhou Province, Xinhua news agency quoted local authorities as saying on January 13, in the second death from the virus in the past week.

The patient, identified only as a 38-year-old man from Meitan County, died on January 9 at a hospital in Zunyi City, a month after showing symptoms such as coughing and dizziness.

On January 10, a man from Fujian Province, also 38, died from the virus, Xinhua reported.

Meanwhile, a 65-year-old man infected with the H7N9 bird flu virus has also died in Hong Kong, the second such death in the city.

The man, the third person in Hong Kong to be diagnosed with the strain, came from the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen and had eaten poultry there, local media reported.

In China, human cases of the bird flu virus have also been reported in the provinces of Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong so far this year.

As of January 15, the World Health Organization (WHO) had been notified of 177 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza H7N9 virus, including 51 deaths.

“Of the cases reported, there are 172 cases from mainland China, 2 cases from Taiwan and 3 cases from Hong Kong. Up to 77 percent of the cases were reported to have been exposed to live animals including to chickens or live poultry,” the WHO said in a statement to Vietweek.

Experts say there is no evidence yet of any easy or sustained person-to-person transmission of the strain.

But an early scientific analysis of probable transmission of the new flu from person to person published last August  gave the strongest proof yet that it can at times jump between people and so could cause a human pandemic, Reuters reported.

The WHO said the source of the human infections was still being investigated. The UN agency stressed that it does not advise any special screenings for people going in and out of China, nor does it recommend any travel or trade curbs.

Last April, the WHO warned the H7N9 virus was one of the most lethal that the medical community had faced in recent years.

"This is an unusually dangerous virus for humans," Keiji Fukuda, WHO's assistant director-general for health, security and the environment told a news conference in Beijing.

"We think this virus is more easily transmitted from poultry to humans than H5N1," he added, referring to the bird flu outbreak between 2004 and 2007 that claimed 332 lives.

"This is definitely one of the most lethal influenza viruses that we have seen so far." 

Outbreak fears

Following recent infections of H7N9 in China, Vietnamese officials are concerned that it can spread across the border due to migration and poultry smuggling.

Deputy health minister Long instructed relevant agencies to strictly monitor people with pneumonia and symptoms of acute respiratory infections, especially those coming from pandemic zones.

“Livestock smuggling across the border must be controlled,” he said.

Health facilities have to prepare medicine and chemicals to prevent and deal with bird flu outbreaks and ensure timely exams and diagnoses for people suspected of contracting the virus, he said.

Long said China has recently shut down many live poultry markets and it has had positive effects in preventing the spread of bird flu.

Phu, the director of the Department of Preventive Health, warned that people should not eat raw poultry blood pudding – considered a delicacy by many Vietnamese – because it can easily transmit the virus.

He also advised local tourists to study relevant information before going abroad and choosing “suitable destinations” to prevent virus infections.

Dao Xuan Thanh, deputy director of the Animal Health Department, said the biggest concern is poultry smuggling between China and Vietnam, which is expected to surge during Tet.

It is difficult to detect poultry carrying the H7N9 virus in the early stages as the animals show no symptom, he added.

In 2013, relevant authorities bust nearly 1,800 cases of poultry smuggling from China to Vietnam, seizing some 56,000 animals, 202,000 kg of meat, 2.7 million eggs and millions of young chicks and ducklings.

Thanh also warned against the lax surveillance of the domestic poultry trade.

His agency recently inspected 60 markets nationwide and found 590 of the total 9,000 poultry samples tested positive for avian influenza A.

Meanwhile, the Department of Preventive Health has warned about new strains of avian influenza A virus having been detected around the globe more often recently.

According to Phu, the agency director, H7N9 was detected in March last year. H10N8 was first discovered in December and H9N2 this month.

“It used to take several years for a new strain to really emerge, including the H5N1 spread in 2003 and H1N1 in 2009,” he said.

The WHO has not issued specific official warnings about a possible major spread of the virus, but has still called for vigilance.

“There has been, however, to date no evidence of direct or sustained human-to-human transmission, thus the current likelihood of community-level spread of this virus is considered to be low,” the organization said in the statement to Vietweek.

“Any animal influenza virus that develops the ability to infect people is a theoretical risk to cause a pandemic. However, whether the avian influenza A (H7N9) virus could actually cause a pandemic is yet to be seen.”

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2014 at 10:46am

UN agency warns of growing bird flu risk, urges vigilance ahead of Chinese holidays

Photo: IRIN/Victoria Hazou


20 January 2014 – The United Nations agricultural agency today issued a new warning that bird flu viruses are on the rise again in China and urged neighbouring countries to be extra vigilant head of the upcoming Chinese New Year festivities.

“FAO [Food and Agricultural Organization] called upon neighbouring countries to remain vigilant in the face of A(H7N9) and other avian influenza viruses, such as highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1,” the UN agency said in a news release from Rome.

The number of human infections of H7N9 has considerably increased since late December in East and Southeast China, the UN World Health Organization (WHO) has said. At least seven cases of H7N9 infections have been reported this year, according to local reports.

Addressing its Executive Board today in Geneva, WHO Director-General Margaret Chan stressed that “vigilance is our watchword.”

Millions of people and poultry are expected to be on the move and many households will slaughter poultry at home to celebrate festivities that start next week. In addition, influenza viruses traditionally show increased activity during the winter months.

“Chinese authorities are enforcing important measures to reduce the risk of human exposure to the A(H7N9) virus,” said FAO Chief Veterinary Officer Juan Lubroth.

Measures include temporary closures of live bird markets, regular market rest days, improved hygiene in markets, heightened and ongoing surveillance in poultry and live bird market environment, and control of poultry movements.

“But countries need to stay alert, as the virus continues to circulate in poultry without showing any visible clinical signs. The risk to humans remains, especially over the next few months and particularly during the Chinese New Year’s holiday period,” Mr. Lubroth said.

So far, no other country has reported A(H7N9) in humans, animals or in the market place.

FAO is assisting a number of member countries, particularly those that are at high risk, in preventing and preparing for possible introductions of the virus into their poultry populations, conducting risk assessment, contingency planning and expansion of diagnostic capabilities, and risk based surveillance.

The UN agency has also been working with partners, including the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), to implement animal and environmental surveillance at live bird markets and farms since June 2013.


http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=46964&Cr=avian&Cr1=#.Ut1t6BDn-M8


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2014 at 4:24pm
This is 5X the population of the United States all trying to get home and then return in a few weeks.


Global Economics
China's Massive Spring Festival Travel Forecast: 3.6 Billion Passenger Trips


All told, 3.6 billion passenger trips will be made on planes, trains, and automobiles this holiday season, 200 million more than last year, predicted Lian Weiliang, an official at the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s state planning agency, speaking at a press conference.

The vast majority will hit the roads, often riding on China’s crowded long-distance buses. Road transport will make up 3.2 billion trips, up 5.8 percent over last year, and some 80 million a day. Airlines, too, will be weighed down with record numbers of holiday sojourners, with 42 million flights expected over the festive season, up 10 percent from 2013. Finally, passengers will make 258 million trips by train, up about 8 percent over last year. China’s migrant workers and students are rarely able to afford pricier plane tickets, so “there is a big gap between railway transportation capacity and demand,” said Hu Yadong, a deputy general manager at China Railway (390:HK), at the same press conference.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-01-16/chinas-massive-spring-festival-travel-forecast-3-dot-6-billion-passenger-trips
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2014 at 9:11pm

H7N9 bird flu: Chinese provinces halt live poultry trade

Bans instituted on mainland and Hong Kong culls chickens as infections increase and Chinese new year travel period arrives


  • Agencies in Beijing and Hong Kong
  • http://www.theguardian.com/ - theguardian.com, 

  http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-s/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/1/28/1390882837713/4a50b422-875b-4d26-9216-d4079438d400-460x276.jpeg - Live poultry trade is being halted in parts of China after a rise in H7N9 bird flu infections.Live poultry trade is being halted in parts of China after a rise in H7N9 bird flu infections. Photograph: Xinhua

Authorities in eastern China have banned live poultry sales after an increase in the number of people infected with the H7N9 strain of bird flu, state media has reported as the busy Chinese new year travel period gets under way.

So far this year H7N9 has killed 19 people in China and infected 96, according to the official Xinhua news agency, which cited the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.

A week ago more than 50 cases had been reported. The virus is believed to pass to humans through direct contact with infected birds.

The jump in cases comes during the 40-day travel period around Chinese new year. Chinese people are expected to make 3.6bn trips as families reunite. Chinese new year is on Friday.

The World Health Organisation has said there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission but recommends continued vigilance and close monitoring given the population movement prior to Chinese new year and sometimes unpredictable behaviour of flu viruses.

Xinhua said live poultry trading had been halted in three cities in coastal Zhejiang province, where 49 cases and 12 deaths have been reported. The province is inspecting farms and banning flights of domestic pigeons.

Neighbouring Shanghai will halt live poultry trading for three months starting on Friday. The city has reported eight infections and four deaths this year.

In Hong Kong authorities began culling 20,000 chickens and suspended imports of fresh poultry from mainland China for 21 days after the discovery of H7N9 in live chickens from the southern province of Guangdong.

Authorities also ordered the closure of the wholesale poultry market, where the virus was discovered, for 21 days until 18 February for cleaning and disinfection. Local farms were banned from supplying 
live chickens to the market.

"Agriculture, fisheries and conservation department officers will inspect all the local chicken farms and collect more samples for testing to ensure that local farms are not affected by H7 avian influenza," 
said an official statement.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/28/h7n9-bird-flu-chinese-poultry-trade?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2014 at 7:40pm
Hi Irish, i think this was the original study of H7N9 from October. I believe they have since expanded on it. I have also yet to see the paper.

http://www.sciencemagazinedigital.org/sciencemagazine/11_october_2013?pg=119#pg117 - http://www.sciencemagazinedigital.org/sciencemagazine/11_october_2013?pg=119#pg117

If the link doesn't work cut and past into the URL

This older study discusses the ability for a particular strain (HA H7N9 AH) of the virus to have human receptors while still holding on to its avian receptors. This means the virus can easily bounce back and forth from birds to humans, which makes the virus spread a lot easier. A lot easier!!! 

Just think about this new found ability.....

To play out a basic scenario. If someone has HA-H7N9-AH and then jumps on a plane bound for the USA. They then come into contact with a chook farm or similar. Bingo bango the virus is now in the USA. The virus has the potential to jumped continents. This is a new and very scary development.

There are only a few reported cases of this strain, but its the only one which is scientifically proven to have pandemic potential. I think this discovery and the fact Chinese new year kicks off now is cause for concern. 

Keep your eyes peeled for H7N9 coming to a town near you.

PS: forgot.. The back and forth thingo also increases the virus ability to recombine. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2014 at 7:28am
Cobber- Thanks for the link! Somehow I missed this study back in October or I read it and then forgot it. The jumping back and forth thing is troubling since if I'm not mistaken that's how viruses adapt to a new host! Also, how many Chinese expats from around the world go home for Spring Festival and then return?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2014 at 7:59am
 while were on the topic... Everyone keeps talking that H7N9 needs to go H2H before its a pandemic. This isn't necessarily the case. H7N9 can be quite effective at wiping out people with an avian host, especially that we now know about its ability to jump back and forth.

Just remember the fleas and the Bubonic Plauge 
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