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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

WHO emergency meeting in Geneva on MERS

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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 13 2014 at 12:33pm
Balloon is up.....

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/13/us-health-mers-meeting-idUSKBN0DT1B220140513

(Reuters) - Health and infectious disease experts met at the World Health Organisation on Tuesday to discuss whether a deadly virus that emerged in the Middle East in 2012 now constitutes a "public health emergency of international concern".

The virus, which causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome or MERS infections in people, has been reported in more than 500 patients in Saudi Arabia alone and spread throughout the region in sporadic cases and into Europe, Asia and the United States.

Its death rate is around 30 percent of those infected.

Experts meeting at the United Nations health agency's Geneva headquarters would consider whether a recent upsurge in detected cases in Saudi Arabia, together with the wider international spread of sporadic cases, means the disease should be classed as an international emergency.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2014 at 12:55pm
It's jumped to humans with an impressive fatality rate, there is no vaccine, and no specific treatment available once infected - all that's missing is efficient transmission on a par with it's cousin, the common cold.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rors Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2014 at 1:04pm
The meeting was supposed to end earlier tonight with a subsequent media briefing. Apparently the discussions are taking much longer and the meeting won't be finished until tomorrow with the journalists' briefing taking place thereafter around Wednesday noon/afternoon (Geneva local time).
Exact time will be communicated later.

I think officially declaring what's happening with MERS as a PHEIC involves a lot of politics and will have effects on international travel/trade/economy... Add to it the criticism WHO came under after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic for supposedly "crying wolf" when the virus was not as deadly as originally feared, they do not want a repeat of that which will bring the credibility down the drain and will render people even more complacent if anything.

With the little information available and the surge of cases in the last couple of months, these guys calling the shots are kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place tonight
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2014 at 1:14pm
I agree, Rors - after the public's perception of H1N1 being overblown (instead of a perfect opportunity to fine tune our response to a major pandemic at the very least), the WHO are walking a tightrope. That said, the WHO's own definition of a PHEIC is very telling. These guys are getting nervous and acknowledging that the time has now come for everyone to get on board following the Saudi's deplorable handling of the situation.

"A public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) is defined as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response"."
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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2014 at 1:44pm
^I'll defend the public health response to H1N1, it was the same type of virus that caused the Spanish Flu and seemed to break out of a swine farm in Mexico (one of the ones I work with, coincidentally), so everyone was on tenter-hooks. 

Add to that the curious fact that the 2009 H1N1 outbreak really hit the young and very young hard (seasonal flu is usually more fatal on the elderly).  We didn't know what we were dealing with early on, and didn't ascertain that it was a "mild" pandemic strain until months later.  

That being said, I think the public health infrastructure is very gun-shy now, and perhaps not sounding the MERS alarm as loudly as they could.  I was pushing for more action on H7N9, looks like MERS is winning the "virus race" we have on AFT!  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2014 at 2:09pm
CRS,DrPH, you say that H1N1 hit the young and very young hard. I am not young or very young and I had H1N1.It d*** near killed me. I wheezed very loud for 3 months.I could be heard wheeze  in the next room.I was so worried that I had PFTs done when I got well to see how much permanent lung damage I had. I was shocked when I tested normal,but this H1N1 was tough,very tough.Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kyle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2014 at 2:20pm
Yes the H1N1 hit me hard also back in 2009. I recently had the flu not sure on what strain considering the hospital never tested but it was just as bad as when I had H1N1 if not worse. I still have a cough and its been 3 weeks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rors Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2014 at 2:24pm
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

^I'll defend the public health response to H1N1, it was the same type of virus that caused the Spanish Flu and seemed to break out of a swine farm in Mexico (one of the ones I work with, coincidentally), so everyone was on tenter-hooks. 

Add to that the curious fact that the 2009 H1N1 outbreak really hit the young and very young hard (seasonal flu is usually more fatal on the elderly).  We didn't know what we were dealing with early on, and didn't ascertain that it was a "mild" pandemic strain until months later.  

That being said, I think the public health infrastructure is very gun-shy now, and perhaps not sounding the MERS alarm as loudly as they could.  I was pushing for more action on H7N9, looks like MERS is winning the "virus race" we have on AFT!  


Totally agree... the way H1N1 spiraled out of control, the rate of the daily new cases, the population most affected (young adults) and the fact that it was the same type of virus responsible for the 1918 pandemic prompted the public health response we saw.
The problem was then convincing the public that the measures taken to curb the 2009 pandemic were warranted, and we were "lucky" we did not have a repeat of the spanish flu. The legacy of failing to communicate that to the general public (which is by no means a simple task, I don't even know if that's feasible at all to begin with) is what's making the scientific/decision-makers wary of going full steam this time around until they have conclusive undeniable evidence that we are that far up "lethal pandemic" creek. Should we be there, I hope it wouldn't be too late when the alarms are sounded.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2014 at 2:36pm
I absolutely agree, Chuck. At the time, as preppers we were all well aware of how bad an H1N1 outbreak could become if things had happened a little differently, but the general public now look back at it as a lot of hype that achieved nothing when in fact it highlighted a lot of inadequacies, particularly the lack of personal preparedness. It should have alerted many to the fact that they couldn't cope with anything lasting more than a day or so, but it didn't and it was an opportunity lost that will come back and haunt us when something big comes along.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2014 at 3:50pm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/pandemic-global-estimates.htm

2009 H1N1 Pandemic Hits the Young Especially Hard

This study estimated that 80% of 2009 H1N1 deaths were in people younger than 65 years of age which differs from typical seasonal influenza epidemics during which 80-90% of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years of age and older. 

To illustrate the impact of the shift in the age distribution of influenza deaths to younger age groups during the pandemic, researchers calculated the number of years of life lost due to 2009 H1N1-associated deaths. They estimated that 3 times as many years of life were lost during the first year of 2009 H1N1 virus circulation than would have occurred for the same number of deaths during a typical influenza season.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rors Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2014 at 2:35am
Gregory Härtl @HaertlG 14m

.@WHO #MERS press conference set for 13h00 Geneva time today.


So that's 1pm local time, that's about 1 and a half hour from now

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2014 at 6:34am
MERS


WHO says deadly MERS virus does not constitute global emergency

LONDON — Reuters
Published Wednesday, May. 14 2014, 7:28 AM EDT
Last updated Wednesday, May. 14 2014, 7:30 AM EDT
[link to www.theglobeandmail.com]

Concern about the deadly new Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) virus has “significantly increased” but the disease does not yet constitute a global public health emergency, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday.

The virus, which causes coughing, fever and sometimes fatal pneumonia, has been reported in more than 500 patients in Saudi Arabia alone and has spread to neighboring countries and in a few cases, to Europe and Asia. It kills about 30 per cent of those who are infected.

The WHO’s emergency committee, which met on Tuesday, said on Wednesday that based on current information, the seriousness of the situation had increased in terms of public health impact, but that there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus.

“The committee concluded that the conditions for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) have not yet been met,” the WHO said in a statement.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2014 at 9:04am
Official WHO statement on MERS, resulting from emergency meeting:


The Members of the Committee discussed the information provided. Based on current information, the Committee indicated that the seriousness of the situation had increased in terms of public health impact, but that there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. As a result of their deliberations, the Committee concluded that the conditions for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) have not yet been met.

However, the Committee emphasized that its concern about the situation had significantly increased. Their concerns centred on the recent sharp rise in cases; systemic weaknesses in infection prevention and control, as well as gaps in critical information; and possible exportation of cases to especially vulnerable countries.

=====

My professional opinion?  They are "whistling past the graveyard" on MERS and bowing to political pressure from KSA and Islamic states who have citizens intent on the Hajj in 2014.  

Look what the world went through with SARS....that virus exploded onto the world stage, halting commercial shipping from Asia (container boats from China were held offshore for weeks while the infection was being contained),  the evolution of "super spreaders" helped spike the H2H transmission in days, etc. 

I'd like to say this to WHO:  "Look, this is a corona virus of animal origin.  We've been down this path with nearly disastrous results.  There is no vaccine, no treatment, no cure, so patients either live or die (30% CFR).  

We are well past the point of "concern" and should be preparing for concrete steps to shut this down."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote debg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2014 at 1:17pm
I always value reading your posts on here because I know you have so much knowledge of viruses and how they work, spread, etc. You also are very good about keeping a very level head and when some of us on here may over react. To see your comment about being past the point of concern, is scary to say the least and I hope someone in a position of power is having your same thoughts!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 15 2014 at 6:14am
The Scientist »WHO: MERS as Global Health Threat?

A World Health Organization committee finds no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission of the deadly coronavirus, but recommends immediate action to prevent further spread.

By | May 15, 2014

Travelers in New York City's John F. Kennedy International AirportFLICKR, DANIELOn Monday (May 12), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced the second lab-confirmed case of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection in the country: a health-care worker who lived in Saudi Arabia and traveled through five international airports before arriving in Orlando earlier this month. The very next day, the World Health Organization (WHO) convened the fifth meeting of the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee concerning MERS-CoV to discuss the potential public health threat.

The committee, along with three expert advisers, concluded that while the “seriousness of the situation [has] increased in terms of public health impact, . . . there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission” at this time, according to a WHO statement.

Beyond Saudi Arabia, the country in which MERS-CoV is thought to have originated and where most of the cases of infection and fatalities have occurred to date, the U.S. this month (May 2) joined Egypt, Greece, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malaysia, Oman, the Philippines, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates on the list of countries that have now reported lab-confirmed cases of the infection.

Cautioning against the possible exportation of the coronavirus to other vulnerable nations, the Emergency Committee urged WHO member states to take steps to improve their infection prevention and control measures, to enhance public awareness of MERS-CoV, and to “initiate and accelerate critical investigations, including case-control, serological, environmental, and animal studies, to better understand the epidemiology, especially risk factors and assess the effectiveness of control measures,” according to the WHO statement.

According to the Chicago Tribune, the Transportation Security Administration is posting MERS warning signs at 22 major U.S. airports at the CDC’s request. “The warning notes that the risk to most travelers is low but that people who get sick within 14 days of being in the Arabian Peninsula should call a doctor,” the Tribune noted.

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