Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > Latest News
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - How We’d Really Deal With the Pandemic
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

How We’d Really Deal With the Pandemic

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
carbon20 View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 65816
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: How We’d Really Deal With the Pandemic
    Posted: July 21 2014 at 2:08pm

How We’d Really Deal With the Pandemic in ‘The Last Ship’

By David Warmflash | July 17, 2014 11:36 am

THE-LAST-SHIP

A United States Navy Destroyer is sent to the Arctic and ordered to radio silence for four months. During that time, a mysterious virus – 100 percent fatal and 100 percent contagious – spreads from isolated pockets in Africa and Asia into a pandemic. When radio silence ends and the captain and his 217 crew finally learn what’s going on, 80 percent of the human population is either dead or dying, and all government control has collapsed.

Unrealistic? Perhaps. But this is the setting of the TNT hit series The Last Ship. While that fictional virus may indeed be too lethal and spread too rapidly to be realistic, one thing this nail-biting, apocalyptic story should scare us into doing is to respond faster to viral outbreaks than we’ve been able to do in the past. The real-life models for this are two coronaviruses: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV).

First identified in humans in 2012, MERS-CoV has since caused 572 laboratory-confirmed infections, 173 of which have been fatal, and yet clinicians have no drug that targets the virus specifically. The same is true of SARS. Despite some initial, anecdotal reports suggesting that the drug ribavirin might work against this virus, and some modest success with interferon (which has a general inhibitory effect against many viruses), there is no specific anti-SARS agent.

So whether we’re talking about a virus in real life that’s killed hundreds, or the unnamed, fictional virus from The Last Ship that’s killed billions, global and national health organizations can respond via several strategies.

Vaccine Research

Image source: Cynthia Goldsmith/Azaibi Tamin An electron micrograph of a thin section of MERS-CoV, showing the spherical particles within the cytoplasm of an infected cell.

An electron micrograph of a thin section of MERS-CoV, showing the spherical particles within the cytoplasm of an infected cell. Credit: CDC

One strategy is to develop a vaccine. On The Last Ship, this seems to be the onlystrategy that anybody has considered thus far, but vaccine development usually takes a long time. The best guess that I’ve heard, if we’re talking about the time for just the laboratory work to make a new vaccine in an emergency – forgetting about the quality control and clinical testing for side effects and to see how well it works – is 10-12 weeks. That’s assuming that you have an infrastructure with functioning laboratories and hundreds of scientists and technicians.

On The Last Ship, they don’t. They have only one virologist working in a makeshift lab aboard the destroyer. Called the Nathan James, the destroyer and its crew wander the Earth’s oceans looking for fuel and food while trying to avoid a renegade Russian admiral, who commands an older but much larger (and nuclear powered, thus longer enduring) vessel, and wants the virologist and her research.

The virologist, Dr. Rachel Scott (Rhona Mitra), has found the “primordial strand,” an ancient form of the virus whose various descendants (each with a slightly altered nucleotide sequence) have decimated the human species. The first science premise of the story is that having the primordial sequence will allow her to make a vaccine. A secondary premise is that a new gene that the virus has acquired (probably via human intervention), which has made the virus much more contagious, has also stabilized it, preventing it from mutating and evolving further.

These premises set the stage for exciting sci-fi drama – but if you’re wondering, no, it does not make any sense biologically. The first premise might dovetail superficially with one of several hypotheses surrounding theorigin of viruses – a subject that is hotly debated – but doesn’t fit at all with how you create vaccines against known viral pathogens, which would be created customized to the threat at hand.

As for the second premise, it’s just wrong. More mutations will appear sooner, if there are more copies of the virus due to its increased spread, and persistence of mutations favorable to the virus will depend on selective forces that are complex and hard to predict.

A Quicker Fix

One short-term but potentially lifesaving strategy that has not yet been mentioned in the show involves passive immunity. A vaccine promotes active immunity by stimulating the immune system to recognize parts of the virus. Passive immunity, on the other hand, comes not from exposure to the virus itself but from immune system products transferred from the blood of another individual (either human or non-human) who possesses immunity.

As of episode 4 of The Last Ship, there is a hint that a scientist working on the Russian ship is immune. And on the U.S. ship there’s a dog, which, Dr. Scott offhandedly mentioned, are immune to the pandemic. She failed to mention, however, how vital this little tidbit could be to the fight against the pandemic. Immunity for dogs means that either the virus infects canine cells without harming them, or, more likely, that the canine immune system naturally recognizes the virus and mounts an early effective attack.

Deborah Cannon of the Special Pathogens Branch processes a SARS specimen. Photo credit: CDC/James Gathany

A CDC scientist processes a SARS specimen. Credit: CDC/James Gathany

If that’s the case, blood could be drawn from the dog and antibodies that recognize the virus could be extracted as a product known as an antiserum. When injected into an unprotected individual, such an extract of antibodies can provide temporary protection in the event of exposure to the pathogen. It’s called passive immunity, because it comes from someone else – your immune system is not actively making the antibodies – and doesn’t renew itself, so you must keep injecting more to remain protected.

In real life, we use antisera for a variety of conditions, including snakebite envenomation and for protection against certain infectious diseases when there’s no effective vaccine, or when there’s not enough time for a vaccine to take effect. So, whereas a vaccine offers the advantage of long-term, active immunity, an antiserum provides immunity that is short-lived but immediately effective.

Anti-Viral Drugs

Finally, while working on a vaccine, Earth’s health organizations and the crew and scientists of The Last Ship would be considering strategies other than active and passive immunity – namely those involving drug therapy.

Today, after years of research, we still don’t have effective vaccines against HIV or malaria, but we’ve advanced substantially in treating these diseases with drugs. Depending on the stage of the infection, we fight HIV with aplethora of agents that can block the virus from fusing with the cell membrane and entering human cells (useful in early infection), or inhibit HIV enzymes like reverse transcriptase (that allows the virus to replicate its RNA genome into DNA), integrase (that integrates the replicated DNA into infected cells), and protease (that facilitates assembly of new virus particles). Today HIV patients can be managed for years with drugs, if the infection is detected early.

Similarly, though malaria kills more than 600,000 people annually who could be saved with a vaccine, we’ve been using various anti-malarial drugs for centuries. Certain agents (e.g. quinolones, doxycycline) can prevent the disease if taken prior to exposure to the Plasmodium parasite, so they’re given to those traveling in endemic areas, like a vaccine, albeit one that protects only for a limited time. Furthermore, study of the parasite is leading to new pharmaceutical tactics to combat active disease. We must, and eventually we shall, have vaccines against these diseases, but meanwhile the more rapidly-moving drug research is saving lives.

It’s not rapid enough though; that’s why we don’t have a drug specific against MERS-CoV. But there is another, more shotgun approach: test a bunch of drugs at once that are already approved for other clinical uses, and quickly repurpose those that happen to work against the virus.

After trying 290 different agents on coronaviruses, one group of investigatorshas identified 39 drugs that can inhibit either MERS-CoV or SARS-CoV, and 27 of these turned out to be effective against both. These winning drugs represent a variety of classes. Since all 39 are approved for other uses, their characteristics are known already.

Effectively, phase zero and phase I testing can be bypassed, and clinicians can try giving them to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV patients and start noting their clinical efficacy. I would recommend that Dr. Scott do the same.

CATEGORIZED UNDER: HEALTH & MEDICINETOP POSTS
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
Back to Top
Kilt2 View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: December 17 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 7414
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2014 at 9:52pm
Humans have a history of getting stuff dead wrong and making monumental cock up mistakes.

the CDC sent H5N1 and anthrax out in the mail - what???

Monumental cock ups is the thing with people.

Just look at the US Government - all the promises and then an idiot is running the show.

Bill Clinton is a prime example - a monumental moron and then there is Hillary. What??

Hows Monica?
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Executive Admin
Executive Admin
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 47251
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2014 at 2:26am
Focus, Kilt. It's a good article and an opportunity to discuss something pandemic related without getting embroiled in politics again.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
carbon20 View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 65816
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2014 at 3:53am
here here, Jacksdad........
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
Back to Top
hachiban08 View Drop Down
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
Avatar

Joined: December 06 2007
Location: California, USA
Status: Offline
Points: 15627
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2014 at 9:14am
I agree, Jacksdad. Once politics get into the mix, personal feelings come out and then it potentially ruins a good discussion. Now if the discussion was already primarily about politics, then that's different, do as you must. However, when it's not and they get brought in, sadly it takes away from the true topic in a very negative way and feels really toxic.
Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Executive Admin
Executive Admin
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 47251
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2014 at 12:31pm
Thumbs Up
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
Points: 26660
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2014 at 9:26pm
Quite honestly, the scenario of "The Last Ship" is rather ridiculous!  Naval vessels wouldn't have the experts onboard to do this type of research.  

I know, sci-fi is the willing suspension of disbelief, but still....

The best tactic would be to stay at sea & avoid humans on land at all cost.  Eventually, the virus would wipe out the susceptible human hosts, and genetically immune humans would survive.   That's the approach I would use in a rampant avian flu outbreak = self-quarantine through social distancing.  

Ya just have to have enough supplies to pull it off.  I hope I do!
CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Executive Admin
Executive Admin
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 47251
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2014 at 7:29pm
I agree, Chuck. Shelter in place with enough supplies to last until the virus had burned itself out and/or a vaccine is available. The only problem is I got rid of my boat a few years ago
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2014 at 8:10pm
SIP is what I have always planned on. Biggest problem is water. I am about 1-3 miles from big water. But most people do not live that near water. When you go get the water you have to avoid infected and be careful if the water is infected. It can be sanitized but carefully.

The other problem is defending your home. That is a huge subject! But others will try and take what you have.

That being said I would not want to be on the road or in the middle of no where, where no one can hear you scream when the bad guys come. So SIP is the only way to go for me and my family.
Back to Top
hachiban08 View Drop Down
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
Avatar

Joined: December 06 2007
Location: California, USA
Status: Offline
Points: 15627
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2014 at 8:27pm
Definitely agree with you, FluMom. I'd probably SIP and then regroup with family if the situation allows it. I live 400 miles from home so to take the back-way home would mean going through desert, mountains, forest, and farmland. Going the coastal route is just as bad. I'm about the same distance from a lake and river as you are too. I'm not alone either, my s.o. lives down the road from me, but we'd probably end up in my apartment as he has room mates and his area is a bit less "secure" than mine, although both are gated communities. Yeah, home defense is big and something I need to improve on.
Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2014 at 11:32pm
Hachi, you live really far from your family. I agree with you to SIP. You need a bug out bag that has enough freeze dry food to last long enough to get you home most of the way.

If you go on the average with a backpack you can walk 2MPH. It would take you 9 days to walk home. I figure it would take my son 7 days to walk home from his school. I have Mountain House Freeze Dry food for him, breakfast, some power bars for lunch and a good dinner. He has 6 days worth but longer if he uses his head.

For water he has a Berkey water bottle and tablets to make sure it kills all viruses. I packed foil pouch water and told him to dump or drink it right away if it is too heavy. I hope he can drive his car most of the way but no one knows what SH(t may hit the fan. So I have made his BOB for a long walk.

Have a BOB ready to go so you can walk home if needed. Here is what my son has in his BOB, hope this helps:   

- pepper spray
- 3 changes of underwear;          
- a fixed blade knife with sharpening stone.               
- 3 pairs of socks;
- Para cord.                                   
- N95 masks;                    
- Compass                                   
- vinyl gloves
- a map of states going home                              
- goggles;
- a poncho                                   
- a metal spork                    
- a filter water bottle                              
- waterproof matches
- water purification tablets                         
fire steel and tinder
- a quart sized ziploc bag                         
- a crank radio with cell phone charger
- a bandana;                                   
- tent;
- 10 coffee maker filters and rubber bands               
- a sleeping bag
- 6 breakfast bars for lunch                         
- sleeping pad
- food for 6 days (longer if you ration it) & water               
- saw
- solid fuel cookset                               
- a survival fishing kit
- solid fuel (tablets for 18 meals)                         
- 2.5 gallon water jug
- a packet of tissues for toilet paper                    
- a plastic cup and bowl
- $150 cash;                                   
- paper and pencil              
- gloves and a hat                              
- first aid kit
- 6 sets hand warmers                              
- bug wipes
- jacket/windbreaker                              
- trash bag
- bar soap and wipes                              
- sun block
- ID & essential papers                              
- sun glasses
- Leatherman pliers, knife                         
- 2-3 butane lighters
- Boots (In Black Case)
- Machete




Back to Top
ViQueen24 View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2014 at 11:28am
Hey, Flu Mom, that is an awesome list. Helpful to alot of us, I'm sure. Thanks for posting it!
Back to Top
hachiban08 View Drop Down
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
Avatar

Joined: December 06 2007
Location: California, USA
Status: Offline
Points: 15627
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2014 at 1:13pm
Thanks for the info, FluMom. I have a good amount of some the things you have listed, but am unsure more of the stuff will fit unless I got a bigger backpack. Which kind of backpack does your son have?
Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
Back to Top
Kilt2 View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: December 17 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 7414
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2014 at 3:10pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

Focus, Kilt. It's a good article and an opportunity to discuss something pandemic related without getting embroiled in politics again.

My point is that it will be a disaster for the majority - not those prepared.

Humans are stupid - shall I list examples?

How many have thought you stupid for your preparation for a pandemic flu? In my case - all but one.

We will see what happens to them.

There is a story about a man named Noah building a boat.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2014 at 4:44pm
Dang he has a huge backpack and so do I they are Kelty with a frame. Frame gives support. It is VERY heavy because I have water in it. Like I told him dump most of the water if he really had to walk home he has the Berkey sport bottle to fill and there should be water along the way.

He also has an auxiliary container to put in his car that has the rest of the water I got for BOB and his hiking boots as well as snowshoes. We live in snow country and he can strap them to his backpack if needed. I have sent old ski poles for help in walking and a walking stick depending on need.   He stores all of this at college in the storage locker I got him at a 24 hour storage area.   He can get in when he needs to.

Hope this helps Hachi!
Back to Top
LOPPER View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LOPPER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2014 at 5:47pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

I agree, Chuck. Shelter in place with enough supplies to last until the virus had burned itself out and/or a vaccine is available. The only problem is I got rid of my boat a few years ago



Meh why let a little thing like legal ownership get in the way of survival. The Marinas will be full of ships and boats at first. Timing is everything.
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2014 at 6:44pm
Ok guys get real most of us regular people out here have never run a boat especially a sail boat which is the only one that does not require fuel. I hope the people who know about boats are able to survive at least man will continue.
Back to Top
carbon20 View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 65816
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 25 2014 at 8:45am
got my place sorted
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Executive Admin
Executive Admin
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 47251
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 25 2014 at 9:42am
Originally posted by LOPPER LOPPER wrote:

Meh why let a little thing like legal ownership get in the way of survival. The Marinas will be full of ships and boats at first. Timing is everything.


I like your thinking... Thumbs Up
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
carbon20 View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 65816
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 26 2014 at 4:34pm
also dont forget boats on land in saleyards and such,

me lucky i live 5 mins from the Ocean,

boats galore ,even an island just off the coast with wind genarater

Gun Boats.....now we talking .....lol

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 29640
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 27 2014 at 12:02am
FluMom, your son might be able to use one of those water pouches that is like a mini back pack and sits flat against the body. If he wore it on his chest rather than his back then the weight would be more evenly distributed and balanced. 

I'd also suggest that he steals a bike asap and when his car gives up he can bike the rest of the way. 
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down