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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Who update 8/20/2014

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pheasant View Drop Down
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    Posted: August 20 2014 at 11:27am
Up to 1350 deaths now.

Ebola virus disease update - west Africa

Disease outbreak news
20 August 2014
Epidemiology and surveillance

Between 17 and 18 August 2014, a total of 221 new cases of Ebola virus disease (laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases) as well as 106 deaths were reported from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.
Health sector response

WHO continues to engage in high-level communication efforts with affected countries, companies and organizations doing business in and from Africa, and national and global leaders. Currently, some companies have taken the decision to suspend services to the affected countries. This includes airlines and shipping companies. As a result of these decisions, countries are beginning to experience supply shortages, including fuel, food, and basic supplies. WHO is working with the UN World Food Programme to ensure adequate food and supplies, but calls on companies to make business decisions based on scientific evidence with regard to the transmission of Ebola virus.

In the current outbreak, the majority of Ebola virus disease cases are a result of human-to-human transmission and failure to apply appropriate infection prevention and control measures in home care, some clinical settings, and in burial rituals. It is important to understand that EVD is not an airborne disease. Individuals may become infected as a result of contact with the bodily fluids (vomit, diarrhoea, sputum, blood, etc.) from persons who are confirmed to have EVD or who have died from EVD. Companies bringing goods and services to the affected countries are at low risk for exposure to EVD and WHO, under the International Health Regulations, encourages companies and organizations to continue providing these necessary supplies.

Countries around the world continue to engage in active surveillance for cases of EVD. Reports have been received by WHO of suspected cases and systematic verification is underway in a number of countries to confirm whether these are actual EVD cases. Overall, these reports are a positive sign that surveillance is working and countries are stepping up their preparedness to respond. As of today, no cases have been confirmed outside Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, or Sierra Leone.

A high-level delegation from WHO is currently in the affected countries, working with the national authorities and partners to adapt strategic operations response plans. Meetings are planned with leaders in Liberia and Sierra Leone, where transmission continues to be high.

WHO does not recommend any travel or trade restrictions be applied except in cases where individuals have been confirmed or are suspected of being infected with EVD or where individuals have had contact with cases of EVD. (Contacts do not include properly-protected health-care workers and laboratory staff.) Temporary recommendations from the Emergency Committee with regard to actions to be taken by countries can be found at:

    IHR Emergency Committee on Ebola outbreak in west Africa

Disease update
Confirmed, probable, and suspect cases and deaths from Ebola virus disease in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, as of 18 August 2014

     New (1)      Confirmed      Probable      Suspect      Totals
Guinea                          
Cases      36      423      140      16      579
Deaths      2      254      140      2      396
Liberia                          
Cases      126      242      502      228      972
Deaths      95      212      239      125      576
Nigeria                          
Cases      0      12      0      3      15
Deaths      0      4      0      0      4
Sierra Leone                          
Cases      59      783      52      72      907
Deaths      9      335      34      5      374
Totals                          
Cases      221      1460      694      319      2473
Deaths      106      805      413      132      1350
1. New cases were reported between 17 and 18 August 2014.           
                         

The total number of cases is subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation, and availability of laboratory results. Data reported in the Disease Outbreak News are based on official information reported by Ministries of Health.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_20_ebola/en/
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2014 at 11:31am
9.9% increase in 3 days?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2014 at 11:48am
That increase covers 24 hours only. That's 9.9 - or 10% in one day. Like I said, either WHO will start to slowly feed estimated numbers (to cover the assumed missed cases) -which I doubt they'd do without clearly noting it or these cases are about to explode. (Edited)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2014 at 12:29pm
Thanks for the updates pheasant. Good job.

I'm a little with oneflu on the track of reporting issues. Guinea is starting to finally report their back logged cases in a spoon fed fashion of 30 - 40 cases each reporting cycle. They still have over 1000 cases no matter how you look at it. Sierra Leone and Liberia is on a death spiral. Then you have Nigeria that will now under-report cases (or not report), similar to how Guinea started not reporting. It will catch up to Nigeria as it has recently done with Guinea. Margaret Chan needs to be tougher on these countries.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2014 at 12:41pm
You'd think they'd learn that pandemic Ponzi schemes don't work unless you can exert as much control as China. At some point you have to fess up to the cases you've been hiding, and then things start to look even worse real fast.

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2014 at 1:31pm
It probably doesn't matter. They will be kept in check. Promise you that one. We do our own thing around here - and impressing cdc, cidrap, who, ain't a part of it. We may be an unpopular and a not-so respected site - but people won't be steered wrong if the time arrives. Hell, still waiting for cidrap and WHO to catch up. Can't fault CDC. All others - be forwarded as we will call the events here as we see them. Think we won't?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote quietprepr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2014 at 2:13pm
Ten percent in a day...plus a possible case in my backyard in Sacramento. Not a good news day!
"Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival." - W. Edwards Deming
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2014 at 5:12pm
Ebola cases and deaths by country and by date
Date Total Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone Nigeria References
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths
18 Aug 2014 2,473 1,350 579 396 972 576 907 374 15 4 ao 08-18 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-167 - [167]
16 Aug 2014 2,240 1,229 543 394 834 466 848 365 15 4 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-168 - [168]
13 Aug 2014 2,127 1,145 519 380 786 413 810 348 12 4 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-169 - [169]
11 Aug 2014 1,975 1,069 510 377 670 355 783 334 12 3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-170 - [170]
9 Aug 2014 1,848 1,013 506 373 599 323 730 315 13 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-171 - [171]
6 Aug 2014 1,779 961 495 367 554 294 717 298 13 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-172 - [172]
4 Aug 2014 1,711 932 495 363 516 282 691 286 9 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-173 - [173]
1 Aug 2014 1,603 887 485 358 468 255 646 273 4 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-174 - [174]
30 Jul 2014 1,440 826 472 346 391 227 574 252 3 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-175 - [175]
27 Jul 2014 1,323 729 460 339 329 156 533 233 1 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-176 - [176]
23 Jul 2014 1,201 672 427 319 249 129 525 224

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-177 - [177]
20 Jul 2014 1,093 660 415 314 224 127 454 219

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-178 - [178]
17 Jul 2014 1,048 632 410 310 196 116 442 206

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-179 - [179]
14 Jul 2014 982 613 411 310 174 106 397 197

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-180 - [180]
12 Jul 2014 964 603 406 304 172 105 386 194

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-181 - [181]
8 Jul 2014 888 539 409 309 142 88 337 142

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-182 - [182]
7 Jul 2014 844 518 408 307 131 84 305 127

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-183 - [183]
2 Jul 2014 779 481 412 305 115 75 252 101

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-184 - [184]
1 Jul 2014 759 467 413 303 107 65 239 99

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak#cite_note-185 - [185]

Guinea making it's move.  I applaud the WHO for getting the deal done with Guinea - and to get them reporting.    It's a start.  They reported 36 new cases with two additional deaths, which is a little lower than the 55%.   The fact of the matter is, what's happening in Liberia and Sierra Leone is certainly happening in Guinea.    That's a no brainer.  What concerns me a little more is Nigeria, which could be dubbed the front line of the potential Ebola pandemic.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Seawolfe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 1:44am
I can believe numbers by country but the total is way off cause Nigeria is playing games. Here is a problem- - Nigeria finally decides to fes up and dumps some good size numbers into the equation. The world (not WHO) sees it as a surge in cases and all hell breaks loose - - borders close, airlines quit flying, logistics quit flowing, medical people are pulled back home to deal with expected cases and so on. We need honest reporting right away so we can react properly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 7:02am
Originally posted by Seawolfe Seawolfe wrote:

I can believe numbers by country but the total is way off cause Nigeria is playing games. Here is a problem- - Nigeria finally decides to fes up and dumps some good size numbers into the equation. The world (not WHO) sees it as a surge in cases and all hell breaks loose - - borders close, airlines quit flying, logistics quit flowing, medical people are pulled back home to deal with expected cases and so on. We need honest reporting right away so we can react properly.


My feelings exactly. We've seen this in China and Saudi before - nationalistic pride and the perceived need to prevent panic cause governments to put an optimistic spin on things and censor the numbers. The problem is that outbreaks that don't quit eventually leave countries with more sick and dead than they can hide. China just orders physicians to amend the cause of death, or confines the sick to heavily guarded hospitals for as long as it takes, but West Africa isn't China and they don't have the control or infrastructure for that. When they finally throw in the towel and invite the WHO in, we'll probably find out that we've been basing predictions on deliberatedly doctored figures and also crappy reporting by inexperienced and inept local officials (I think it's unlikely we'd ever see over reporting) and a substantial surge in cases will show up as the numbers are corrected.
Ninety six years later, and we still can't agree on the number of dead from Spanish Flu, and 2009's H1N1 pandemic numbers will probably continue to change for years to come. I very much doubt we're seeing anything close to the truth in West Africa right now for one reason or another.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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