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Black swan theory |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95797 |
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Posted: October 20 2014 at 12:40am |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[1] More technically, in the scientific monograph Lectures on Probability and Risk in the Real World: Fat Tails (Volume 1), Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as "stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability".[2] |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95797 |
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If there are "laws"in history the future would be predictable. The future is not predictable that is one of the few lessons we can learn from history. Each point in history is, more or less, unique. That point of history is the bases on which events unfold.
When looking at the Ebola-outbreak statistics can give a false impression. Calculating risk-factors is partly building a house in a swamp. Nothing is certain ! It is quite likely that more Ebola-cases will show up in the western world. The chances of Ebola stopping it's spread by itself in west Africa is small. (Eventhough a number of people do seem to get infected but do not fall ill. They produce anti-bodies to the virus and stop/slow down the spread) A cold winter, other weather events, the financial market, unemployment, the flu-season are all factors that can play a role in how Ebola (or any other form of illness) will develop.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95797 |
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The idea that Ebola is not a danger for western countries is in itself dangerous. The western world is part of nature and not above it.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Littleraven1
V.I.P. Member Joined: October 01 2014 Status: Offline Points: 325 |
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I always think of a quote by John Muir when I consider how this country's leaders seem to set themselves "above" everything; "Most people are on the world, not in it-- having no conscious sympathy or relationship to anything about them-- undiffused seporate, and rigidly alone like marbles of polished stone, touching but seporate. ” Simply another form of arrogance.
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There's a bad moon on the rise
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95797 |
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Good quote ! Lack of knowledge off history (World War 1 was 15 million killed, the following "Spanish"Flu might have killed up to a 100 million) places people in "now" without roots. "We are history" just like "we are the future" ignoring timeframes for short gains and pleasure has its price.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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Really good post Dutch. I have heard of Black Swan events from time to time, but never read about the concept behind them.
History and it's lessons are so important as a reminder of the "what if's of the future". Mans arrogance has paved the way for many many dreadful events, and his failure to heed lessons from the past continue to haunt the future. |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95797 |
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Lessons can be learned the easy way or the hard way ! The bad thing is that those who pay the price were not always the cause of the problem. I remember from my study of history Henri Pirenne ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henri_Pirenne ) and his look at the "basics"of history. Weather and health-issues are a constant factor in history-that did not stop-but we did forget that on the timeline between history and future the present is like the needle touching a record.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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