Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
1364 quarantined for MERS. More Contsagious? |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Posted: June 03 2015 at 5:47am |
Reading between the lines here, it would appear that MERS has become more contagious and is spreading easier between humans. Looks like it mutated a bit. If we see the cases jump to 50 - 60, I would say a pandemic could be imminent.
South Korea grapples to contain MERS as 1,364 in quarantineHong Kong (CNN)The World Health Organization warned that the MERS outbreak in South Korea is likely to grow, as 1,364 people remained under quarantine Wednesday and confirmed cases grew to 30 people. So far, two people have died after contracting the respiratory virus in South Korea in the largest MERS outbreak outside Saudi Arabia. More than 540 schools have shut to prevent the spread of the virus, according to South Korea's education ministry. The extent of the outbreak in South Korea has taken many by surprise -- mainly because the virus has not been shown to spread easily between humans and the health care system in the country is considered to be sophisticated and modern. South Korean President Park Geun-hye acknowledged problems in the country's early response earlier this week. "Initial reaction for new infectious diseases like MERS is very important, but there were some insufficiency in the initial response, including the judgment on its contagiousness," she said. She convened an emergency MERS meeting on Wednesday. MERS is in the same family of viruses as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) as well as the common cold. However, MERS does not spread easily between humans -- as far as scientists know at this point. "So far, the virus has been circulating in humans for three years," said Dr. Leo Poon, a virology expert at the School of Public Health at the University of Hong Kong, who worked on the SARS outbreak more than a decade ago. "We found little transmission in human. We know there is human-to-human transmission, but it's not sustainable." http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/03/world/south-korea-mers/index.html |
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Kay
Adviser Group Joined: October 22 2014 Location: OHIO Status: Offline Points: 7205 |
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(URGENT) 209 S. Korean schools cancel classes over MERS |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Something interesting in the USA Today article below at the bottom. I'm probably a little slow
<snip> Another man infected with MERS in South Korea traveled to China on May 26, against his doctor's orders, and was diagnosed a hospital in that country three days later. The man had symptoms of MERS during his travel, the WHO said. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/06/02/mers-spreads-south-korea/28373087/ Comment: If that is true, he undoubtedly infected others on the plane. We're probably going to see countries simultaneously reporting cases within a week. Almost a slam dunk. This situation could quickly get out of control in the next few days. They should be tracking everyone on that plane, but it could be too late. This is not to factor the casual contact of others at the airport, let alone the plane itself. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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It gets worse, A. He traveled by bus to China's pandemic virus factory - Guangdong Province - before authorities found him. And his condition is worsening. There are undoubtedly cases in Hong Kong and China that haven't shown yet.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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13 people who had contact with Guangdong MERS patient sought
Xinhua 2015-06-01 13:35 (GMT+8) Authorities in south China's Guangdong province are still trying to reach 13 people who had close contact with the country's first Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) patient. A man from the Republic of Korea was tested positive for the deadly MERS virus in Guangdong on Friday. He is receiving medical treatment in the city of Huizhou with doctors saying his situation has worsened, the provincial health and family planning commission said Sunday. Meanwhile, the number of people who had been in close contact with the patient rose to 77 in Guangdong, the commission said. Among them, 64 have been quarantined while 13 others, including 11 passengers on a bus boarded by the man, have remained out of contact. None of those quarantined has showed any abnormality. The commission said more medical specialists were sent to Huizhou on Sunday to help with the treatment. The man, 44, flew from South Korea to Hong Kong on Tuesday and entered Huizhou via Shenzhen. He had close contact with MERS patients at home and expressed discomfort as early as May 21. The patient is the son of the third confirmed MERS case in South Korea and the brother of the country's fourth confirmed case. MERS is a respiratory illness caused by a new type of coronavirus. The first case was identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012. There is no vaccine or treatment for the disease, which has a fatality rate of 40.7%. http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20150601000080&cid=1103 |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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tiger_deF
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Honestly, even if it spreads in China, the official government will not report cases or even give updates just like SARS and H7N9. By the time they start it will probably have infected tens or hundreds.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Yep - more than likely. We've seen it happen too many times to think this will be any different.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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OriginalHappyCamper
Valued Member Joined: December 25 2013 Location: Silverton, Or Status: Offline Points: 2850 |
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SEOUL—South Korea on early Thursday confirmed five more cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, adding to growing public fears about the spread of the virus that has killed two people in the country.
The five people appear to have contracted the potentially fatal infection through contact with people with the virus, as the new cases comprise health care officials as well as visiting family members and patients who shared hospital wards with previously confirmed MERS patients. The latest cases raise the total number of South Korean MERS patients to 35, including the two deaths. But the country’s health ministry said two of the new patients had no direct contact with the original carrier, raising the possibility of further undetected cases. Some people—including the original carrier—had visited multiple hospitals before testing positive for MERS. The country in recent weeks has been grappling with a rising number of confirmed MERS cases, with the spread raising questions about the South Korean government’s ability to contain the disease. But authorities have said there has been no evidence that it has spread to the local community. The health ministry said Wednesday nearly 1,400 people are under observation. First reported in 2012 in Saudi Arabia, MERS belongs to the same group of viruses as the common cold and severe acute respiratory syndrome, better known as SARS. Symptoms include fever, cough and shortness of breath. An outbreak of this scale outside the Middle East is unprecedented, according to the World Health Organization. The latest MERS cases raise the global count to 1,196, including 481 deaths, based on the latest data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-confirms-five-new-mers-cases-1433381215 |
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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I'm hoping patient zero was a super spreader who went UN-diagnosed for too long and that's why it's exploding in S. Korea! We're only talking 35 cases after almost a week, lets hope that number doesn't increase. If this were pandemic influenza it would already be too late!
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Buy more ammo!
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Whether this will later be categorized as a pandemic or not, it is set to do quite a bit of damage if they don't contain it. They are sequencing to see if the virus has changed, which is a little concerning, especially since they most likely have received the answer by now. I'm still guessing it may spread like how SARS did, but with a decreased possibility of burning itself out. SARS burnt out shortly after it left China. Not sure this one will as it's already been around for 3 years. Simply, once a country gets it, it's probably there to stay. More transmissible than Ebola, but less than the flu. Right in the middle, but with no vaccine.
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Albert- I hope you're wrong but fear you're right! It's spreading in S. Korea like it never has before so something is different!
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Buy more ammo!
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