My property I just moved from is but a few miles east of I 5 Portland/Vancouver so I suppose I'd of been fine? Lol. Although as hot as its been here near Death Valley I think I'd rather take my chances with a 9.2.
Travis EbertOK DUTCH..... Give it to us straight !!! Maybe not a prediction but your "GUT" feeling on when the west coast will see a large scale quake ????
DutchsinseI'm thinking a near 6.0 will be striking Oregon / Northern California this week.. if it comes in across the 5.0 range I won't be shocked.. but upwards of M6.0.
As for a VERY large earthquake, luckily we'll have at least 1-2 days warning signs prior to any large movement.
The real time we have to watch for a large South California earthquake is AFTER we see multiple dormant volcanoes show multiple 3.0m to 4.0m earthquakes.
If you see multiple upper 3 and 4M earthquakes across EASTERN California.. Nevada.. Utah.. Arizona.. and if you see movement in the 5.0 to 6.0 range in the Pacific Northwest.. those are signs of a coming LARGER event, or movement in South California.
In otherwords, a South California earthquake is always preceded by movement in the region which stands out as "odd" in the days before larger movement occurs.
Also.. we'll see steam plumes across the West coast at dormant volcanoes as well.
Each time we've seen steam plumes .. within 2 weeks AFTER the plumes (usually less than 2 weeks) we see a large West coast Earthquake.
As for the Pacific Northwest, and a large earthquake.. again.. we'll have warning signs before hand.
In the case of the Pacific Northwest.. the large movement is ALWAYS preceded by deep earthquakes in the West Pacific Asthenosphere.. and other large earthquakes around the Pacific in the 7.0M range.
If you start seeing upper 6.0 and 7.0 earthquakes in the West Pacific, along with Deep earthquakes in the West Pacific.. watch the Juan De Fuca for a possible greater release event..
The last time we saw deep earthquakes (multiple events) in the West Pacific.. and multiple 7.0M earthquakes in the West Pacific.. it was followed by a swarm of earthquakes off the Coast of Oregon. The happened previously in 2014, 2013, 2012, and 2011.
If you see anything above an 8.0M in the West Pacific.. again.. watch the Pacific Northwest United states for a greater earthquake release along the Juan de Fuca.
Thus, the warning signs for a large West coast earthquake.. whether we're talking Southern California, or the Pacific Northwest.. both locations depend on movement far away in the West Pacific.
In the 1-2 days leading up to the large West coast movement, we normally see OTHER AREAS on the West coast show activity before the larger seismic release... such as the dormant volcanoes having earthquakes, and the steam plume activity at dormant volcanoes.
If we pay attention to the smaller earthquakes here in the United States.. and if we pay attention to the larger earthquakes internationally.. and.. most importantly if we pay attention to the DEPTH of the earthquakes.. we can then see the building pressure taking place, and appropriately warn the people on the West coast.
I PROMISE that when I do my reporting, I will not inflate my warnings, and will explain the process behind the naming of each area that I warn in my forecasts.
My hope is that other people will start to also keep track of the WHERE WHEN and WHY on each earthquake that stands out as "odd". The "odd" earthquakes are the giveaway of coming movement.
Nothing happens by chance, everything happens for a reason when it comes to "seismicity". There is a reason we see dormant volcanoes and fracking operations move BEFORE larger events pop off on the West coast....
Imagine it like this.. building pressure on the West coast spreads out across the North American plate (from the Pacific NW usually).. the "pressure" is coming from the PNW heading towards the East-Southeast.
As the pressure grows, as it tries to spread the inertia of the movement / pressure out evenly across the hodgepodge of the "edge" of the plate.... the weak points begin to release the pressure as much as they can.
The weak points on the edge of the plate are the dormant volcanoes, and drilling operations (and even in some cases deep mining operations).
The weak points across the North American plate act like pressure release valves -- they begin moving in the days before a larger earthquake, also they show movement when the PACIFIC PLATE is moving in the West Pacific!!
Eventually, the pressure becomes too great for these pressure release points to handle.. and we see a short "silence" at the release points across the plate . The dormant volcanoes stop moving.. the fracking operation earthquakes die out.. then.. the pressure BACK FILLS TO THE WEST... like a rubberband rebounding the otherway after being stretched and let go.
When the pressure backfills, that's when the larger movement finally hits, and we see a large West coast earthquake.
The last several times this happened, in 2011, 2012, and 2013... we saw at least one M6.0 along the West coast, even a M7.7 in Vancouver in 2012, or the M6.0 off the coast of Northern California in 2014 (which largely went ignored for some reason).
The mega-quake everyone is worried about will certainly be preceded by a few (at least one) larger event (like Japan in 2011 was hit 3 days before by a 7.2M before the 9.0M hit).
Hope this answers the question. Unfortunately there is not an easy Yes or No to this question.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Having watched the water of my swimming pool thrown out onto the nearby tile decks, the ground roll like in waves, yes, an earthquake can be bad.
Some are selling desert property as potential seaside lots and it is amazing to me when things get boring, then it is "we are about to slide into the ocean."
What it takes is a lot of heat... and rain. For some reason some of us call that earthquake weather. Just like some of the Midwest and South know when a tornado is coming by the clouds, when it is real hot and stormy - they often come.
My house was on top of the San Andreas fault when one hit and it was bad. We barely made it out of the house running and we could not stand up and kept falling down.
Also there are often some warning quakes before. Time will tell.
My "lady" in Tennessee is sure one is coming and I marvel as only 20 miles from here house this happened.
A tornado - Dorothy & Toto style - Wizard of Oz- to me is a lot more scary than a quake. Yes, Mexico City was bad, as well as when some town with really poorly built structures is hit in Japan or a third world country.
Just sayin' .... there are a lot more tornadoes than earthquakes
In the Netherlands we have a "risk map" on wich you can find a lot of information of risks for your area. I do not know how other countries have organized that. http://www.risicokaart.nl/en/
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Greetings all - I have relocated this thread to General Discussion as it bears following closely for awhile, and in terms of getting the word out. A lot of hype about this event, which would be considered the largest natural disaster in U.S. history. The odds are 1 - 10 of this happening, or a 10% chance. That is some serious stuff, and the information, in general, is coming from FEMA. In fact, I believe the New Yorker article was a tool for FEMA to get the word out.
Dutch - you have done a good job tracking this and other potential large earthquakes. I merged a post or two of yours onto this thread, and feel free to copy any of your other pertinent posts over here from Off Topic.
The
science in the article isn’t new. The fact that there are people
outside of the emergency management community talking about this hazard
and their own personal preparedness is a good thing. It’s a
conversation that needs to be had.
If the article got your
attention, then you’ve already taken the first step to get better
prepared, because you are better informed. This is an opportunity to
learn more about the hazards in the Pacific Northwest and how you can
better prepare yourself, your family, and your community. Whether you
live east or west of Interstate 5, we live in a seismically active area
and the worst-case scenario outlined in the article is a real
possibility. One of our jobs as FEMA is to plan for an event of that
size.
Know when there's an earthquake. If you live on the coast, know your evacuation routes.
While
the conversation itself is valuable, don’t let the opportunity to take
action pass you by. Take it further today by making a family emergency
plan and starting your emergency supply kit. For more information about
getting prepared, visit Ready.gov/earthquakes or Ready.gov/tsunamis.
Within its pages is a chilling picture of death and destruction that
would cripple the entire Pacific Northwest, from Northern California to
British Columbia.
More than 10,000 people killed. Bridges, dams, roadways and buildings —
including Oregon's State Capitol in Salem — in a state of utter
collapse. No water, electricity, natural gas, heat, telephone service or
gasoline — in some cases, for months. Economic losses in excess of $30
billion.
The seismically active region has felt temblors before, most notably a massive earthquake and tsunami
in January 1700 that wiped out entire forests in what is now Oregon and
Washington and caused a deadly tsunami in Japan, thousands of miles
across the Pacific Ocean. [Waves of Destruction: History's Biggest Tsunamis]
"This earthquake will hit us again," Kent Yu, chair of the commission
that developed the report, told Oregon legislators, according to the Daily Mail. "It's just a matter of how soon."
That titanic 1700 shaker was a megathrust earthquake on the Cascadia
Fault, a seismic zone that stretches for almost 700 miles (1,100
kilometers) just off the Pacific Northwest coast. Based on current
understanding of the fault's seismic history, scientists estimate quakes
occur along the line roughly every 240 years.
Kent Yu has been banging on this for 2 years and this article even using my "not if but when." You could pick anywhere and find this .. well several places like
Won-Young Kim, who runs the seismographic network for the Northeast at
Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, said the city is
well overdue for a big earthquake.
New York has never experienced a magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake, which
are the most dangerous. But magnitude 5 quakes could topple brick
buildings and chimneys.
Seismologist John Armbruster said a
magnitude 5 quake that happened now would be more devastating than the
one that happened in 1884.
"Today, with so many more buildings and
people ... we'd see billions in damage," Armbruster said. "People would
probably be killed."
comment: perhaps tomorrow - perhaps in a hundred years
All of our disasters are tracked from quite a ways out. The next pandemic may be in 30 years from now, and the quake may be farther out. Or either could be on our door step.
Seems like the quake may be slipping a bit. A recent volcano eruption off the west coast just over 60 days ago, a 3.9 earthquake off the W Coast yesterday, a dormant volcano in Oregon near Bend lets off a plume in the last two weeks, etc.... these things seem to be happening with a little unusual frequency all at once. Pressure building? Maybe it's nothing, or maybe FEMA's timing means something. Who knows.
(CBS SF) — The fault that produced a 4.0-magnitude earthquake in Fremont early Tuesday morning is expected to produce a major earthquake “any day now” and Bay Area residents should be prepared, a U.S. Geological Survey scientist said.
The 2:41 a.m. earthquake on the border of Fremont and Union City occurred on the Hayward Fault at a depth of 5 miles. The epicenter was at a spot just north of the intersection of Niles Canyon Road and Mission Boulevard.
The quake caused some BART delays early Tuesday while work crews checked the tracks, but appears to have caused no major damage. At least 13 smaller quakes or aftershocks had been reported near the same location as of 6:42 a.m., the largest of which was a 2.7-magnitude at 2:56 a.m.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
“We keep a close eye on the Hayward Fault because it does sit in the heart of the Bay Area and when we do get a big earthquake on it, it’s going to have a big impact on the entire Bay Area,” said Tom Brocher, a research geophysicist with the USGS.
The last big earthquake on the fault, estimated to have a 6.8-magnitude, occurred in 1868, according to the USGS.
It killed about 30 people and caused extensive damage in the Bay Area, particularly in the city of Hayward, from which the fault gets its name. Until the larger 1906 earthquake, it was widely referred to as the “Great San Francisco Earthquake.”
“The population is now 100 times bigger in the East Bay, so we have many more people that will be impacted,” said Brocher. “The past five major earthquakes [on the fault] have been about 140 years apart, and now we’re 147 years from that 1868 earthquake, so we definitely feel that could happen any time,” Brocher said.
Brocher urged residents to take steps to prepare for a major earthquake. But he notes that Tuesday morning’s quake was not likely to have much of an impact one way or the other on the likelihood of a major event occurring on the same fault.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Sounds like a "double signal": “The past five major earthquakes [on the fault] have been about 140 years apart, and now we’re 147 years from that 1868 earthquake, so we definitely feel that could happen any time,” versus "But he notes that Tuesday morning’s quake was not likely to have much of an impact one way or the other on the likelihood of a major event occurring on the same fault."
(besides that, this is SW-USA so maybe wrong topic to put it)
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Bill Steele from the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, shared the real threat of a quake with a magnitude 9.0 or higher hitting the Northwest.
A recent article in The New Yorker triggered concerns about a so-called "mega quake" decimating parts of the Pacific Northwest, with little to no warning. Bill Steele from the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network , headquartered at the University of Washington Seismology Lab, shared the real threat of a quake with a magnitude 9.0 or higher hitting the Northwest.
For more information about creating an emergency kit, please CLICK HERE.
One of the state's top emergency managers gave a sobering take on "the big one." Chris Daniels has the story.
Chris Daniels, KING 5 News10:10 p.m. PDT July 21, 2015
SEATTLE - "The Big One" may not occur in the near future, but it's caused some to tremble on social media. The recent New Yorker article about the potential for a catastrophic event in the Puget Sound was also on the agenda at the Washington State Transportation Commission meeting in Seattle on Tuesday.
The commission received a special briefing from emergency managers, who for the most part agreed with much of the New Yorker article and even took it one step further.
"The truth is, we're not ready," said Peter Antolin, Deputy Director of Washington's Emergency Management Division.
He told the commission a 9.0 quake in the Cascadia Subduction Zone would cause significant damage, as the article suggested. However, he dismissed the idea that everything "west of Interstate 5 will be toast."
"Define toast," Antonlin said. "I think the reality is there will be pockets where people will be able to survive."
However, the deputy director said the article brings up a discussion that people in Western Washington need to have.
According to researchers, there has not been a major quake in the Cascadia Subduction Zone since 1700 and these type of major events happen every 300-500 years.
Antolin told the commission a quake that size will last 3-6 minutes and would likely send the road system "into the 1800's."
The state projects that a tsunami created by a large earthquake would flood several coastal communities, but not all of Puget Sound.
"We need more people to be aware of the risk we face and preparedness -- perhaps two weeks of food and water that they can store in their basements or garages," he warned.
Antolin said the state has put together plans to use the Moses Lake Airport as a central staging area, as well as plans for how to handle hospital care.
He added that the state will be better prepared after a four-day, real-time exercise next year. "Cascadia Rising 2016" will take place June 7-10, 2016.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
I'll tell ya.... with this NW disaster being imminent, along with the Bay Area one, and it being a disaster that could be 1 day away, or 50 years away, has the makings for a long term separate forum to be created. Whenever they throw in "it's not a matter of if, but when", indicates the possible need for a long term project / forum, in my view anyway. A forum that will outlive all of us, or a time that it could serve a useful purpose. Ya.... getting that itch again.
Dutch?
The only name we could get awhile back was earthquaketalk.com. Of course all names are currently gone, and I mean all. We also have megaquake.org & quakeinformation.com, but complete wipe out on most all names.
Earthquakeforum.com, tremblertalk.com, tremblerinfo.org ... I think quake is best as that's the most commonly used word but trembler is second. I think it's a good idea in any case as the more we go on the more we are refining the ability to predict and such a site could become more utilized. There is certainly enough activity around the world, including volcanos, hurricanes/typhoons, wet storms and temperature change incidents to pack it full of useful information.
I would say pick the all around best one, lock down as many of the others and run with it. There are a lot of people that this stuff is just habitual to. I am one.
As far as it outliving us all now hold on a minute. I took one of those internet questionnaires and it said I would live to be 111.
(International) Global Transformation Forum (GTF) ? Climate change is driving seismic activity, forrest fires, even illness both humans and (other) animals ? There should also be room for positive notes on how to deal with the changes, discussing other scenario's (ice age ?).
What I like from AFT is that it is global to a certain extend, US, UK, Australia, New Zealand even someone from the Netherlands !
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Hi oneflu and techno. Earthquakeforum and earthshaker are gone. Trembler in the names are available.
Hi Dutch, the forums will always be international / worldwide. It might seem mostly for the U.S., but that's not the intention.
When picking a name, you have to find one that's as short as possible and easiest to remember. In the case of tracking disasters and climate changes, not a lot of names out there. We have Climaters.com, which indicates people following climate changes.
Abreviations ? International Global Look Out ? (IGLO), Tremblers International ? You Tremble ? Forum On earthquakes And other Matters (FOAM) ? Forum Of International Concern on the Enviroment (FOICE) ?
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Anyone else in Southern CA feel the 4.3 preliminary magnitude eq, this morning? Epicenter was near Fontana, CA. I felt it in Northern OC. It woke me up.
A large earthquake has struck along the Fox Islands / Aleutian Island chain off the Coast of Alaska.
Listed originally as a rare “double” earthquake, this earthquake measured in at M6.9 with a depth of 11.9km.
The location of the Earthquake is just 30 miles from Cleveland volcanic complex. Cleveland volcano has recently sent off a few ash plumes, thus this earthquake might be the sign of a coming larger eruption in the area.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8T2M8eVNQs Dutchsinse also mentions the activity in Oregon, Nevada region. This seismic activity followed deep (4.8 and 5.0)quakes earlier near Tonga and Fiji (on july 26 a 4.6 at almost 600 kilometres).
For most of the past three years, I’ve worked as a book critic, which is not a job that affords me many opportunities to scare the living daylights out of my readers. (Authors, occasionally; readers, no.) But earlier this month, when a story I wrote about a dangerous fault line in the Pacific Northwest hit the newsstands, the overwhelming response was alarm. “Terrifying,” the story kept getting called; also “truly terrifying,” “incredibly terrifying,” “horrifying,” and “scary as *****.” “Don’t read it if you want to go back to sleep,” one reader warned. “It’s hard to overhype how scary it is,” Buzzfeed said. “New Yorker scares the bejesus out of NW,” the Seattle Post-Intelligencer wrote.
Novelists and screenwriters can terrify people, feel pretty good about themselves, and call it a day. But for journalists, or at least this one, fear is not an end in itself. At best, it is a means to an end, a way to channel emotion into action. To achieve that, however, you need to navigate between the twin obstacles of panic (which makes you do all the wrong things) and fatalism (which makes you do nothing). In an effort to help people to do so, I’ve answered, below, some of the questions I’ve heard most often since the story was published, and also provided a little advice about how best to prepare for the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami, and their aftermath.
Who will be affected by the earthquake?
The Cascadia subduction zone runs from Cape Mendocino, California, to Vancouver Island, Canada. Those who live anywhere in that region and west of the Cascade Mountains are at risk—but how much risk and what kind varies considerably, based on where exactly you live in relationship to the fault line, how susceptible your area is to liquefaction and landslides, what kind of structure you’re in when the quake occurs, and your local seismic codes. In general, however, the shaking will be strongest on the coast and diminish somewhat as you move inland.
It’s maddeningly difficult to find a good map of the entire region showing relative risk. But here’s one, courtesy of the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI), that shows the actual shake map from the 2011 earthquake in Tohoku, Japan, and the anticipated one for the state of Oregon from the full Cascadia earthquake:
The lightest shaking, indicated here in pale green, will be just strong enough to wake people out of sleep and knock over unsecured objects. That intensity will gradually increase as you move west; in the hardest-hit areas, indicated by dark red, the shaking will be strong enough to seriously damage even well-built structures.
Here’s another map, courtesy of the Washington State Seismic Hazards Catalog, that shows expected shaking intensity in Washington. (The color scheme has changed but the gist is the same: here, the cooler colors indicate lighter shaking, the warmer ones greater intensity.) As you can see, the zones of severity basically extend in parallel vertical bands across the region.
Finally, here’s a map for Vancouver Island, Canada. (This one shows peak ground acceleration—a different metric than intensity, but one that also captures the relative severity of the earthquake across the region.)
Who is at risk from the tsunami?
Only those who are inside the inundation zone when the earthquake strikes. That zone is as long as the fault line—seven hundred miles, from California to Canada—but very narrow. Exactly how far inland the zone extends varies considerably, not only with the size of the earthquake but also with the shape and height of the coastline and factors like the presence of rivers (which function as hoses, creating a narrower channel in which the water will travel further). At most, however, the tsunami will reach just three miles inland.
The problem, of course, is that the narrow band of the inundation zone corresponds to the most popular and populous places on the coast: the area where homes, businesses, and tourists all tend to congregate. Yet within that area, the devastation will be almost total. DOGAMI is in the process of compiling maps that will indicate the inundation zone and evacuation routes for every Oregon coastal town, as well as note the estimated wave-arrival times at various places in each town, together with the estimated time needed to reach high ground. In the meantime, most places on the Pacific Northwest coast have an evacuation map (like this one, for the towns of Seaside and Gearhart, which appear in the original article). Google the relevant map before you visit; memorize it if you live there.
Some readers wondered if Seattle is vulnerable to the tsunami because of its location on the Puget Sound; it is not. (That city and others could experience some seiches, mini-tsunamis in lakes and other inland bodies of water, but those would be just a few feet tall, at most—and they should be correspondingly low on the list of things to worry about.) Nor will other major cities along the I-5 corridor be directly affected by the tsunami. (Another reader wondered if those in Hawaii should be nervous. Nope: the western half of the Cascadia tsunami will miss the Hawaiian Islands by a wide margin. It will hit Japan, but by then it will have lost most of its height—and Japan, a highly tsunami-ready nation, will have more than enough advance warning to protect its citizens.) If you’re wondering if some other location is safe or at risk, you can enter the address in this handy tsunami-evacuation-zones Web site.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Schulz notes that her original story scared a lot of people. She re-statesthe odds: that in the next 50 years, there's a 30 percent chance of a magnitude-8 to 8.6 Cascadia earthquake, and a 10 percent chance of a magnitude-8.7 to 9.2 quake. She reports that the tsunami will reach at most three miles inland, but is expected to exact by far the highest death toll: nearly one in five people who are in the inundation zone when the towering waves arrive.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
The guy predicting this "megaquake" has been doing so for years. Now they are doing the same in Nevada because a lot of tremors over the last year. In California we rarely see warnings when there is a big quake. When I was in Morgan Hill, almost on top of the fault, we got no warning until all of our 13 cats ran off and the horses starting trying to jump the fence. They have been predicting that LA would slip into the sea and that places in the desert would be seaside property. The news today is infinitely boring except for coverups of the Ebola outbreak, MERS, and a really nasty situation in the Middle East which in simply not in the headlines.
This quake will not be in California. It is far north in a much deeper fault and as I said, the guy has been at this for a year predicting a major quake. Must be grant renewal time.
"From analysis of the data to date, the activity appears to be primarily associated with a fault, or faults, dipping steeply to the southeast and striking north-northeast," Smith said.
A swarm of thousands of little earthquakes could also lead to a big one.
Three magnitude 7.0 earthquakes each century and one magnitude 6.0 or larger each decade are expected in Nevada. The last "big one" was the Dixie Valley/Fairview Peak event east of Fallon that hit in 1954 with two magnitude 7 earthquakes that came four minutes apart.
Nevada is the third most seismically active state in the country behind California and Alaska.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Seismologists in Japan expected that the maximum earthquakestrenght that could hit Japan would be under M8. The were wrong in 2011. Since then new knowledge made clear that the maximum strength for Japan/west pacific, given the geological structures, could be up to a M11.
The NorthWest of the U.S. had a M8,5/9,2 in 1700. It is one of the "weak spots" in the pacific-ring (just like Alaska, Japan, New Zealand, Chili, Mexico).
I do not believe that an earthquake can be "calculated" and put in a forecast for a 100%, it might be to complex. But I do think that the chances for a major earthquake (M8,5+) are increased (for a number of reasons, new distribution of pressure due to less ice on Greenland, Antarctica, mountains/north, but also a "natural" increase of seismic activity).
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
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