Current Phase of Alert Issued by the WHO

As Americans are becoming increasing aware of avian flu I feel the time to quarantine will be apparent to all.
The medical profession will be the first to sound the alarm, doctors are just as fearful of the potenial danger and most acutely aware of the virulence of this flu.
Once it hits, the news media will be featuring this concern 24/7.

I see only two options, quarantine now, if you feel that the contagious stage is up to three weeks without symptoms or wait until the first US case is announced. I will choose the latter.

Rick is on target as to where to purchase N95 masks. I have purchased several cases without a problem from a medical supplies store. And the price is reasonable, $130.00/ case of 100.

Practicing 20 second hand washing, keeping hands away from your face and vigilant use of hand sanitizer is our best defense presently.

Mary Kay RN

Trigger,

The Nano-Mask is good but at $10.00 each you can do just as well with a 3M N-95 for .30 each for a 30 pack.

The point is to prevent virus laden droplets from entering your nose and mouth. Masks are also good if your sick to prevent you from contaminating others. Also, it is a way to remind you not to touch you nose or mouth with contaminated hands.

Droplets can easily travel 3 feet in a sneeze. The H5N1 has been shown to live for several hours on inanimate objects such as doorknobs and keyboards. Nitrile gloves will help.

Don't forget that the H5N1 can also gain entrance through the eyes. A good pair of safety glasses or goggles will help. One more route is through eating. Be sure that any consumed chicken, duck or pig is well done.

Good Day my Friend

Bannor,

Check here for the 3M masks or just Google 3M N95.

http://store.yahoo.com/filtera/3mmod80n95pa.html

BamaSteve,

See this site for the H5N1 Time Line and dates of Waves 1-3

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/Timeline_28_1 0a.pdf

See this site for the current phase of the WHO pandemic alert and the criteria for each phase.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/inde x.html

Good Day My Friend

Yikes - All this CBRN SCBA talk is over the top.

CBRN (Chemical, Biologic, Radioactive, Nuclear) SCBA (Self Contained Breathing Apparatus) is for trained first responders. There is no need for an everyday H5 Prepper to have a SCBA.

I agree that an N-95 is an N-95. The point is to keep H5 virus laden droplets out of your eyes, nose, mouth and stomach.

If you'll be around infected birds or H5 symptomatic people (within 3 ft) you may want to protect yourself with a good N-95 mask. If you will be near to or treating H5 ill people, it would be wise to wear appropriate single-use. personal protective clothing. Such as:

Disposable tyvek coverall with hood, protective glasses or goggles, N-95 mask, nitile gloves and latex boot covers and do a good self decon with a Purcell type cleaner. This gear can be found online (please don't use e-bay stuff). It will cost about $15.00 a day for single-use clothing.

Talk to a nurse or doctor who has treated an infectious patient and ask about "isolation" and "reverse isolation" techniques. Medical professionals have been dealing with H2H infections for years with little self-contamination.

Read about viral shedding to learn how to avoid virus laden material.

Lots of dusty N-95's at my local Home Depot. H5 isn't a real problem until it gets to Mayberry.

Just found these categories in a Financial Impact story about H5N1 Pandemic. I have'nt seen the "Ultra" before. But it makes sense if there are the expected 4+ waves of new infections per geographic area per year and if cross-contamination is wide-spread.

See this CNN story for more information:

http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/02/15/birdflu.cost /index.html

The Lowy Institute's report, titled Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza, looks at four possible scenarios:

Mild, in which the pandemic is similar to the 1968-69 Hong Kong flu;

Moderate, similar to the 1957 Asian flu;

Severe, similar to the 1918-19 Spanish flu (which infected an estimated 1 billion people and claimed as many as 50 million lives);

An "ultra" scenario that is worse than the Spanish flu outbreak.

..mmmmmmmm.......better get a bug zapper cause we're all giong to be needing them soon if the birds aren't around to eat the tons of insects every year.

Welcome Hobby,

I've placed an excerpt from an article titled, "How Humans Can Get Bird Flu" that you may find interesting.

During the Indonesia outbreak several weeks ago there was some stories about human-to-human infections. This was probably wrong since it involved children within the same family who were all exposed to sick birds.

The link for the whole story is: http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/headline/f111022006 .html

"....Of all influenza viruses that circulate in birds, the H5N1 virus is of greatest present concern for human health for two main reasons. First, the H5N1 virus has caused by far the greatest number of human cases of very severe disease and the greatest number of deaths. It has crossed the species barrier to infect humans on at least three occasions in recent years: in Hong Kong in 1997 (18 cases with six deaths), in Hong Kong in 2003 (two cases with one death) and in the outbreaks that began in December 2003 and were first recognised in January 2004.

A second implication for human health, of far greater concern, is the risk that the H5N1 virus –– if given enough opportunities –– will develop the characteristics it needs to start another influenza pandemic. The virus has met all prerequisites for the start of a pandemic save one: an ability to spread efficiently and sustainably among humans. While H5N1 is presently the virus of greatest concern, the possibility that other avian influenza viruses, known to infect humans, might cause a pandemic cannot be ruled out."

For certain there have been human to human transfers of Sichuan Sheet, but little positive confirmation of same.  There has always been suspicion of possible bird contact from the second infected party.  Still some of the cases are rather hard to disprove from a H2H standpoint.

The important thing is that there is little or no B2H2H2H spread.

When we see H2H2H2H, THEN we have us a problem.  THAT is when the scale will be raised to four and then to five a day later.....

Thank you  Libbyalex!

I've been coming to this site several times a day in the last week. Just went to the WHO's website and as usall not much of an update.

Little concerned with whats going on in Nigeria, read on CNN homepage that the birds that are being killed over there, that the people are getting them and eating them. I understand there hungry, but geeze this could also fire up this pandemic.

Doug wrote:  Burning is a very efficient way of spreading the virus. I fact, there has been articles about suspending human cremations if a pandemic breaks out in the U.S.

Doug, I didn't know this. Is this true? And how exactly does this happen? Doesn't heat kill the virus? Could you explain it a bit? If so,  what would happen when burning infected garbage from human victims of pandemic influenza? -- Libby

Siameselade and Libbyalex,

Yes, cooking the bird/pig etc will kill the virus.

Cooking is a controlled environment and the whole piece of meat is thoroughly cooked. Burning a pile of birds if a caotic environment with hot spots and cool spots within the fire. The resultant heat lifts pieces of bird into the wind.

The information I referenced concerning cremations is from an article from the New Zealand Herlad Dated January 25th, 2006. There are a couple of reasons that bodies will be buried vs. cremation. I've attached the article  and a link:

------------------------------------------------------------ --------------

Grieving at home in flu scenario

The dead are unlikely to be cremated during a bird flu pandemic, and body bags will be used if caskets run out.

A draft plan is being finalised this week by the Funeral Directors Association, Government agencies and local authorities to deal with the projected number of casualties.

It will see a prohibition on public funerals in a bid to curb the spread of disease.

Simon Manning, the association's chairman of pandemic planning, said no church services or tangi will take place, as public funerals were a factor in Spanish flu's spread in 1918. Grieving will instead take place in the home.

Any death during a pandemic - bird flu or not - would be dealt with within 48 hours, said Mr Manning.

New Zealand does not have enough freezing capacity to deal with a projected 33,000 deaths, so the 48-hour period allows for bodies to be handled safely and interred without refrigeration.

Mr Manning said cremation is unlikely because two doctors are required to sign off the cremation papers; one of which will need to be the deceased's doctor. During a widespread pandemic, locating them may prove difficult, he said.

The police may also need to disinter the body where suspicious circumstances arise after the pandemic, he said.

There are also question marks around the supply of piped gas to crematoriums.

The association has approached the Government about providing funeral grants worth about $4500 to cover the cost of each burial.

"It will be unreasonable, we believe, for families to be ending up with a bill for something that they haven't necessarily requested," said Mr Manning.

While cemeteries have the capacity, there may not be enough caskets for all bodies.

In 1918, canvas was used to wrap the dead when caskets ran out. Mr Manning said body bags, which are more sanitary and easier to handle, would be used.

Funeral Directors Association members, which look after 85 per cent of deaths in New Zealand, have also been told to train extra staff over the next 12 months.

Members have been told to calculate the workforce needed for their own companies based on projected workload and a 60 per cent absenteeism rate.

Mr Manning's Harbour City Funeral Home in Wellington has 15 staff, but he is looking at having 100 extra casuals trained up for a pandemic. Training will start now, and will include an explanation of what they're likely to encounter during a pandemic, he said.

Mr Manning said if someone dies at home during a pandemic, the first thing to do is to contact a funeral director.

* * *

Best advice, from Dr Tom Miller:
Wash and dry your hands

The series in the Herald preparing the public for the possibility of a bird flu epidemic is highly recommended reading.

One message worth emphasising is that community awareness of hygiene issues, particularly hand hygiene, will have a major impact on limiting the spread of the disease.

A statement that human influenza virus is spread from person to person mainly by an infected person coughing or sneezing needs qualifying.

Much of the present evidence on the spread of respiratory infections suggests that touch contact with a virus contaminated object or surface and the subsequent transfer of the virus to receptive tissues is the more common way for the virus to be spread.

Picture an infected person smothering a sneeze with a hand and then picking up a phone, opening a door, using a bank keyboard or shaking hands. The likelihood of an infectious dose of virus been transferred to the next user is high.

Community recognition of the role of hand hygiene in breaking this cycle will be extremely important. The key is a 20-second wash under running tap water followed by careful and conscientious hand drying. Our research has shown that moisture on the hands greatly enhances the opportunity for microbial transfer and acquisition through touch contact.

Hand hygiene is therefore a two-step process and leaving the washroom with wet hands is inviting the transfer of tens of thousands of micro-organisms at the next point of hand contact.

The Ministry of Health's advice to wash and dry hands regularly and carefully is a message that will need constant reinforcement.

Dr Tom Miller, Department of Medicine University of Auckland

* * *

Death during a pandemic
* If someone dies at home, contact your funeral director, who will get the death certificate, and arrange for the body's transportation, and burial.
* Burial, as against cremation, will most likely be used.
* Cremation requires two doctors to sign off cremation papers. One of them will need to be the deceased's doctor, and locating them may be difficult when medical resources are stretched.
* A death may happen in suspicious circumstances, and police may need to disinter a body to gather evidence. Evidence is destroyed during cremation.
* Question marks also remain over the supply of piped gas to fire the crematoriums.
* There are enough funeral plots for the projected 33,000 dead, but there may not be enough caskets. If caskets run out, body bags will be used.

Does the Centers for Disease Control have pandemic threat level assessment like the one on World Health Organisation(WHO)

I am so glad to have found out that there are others out there preparing and wondering why we are not readily being told more.  We have been searching sites for months and keeping a watchful eye on the progress of the bird flu.  We have talked to numerous people, friends, family, even strangers, and the results are alarming.  They plain don't care.  They believe that we will be informed in plenty of time to get prepared, and are not going to do it now (they look at us like we are crazy)  if the virus should mutate.  We (I) don't believe that we would have that much time to prepare if the worst occurs.  Best to prepare and feel silly later for having prepared so well, and have nothing happen, than to not prepare at all, and the virus mutates and finds its way to our front doors.  Thank you for listening and thank you for being here.  It is good to know that there are others out there that are watching and preparing.  We are not alone.     

I use Purell at my desk.

Thanks folks, had to Google that one (not a brand we get in Australia). It's an alcohol-based handwash right? I'll look for a local equivalent.

level three?  I wonder if trying to contain this outbreak will do any good in the long run, they just barely got sars under control and they feel they might not be so lucky with this.  could it be we have just met our match?

Every time a case is suspected, WHO take a sample to test, assumming the victim has had the virus for upto 4 days, then add the 16 days for the sample to be sent to the UK tested and the results to be sent back and then WHO will announce the results.... that's upto 20 days, with current travel trends if the results are H2H, a very large part of the worlds population could already be infected. So what's the answer?

Welcome Andy,

Good point. A person with H5N1 has early symptoms that are the same as the yearly flu. Everyone with those symptoms would have to be isolated ??!?. I hope that is not in any town's plans.

A person with H5 will be infectious 2 days before symptoms appear (we can't do much about that except 24/7 N95 masking). They will be most contagious 2 days after the first symptoms (fever, cough) appear. They will remain contageous for 3 weeks after all symptoms disappear (which could be 6 weeks later).

Here is a list of H5N1 symptoms. The current fatality rate is 55% even with the best hospital care. All symptoms are more severe than for regular flu:

Fever (101+), Chills, Muscle Aches, Dizziness, Fatigue, Cough (severe), Sore Throat, Runny Nose, Era infection, Bloody Diarrhea, Nose Bleeds, Bleeding Gums, Bloody Sputum (copious), Chest Congestion, Difficulty Breathing, Pneumonia (viral and bacterial), and Multi-Organ Failure.

Refer to the Medical Section of this forum for loads of good information about avoiding the virus.

Glad you are here.

  

Welcome Andy and Kelly, it good to have you join us. Holler at one of us if you have any questions, we shall try to answer them or will find the answer for you