Current Phase of &#065;lert Issued by the WHO

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Posted: March 06 2006 at 2:32pm

Oh, I have been stocking up on water. I have purchased several large containers to fill with water, if and when the time comes. I will do as you have said as well..fill everything in sight..including the kitchen sink. LOL. Thanks!! On the ball!

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Posted: March 06 2006 at 2:50pm

Kelly,

I just worry about what to do if the electricity goes out. We don't have a generator or anything like that. At least we could cook on the grill.

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Posted: March 06 2006 at 3:09pm

Well, here is our plan. We have a grill, we have a camping stove but for most of our cooking..we will be using our wood stove because we can use it inside. I have tried it and it works. You cannot really regulate the heat that much but you can cook on it..just have to stay with it. I purchase some cast iron pans for this purpose. They hold the heat better. Harder to burn. Plus we are designing a make-shift stove cover for baking. Not sure how that will work out but better than nothing at all. Just going to use some metal to make a box, basically.

We do not have a generator, either and we do not plan to get one for one reason. They are noisy and others will know that we have one. This could be a bad thing if things should get really nasty. We have plenty of wood for the stove..so we won't be cold. Candles for light. We have flash lights and plenty of batteries but these we will use to a minimal because they won't last forever. If all else fails, we have trees..and we will cut them down, if we need the additional wood.

I worry also. You are not alone there. We just have a plan. When we go camping, we use tents and really rough it. We are used to using other methods, including an open fire, for cooking.

I have to tell you though. I worry more about having to go dirty (LOL) and not being able to bath regularly, than how we are going to eat and stay warm...now that we are prepared and have a plan in place. But I will just think of it as a very longgggg camping trip..and that when I get home (when things get back to normal) then I can get a nice warm bath and feel clean again. LOL. I know, it's silly, but I don't like being dirty for a long time. I can get out there in the garden or yard and play in the dirt with the best of them, but then I want to get clean again. I currently wash my hair and bath every day. There won't be enough water for daily bathing, unfortunatley, but we will be able to wash ourselves... sponge bathes..and perhaps weekly baths, if we are lucky.

I won't like not being able to communicate with the outside world.. Won't like going without electricity..but we won't have any other options, so we will just have to deal with it, I guess.

Good luck to you. Take care.

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Posted: March 07 2006 at 2:50am

Now back to the topic.

Anything new?Any more reported/unreported cases of B2H,H2H?

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Posted: March 07 2006 at 4:24am

Kelly,

One thing I am going to buy is the soap and water wipes(kindof like baby wipes). I cannot remember the exact name of them but they use them for people that are bed ridden. So at least it will be like a sponge bath. Btter than nothing and it sure wont be warm. We do have a fire place . We haven't used much firewood this year so we are stocked up there. At least we are on the up turn with the temps here.

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Posted: March 07 2006 at 8:02am

Great ideas!! I had purchased some of the baby wipes and alcohol wipes but really only thought of them as hand wipes. I suppose even they could be used to wash other parts, arms, legs, neck, face. Alcohol wipes may be too harsh for face and neck though. I'll get more baby wipes..for sure. LOL. Thank you.

I am also glad that temps are on their way up. Tired of the cold this year.

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Posted: March 10 2006 at 8:19am

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Posted: March 13 2006 at 10:51am

It is simply not possible to confuse an infection that is old with a new and presumably fatal infection. Especially if you are using serum antibody tests. The titers tell you quite plainly if it is a new infection or an old infection. I don't know what motivates people to engage in conspiracy theory. I will state what I know. A pandemic form of influenza is likely to occur. It will come from Southeast Asia, because of human population densities there and the people there live closely with pigs and chickens. A containment strategy to contain the illness is the best possibility to halt the spread of the illness and to minimize mortality. This strategy likely will not work, because the illness can be communicated to other people before those that are already infected realize they are sick. Though we are presently talking about "Bird" flu, the illness that will cause the disruption and chaos we all imagine will be an airborne infection, and it will be spread person to person. Your pet birds will be safe from it, and they may live long after we do. Our next, best hope to prevent morbidity from the illness is to vaccinate people against the illness. We do not presently have a vaccine for human to human transmission of influenza H5N1. Viet Nam has claimed to have one. I do not know of any clinical trials. Vaccine is presently made by innoculating chicken eggs with virus that is weakened and producing a serum for injection. H5N1 has been especially hard on chickens. Few people have mentioned that there may not be enough eggs to produce a vaccine. But it is probably a moot point. By the time we have isolated the virus that causes human illness and begin production we will be behind the power curve by at leasty six weeks. Then we have to distribute the vaccine and begin to deal with distribution systems that are beginning to fail due to incapacity due to sickness. Then we have to vaccinate people and deal with the lack of trained health care workers that can give an injection because of the illness. The next best stategy to combat the illness is to impose an isolation policy on people or to choose to isolate yourself for a period of about six weeks once the illness affects your community. Preperation is going to make that isolation tolerable.

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Posted: March 18 2006 at 10:35am

Concerning baby wipes/body wipes, I plan on gathering the ingredients to make my own. You can find how to make baby wipes online and I will adapt the instructions to be appropriate for sweaty adults, i.e. use deodorant soap instead of baby soap, etc. This project has not made it to the top of my priorty list- I'm just getting started on basics- food, TP and the like. I will wait until I expect to need these wipes to combine the ingredients with the paper towels. I'm sure these will be less expensive than ready made wipes and will not dry out before I need them. I must purchase a sealable container- may be a "koolaid pitcher with a lid" for an upright roll or a plastic shoe box with a lid for folder paper towels. This little project will keep me busy once we are asked to stay home.

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Posted: March 18 2006 at 10:39am

That's a great idea. I think that we are all planning projects to keep ourselves from going insane while couped up inside. Kids are especially worrisome. Games, paper, pens, colored pencils, markers, craving knives, glue, etc..for small projects and fun!!! Don't forget to have some fun. Take care. Peace.

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Posted: March 18 2006 at 1:46pm

Upcoming

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, Secretary of Health & Human Services,
Mike Leavitt, and Secretary of the Interior, Gale Norton, will discuss
preparations for avian influenza in the U.S.

The briefing will include details of the expanded migratory bird
monitoring system, and an update on response plans in the event of an
outbreak among domestic birds. Secretary Leavitt will discuss public
health preparedness.

When:
Monday, March 20, 2006 1:00 p.m. EST

The event will also be available via live web cast from the
PandemicFlu.gov Web site.

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/

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Posted: March 19 2006 at 10:12am

Really good graphic pointede out to me by the good people at
http://influenzapandemic.blogspot.com/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2006/03 /18/ GR2006031800307.html

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Posted: March 19 2006 at 11:14am

keegs2 wrote:

Thomas Angel

Don't you think that millions of people dying will have a negative effect on the financial system? So many people not going to work will definately have a negative impact! I am glad your here too

In the long run, well, that's pretty much self-evident that it's going to. They aren't concerned with the long run right now, probably rolling around in some delusional state thinking they can solve that when it happens. They are looking at the short term effects, what will happen today , tommarrow, and the next week or two right now, and trying to "get a handle on" just that. I'm sure some fine plans are being discussed...But half the planet dying doesn't concern them much at the moment.

I LIKE SCARY RIDES

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Posted: March 19 2006 at 12:15pm

Hey HARPMANDOODDLE,

Itried to get on the washington post site that you said to check out but I could not get on.

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Posted: March 20 2006 at 1:48am

Apologies keegs2, but the cut&paste puts spaces in the link. Remove the
spaces afteer '03' and before 'GR'

One day I'll get it to work via the buttons but it does not behave for me.

HD

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Posted: March 20 2006 at 8:37am

harpmandoodle's link now works

I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.

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Posted: March 21 2006 at 11:01pm

Time Line on H5N1 Bird Flu Pandemic Move to Phase 6 -

20 june 2005

Recombinomics Commentary
June 20, 2005

Since the 2005 flu pandemic is entering the final phase 6, a review of the H5N1 pandemic timeline is useful. H5N1 progressed in Asia from a bird flu in 1996 to a human pandemic in 2005.

H5N1 was first detected in Asia in 1996 in a duck from Guangdong Province, which moved the pandemic to phase 2.

The following year there were 18 human cases of H5N1 in Hong Kong, including 6 deaths. This moved the pandemic into phase 3 defined by human infections. The H5N1 was similar to the 1996 goose isolate in H and N. The H had a poly-basic cleavage site and the N had a 19 amino acid deletion. However, the new strain was a reassortant, with several internal genes that matched genes from H9N2 and H6N1 isolates. In addition there was evidence for recombination, with polymorphisms normally found in mammalian isolates. The acquisition of these polymorphisms was called "humanization".

The pandemic moved into early phase 4 when antibodies to H5N1 were found in health care workers. These health care workers did not show signs of illness, indicating the virus could transmit to humans, but very inefficiently. All poultry in Hong Kong was culled, eliminating this particular constellation of genes.

Between 1997 and 2003 H5N1 did considerable evolution via recombination and some reassortment and in 2003 it re-emerged in humans. The human cases were a Hong Kong family vacationing in Fujian province. The daughter died in China, but the father and son returned to Hong Kong. The father died, but H5N1 was isolated from both. The H5N1 was similar to the 1997 version in H, but there was no deletion in N and the constellation of genes was designated as the Z+ genotype. In addition, the M2 had an amantadine resistant change at position 31 in the M2 gene. However, this gene was more closely related to M2 from amantadine resistant swine isolates. The human cases were limited to the family, keeping the pandemic at early phase 4.

In 2004 H5N1 exploded across Asia. There were reported bird infections in China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia (as well as several additional countries in the area where no virus was isolated and sequenced). In addition, there were human cases in Vietnam and Thailand. The various isolates were similar to 2003, but had a 20 amino acid deletion in NA. This deletion overlapped the 19 amino acid deletion seen in 1997, but was slightly further downstream.

This constellation of genes was designated as the Z genotype. Although all of the genes were similar, there were regional differences in all of the isolates. A very small number had the amantadine resistant marker at position 31, but were more distant from the earlier swine isolates. In contrast, all isolates from Vietnam and Thailand were amantadine resistant at position 31 and they had a second marker at position 26. The second marker was not found in any isolates outside of Vietnam and Thailand. In addition, these isolates from Vietnam and Thailand had a number of polymorphisms not seen in the other H5N1 isolates. These markers were found in mammalian isolates. The only reported human H5N1 cases in 2004 were in Vietnam and Thailand.

In 2004 the pandemic phase moved solidly into phase 4 with human-to-human transmission resulting in death. There were several small familial clusters of 2-4 family members. All of these clusters were bimodal. Additional family members would develop symptoms 5-10 days after the index case. One of the largest clusters was in Thai Binh in January 2004, involving a groom and his two sisters. All three died. The two sisters had cared for their brother. The most well documented transmission was in Thailand last summer. The pattern was the same, but the index case was living with her aunt and the mother was several hundred miles away in a Bangkok office. The mother developed symptoms after she visited her daughter in the hospital. The aunt also became infected. Only the aunt survived. Thus, human-to-human transmission of a fatal H5N1 was well established in 2004. The case fatality rate in 2004 was approximately 70% in Vietnam and Thailand, at the beginning and middle of 2004.

The pandemic moved to phase 5 at the beginning of 2005. There were reported outbreaks in birds in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia. The reported human cases were limited to Vietnam and Cambodia. However, the demographics began to change within Vietnam. The southern cases had a case fatality rate approaching 100%, while the fatality rate in northern Vietnam fell to 10-20%. The cases in the north also covered a wider age range and the clusters grew larger. Transmission extended to health care workers and five members of a single family tested positive for H5N1, but all recovered.

This change in demographics and size of clusters was accompanied by genetic recombination which created a version in the north with an HA cleavage site found in China and Japan in 2003 and 2004. This newer version of H5N1 was found in northern Vietnam and Thailand, although Thailand did not report human cases in 2005. A second version of H5N1 was found in southern Vietnam and Cambodia, where the case fatality rate was close to 100%, but clusters were smaller and less frequent.

This month there has been a new outbreak in northern and central Vietnam. The cases are again milder, but now the number of cases has jumped markedly, with 28 cases admitted this month. Many of most have no history of exposure to dead poultry, and most of the poultry is raised in the south, where there are also new cases of H5N1 in chickens. The large increase of mild cases in at least 6 provinces in northern and central Vietnam may represent a small percentage of the H5N1 infection because these patients have a milder disease, and more non-hospitalized H5N1 infections are likely. Thus, although the increased admissions may signal phase 6, the fatality rate is markedly below the rate in the south or the rate in 2004.

In addition to the new outbreaks in Vietnam, there have been two significant outbreaks in western China. The first outbreak was discovered in early May at Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve. Initially the deaths were limited to 180 bar headed geese, but quickly rose to over 1000 dead birds representing at least 5 species of migratory birds. This outbreak was unusual in size and the fact that the H5N1 confirmed infection was lethal in geese. The outbreak in Qinghai was followed by an outbreak of domestic geese in Tacheng near the Kazakhstan border in Xinjiang, China. This H5N1 confirmed outbreak again involved lethal infections in geese.

The two outbreaks in western China were accompanied by third party reports on infections in humans. In Qinghai there were reports of deaths of 6 tourists and 121 residents in 18 communities. The reports of human cases have been denied by China, but new fever clinics were established. Another third party report described a pneumonia outbreak involving patients and health care workers in Tacheng. China again denied human cases. WHO requested permission to visit Qinghai, but there have been no reports of that request being granted.

The large number of reported human cases in Qinghai and the isolation of health care workers in Tacheng would signal phase 6, if confirmed. It is likely that the H5N1 would be carried to Kazakhstan and Russia by the migrating birds, although there have not been reports of H5N1 in the neighboring countries.

Thus, at this time it looks like H5N1 is moving from phase 5 to phase 6 in northern Vietnam, and may be doing the same in western China, if reports of human fatalities are accurate.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06200502/H5N1_Pandemic_Timeline.html

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Posted: March 23 2006 at 8:15pm

there is a wonderful advanced machine in huntsville al that can confirm the virus in 4 hrs. we just got a look at it in the Tennessee State Guard at summit hospital. check it out!! this peice of equipment is amazing.

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Posted: March 27 2006 at 10:57pm

The last couple of times I visited the WHO website, I couldn't find the page showing the current alert level. Have they moved it?

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Posted: March 28 2006 at 8:20am

I haven't been able to find it either. ???

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Posted: March 28 2006 at 9:05am

Yeah, I went to their site also and searched everywhere and could not find it either. The last update was on 03/24. I would think they would update this site everyday. Makes me wonder why they have not and why there not posting the current alert level.

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