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Can hurricanes destroy the US ? |
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Dutch Josh 
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 Posted: October 08 2017 at 1:28am |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects Wikipedia is changing the damage from "Maria" several times now. From 90,000 milion US$ to 15,000 now they put it at 31,200 million US$.
Depends on wath you include. https://www.rt.com/business/405906-oil-platforms-shut-tropical-storm/ and https://www.businessinsider.nl/hurricane-irma-and-harvey-jobs-report-effect-2017-10/?international=true&r=US. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/puerto-ricans-could-be-newest-u-s-climate-refugees/ People and companies in area's with high hurricane/extreme weather risks will move. It is to early to say what damage "Nate" may bring. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/nate-sweeps-across-us-gulf-coast see also https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/reports-strengthening-hurricane-nate-bares-down-on-us-gulf-coast/70002930
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 07 2017 at 9:46pm |
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/080252.shtml
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FKVtv2csUY BPEarthWatch; "Nate" fastest moving storm on record-up to 26 miles per hour. MrMBB333-"Nate"extreme cold top- (-90C/-120F) bringing hail, tornado's, rain-mostly east of New Orleans. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxYOVi-VMB8 and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZJBcwFCmjg "very unusual hurricane, no eye ?" Nate makes a hyperactive 2017 hurricane season even more notableNate is the ninth hurricane of this hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, giving it the most hurricanes since 2012. This makes 2017 tied for the 15th most hurricanes on record, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University). Nate is also the ninth consecutive named storm this year to reach hurricane strength (preceded by Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, and Maria.) The last time nine or more consecutive named storms became hurricanes was in 1893, when ten did so. If Nate makes landfall as a hurricane in the U.S., it will mark the first time since 2008 that three hurricanes have hit the U.S. mainland. In 2008, Hurricane Dolly made landfall in far southern Texas on South Padre Island on July 23 as a Category 1 hurricane, killing 3 and causing $1.5 billion in damage. On September 1, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane, killing 53 and causing $7 billion in damage. On September 13, Hurricane Ike hit the upper Texas coast as a strong Category 2 hurricane, killing 112 people and causing $35 billion in damage. That year also had 3 tropical storms strike the U.S. (Edouard, Fay, and Hanna), and was the last year to see six named storms hit the U.S. Nate will bring the total number of 2017 continental U.S. landfalls by named storms to five, in addition to the landfalls by Tropical Storm Cindy, Tropical Storm Emily, Hurricane Harvey, and Hurricane Irma. If we include Maria's landfall in Puerto Rico, the U.S. will have had six landfalls in 2017. According to Dr. Klotzbach, average continental U.S. landfalling statistics since 1900 are 3.5 named storms, 1.8 hurricanes and 0.7 major hurricanes. The highest number of tropical storms and hurricanes to hit the continental U.S. in one year was 9 in 1916; 2004 had 8, and there were 7 in 2005. A hurricane makes landfall in the United States during October about every two years, according to Dr. Klotzbach. Florida has been the most frequent target, with 28 October landfalls since 1878. In that same period, a total of 13 hurricanes have made landfall from Texas to Alabama during the month of October. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 07 2017 at 9:37pm |
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http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/07/us/hurricane-nate-forecast/index.html New Orleans; Of the city's 120 main drainage pumps, three major and eight smaller ones were offline Friday night, city records show. Also, all 24 major pump stations had backup generators, records show, as only three of five turbines that help power the city's oldest, most powerful pumps were available for service, a city water utility spokeswoman told CNN.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 07 2017 at 8:07am |
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BPEarthWatch update https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZDzUbf2ygg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071455.shtml NHC expects "Nate"to get cat 2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsxHScxXHns WDSU News-"Nate"-update. Paul Beckwith https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FortbQM5Rvs "Nate" may surprise the US !
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 06 2017 at 8:56pm |
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MrMBB333 "Nate" may get to cat3-major hurricane-but moving fast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsr1c_uhelU
BPEarthWatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mqhx2pIrIXg and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH9c0d4ivtY A 9 feet storm surge, on top of that strong waves, high tide (Full moon) and up to 1 foot of rain. Even as a cat-1 "Nate" can do a lot of damage. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/070329.shtml? "Nate"now (much earlier than expected) cat 1. (MrMBB333 may be correct with cat 3) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 Also some development central Atlantic-effecting logistics (air-ships). http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/032801.shtml?tswind120#contents How strong "Nate"will get when it reaches the Atlantic coast (DC/NY) ? |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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EdwinSm,
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Posted: October 06 2017 at 9:00am |
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The job market is hurting
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Satori
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Posted: October 06 2017 at 6:57am |
Nate aims at New Orleans amid worries about drainage systemhttps://apnews.com/f2342b605d8346a58b9604845b62a696/Nate-aims-at-New-Orleans-amid-worries-about-drainage-system Williams said in a recent interview that council members recently learned pumping capacity wasn’t tested ahead of the hurricane season that began June 1. this is unreal after Katrina you would think keeping this pumping system in top operating condition would be a PRIORITY corruption? incompetence? just plain stupidity? its really hard to feel sorry for people who keep making the same mistakes OVER AND OVER with Nate headed towards Louisiana maybe another MAN MADE disaster is going to occur ??? |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 06 2017 at 4:38am |
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MrMBB333 expects "Nate" to get to cat 3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pSNEslNChU,
BPEarthWatch sees "Nate"moving west towards New Orleans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlOKnQU2tA8 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 also some development on the Atlantic, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/091740.shtml?mltoa34#contents "Nate" still some strenght when it reaches the US Atlantic East Coast ! models; |
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Satori
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Posted: October 05 2017 at 4:22pm |
*BREAKING* Hurricane NATE STATE OF EMERGENCY And Evacuations Begin!STATE Of Emergency Declared in Louisiana and Florida, If not already Mississippi and Alabama will follow. |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 04 2017 at 9:42pm |
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13News Now; 17% of all named storms are in October https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMMpVtzjPSE&t=76 lots of good info; central American monsoon and very warm water makes "Nate" stronger, two times landfall in central America weakens it. The GFS (Global Forcasting System) and European models are showing different pathways. GFS=New Orleans, Euro is Florida Panhandle.
BPEarthWatch also expects "Nate" to move close to west Florida and interact with the Disturbance #1-two depressions pulling on eachother (bringing lots of rain to Florida) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDNOkyVZT_M (On the extended models another Gulf storm oct 20 moving towards the US) MrMBB333 comparing "Maria" day 1 with "Nate"day 1; Nate is bigger....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAjVBLPshdA He expects "Nate" to get to cat 3 by the weekend bringing 1 foot+ (+30cm) of rain to the US gulf coast. DJ; Earthquake-wise the US was eerie quiet last few days, things seem te be getting back to "normal level"? The Pacific storm(s) are out of the models/or getting weaker fast. |
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Satori
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Posted: October 04 2017 at 4:22pm |
Tropical Storm Nate, expected later today, to hit Gulf Coast as a hurricanehttp://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article176926726.html Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article176926726.html#storylink=cpy |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 04 2017 at 12:40pm |
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/175742.shtml?gm_track#contents Tropical Depression 16 will become Tropical Storm "Nate" within hours http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/041441.shtml
In the Pacific "Ramon" has formed http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/041435.shtml Total damage this year so far (at least) 224,120 milion US$, with Harvay 70,000, Irma 63,000, Maria 91,120 and more on its way https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 03 2017 at 9:20pm |
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At least two major storms for the US to watch; http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 Carabean and http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5 (Baja) California.
BPEarthWatch solidarity with Puerto Rico-refugees; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=losz3Ik1XA0 https://www.rt.com/usa/405571-trump-puerto-rico-hurricane-relief/ (I am not even beginning to mention the "political chaos", I have worked in childcare with 2-3 year olds that are more adult...DJ) Models: https://www.ventusky.com/?p=30.4;-84.8;3&l=wind&t=20171008/03 oct 8 cat 1 or 2 landfall between east Texas-Florida panhandle, Pacific storm seems to be gone in this model. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.CONUS-CED.WS10-MSLP also has the Baja California strong storm moving up to California gone ! (Correction https://www.ventusky.com/?p=30.4;-84.8;3&l=wind&t=20171013/12 shows hurricane south of LA west of Baja California, also Climate Reanalyzer shows it oct 13. Storms forms further west in the Pacific, I was looking at the wrong depression Southern Mexico-developing. ) http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html shows some Atlantic disturbences. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/calm-next-atlantic-storm climate change link-more warming = more hurricanes. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 01 2017 at 10:31pm |
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BPEarthWatch following several disturbences in the Caribean https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XC2R5A4ezlE One may become a hurricane oct 7-risk for Florida, Carolina's.
MrMBB333 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_58btVJyFa8 Flash flooding for Puerto Rico, more rain on its way. Several storms developing in the Gulf-oct 8-9 (but that is to far for any certainty-models also not telling the same story. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_XWW9CNWMU Mississippi Rivergoing dry above New Madrd fault (?) (Region had more than enough rain, link with Mexican earthquake ? Did "Harvey" bring to much rain-crack in the river floor ?) |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 29 2017 at 9:13pm |
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MrMBB333 Mississippi running dry near Memphis, (or is it not the main river ? DJ) should effect grain (and other) transport, water supply etc. New storm for Florida on its way oct 7, A pacific cat 4 might move inland via Mexico to bring extreme rainfall in Arizona. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjwjUkoAxEM
NHC Atlantic http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5, Pacific http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5 https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/wait-and-see-time-florida-disturbance-maria-lee-head-out older https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/maria-and-lee-way-out-new-tropical-depression-possible-near-florida The oct7 hurricane formation http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.NATLAN-CED.WS10-MSLP 10 day North Atlantic wind showing 2 storms oct 7 (Florida and Atlantic maybe touching eastern Canada) The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The season has been very active, featuring five major hurricanes, the highest number since 2010 as well as the most accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) since 2005. In addition, it is potentially the costliest season on record, with a preliminary total of over $183 billion (USD) in damages, nearly all of which were primarily contributed to by three of the major hurricanes of the season: Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. The season also saw multiple rainfall records being broken, especially from Hurricane Harvey. The season is also one of only six years to feature at least two Category 5 hurricanes: Irma and Maria. Along with 2007, Irma’s landfall on Barbuda, and Maria's landfall on Dominica, also makes 2017 the second season on record to feature two hurricanes making landfall at Category 5 intensity. In addition, Irma was the strongest hurricane ever recorded to form in the Atlantic Ocean outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.[1] This season is also the only season on record in which three hurricanes individually had an ACE of over 40: Irma, Jose, and Maria.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 29 2017 at 12:37pm |
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 two disturbences in the Carabean.
BPEarthWatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgoBMgk8OOg |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 29 2017 at 3:49am |
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https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/28/a-call-for-all-true-americans-to-stand-with-puerto-rico-in-their-hour-of-need/ The people that are responsible for climate change proberbly make money with everey disaster they-de facto-created. The mechanisms in society need rethinking. https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/28/with-indicators-pointing-toward-back-to-back-la-ninas-nasa-shows-august-2017-was-second-hottest-on-record/
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=26.2;-63.1;3&l=wind&t=20171008/12 shows 4 stormsystems in the Atlantic/Caribean, and a hurricane west of Mexico sunday oct 8. This is just a model but also a warning.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 28 2017 at 11:26pm |
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BPEartWatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV4mFlD_MQM Florida watch short term. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 NHC saterday Florida can expect showers-wind.
Satori; for the link after the link makes it a direct link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCf5bnTUQro In2ThinAir (good info but 25 minutes !) oct 1 small storm eastern florida, oct 7 bigger storm moving along the US east coast, a "disturbance"in the central Atlantic. The 7 oct storm splitting up in 3 seperate storms ? Coming weekend/monday western Europe can expect rain/wind from ex"Maria" and ex"Lee". Most "news"shows have very limited time for the weather-specialized sources dig (much to) deep and play it on the safe side. You Tube gives other people a chance-some try to inform, others try to shock. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season gives good evaluations, enables to compare the 2017 with the 2005 season. Both extreme-but is this proof of abrupt climate change ? Or what you can expect looking at statistics ? (Or maybe a bit of both-you need more info). The damage these storms bring to the already troubled-debt burdened economy of the US is very large on the long term. One hurricane effecting production for a few days every ten years a company might be willing to except-ten hurricanes in one year is simply relocation of the company. Tourism will get effected, logistics, infrastructure needs rebuilding-improvements.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Satori
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Posted: September 28 2017 at 7:14pm |
HURRICANE Update! #NATE #OPHELIA #PHILIPPE ALL Shown In Next 10 Days!?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCf5bnTUQro "another solid month of significant storms" |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 27 2017 at 9:36pm |
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@Satori, making mistakes again and again is insane !
MrMBB333 on "Maria" again cat1-moving NORTH in stead of east ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bKKYPbr3_o He earlier expected "Maria" and "Lee"to become a "superstorm" hitting the UK coming monday. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3zpRPnWdNA. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 South-East of Cuba-not far from Florida-new storm forming. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29OjgaY1SK8 Paul Beckwith the disaster after the disaster. Better preparations can limit damage of extreme weather. Power is basic for repairs, food, airco.. DJ; in south Asia the situation is far worse-but not making the headlines. Models now seem to be unable to catch up with reality. Monitoring-"now"casting more than "fore"casting. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.NATLAN-CED.WS10-MSLP (may be missing to much to work) |
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Satori
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Posted: September 27 2017 at 5:42am |
How Many More '500-Year Storms' Will People Endure Before They Start Abandoning Coastal Cities?http://www.alternet.org/environment/how-many-500-year-storms-must-batter-shores-coastal-residents-pack-and-leave the very definition of insanity and STUPIDITY One "exit barrier" has to do with a 49-year-old program called the National Flood Insurance Program. Under the current law, homeowners are required to rebuild on their land—even after suffering through multiple floods. "Through the National Flood Insurance Program, we know there are about 30,000 properties that flood repeatedly," said Rob Moore, senior policy analyst for the NRDC's water program. "On average, these properties have flooded about five times." Only around one percent of these properties carry flood insurance, reports NPR, but have been responsible for about 25 percent of the paid claims. Jennifer Bayles, a homeowner in the Houston metro area who was interviewed last week on NPR, paid $83,000 for her house in 1992. After the first flood in 2009, insurance paid her $200,000, then an additional $200,000 following the next flood. Now, post-Harvey, she expects to receive around $300,000. |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 26 2017 at 10:02pm |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PRuGvEZZyQ MrMBB333 latest; "Maria" and (cat 3 almost "Lee" ) moving over the Atlantic towards the UK-Iceland (bringing warm air to the Arctic). Puerto Rico (and many other islands) still a disasterzone-somethingh should be done NOW ! No new storms in the models.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html (this model has a storm forming oct 10 moving in to Texas) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb6GlQkEzsA !3News Now on "Maria". http://robinwestenra.blogspot.nl/2017/09/hurricane-maria-has-crushed-puerto.html food production is effected. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.NATLAN-CED.WS10-MSLP 10 day forecast wind North Atlantic. (In beginning of october 2 depressions mid-Atlantic) http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.NH-SAT1.T2_anom-MSLP old hurricanes warming up the Arctic. NOT GOOD !!!
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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jacksdad
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Posted: September 26 2017 at 9:22am |
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Trump appears to be blaming Puerto Rico for the damage caused by Hurricane Maria. And instead of empathizing, he's actually tweeting that they're not going to be off the hook for the money they owe Wall Street. The swamp must be happy with their new President.
http://secondnexus.com/politics-and-economics/trump-blames-puerto-rico-hurricane-maria/?utm_content=inf_10_1164_2&tse_id=INF_5d884810a2cc11e7897b1b4a01a12704 |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 26 2017 at 5:02am |
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13NewsNow latest update on "Maria" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cGJCg-TqWA
http://statefort.com/the-rachel-maddow-show-on-msnbc/ h.clinton did think "Irma" was funny, Trump https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/26/trump-puerto-rico-crisis-massive-debt http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html latest model does not see new storms forming. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season latest update: The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The season has been very active, the most active since 2005 in terms of ACE. In addition, it is the costliest season on record, with at least $180 billion (USD) in damages, all of which mostly were contributed by the three top storms of the season: Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. The season is also one of only six years to feature at least two Category 5 hurricanes: Irma and Maria. Along with 2007, Maria's landfall on Dominica also makes 2017 the second season on record to feature two hurricanes making landfall at Category 5 intensity. In addition, Irma was the strongest hurricane ever recorded to form in the Atlantic Ocean outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea
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EdwinSm,
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Posted: September 26 2017 at 2:31am |
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They might not destroy the US yet, but Puerto Rico looks like it might be left out to fend for itself.
This is compounded by the high level of debt (and not allowed to use US bankruptcy rules) All this gives an interesting dilemma for the current administration...either pay up or expect a lot of people fro Puerto Rico to move to the mainland. Neither option seems like it would appeal to its fan base.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 24 2017 at 9:37pm |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEy9_VRejUs BPEarthWatch the closer "Maria" gets to the North Carolina coast the warmer the Sea Surface Temperature-and the stronger the storm.
Both BPEarthWatch-models ( 3.30 in video) and long-term models indicate more storms forming http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html (oct 10 Gulf near Mexico) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9fvh6ej4nk&t=299 13NewsNow-good presentation. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.NATLAN-CED.WS10-MSLP Remnants of hurricanes move towards UK, Norway, Greenland. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/cat-2-maria-headed-north-will-come-close-nc-outer-banks After "Pilar" making landfall in West Mexico some of the rain may end up in West Texas. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsxkC5-mQus Decommissioned nuclear power plant (from 1964 still radioactive material stored inside) Puerto Rico was hit by the hurricane. |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 24 2017 at 12:31pm |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 24 2017 at 1:38am |
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"Lee" has become a cat-1 hurricane mid-Atlantic http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/240624.shtml this could influence other developments.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/marias-forecast-path-edging-closer-outer-banks "Maria" could get to cat-4. "Disturbence" Invest 98-E could turn into a tropical depression bringing much rain to the Mexico-Texas borders. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.NATLAN-CED.WS10-MSLP this model also showing a "disturbance close to East-Florida oct 1/2. and http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.NATLAN-CED.PRCP-MSLP-GPH500 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/23/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-communication-lines-dam (DJ-situation in parts of Asia are even far worse-healthrisks and refugees will increase global.) DJ;One of the things we should learn from this hurricane season is how fast hurricanes can develop. Models may be running behind the facts-faster computers need more data to give better results. An other point is that-with much damage the loss of life seems to be limited so far. Good information saves lives !
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 23 2017 at 10:15pm |
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MrMBB333 with his latest https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPAidtj3-3s "Maria" tends to move towards the US East Coast bringing at least a lot of rain-from North Carolina all the way up to New York, Pennsylvania, second half of the coming week. So still a lot could change.
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html Shows sept 27 "Maria" making a short landfall-hanging in the coastal area for 36hrs-and then moving into the north Atlantic. This model now expects a storm west of Florida oct. 9. (But that keeps changing from model to model-just an indication hurricane season is not over yet. At the hurricane-appendix I will try to look at tendencies for stronger storms in october due to climate change). https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/22/half-way-to-catastrophe-sixth-global-mass-extinction-to-be-triggered-by-or-before-2100-without-rapid-emissions-cuts/ (DJ; "the magical year 2100" please....stop non-sense talk about now !) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4sCI-1U3-0&feature=youtu.be The Real News on Puerto Rico-the disaster after the disaster, and not only for Puert Rico. DJ; When we are in the "abrupt" "exponential" part of climate change we have to expect the extremes going more extreme, extreme temperatures, rainfall, wind, storm etc. The slow movers will be water expanding due to warming up-but a storm could bring sealevel rise water going to places that normaly would stay dry during floods. Heatwaves in Greenland or Antarctica ? Proberbly coming increasing ice-melt !
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 22 2017 at 10:42pm |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfvIdOPkTL8 BPEarthWatch with an optimistic view-for the short term for the US. Both "Jose" and "Maria" would pose limited risks-although models differ.
Government insanity: Since in a lot of area's there are no kitchens left, preparation of food could be a risk. No electricity means a lot of food may become uneatable. "Lee" has a second life; http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025621.shtml?tswind120#contents. The speed in wich clouds can develop into a cat 5 hurricane-within 48 hours-the way systems interact-a depression could push a hurricane in the opposite direction than models expected-makes making models very hard. There is an increase in earthquakes-the movement of extreme large amounts of water by hurricanes may play a role; (good video/info part A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puQBf1l58ek&t=639s partB https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpRZ0n1Fz4U and part C https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92Bbl5mVztM ) latest long term model; just one hurricane forming round oct 8 in the Gulf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season gets updated daily-indirect damage is much larger. Investments will be made not in regions with high-hurricane risks or damages, people will move to safer places.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 22 2017 at 5:37am |
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EdwinSm-there is always the disaster after the disaster. Haïti got a cholera-outbreak (linked to Nepalese UN-peacekeepers) after the initial earthquake. Many islands in the Caribean find themselves in a Peurto-Rico like situation. "Independent" means in this case hoping someone will provide help.
With the hurricane-winds and waves-all kind of animals, virusses, bacteria have been transported to areaś with dead animals on the street and high humidity and temperature. Proberbly lots of people are trying to find a new-safe-home elsewere-refugees are logical after several hurricanes and no income. Severe storms could do very much damage to even well developed countries. There is a limit in what a country can deal with.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Satori
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Posted: September 22 2017 at 4:24am |
along those lines of how people will behave,there is this 'Time to eat, but not to fix my power': Drink dumped on electrician grabbing lunch after 12-hour shifthttps://www.yahoo.com/news/apos-time-eat-not-fix-000903409.html remember this is AMuriKa it's ALL ABOUT ME ME ME I would have had that #$^%$# arrested and then filed a civil suit against her |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Technophobe
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Posted: September 22 2017 at 1:58am |
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No Edwin, That is fine where it is. I wish everyone took as much care where they put stuff as you just did. Thanks.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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EdwinSm,
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Posted: September 21 2017 at 11:08pm |
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[I don't know if this fits here, but a moderator could move this to a new thread if needed]
The situation in Puerto Rico, could well give us an indication of how things might go in a general collapse following a pandemic. Currently 3.5 million people without electricity that could take months to restore. Hot weather without air conditioning. Unclear relationship to the rest of the USA (due to the island's unique status). An area heavily in debt but legally unable to seek bankruptcy protection. Lets see how this unfolds and if there are lessons we can learn to help us in out preps. |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 21 2017 at 9:28pm |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fJDmFpIo6I BPEarthWatch; discussing the several models, first week of october two storms forming near the Caribean. But models do change.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Satori
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Posted: September 21 2017 at 7:55pm |
Hurricane MARIA JET-STREAM Will Determine East Coast Fatehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETKDFWnJt38 Just like the Hurricane path models after 3-5 days its nearly impossible to tell what changes may occur. We saw this exact situation with Hurricane Irma. About 30 hours before Irma was projected to turn north and hit the east coast of Florida we had an unexpected "break" in the Jet-Stream. This caused a separate wall of pressure to stay along the length of the east coast while the other side re-formed North by Canada. This break is the reason Irma was stuck south and eventually hit Cuba then once the pressure passed it went north but to the west coast instead. This is very important to remember not only because it may change the path of Maria but because we are still days away from the forecast. Much can change in the coming days and with such little space to go the smallest of changes in the Jet-stream can be the difference in a Land-fall or Maria staying out in the Atlantic. |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: September 21 2017 at 5:49pm |
Thanks, Satori! Indeed, our global warming is turning the oceans into massive storm machines. We sow what we reap.
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CRS, DrPH
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Satori
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Posted: September 21 2017 at 5:24pm |
Hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel: Why it’s time to stop calling these hurricane disasters ‘natural’http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/09/hurricane-scientist-kerry-emanuel-why.html |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 21 2017 at 11:55am |
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So far no updates from BPEarthwatch, MrMBB333 etc.-it seems to be very hard to predict what "Jose" and "Maria" will do.
2017 Atlantic hurricane season so far did bring two cat 4 hurricanes "Jose" and "Harvey", and two cat 5 hurricanes "Irma" and "Maria"-they all were active this month. Very bizar ! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/bay-area-sues-big-oil-billions and https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/20/san-francisco-and-oakland-sue-fossil-fuel-companies-over-rising-sea-levels/ (DJ; of course politics did give big oil all the room they wanted-for decades-to destroy the enviroment. Now they claim they did not know what would come ? A bit hypocrite in my opinion.) DJ-The 2017 hurricane season is proberbly far from over. If "alarmists" are correct things only will get much worse very fast. Stronger "superstorms" may become the "new normal" very soon-in that scenario. If that "model" would become reality that would effect the way "the world can work".
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Satori
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Posted: September 21 2017 at 9:36am |
The scariest thing about 2017’s hurricanes: They keep getting really strong, really fasthttp://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/09/the-scariest-thing-about-2017s.html (The Washington Post) – “Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye,” wrote National Hurricane Center forecaster Jack Beven on Monday evening, as the storm reached Category 4 intensity. That inward contraction of a hurricane’s eye can be one telltale indicator of what hurricane gurus technically call “rapid intensification,” although a more evocative word might simply be “explosion.” Whatever you call it, it’s something we keep seeing this year. Harvey, Irma, Jose and now Maria have rapidly strengthened — and all too often, have done it just before striking land. It’s a dangerous and scary phenomenon that scientists and forecasters are still trying to understand. “It’s not a common event. Typically, that occurs in maybe 5 percent of our forecasts,” said Mark DeMaria, acting deputy director of the National Hurricane Center. But DeMaria said that this season is seeing more rapid intensification events than usual and that Maria, in particular, appears to have set a key record for hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic. “Looking back through the records, Maria went from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in just two and a half days,” he said. “I couldn’t find any other tropical cyclones in our historical record that went that quickly from a depression to a Category 5 hurricane.” That’s a big problem, because rapid intensification sets the stage for worst-case scenarios. Sadly, that’s what happened to the Caribbean island of Dominica on Monday night, hit by Maria at full Category 5 strength. |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 20 2017 at 9:48pm |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HX9xKHi3RBYBPEarthwatch-both "Jose" and "Maria" may bring a lot of rain into the US 9different models from Washington DC to Boston) Also mentions "Lee"reactivating mid-Atlantic, remnants of storms on the North Atlantic bringing severe weather to the UK. (I think it was BPEarthWatch that was drawing the conclusion that lows attrack eachother-a low near Yucatan could pull "Maria" towards the US. Eventhough not as a cat-5 but still with a lot of waves, rain etc.-very bad outlook !)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AD7g-wZXg3Q MrMBB333 extreme flashfloods in Puerto Rico-island could be out of electricity for 4 to 6 months. Both BPEarthWatch and MrMBB333 are also trying to follow earthquake news. There seems to be an increase of stronger quakes. There may be some relation with hurricanes. The amount of water that is being moved (via waves, rain, clouds) is very large-it may replace seismic pressure. For the moment http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 19 2017 at 10:34pm |
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http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/1282-184-mph-winds
and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c4_-TIC7_I BPEarthWatch-both "Jose" and "Maria" may stay in the Atlantic-limited damage to the US. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.NATLAN-LEA.WS10 In the Greenland/Iceland area a new strong storm has formed (from the remains of "Irma" DJ ? ) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 "Lee" getting restarted, moving north on the central Atlantic ? http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html shows another hurricane forming october 4-5 near Yucatan moving north into the Florida/Louisiana gulf coast. Also-this season is full of extremes and surprises-no reason to trust "models" as long as there are hurricanes on the Atlantic ! (Do not trust "Lee"-may surprise you ! escapes all long term models but just like the storm near Yucatan shows up from time to time.) https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/19/hurricane-maria-category-5-caribbean-live-updates |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 19 2017 at 8:18am |
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Updates via;
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 18 2017 at 9:39pm |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeKb0nFPTRI MrMBB333-"Maria" went from a bunch of clouds to a cat-5 in 48 hours. Military are evacuating from islands neat Puerto Rico. "Maria" may move over islands without electricity due to "Irma". (DJ; some people may find out about "Maria" when it hits them.) MrMBB333 expects "Maria" making landfall "somewere in the US" or move along the US east coast-but all models have a different story-unpredictable (DJ; and very hard to calculate).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amQPCYR0tm8 BPEarthWatch; "Jose" almost stopped moving eventhough most models predicted it to move north. A weatherfront from the US is moving east and may push both "Jose" and "Maria" in io the Atlantic-far enough to do much damage. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-hurricane-maria-hits-dominica, https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/19/hellish-intensification-marias-winds-jump-50-mph-to-cat-5-strength-in-just-12-hours/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jub-8_PwbXk Dahboo77; "Jose" and "Maria" according to a model may start interacting. In his model "Jose" is pushing "Maria" in to the Atlantic-but models change-it could work the other way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aD54qBkQCEU latest
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Satori
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Posted: September 18 2017 at 5:01pm |
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Maria to make a Category FIVE strike on Dominica tonight, St. Croix and Puerto Rico tomorrow
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/18/1699637/-Maria-to-make-a-Category-FIVE-strike-on-Dominica-tonight-St-Croix-and-Puerto-Rico-tomorrow |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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