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Climate-change were you are.

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Climate-change were you are.
    Posted: September 13 2017 at 5:05am
We had a small tornado here november 2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWkX9uu6qlU. Certainly at 1.13 very spectacular !  Same tornado from the south of Arnhem https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YBrOOs_TiA

A busdriver did not want water getting in the way after a large amount of rain https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKFeKz5tFXY so the passengers did get their feet wet. 
Rainwater is stopped at the dykes on wich the railways are made. So this kind of waterproblems is not uncommon. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SS67CWKb8vQ This is not uncommon after a large shower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot1KfCoQtXQ Parking getting flooded. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 5:15am
https://www.ruimtevoorderivier.nl/english/ To deal with to much water in the Netherlands they have made extra room for the rivers. So you can control the flooding. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island On the other hand you need water to cool the surroundings during a heatwave. In my region they have made extra room for the (Lower)Rhine but also made vissible an old stream, a brook, wich can deal with both to much water or to much heat. Also more green, trees, vertical gardens against walls-http://www.countryliving.com/gardening/garden-ideas/how-to/g1274/how-to-plant-a-vertical-garden/?

Vertical gardens on soundscreens along highways are supposed to have a cooling effect, clean the air, and reduce the noise of traffic. 

In the Netherlands political parties claim to encourage cycling. http://www.snelfietsroutesgelderland.nl/arnhemnijmegencycling In my opinion they are not doing enough yet. Other EU-countries are planning to stop alowing fossil fuel transport in several years. 

(Royal Dutch) Shell has a lot of influence in Dutch politics. (In Germany and France car-manufacterers have a lot of influence-the power of Fina, BP, Volkswagen, etc should not be underestimated.)

For many cities more bikes, less cars, saves a lot of money and pollution. https://ecf.com/what-we-do/urban-mobility/fast-cycling-routes Other cities, regions are interested in what bikes can mean for their regions https://www.velo-city2017.com/.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 5:48am
Great topic!

My question to you was how are you prepared when things get worse, which they will.  

I do not know how bad climate change will get.  The daisyworld theory seems to hold reasonably true, but does not protect any one species; we could be one of the unlucky ones.  I can't see Earth becoming like Venus, but things could change radically.  If anyone wants to know how the use of all the stored carbon could make things go.  Then look at the geological period that existed before it was stored away the first time - namely the early carboniferous.

Additionally, as the climate stabilizes at the new temperatures, there should be massive changes to wind and water currents; greening of deserts and desertification of lush areas, hurricanes becoming more frequent, stronger and covering a wider band - not just tropical areas.  

So the questions go:  "How well prepared are you for those senarios?"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 6:30am
Tech, I think that "abrupt climate change" could be a realistic scenario. When I look at the public unrest after hurricanes I am not optimistic on how safety would work out when we-in NW Europe-would have to deal with a situation in wich there is no police, government etc. for days or weeks. 

Basicly I do not know what to prepare for. There are "risk-maps" in wich north of were I live wildfires are the main risk, but here flooding is a main concern. In a radius of 30 kilometers about 1 milion people live, in a 100 mile radius over 30 million. When they start to panic fellow-humans are a major risk. 

I understand you live in an area with minor risks for wildfires, flooding or large movement of public-in-panic. 

I try to stay informed, try to keep a good condition, know my ways. During the "cold-war"this region was supposed to be on the list of the Soviet Union for a nuclear attack. The bridges in this area are the main connection between the Northsea-ports and Germany. 

I guess that in a nuclear attack I will be history at once. Proberbly would not want to survive such a horror. 

Having a lot of food/drinks in a house for wich the main risk is flooding is not the best of ideas. 

So I only can hope that "things get wose" that slowly that I can see them coming. Proberbly in other countries public order will collapse earlier than in the Netherlands. 

On the other side of this "story" there might be "things getting that worse" you do not want to survive them. Preparing for some scenario's may have use, other scenario's proberbly prolong suffering. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 9:20am
Thanks, Dutch Josh!  

I am a winter sports enthusiast in the northern US state of Illinois, and used to live & play in Minnesota (borders on Canada).  One of my favorite winter-time activities for the past 50 (!) years has been "ice fishing," whereby I trudge onto a frozen lake, drill holes and catch (or try to catch) any of a wide variety of species of fish. 

Since the 1990s, I've noticed that our northern winters are getting shorter...lakes that used to freeze solid enough to drive onto are now partially open in most winters, and this has impacted the famous ice fishing culture of Minnesota: 


Over the last several years, ice fishing contests, which are a big deal in Minnesota, have been repeatedly cancelled due to insufficient ice thickness on the relevant lake. Some of these contests have been permanently cancelled because the annual cancelations were becoming more frequent. Just now, the Maple Lake Ice Fishing Derby has been cancelled. That’s bad.

But even more disturbing is this

Ice conditions for the Eel Pout Festival have created enough concern to prompt vehicle restrictions, according to the Cass County Sheriff’s Office.

Sheriff Tom Burch says vehicle traffic on Walker Bay during the event will be prohibited, but with the following exceptions: snowmobiles and Class 1 & 2 ATVs.

All vehicles must be removed from the ice by noon on Friday. Motorized traffic is no allowed until Sunday at 10 a.m.

This is a big deal because the Eel Pout Festival is different from the previously canceled ice fishing events. All those previously cancelled events, including Maple Lake, are in Central Minnesota, not far from the Twin Cities. The Eel Pout festival is way the heck up north, in a region where even with global warming affected climate, the ice still normally forms hard and thick.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 1:39pm
I moved to this area over 30 years ago
some years ago they changed the Growing Zone we are in because the temperatures have consistently been warmer
plants that used to freeze and die during the winter no longer do so
and when hiking in the nearby National Forest ticks and mosquitoes are often quite active
IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARYConfused

I have a wood burning stove that decades ago got a fair amount of use in the winter
I haven't used it now in years
it just doesn't get cold enough to warrant firing it up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 2:04pm
Ten years ago we had eight feet of snow on our hill every year and our underground water supply pipes froze.  The snow has not settled for the past six years and our pipes have remained flowing.  But the amount of rainfall has become incredible.

Our well used to run dry for a couple of weeks each year and our yard was dry year round except for a bit of mud for a week or two while the snow melted.  Now the well has not run dry for four years and each year the yard has gotten wetter.  This year my yard is a pond and a stream.   We have had to lay concrete slabs as stepping stones to get into and out of our barn!

I would rather have floods than drought, but there are floods and FLOODS!  This is going on and on; it is quite ridiculous!  We will have to dig new and more voluminous drains to cope with climate change.  I'm too old for this level of work.Angry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 4:30pm
We used to have more fruit than we could can or freeze. The last three years it's been so warm in February that our trees have bloomed and then in March we've had a late freeze. No fruit at all this year. The little fruit that did set this year the critters got!

I have no data to support this but I've lived in the great plains most of my life and it seems there are more tornadoes and much larger and stronger tornadoes today!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 6:03pm
Stuttgart Ar. used to be called the Duck capital of the world. It was nothing to get your limit in one day! The last few years there are very few ducks. We,re now driving to northern Missouri, up in the Chillicothe area to hunt. It's not cold enough to drive them south!

Chuck,
I've spent many a day ice fishing in Minnesota. From setting on a bucket in the open to watching the Packers in a heated house. I have a friend that lives in St Cloud and that's a big part of their lives. If your truck or your house goes through the ice DNR charges you $1000 a day until you get it out! The last time i was up there 5 or ten years ago it was -28 degrees below at 2:00 PM!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 10:14pm
In the 19th century they had to make rivers in the east of the Netherlands being able to deal with ice-blockage. Parts of the river did defrost pushing ice to still frozen parts wich could do damage to dykes-cause flooding. Up to 60-70 years ago rivers could get that frozen cars could drive on it. 

We do not get ice in the rivers any longer. (So no ice-fishing either-must have been here as well in those days). 

Due to importing plants, other products, from "far away" we also get all kind of (semi)tropical plants, insects etc in this region wich can grow here due to warming. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Introduced_species


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 10:48pm
Originally posted by arirish arirish wrote:

Stuttgart Ar. used to be called the Duck capital of the world. It was nothing to get your limit in one day! The last few years there are very few ducks. We,re now driving to northern Missouri, up in the Chillicothe area to hunt. It's not cold enough to drive them south!

Chuck,
I've spent many a day ice fishing in Minnesota. From setting on a bucket in the open to watching the Packers in a heated house. I have a friend that lives in St Cloud and that's a big part of their lives. If your truck or your house goes through the ice DNR charges you $1000 a day until you get it out! The last time i was up there 5 or ten years ago it was -28 degrees below at 2:00 PM!

Thanks, nice to hear from a fellow ice fisherman!  I lived in Tulsa for a few years & enjoyed watching the eyes of the Okies get big when I told them we could drive on the lakes in our pickup trucks and go fishing!!  

These days, not so much.  We do get an occasional cold winter from the erratic polar vortex (which whips around like a crazy snake, due to Arctic heating), but I'd have to drive pretty far north to feel confident to drive on the ice again.  

And I do miss those -30ºF mornings in St. Cloud, MN!!  When you inhale, it feels as if you were shot in the chest!!   Sadly, our lifestyles will change, and events like Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will probably be the new norm (torrential rainfall, increased extreme weather events etc.).  We need to consider this for our preps.  

Be safe, man! 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2017 at 2:21am
I've noticed that the dry periods in the summer are longer and more intense, and conversely, the winters have been much wetter. We're in the process of building a barn and outside yarding area so we can keep our cows in next winter to stop them churning up the paddocks so badly. Their current cowshed isn't big enough for permanent housing for 4 or 5 months. 

Our summers have been long and very dry recently. We've had to start irrigating our paddocks to guarantee grass. I do worry about grass fires, so we've taken steps to fit huge irrigation sprinklers in the paddocks that are on the windy side of our house, so hopefully we can drench them in the event of a fire and stop it before it gets to us. 
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 2:40am
KiwiMum, does the change of weather effect the health of the cows ? Does it effect the profitability of having cows ? (More costs for housing and food-decrease in milkproduction ?)

Here in the Netherlands agriculture production is still increasing while the number of farmers is decreasing. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Agricultural_census_in_the_Netherlands
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 2:55am



Immediately, Thursday afternoon, 12 July 2018, the Rijn and IJssel Water Board has imposed a total ban on the removal of surface water. This means that no water can be extracted from brooks, rivers, ponds and ditches in the entire management area of ​​the water board. This prohibition applies to both companies and individuals, large and small quantities. The water board closely monitors compliance with the ban. Illegal emitters risk a fine of up to 2000 euros. It has been regulated by law that the fire service may always use surface water for extinguishing purposes. There is no ban on the extraction of groundwater.

In the local Netherlands news today: 
Weathermen startle: at the end of next week it can be 40 degrees
The Netherlands is still far from the heat. Meteorologists from Weerplaza were shocked this morning by one of the calculation models that predicts the weather of next week: ,, Which indicates 40 to 42 degrees for 28 and 29 July, we have never seen that, '' says Ben Lankamp of Weerplaza.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 6:00am
Sympathy, DJ! 

We also have a heatwave/drought.  Hard to believe in wet, chilly NE Scotland.  Our well is almost dry. In an attempt to eke the water out, we are collecting and using rainwater (saved) running the pump from the well for short periods every 3 hours (in the hope it fills a little bit between runs - we get a few drops each time but the water  table is way down.) not doing any washing (Oh boy, does that build up!) using washing up water to water the plants, recycling dirty animal water as plant water and using bottled water.  I smell!  I cant bathe as much as I wish!  The loo is only being flushed occasionally AND STILL THE WATER STORE IS DIMINISHING! 

There is no respite in sight.  To add insult to injury, there is low cloud over us today.; chilly, misty, but no real rain!! 

Temperatures are unbelievable!  Literally unbelievable; the weather forecasters have not seen our thermometers!  This area was supposed to have in-the-shade temperatures inaround 18* yesterday - I wish!  It was more than 10*C higher than that and we are up a big hill!  I don't want to say they were lying, but......................
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 6:03am
There is one consolation.  Most of the midges have died and failed to breed in the hot, dry weather.
Ha! Ha!Ha! Evil Smile  Even mineature vampires can't take this sun.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 8:00am
It gets toasty here in SoCal, but we just saw some extreme temps ourselves. This is a coworker's dashboard thermometer during our recent heatwave.



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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 1:33pm
There was only a 2% chance of 42C/107F in the https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts model-but even that is shocking ! The drought may effect foodproduction...

For the time being we still can take showers etc-but it is a worry ! Other places have to deal with far worse kind of weather. But it is all extreme and can become deathly on the longer term. 

No lakes for water for the toilet in Scotland Techno ? (To save drinking water ?)-I follow https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncXGLu_iVlc In2thinair and https://www.mrmbb333.com/-the UV(C) readings are quite shocking ! In my region the grass is brown/yellow, an early autumn for most trees....limited wildfires so far.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 1:58pm
Keeping the livestock and plants alive is our priority. 

No lakes near enough to be of any use, even the sea is a minimum of 15 miles away, with ice cold north-sea water and dangerous caves and currents.  Nipping there for a swim with soap, rocks and a bag of washing is not really an option.  We are even using the dehumidifyer as a water source!


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 2:38pm
40% of our water comes from the desalanisation plants,here in Perth

otherwise we would be in trouble  ,

our east coast (4/5 hours fly time ) is in a drought situation

over the last 30 years our summers have become   longer ,30c+ for a good 6/8 months 

not much rain in our winters now ,

Australia is a big country but 3/4 of it desert,only liveable around the coast




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 5:16pm
The winters in Chicago use to be long and brutal....temperatures down to -26º C (-15º F) used to be fairly typical.  I would usually go fishing through the ice and have done this for about 50 of my 63 years on this planet! 

Alas, winters seem to be growing warmer and warmer....some winters, the ice barely holds up to being walked upon, or it all melts in an atypical February rainstorm.  

During the spring and summer, the Chicago region receives much heavier rainfall, leading to damaging flooding with extensive property losses.  Being the US midwest, we have our share of tornados and hailstorms!  Certain areas not far from where we live were completely destroyed by massive tornados...my wife and I nearly drove through this one.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2018 at 10:22pm
I am also caught up in the heat wave affecting Europe...yesterday our well ran dry. The well has a hand pump that I have only used for watering the garden and flushing the toilet.    It has been the hottest and driest summer since we bought this property 12 years ago.

We knew that the previous owner (the ones that built the house) had trouble with the well running dry and went onto the town supply (which is still functioning). I did not expect to drain the well with a hand pump.

We still have a little water in a pond (natural dip in the rocks, with a extra dam that I just re-cemented to try and stop all its leaks). so the plants are good for a few days, and yesterday the well seemed to be filling at about 5 litres an hour.)

No rain in our local 10 day weather forecast. 

I cannot say if this is a long term climate change effect, as the island communities here have always had a risk of summer drought.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 17 2018 at 9:47pm
No severe weather here in the Netherlands-just warm/hot (no heatwave-but most likely we will get a national heatwave next week)and no rain expected the rest of this month. 

This is effecting watersupply/pressure-demand is (much) bigger than what can be produced in some area's. So-since they are on the end of supply-lines some northern regions of our country have to deal with a pressure drop in water.

Since we are part of the EU, and Germany, France get a lot of rain in some regions, on a European level watersupply-for the moment-should not be a major problem (yet).

Waterlevel in the rivers is low-it will effect shipping-but since we have good rails-and-roads there may be alternatives for logistics. Also cooling powerplants most likely not getting problematic soon. 

We had a major wildfire north of Arnhem in 1976-we were getting close to evacuating northern parts of town, shooting wild animals in the Zoo-then. Wildfires are a very major risk-growing day by day. 

Links-wildfire in Sweden, Algae in gulf of Finland

http://www.euromomo.eu/ No increase in mortality yet in EU
heat-island effect in the Netherlands. In urban area's temperature may be several degrees above the surrounding area's. (In my area there is more water than during the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_heat_wave. This may bring temperatures down a little. (see also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_American_heat_wave)

DJ-I think we are in a global climate crisis and may have to deal with weather becoming even more extreme. International cooperation is needed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 31 2018 at 10:41pm
July 2018 did break records for drought and hours of sunshine (average 8mm of rain over 330 hours of sunshine). Temperature-wise july 2018 ended in 3rd place (20,7C 2006=22.3 and 1994=21,4C).

The effects of lack of rain are becoming dramatic-we are beyond the 1976 record for that. Also two days in a row we had places with temperatures of 38,2 and 38.1. The (1944) record is 38.6C-most likely it will get broken soon. 

Harvest-wise this weather is a total disaster; farmers are getting close to bankruptcy-with no real hope for the coming month bringing weather improvement harvests will fail, farmers will stop their farms.
Also since there is hardly any grass cows (etc) are now in the stables eating what was meant for the coming winter-a lot of those cows will not make it to the winter and be slaughtered.

Rivers are at extreme low levels-eventhough not yet record breaking. There is more rain in parts of Germany and France giving some water to the riversystems. Still sweet water in the Netherlands is now used:
-to keep the salt (sea) water from moving in land
-to stop dykes etc. from drying out and collapsing.

Trees are dying here on a larger scale-breaking up. At several places municipalities stopped giving young trees water-they may get replaced (with imported trees) after the drought. 

(Rail)ways are effected, bridges stay closed. With also the waterways at low level logistics are effected. 

Energy production is still working, also drinking water is not yet a problem. Still due to ground drying out there seems to be more break-ups in the underground pipelines. 

Wildfires are still limited-the fire departments (etc) are very on top of situations.

Statistics do not yet show an increase in mortality-but historic data shows increase in mortality during long warm/hot periods. A sad fact is that-due to spending cuts on the care for elderly and chronicly ill-the most vulnarables may be found dead after weeks, months. 

Most people are unaware of the dramatic situation we are in. The Netherlands is the second largest exporter of agriculture products in the world-after the US. With this global heatwave food production is getting in a crisis. This will get much worse than Dutch cheese becoming expensive-famine may be around the corner for some poor regions. (The Arab spring was drought related, food prices doubling in 2010)

Dealing with this extreme weather "as an incident" not taking serious steps for a more durable society will only worsen the situation further. 

Sealevelrise is speeding up-most likely in a dramatic way. I do expect hurricanes to get to Europe-in combination with these droughts fertile land may get eroded, our watersystem may not be able to switch from extreme droughts to extreme rainfall in just a few hours.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8k9K-jhIT4 Robert Scribler on the heatwave bringing temperatures of 26C on the Alaskan-Arctic coast....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 4:13am
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

In pictures: Australia's drought seen from the air - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-45043299
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 6:25am
Carbon ... you beat me to posting that....the pictures are kind of depression  (=polite speak for very depressing).
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My problem with Climate Change is China and India. We have so many countries not just the U.S. that are doing so much more pollution causing Climate Change it makes the U.S. look good. Until the whole world gets on board we are sunk. You will never get China or India to stop polluting.   

One thing I can tell you I would not purchase any property near the ocean!!! I worry about the high plains having no water also. But it is what it is until the world comes to it's senses.


I also believe there could be a reason for all the climate change but that is another subject I do not want to go into.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 11:43am
There is more than one reason for climate change - not just us.  Although I now think we are the biggest of the causes.

Don't live near the ocean or at the bottom of a valley is absolutely the most vital rule!.

China used to be beaten by the USA in CO2 emissions, NOT ANY MORE!!  Now it produces nearly TWICE what the USA does.  Mind you it has 5 times the population so there is no room for complacency.  Per capita, the Chinese produce almost 1/3 the CO2 an American does. 

But rather than apportion blame, which is in my opinion the wrong approach, we need to protect ourselves from the effects.  I may lambast Trump for his stance on climate change, but he is hardly unique in this!  Overall the world may cut its emissions down a little, but it is not going to stop.

None of our politicians, parties, focus groups or government administrations are going to save us.  I personally don't think God will save us from this either (Revelations 11:18). 

So use your brains and listen to FluMom.  Get yourselves ready.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 2:16pm
i live about 2 kms from the ocean.............

we all screwed................

UNLESS there is  a pandemic that knocks about 75% of the   population

people hate me because i'm a realist.............

or can someone give me a better idea

because i can't for the life of me see any other way ,

even if we stopped using planes ,trains and automobiles TODAY 

it won't stop the climate change thats happening NOW


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 2:40pm

World Population Growth

Humans had been around for tens of thousands of years by the year 1 A.D. when the Earth's population was an estimated 200 million. It hit the billion mark in 1804 and doubled by 1927.

It doubled again in less than 50 years to four billion in 1975

YearPopulation
1200 million
1000275 million
1500450 million
1650500 million
1750700 million
18041 billion
18501.2 billion
19001.6 billion
19272 billion
19502.55 billion
19552.8 billion
19603 billion
19653.3 billion
19703.7 billion
19754 billion
19804.5 billion
19854.85 billion
19905.3 billion
19955.7 billion
19996 billion
20066.5 billion
20096.8 billion
20117 billion
20258 billion
20439 billion
208310 billion
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 06 2018 at 9:59pm
http://www.estofex.org/ :

A level 2 was issued for France, Belgium, the Netherlands and NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes. 
-
A broad level 1 area was issued for parts of Spain, France, Switzerland, Austria, Luxembourg, N Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Denmark mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes. 

DJ, We are getting to the end of our record breaking-1 month-regional heatwave. National we are at the end of a second heatwave for 2018. 

Today we may get close to 38.6C in some regions, still the record for the Netherlands since 1944. 

The drought did bring massive starvation to wild animals, trees. It will effect harvest. 


European mortality bulletin week 30, 2018

Link to printable version

Overall, the pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show normal expected mortality levels for the participating countries. However, there are signs of excess mortality in a number of countries in the north of Europe, especially among the elderly, which could be related to the current heat wave affecting many European countries.


DJ; The "over-mortality" more deaths than statistics would expect-will get clear within a few months. Due to spending-cuts on care a lot of people in need do not get care, may be found dead in their homes after some time. 

Also there seems to be an increase in accidents etc. that are not-statisticly-related to these extreme weather events. (It is a "slow disaster")

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2018 at 10:45pm
Hard to tell if it is climate change or just a summer heat wave, but some dire effects here (Finland):

Originally posted by YLE, Finnish Public Radio/TV YLE, Finnish Public Radio/TV wrote:

After a dry summer, many farmers in the south and west predict that they will only harvest half of their normal yield. This bodes poorly for Finland's livestock.



On one news report a farmer from another island reported that this winter she would have to send half her dairy cows to be slaughtered, as they are already using the winter feed.

Also, in our village, there is an old man who has kept one small hay field and a very nice cottage (used by relatives for summer holidays).    In other years he has just had the field cut and let the hay rot down.  This year for the first time in the twelve years I have been here the field was harvested by a farmer and the fodder collected. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2018 at 1:33am
ABC News: NSW Government says entire state in drought, new DPI figures reveal full extent of big dry.

And this is our Winter......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2018 at 2:23pm
Here too. Our well just ran dry for the first ever time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2018 at 4:12pm
Carbon 20 is correct when showing the population chart. We are doomed folks too many people too many countries coming out of the dark ages in Africa and too much pollution from India and China. Everyone gives India and China a way out of the Carbon agreement which does nothing but get money from the U.S. to make others wealthy on the U.S. workers backs. Why Trump will win again in 2020!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2018 at 10:38am
I have a feeling that the population thing will fix itself, with or without our help.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2018 at 2:19pm
its a BIG taboo the population thing,

how Dare we even think that we are the problem!!!!!!!!!!!!!!,

i'v seen it on here recently ,

War ,Fammin, or Pestilence is the only way we will be thinned out as a species ,

it will never happen by any other means,

you should have seen the fuss when plastic bags were stopped at the supermarkets over here ,

can you see people only being allowed one 1000cc car or no cars per family ,No 4x4 , one overseas flight every 5 years ,a cap on your electricity usage ,say 1 kilowatt a month ,,

Flumom you are wrong to point fingers,at anyone country ,

the UAE are one of the biggest emitters ,

and guess what they produce:


Petrol,Urea, fertilizer,pesticides,and Weedkiller...........

that we in the WEST use like there is no tomorrow,

the Human race needs to have a good long look at itsself...............



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2018 at 6:53pm
I don't disagree. Many of the liberal Actors for Climate Change agreement have huge yachts, private air planes, multiple houses, cars that eat gas. This is a messed up world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2018 at 9:59pm
Another side of climate change for the Netherlands is that "since we had Spanish weather here" a lot of Dutch had their hollidays in their own country (Spain did see 20% less Dutch tourists this year ! Tourism in the Netherlands is up 7%).

We did have (some) rain-a lot of grass turned green again-but there will be some damage to nature. (We did have overpopulation of wild swines, deer, etc. in several area's. Due to lack of food a lot of those animals died. Nature is not friendly.)

The rivers are at their lowest levels ever-almost. Salt water from the North Sea is moving in-also effecting agriculture. Speaking of agri-culture-wine is doing very well here !

The Dutch are most active in "moving" from all Europeans; going on bike to school or job, taking a walk during the break. We have good cycle-paths here, and that is still growing. On the short-term tourism will grow-add to the almost 3% economic growth this year.

If you are thinking of a job in the Netherlands-we have over 250.000 vacencies-from healthcare to truckdrivers, building etc.

Discussion on population is another subject. With better education (especialy for girls/women) birth-rates go down fast. I (DJ) may even start a discussion on gender-in-equality; the better the position of women in a society the lower the birthrate ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2018 at 10:17pm
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

New South Wales battles dozens of winter bushfires - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-45203946
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2018 at 2:55pm
Iraq's Edenic marshlands are drying out again
The famed Marshlands of Mesopotamia, hailed by many as the location of the biblical Garden of Eden, once covered some 20,000 square kilometres. They were almost completely drained by Saddam Hussein in the 1990's, and now, after more than a decade of reflooding efforts, they are drying out again.

The World
By Tracey Shelton

Updated Sat at 6:24am

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A woman walks across dry land leading water buffalo
The Central Marsh, pictured above, used to be full of water and life. Now, many locals have been forced to migrate from the cracked, bare earth that surrounds their villages. This time, climate change, poor water management, and dams further upstream are among the culprits.

Forget the Palestinian issue. That's a joke compared to what's coming. Water is life!

Azzam Alwash, Iraqi engineer and environmentalist
Media player: "Space" to play, "M" to mute, "left" and "right" to seek.
VIDEO: Mr Alwash says the water crisis could be key to the future of the Middle East (The World)
Mr Alwash has led reflooding efforts in the marshlands, and he warns that without proper management, the situation will present "the next crisis" for Iraq after the fall of the Islamic State.

The marshes were completely dried almost 30 years ago by Saddam because they were a natural haven for political resistance. It is our Sherwood Forest [Robin Hood] — it is where rebels went to hide and Saddam was afraid the opposition would be used by the West to undermine his rule. As such, he went about depriving the marshes of their source of life, building thousands of kilometres of embankments to hold the waters of the Euphrates away from the marshes."

Azzam Alwash
It took Saddam five years to drain the vast wetlands back in the nineties, but the environmental impact is predicted to last for generations.

A flock of birds fly over the marshes
The drying caused the temperature of the region to increase by 5 per cent, dust storms increased, birds migrated to other countries, and fish died off. The marshlands previously supplied around half of the fish consumed in Iraq.

By the fall of Saddam in 2003 after the launch of the Iraq war, refugees of the area began to return to break down the embankments, but by this point, dam projects up north in Turkey were reducing the amount of water reaching the area.

The biodiversity of the marshes are driven by the natural flood pulses of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers that deliver 60 per cent of their water in the spring — the dam systems stopped those pulses.

Boats sit on the banks of a mostly dry marsh area as buffalo graze in the background
While reflooding was possible, the water quality had irreversibly deteriorated meaning only the more hardy fish and animal species could survive in the new marshes.

The marshes had gone down to zero so there was no way but up. But the fact is we have been unable to restore the marshes. We reflooded a large portion, but the biodiversity had changed.

Azzam Alwash
This year, the marshes begun drying again. In some areas, locals say, the water level has been reduced by 50 per cent in just three months.

Jassim Al-Asadi sits in a boat in the marshlands
Jassim Al Asadi, pictured above, was born right in the centre of the marshes. His mother gave birth on a boat while collecting reeds for the family's herd of water buffalo. He now works for Nature Iraq monitoring water quality and conditions in the marshes. He says this year water levels and salinity have reached critical levels.

Fires burn red over a dry marsh area
Mr Asadi says fires are also taking a toll.

Buffalo breeders and reed collectors burn the dry reeds traditionally to allow space for new growth in the spring when the water levels rise. But this year there is no water to control the blaze. Many are burning out of control.

A house made of reeds and mud
Low water levels have stunted transportation which is largely carried out by boat. Reed collectors can no longer reach the good reeds which are used to build houses, feed buffalo and make fishing traps and other items. Mr Asadi says salinity levels have now reached five times the drinkable level, meaning buffalo herders need to travel up to 25 kilometres daily by boat to purchase fresh water for their families and their flocks.

It affects the health of the buffalos and the price of the buffalos. Disease is spreading among the herds because of the quality of the water. Many have died.

A fisherman checks his nets
Mr Asadi says fisherman are also suffering. The quantity and quality of water has reduced fish numbers and sizes.

The income from fishing is now too low for a family to survive on. Many have left the marshlands for other areas of Iraq higher along the Euphrates.

Water buffalo make their way throw muddy shallow water holes
Buffalo breeders are also migrating to areas that have water. Mr Asadi says some villages are now almost empty.

Every economy related to the marshes are affected by drought. All the people are affected.

Children collect reeds from a boat
If nothing is done, Mr Alwash says "agriculture is going to die in the land where it was born".

Iraq's culture has been built on an abundance of water for thousands of years. Our problem has been flooding not lack of water. Suddenly over 25 years — or one generation — our problem converted from floods to arid conditions. Culture does not change that fast and that is the problem. Our culture has not caught up with reality. And it's gonna be a shock.

A child sits holding the horns of a buffalo
The cities of Iraq can not handle the demands of a growing population. Agriculture, energy and other services are lacking. People are already demonstrating in the streets, Mr Alwash says.

Three to four million people who are currently dependant on Iraq's agriculture will have to migrate out. If you think Syrian migration was a huge problem for Europe, wait until the migration from the farms of Iraq starts.

Buffalos wade through the water as boats pass behind
But Mr Alwash believes this crisis presents an opportunity.

I want to build on top of this crisis a cooperation [between nations] to create management for the waters of the region.

A man rides his boat at sunset
Iraq loses about 8 billion cubic metres of water to evaporation as a result of flood control structures, including large shallow lakes built to control the floods. Mr Alwash believes this water can be saved by storing it in Turkey. He says strategic water and energy management between Turkey, Iraq, and in turn the wider region would not only solve the water crisis, but could lead to peaceful cooperation in a region long plagued by war.

Water is life! You can't drink sea water, you can't drink oil — you have to find a solution.

A boat rides along the Euphrates river during golden sunset
Photos by Tracey Shelton and Jassim Al-Asadi

Topics: water-management, water-supply, dams-and-reservoirs, environmental-impact, environmental-management

First posted Sat at 5:59am
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Mosquitoes known to carry West Nile virus found in Essex

Hundreds of cases of the virus have been recorded so far this year
Source and full article:   https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/mosquitoes-known-carry-west-nile-1922950
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Tropical disease outbreaks are growing threat in Europe as temperatures rise

After West Nile virus kills 22 people in heatwave, experts warn of more mosquito and tick-borne diseases due to climate change

Europe is facing a growing threat of tropical disease outbreaks, as rising temperatures linked to climate change cause illnesses brought by travellers to spread more easily, health experts warned.

This summer has seen a sharp spike in West Nile virus infections in Europe, following soaring temperatures, compared with the past four years. Until the middle of August, 400 cases of the disease, which is carried by mosquitos, were recorded in Europe, with 22 fatalities, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Countries affected include Italy, Greece, Hungary, Serbia and Romania, all of which have recorded cases of the tropical infection in the past.

The spike was due to an early start to the transmission season, caused by high temperatures followed by wet weather, conditions ideally suited to mosquito breeding, according to the World Health Organization’s regional office for Europe.

“We are all a bit taken aback about how fast these change are coming down the pipeline,” said Prof Jan Semenza, who leads on scientific assessment for the ECDC. “We are seeing more and more of these extreme weather events.”

Semenza, who studies how climate change and other global environmental changes, such as the rise in international travel, affect public health, said higher temperatures make it easier for disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitos, to transmit disease.
World Health Organization hails major progress on tackling tropical diseases
Read more

“Mosquitos and ticks are cold-blooded and are affected by higher temperatures. At higher temperatures, mosquitos replicate faster. Pathogens in the mosquito also replicate faster. Everything is speeded up and you get higher turnover, bigger populations of mosquitoes and a growing epidemic potential for viruses.”

This year, which has seen extreme weather and wildfires create havoc in Europe and beyond, has also seen increased numbers of tick-borne encephalitis in central and southern Europe. Last year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found rising temperatures, a rise in international travel and more people living near wildlife were linked to a rise in illness from mosquitos, ticks and flea bites in the US, including West Nile and dengue.

Heathrow airport. The rise in international travel and tourism brings increased risk of tropical diseases. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

Researchers predict the risk for transmission of dengue fever, Chikungunya and the Zika virus, could also rise in Europe as a result of climate change. All three, normally carried by Aedes aegypti mosquito, can also be transmitted by a different species,such as as the Tiger mosquito, increasingly found in European countries, including Italy and Spain and other Mediterranean nations.

The increasing prevalence of the Tiger mosquito allows for the possibility of local infection from unknown pathogens brought into Europe by travellers.

Semenza said he was concerned about the spike of West Nile fever and its implications for local transmission of other vector-borne diseases. “We have never seen so many cases of West Nile fever so early in the season. This is a dramatic increase.”

“What it means in public health terms is we need to become more concerned about blood safety. If someone returns from abroad to Europe and has a virus in their blood, the Aedes mosquito can bite them, take up the pathogen and then bite someone else.”

“We can test the blood supply for West Nile fever but we cannot test the blood supply for a pathogen we don’t know of. If the blood supply is contaminated with a pathogen, it can’t be used and the blood supply system could be paralysed.”

Southern France and Italy experienced an outbreak of Chikungunya in 2017. Semanza said there was concern about the rapid spread of the disease at the time, as it had happened in Rome, but the outbreak was contained.

He and his team have developed models to predict the highest risk of imported diseases like dengue and to avoid “catastrophic” events or outbreaks where they are unprepared. They found the risk is worst in August, September and October, when many people travel, and that 50% of passengers from areas where dengue is prevalent travel through Rome and Milan airports.

Dr Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, the WHO’s lead on climate change, said: “We wouldn’t say a particular outbreak is attributable to climate change. But we would say that climate change is making it easier to transmit these kinds of diseases.”

Asked if we may see diseases in Northern Europe that we have never seen before, Campbell Lendrum said: “It is perfectly possible, yes. That’s not to say we won’t be able to control it. But the conditions are becoming easier for transmission.”

Rachel Lowe, an assistant professor in infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who has studied the effect of climate change on disease transmission in mosquitos, has found unexpected effects.

“Mosquitos thrive in humid conditions and rainfall can increase breeding sites. But something we found is that drought conditions can also increase breeding, because of the ways people store water. We have this complicated, non-linear relationship.”

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    If someone returns from abroad to Europe with a virus in their blood, the Aedes mosquito can bite them and pass it on
    Jan Semenza, scientist

Source:   https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/aug/23/tropical-disease-outbreaks-are-growing-threat-in-europe-as-temperatures-rise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2018 at 5:05am
The people want passport free travel,can you imagine demanding a blood sample before you enter a country,theres a massive out break of measles in Europe,

But it's not because of all the unvaccinated migrants flooding into Europe,because if you say that it's not politically correct to do so, we have an outbreak of a disease that only occurs in Africa, suddenly appearing in Victoria, eastern states of Australia.......will find link
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2018 at 5:08am
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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