Global emissions 36.8 billion 62%over 1990 limit

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Coal emissions are falling, but gas and coal use are strongly rising around the world. EPA/SASCHA STEINBACH
Global emissions to hit 36.8 billion tonnes, beating last year's record high
Pep Canadell, CSIRO, Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia, Glen Peters, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo, Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Exeter, Robbie Andrew, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo, Rob Jackson, Stanford University, Vanessa Haverd, CSIRO
December 4, 2019 12.22pm AEDT
Global emissions for 2019 are predicted to hit 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂), setting yet another all-time record. This disturbing result means emissions have grown by 62% since international climate negotiations began in 1990 to address the problem.

The figures are contained in the Global Carbon Project, which today released its 14th Global Carbon Budget.

Digging into the numbers, however, reveals a silver lining. While overall carbon emissions continue to rise, the rate of growth is about two-thirds lower than in the previous two years.

Driving this slower growth is an extraordinary decline in coal emissions, particularly in the United States and Europe, and growth in renewable energy globally.

A less positive component of this emissions slowdown, however, is that a lower global economic growth has contributed to it. Most concerning yet is the very robust and stable upward trends in emissions from oil and natural gas.

Coal is king, but losing steam
The burning of coal continues to dominate CO₂ emissions and was responsible for 40% of all fossil fuel emissions in 2018, followed by oil (34%) and natural gas (20%). However, coal emissions reached their highest levels in 2012 and have remained slightly lower since then. Emissions have been declining at an annual average of 0.5% over the past five years to 2018.

Coal emissions hit a peak in 2012 and have been declining ever since. Global Carbon Project 2019
In 2019, we project a further decline in global coal CO₂ emissions of around 0.9%. This decline is due to large falls of 10% in both the US and the European Union, and weak growth in China (0.8%) and India (2%).

The US has announced the closure of more than 500 coal-fired power plants over the past decade, while the UK’s electricity sector has gone from 40% coal-based power in 2012 to 5% in 2018.

Whether coal emissions reached a true peak in 2012 or will creep back up will depend largely on the trajectory of coal use in China and India. Despite this uncertainty, the strong upward trend from the past has been broken and is unlikely to return.

Oil and natural gas grow unabated
CO₂ emissions from oil and natural gas in particular have grown robustly for decades and show no signs of slowing down. In fact, while emissions growth from oil has been fairly steady over the past decade at 1.4% a year, emissions from natural gas have grown almost twice as fast at 2.4% a year, and are estimated to further accelerate to 2.6% in 2019. Natural gas is the single largest contributor to this year’s increase in global CO₂ emissions.

This uptick in natural gas consumption is driven by a range of factors. New, “unconventional” methods of extracting natural gas in the US have increased production. This boom is in part replacing coal for electricity generation.

In Japan, natural gas is filling the void left by nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster. In most of the rest of the world, new natural gas capacity is primarily filling new energy demand.

Oil emissions, on the other hand, are largely being driven by the rapidly growing transport sector. This is increasing across land, sea and air, but is dominated by road transport.

Australia’s emissions have also seen significant reductions from coal sources over the past decade, while emissions from oil and natural gas have grown rapidly and are driving the country’s overall growth in fossil CO₂ emissions.

CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Australia (in million tonnes). Data Source: UNFCCC, CDIAC, BP, USGS
Emissions from deforestation
Preliminary estimates for 2019 show that global emissions from deforestation, fires and other land-use changes reached 6 billion tonnes of CO₂ – about 0.8 billion tonnes above 2018 levels. The additional emissions largely come from elevated fire and deforestation activity in the Amazon and Southeast Asia.

The accelerated loss of forests in 2019 not only leads to higher emissions, but reduces the capacity of vegetation to act as a “sink” removing CO₂ from the atmosphere. This is deeply concerning, as the world’s oceans and plants absorb about half of all CO₂ emissions from human activities. They are one of our most effective buffers against even higher CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere, and must be safeguarded.

Fires and deforestation in the Amazon and Southeast Asia drove a new record high in land-related emissions. Global Carbon Project 2019
Not all sinks can be managed by people – the open ocean sink being an example – but land-based sinks can be actively protected by preventing deforestation and degradation, and further enhanced by ecosystem restoration and reforestation.

For every year in which global emissions grow, the goals of the Paris Agreement are one step further removed from being achievable. We know many ways to decarbonise economies that are good for people and the environment. Some countries are showing it is possible. It is time for the rest of the world to join them.

Comment on this article
Pep Canadell
Chief research scientist, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; and Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO
Corinne Le Quéré
Royal Society Research Professor, University of East Anglia, University of East Anglia
Glen Peters
Research Director, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo
Pierre Friedlingstein
Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, University of Exeter
Robbie Andrew
Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo
Rob Jackson
Chair, Department of Earth System Science, and Chair of the Global Carbon Project, globalcarbonproject.org, Stanford University
Vanessa Haverd
Senior research scientist, CSIRO
Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program.

Corinne Le Quéré receives funding from the European Commission (Horizon 2020), the UK Research Councils, the Royal Society. She has previously held funding from the UK Government Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. She is member of the UK Committee on Climate Change, and Chairs France's Haut conseil pour le climat.

Glen Peters receives funding from European Commission (Horizon 2020).

Pierre Friedlingstein receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.

Robbie Andrew receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.

Rob Jackson receives current funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and the California Department of Energy.

Vanessa Haverd receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program.

CSIRO provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation AU.

University of East Anglia provides funding as a member of The Conversation UK.

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carbon20 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816	Post Options Post Reply Quote carbon20 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Global emissions 36.8 billion 62%over 1990 limit Posted: December 05 2019 at 2:33pm
	Coal emissions are falling, but gas and coal use are strongly rising around the world. EPA/SASCHA STEINBACH Global emissions to hit 36.8 billion tonnes, beating last year's record high Pep Canadell, CSIRO, Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia, Glen Peters, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo, Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Exeter, Robbie Andrew, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo, Rob Jackson, Stanford University, Vanessa Haverd, CSIRO December 4, 2019 12.22pm AEDT Global emissions for 2019 are predicted to hit 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂), setting yet another all-time record. This disturbing result means emissions have grown by 62% since international climate negotiations began in 1990 to address the problem. The figures are contained in the Global Carbon Project, which today released its 14th Global Carbon Budget. Digging into the numbers, however, reveals a silver lining. While overall carbon emissions continue to rise, the rate of growth is about two-thirds lower than in the previous two years. Driving this slower growth is an extraordinary decline in coal emissions, particularly in the United States and Europe, and growth in renewable energy globally. A less positive component of this emissions slowdown, however, is that a lower global economic growth has contributed to it. Most concerning yet is the very robust and stable upward trends in emissions from oil and natural gas. Coal is king, but losing steam The burning of coal continues to dominate CO₂ emissions and was responsible for 40% of all fossil fuel emissions in 2018, followed by oil (34%) and natural gas (20%). However, coal emissions reached their highest levels in 2012 and have remained slightly lower since then. Emissions have been declining at an annual average of 0.5% over the past five years to 2018. Coal emissions hit a peak in 2012 and have been declining ever since. Global Carbon Project 2019 In 2019, we project a further decline in global coal CO₂ emissions of around 0.9%. This decline is due to large falls of 10% in both the US and the European Union, and weak growth in China (0.8%) and India (2%). The US has announced the closure of more than 500 coal-fired power plants over the past decade, while the UK’s electricity sector has gone from 40% coal-based power in 2012 to 5% in 2018. Whether coal emissions reached a true peak in 2012 or will creep back up will depend largely on the trajectory of coal use in China and India. Despite this uncertainty, the strong upward trend from the past has been broken and is unlikely to return. Oil and natural gas grow unabated CO₂ emissions from oil and natural gas in particular have grown robustly for decades and show no signs of slowing down. In fact, while emissions growth from oil has been fairly steady over the past decade at 1.4% a year, emissions from natural gas have grown almost twice as fast at 2.4% a year, and are estimated to further accelerate to 2.6% in 2019. Natural gas is the single largest contributor to this year’s increase in global CO₂ emissions. This uptick in natural gas consumption is driven by a range of factors. New, “unconventional” methods of extracting natural gas in the US have increased production. This boom is in part replacing coal for electricity generation. In Japan, natural gas is filling the void left by nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster. In most of the rest of the world, new natural gas capacity is primarily filling new energy demand. Oil emissions, on the other hand, are largely being driven by the rapidly growing transport sector. This is increasing across land, sea and air, but is dominated by road transport. Australia’s emissions have also seen significant reductions from coal sources over the past decade, while emissions from oil and natural gas have grown rapidly and are driving the country’s overall growth in fossil CO₂ emissions. CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Australia (in million tonnes). Data Source: UNFCCC, CDIAC, BP, USGS Emissions from deforestation Preliminary estimates for 2019 show that global emissions from deforestation, fires and other land-use changes reached 6 billion tonnes of CO₂ – about 0.8 billion tonnes above 2018 levels. The additional emissions largely come from elevated fire and deforestation activity in the Amazon and Southeast Asia. The accelerated loss of forests in 2019 not only leads to higher emissions, but reduces the capacity of vegetation to act as a “sink” removing CO₂ from the atmosphere. This is deeply concerning, as the world’s oceans and plants absorb about half of all CO₂ emissions from human activities. They are one of our most effective buffers against even higher CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere, and must be safeguarded. Fires and deforestation in the Amazon and Southeast Asia drove a new record high in land-related emissions. Global Carbon Project 2019 Not all sinks can be managed by people – the open ocean sink being an example – but land-based sinks can be actively protected by preventing deforestation and degradation, and further enhanced by ecosystem restoration and reforestation. For every year in which global emissions grow, the goals of the Paris Agreement are one step further removed from being achievable. We know many ways to decarbonise economies that are good for people and the environment. Some countries are showing it is possible. It is time for the rest of the world to join them. Comment on this article Pep Canadell Chief research scientist, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; and Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Corinne Le Quéré Royal Society Research Professor, University of East Anglia, University of East Anglia Glen Peters Research Director, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo Pierre Friedlingstein Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, University of Exeter Robbie Andrew Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo Rob Jackson Chair, Department of Earth System Science, and Chair of the Global Carbon Project, globalcarbonproject.org, Stanford University Vanessa Haverd Senior research scientist, CSIRO Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program. Corinne Le Quéré receives funding from the European Commission (Horizon 2020), the UK Research Councils, the Royal Society. She has previously held funding from the UK Government Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. She is member of the UK Committee on Climate Change, and Chairs France's Haut conseil pour le climat. Glen Peters receives funding from European Commission (Horizon 2020). Pierre Friedlingstein receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. Robbie Andrew receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. Rob Jackson receives current funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and the California Department of Energy. Vanessa Haverd receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program. CSIRO provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation AU. University of East Anglia provides funding as a member of The Conversation UK. You might also like Swapo's unassailable position shattered: what next for Namibia? Ethiopia is making maps to help improve soil health Love it or hate it, Tesla's Cybertruck is revolutionary Punjabi ideas of honour can lead to girl-shaming and prenatal sex selection Who we are Partners and funders Contact us Copyright © 2010–2019
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jacksdad Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251	Post Options Post Reply Quote jacksdad Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: December 07 2019 at 11:42am
	I was talking to a new hire at my work who is maybe 20 years old. Someone in the break room was talking about grandchildren, and when they left, he shocked me by saying his generation probably won't have them because the world will be "too f-ed up" by then. It had never occurred to me that the aspirations and dreams we had growing up are no longer shared by his generation. Worse still, he's probably right. I honestly think at this point, the only sensible strategy is to teach your kids the self sufficiency and survival skills they'll need when the stuff really starts to hit the fan. The whole "do well at school/college, get a good job, and raise a family as you work your way toward retirement" life strategy we grew up with will have little to no relevance in the mess they're going to inherit from us.
	"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.

Technophobe Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450	Post Options Post Reply Quote Technophobe Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: December 07 2019 at 11:48am
	Probably. I believe that, as a parent, its my job to teach my kids to deal with most problems. Boys need to be able to sew and cook, girls need to be able to change a plug and unblock a toilet. Both need to be able to survive in dangerous situations. My daughter is not much academically, but she does some first aid, can start a fire with nothing but a knife and feed herself on forage/hunting. I'm not happy with that alone. I want the good job too. Failing that, I am hoping to leave her with enough property to be self sufficient. I don't think she can change a plug yet. D**n!
	How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving.