Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
WHO considers declaring global health emergency |
Post Reply |
Author | ||
Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Posted: January 22 2020 at 8:58am |
|
China coronavirus death toll rises to 17; WHO considers declaring global health emergency. Never good when they mention it has achieved sustained human to human transmission. https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-01-22/wuhan-china-deadly-coronavirus |
||
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
|
||
AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
You know it's rather a coincidence that Wuhan is the location of China's first and only level 4 bio lab and just happens to have a virulent virus outbreak.
It was in January 2018 that China inaugurated the Wuhan bio-safety level four (BSL-4) laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) or the Wuhan P4 lab in the Jiangxia district of the city. The lab was built precisely to look into dangerous pathogens like the novel Coronavirus, conduct research on them and find a cure for them - part of a long-term planning in the aftermath of the SARS outbreak in China in 2002-03 that claimed over 700 lives. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/a-high-security-lab-in-ground-zero-wuhan-could-hold-key-to-cure-coronavirus/story-bHKGXxL03ZAxNrGmownyzM.html |
||
Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
AI, interesting stuff. Thanks for the post.
|
||
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
|
||
pcusick
Adviser Group Joined: April 03 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 305 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Thank you for the update. There was a good graphic of case counts by region, but is from Sina News, so not translated.
Any English language versions available? https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121 |
||
Accept responsibility for your choices and actions. Failure to choose is in itself a choice for non-action.
|
||
Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
AI, I am so impressed with your information. Thank You!
|
||
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
||
AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Thanks I'm just keeping an eye on this thing as it unfolds.
|
||
jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
“The Wuhan coronavirus fatality rate is lower than for SARS and MERS, but still comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, explains Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London.”
Just in case you needed reassuring... |
||
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
||
AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
The current fatality rate is based on receiving the best care and peak efficiency of the medical system. I would expect that rate to change should the medical system become overwhelmed by the potential increase in the number of infected resulting in less than optimum care. |
||
jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
I have a friend who works as an RN in a local care facility, and everyone is being required to wear masks as of this morning. She texted me to see if I knew why because they’re not giving a reason.
|
||
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
||
jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Absolutely. Ventilators and ICU beds will run out very quickly if the cases of severe respiratory distress/pneumonia do increase exponentially. And ERs will not be somewhere you’ll want to spend any time if people start showing up with any flu-like symptom. I expect it won’t be long before triage tents outside of main hospital buildings become the norm. |
||
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
AI, can you tell me if there are many cases in Guangzhou Canton in Guangdong Province? I have a good reason to ask. I saw on a map that there were 20 or so cases there could it be much worse than that?
|
||
AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Only thing I could find was from yesterday. And it states "new" cases not total cases, which is very interesting and perhaps some wordsmithing on their part. The province has confirmed a total of 14 new coronavirus-related pneumonia cases as of 3pm on January 21st. http://www.newsgd.com/news/exclusive/content/2020-01/21/content_190111846.htm |
||
CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
An epidemiologist friend of mine (FBI) constructed this Epidemic Curve for the Wuhan outbreak:
"Simple calculations regarding the potential period for the spread of Coronavirus. The virus is spreading at a polynomial rate (R2 = 0.974), but the data I have is limited. However, the the trendline is slightly lower than the real numbers" |
||
CRS, DrPH
|
||
Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
A part of me agrees with China in the beginning with no cover-up, and I'm very cynical by nature, but this thing is a mutating-machine like nothing I've seen here over 15 years. It appears to want a human host at all costs with possible virulence increasing. It's like a firefly, or a horse running into a burning barn. It wants to achieve perfect-killing before it can burn itself out. Hence; the Wuhan quarantine. I'm probably wrong, but China would not quarantine 11 million people unless they are seeing major genetic changes. Not sure what they are doing in Wuhan will make a difference, but surprised they are not fleeing for their lives.
|
||
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
|
||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
AI, thanks for the info. We have a family coming back to our work first week of February and I am a little concerned!
|
||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
CRS DrPH, break that down for us stupid people. What does that chart mean?
|
||
hoosiermom22
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 21 2020 Location: Indiana Status: Offline Points: 1225 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Jacks dad....What type of a facility does your friend work? In the US?
|
||
jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
It’s a skilled nursing facility in Southern California.
|
||
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
||
Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Flumon, lol. You crack me up lol. I agree. Chuck, what's up?
|
||
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
|
||
cobber
Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Albert, I've been here for 10 years. I agree, this is the most heightened outbreak yet, however we have see the exact thing play out before. China under reports then over reports, which throws out the figures. I haven't done a chart yet as the numbers are inconsistent.
I've said it in other posts. Look to first world nations and their reporting of numbers and deaths. This will give us an accurate look at what's going on. I also think too, China learnt from SARS. They really have their act together. They have quarantined an entire city of 11 million.. That's seriously hard core. No panic just yet, lets keep watching. |
||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
"When they tell you not to panic that is when you run." Quote from movie 2012...LOL.
|
||
Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
I agree with FluMom.
Yes, they have quarantined Wuhan. But it is already too late. The horse has already bolted......... - and started a stampeed. Run, run............ Stampeeeeeed... |
||
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
||
jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Makes you wonder what they’re trying to keep behind those road blocks. Far more cases than they’re willing to admit to, or a mutated virus?
|
||
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
||
Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Hi Cobber, and yes you have been here forever, and although glad to see you back, it's just under bad circumstances, and I get it. That's what this place is about. We just need to get this pandemic out of the way. Always good to see you tho my friend, and all of the old timers lol. |
||
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
|
||
arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
The fact that China has quarantined 11.9 million people, shut down all transportation in or out of the city, set up police road blocks on roads to limit in coming and out going traffic scares the H out of me! It tells me that there is something very, very wrong there! I don't believe they have changed at all and the extent of this quarantine should say plenty! I'm with Cobber, right now there are suspected cases in the U.S., Canada, Mexico and Russia. We should know for sure in the next week to ten days!
|
||
Buy more ammo!
|
||
arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
I haven't been around for a while but that sounds very familiar!
|
||
Buy more ammo!
|
||
RedTea
V.I.P. Member Joined: May 31 2006 Location: Missouri Status: Offline Points: 331 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Thank you all so much for keeping the info flowing all these years, y'all have never failed me in the many years I've been here. Living in a University town with a large amount of international students scares the hell out of me, especially since classes just started again this week and many people went home over the winter break. Here's hoping for the best.
|
||
A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort!
|
||
Kilt5
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 29 2017 Status: Offline Points: 5740 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Snakes – the Chinese krait and the Chinese cobra – may be the original source of the newly discovered coronavirus that has triggered an outbreak of a deadly infectious respiratory illness in China this winter.
|
||
cobber
Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Yes its sad we convene when a virus threatens...
Its terrible to say, I'm really only interested in the "big pandemic". I am concerned about this one. Like all corona it can twist and turn. Having said this I'm not seeing anything too alarming at this stage. I remember SARS at the time. It sacred the crap out of me. It was very similarly reported. I remember the numbers exploded everyone panicked. I think we were all a little scared. But in the whole scheme of things it turned out to be a powder puff. This all feels very familiar. So from an experienced head having lived through several viral threats. Keep calm guys we are early days. Keep an eye out for sustained spread in first world nations and associated deaths. This is the best marker to understand the threat we face. |
||
carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Yes Kilt5 ,I saw same report,
Snakes eat Bats, Humans eat Snakes.... |
||
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
||
oakviolet
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 22 2020 Status: Offline Points: 1130 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
I'm watching to see if there are cases outside of China that were clearly contracted due to plane travel/close proximity. That's when I'll become more concerned about this virus.
That said, China's willingness to seal off three cities (it's up to three now) could be seen as either a good sign (taking responsibility during the Lunar New Year high travel season) or bad sign (bug is worse than they're reporting). That Wuhan is the epicenter of China's bio testing is an interesting twist. |
||
hoosiermom22
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 21 2020 Location: Indiana Status: Offline Points: 1225 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Not to sound paranoid, but a little surprised more deaths have not been reported in the past 24 hours. I expected a trickle of numbers. Went to bed Tuesday night with 9 reported and awoke to 17 yesterday morning. More reported as affected or ill, maybe there’s hope for a low mortality at this point. Anyone find this strange or hopeful? (Understood there’s a given mutation risk).
|
||
Post Reply | |
Tweet
|
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You can vote in polls in this forum |