| PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL |
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| Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
march 2024 |
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Dutch Josh 
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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 Topic: march 2024Posted: March 06 2024 at 10:01pm |
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and There’s been 3024 Covid deaths in the U.K. in the first 8 weeks of 2024. That’s the equivalent of approx 20,000 Covid deaths for the year if the trend continues in 2024. Many thousands more will develop long Covid. Chronic illness is at record levels. The pandemic isn’t over. DJ [url]https://twitter.com/Saffiya_Khan1/status/1765400064715894796[/url] or https://twitter.com/Saffiya_Khan1/status/1765400064715894796 In the UK 1 in 15 workers now unable to do his/her job because of Long CoViD. I do not know the UK flu deaths per year...google does; [url]https://www.gov.uk/government/news/excess-deaths-associated-with-flu-highest-in-5-years[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/government/news/excess-deaths-associated-with-flu-highest-in-5-years ; New interim analysis from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) indicates that excess deaths in England associated with flu infection were higher (14,500) than the average figure (13,500) for the 5 years before the pandemic. This is the highest figure since the 2017 to 2018 season, when there were 22,500 excess deaths associated with flu. So...based on this "projection" CoViD in the UK may still kill more people than the flu does.... -It does not include "indirect deaths" after infection (both for flu and CoViD...indirect CoViD deaths very likely much higher than indirect flu-deaths. CoViD does damage all over the body...most of it in blood vessels resulting also in organ damage). -Long/Chronic CoViD is "very much worse" than "post-viral syndrome" after a flu-infection.... Here in NL [url]https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-covid-19/current/weekly-update[/url] or https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-covid-19/current/weekly-update (march 6 will show up in English today) and [url]https://www.corona-lokaal.nl/locatie/Nederland/waterzuivering/Nederland[/url] or https://www.corona-lokaal.nl/locatie/Nederland/waterzuivering/Nederland ...it looks like CoViD may almost be over....22 hospital cases per day for Covid in NL is "limited"... [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ excess deaths are still above previous years for 0-14 y/o age group...low excess deaths in Germany and "israel" week 7. In NL flu is under the epidemic treshold...spring is on its way... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/parana-a-state-in-brazil-currently-inundated-with-rising-covid-19-infections-jn-2-5-and-jn-1-7-variants-possibly-at-play[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/parana-a-state-in-brazil-currently-inundated-with-rising-covid-19-infections-jn-2-5-and-jn-1-7-variants-possibly-at-play and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/thailand-medical-authorities-on-alert-as-researcher-claims-that-new-ba-2-87-1-sub-lineages-found-in-wastewater-samples-in-south-east-asia[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/thailand-medical-authorities-on-alert-as-researcher-claims-that-new-ba-2-87-1-sub-lineages-found-in-wastewater-samples-in-south-east-asia as reminders CoViD is still a very major global problem....Monitoring waste water for virus residue could give indications on CoViD spread. A very main problem is also in decrease of immunity after CoViD that can open the door to all kinds of other diseases....Excess deaths statistics may certainly NOT be the only indicator ! Wars do increase all kinds of pandemic risks. The Gaza-genocide -with NATO proxy "israel" trying to kill over 2 million Palestinians- is a global health disaster. Cholera, malaria already may be a problem...measles a growing risk..... Global "leaders" keep ignoring both climate and pandemic risks... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: March 09 2024 at 12:21am |
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[url]https://www.who.int/news/item/01-03-2024-one-in-eight-people-are-now-living-with-obesity[/url] or https://www.who.int/news/item/01-03-2024-one-in-eight-people-are-now-living-with-obesity ; New study released by the Lancet shows that, in 2022, more than 1 billion people in the world are now living with obesity. Worldwide, obesity among adults has more than doubled since 1990, and has quadrupled among children and adolescents (5 to 19 years of age). The data also show that 43% of adults were overweight in 2022. The study also shows that even though the rates of undernutrition have dropped, it is still a public health challenge in many places, particularly in South-East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Countries with the highest combined rates of underweight and obesity in 2022 were island nations in the Pacific and the Caribbean and those in the Middle East and North Africa. Malnutrition, in all its forms, includes undernutrition (wasting, stunting, underweight), inadequate vitamins or minerals, overweight and obesity. Undernutrition is responsible for half of the deaths of children under 5 and obesity can cause noncommunicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and some cancers. see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity ; Obesity is a medical condition, sometimes considered a disease,[8][9][10] in which excess body fat has accumulated to such an extent that it can potentially have negative effects on health. People are classified as obese when their body mass index (BMI)—a person's weight divided by the square of the person's height—is over 30 kg/m2; the range 25–30 kg/m2 is defined as overweight.[1] Some East Asian countries use lower values to calculate obesity DJ, CoViD both acute and lon/chronic CoViD mixed with obesity worsens the outcome. We have to change the "way we live" means we have to switch to another sort of "economy". Not based on blind consumerism (outcome of blind capitalism) but on a "balance with live".... The west is trying to keep its exploitation going via war...to keep blind capitalism going...The basic idea of "economic growth" may be a form of insanity if it is destroying the planet... We have to "rethink" human activities...face ourselves... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: March 10 2024 at 10:02am |
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[url]https://twitter.com/caitoz/status/1766639963893084633[/url] or https://twitter.com/caitoz/status/1766639963893084633 ; US airman Aaron Bushnell said the words “This is what our ruling class has decided will be normal” before self-immolating in protest of the genocide in Gaza. That simple line has been reverberating throughout our collective consciousness ever since. It seems like every day now we’re learning some horrible new fact about the US-centralized power alliance and the empire managers who carry out its malignant will for our world, because that’s just what our rulers have decided will be the norm for our species going forward. Reports that Israel tortured UN workers to extract false testimony against Gaza’s primary humanitarian aid agency. Images surfacing of airstrikes on Gaza occurring at the same time and location as airdrops of aid. Gazan children beginning to drop dead from hunger in a deliberately-engineered famine that is causing sweeping starvation at breakneck speed. The IDF kettling the population of Gaza further and further south with a horrifically destructive onslaught and then setting up an attack on the enclave’s densely-packed southernmost point. Israeli “demonstrators” bringing cotton candy machines and bouncy castles to create a fun, family-friendly atmosphere for their blockades to stop aid trucks from getting into Gaza. The US president waxing poetically about how “heartbreaking” all the death and destruction in Gaza is when he himself is directly responsible for that death and destruction. People in the world’s most powerful nation being told they have to choose between two candidates who both support this genocide. A journalist locked away in a maximum-security prison for factual reporting on the same empire which claims to support free speech and a free press. The biosphere we depend on for survival being fed into a soulless profit-generating death machine because everything on our planet has been turned into a commodity. The leaders of nuclear-armed states brandishing armageddon weapons at each other because a few manipulators in Washington DC and Virginia have decided that the US must maintain global hegemony at all cost. A mind-controlled dystopia in which ordinary people are propagandized into accepting all this as perfectly fine. This is what our ruling class has decided will be normal. This madness will continue until we come together and resolutely decide the opposite. DJ...media/politics still pushing "post-pandemic" insanity...with long/chronic CoViD a growing problem and new CoViD-variants, lots of other diseases increasing,,,so we stop monitoring/testing... The "cheapest solution" to any problem is denial... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: March 14 2024 at 3:55am |
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[url]https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1767777970028961844[/url] or https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1767777970028961844 ; PMC COVID-19 Forecast, March 11, 2024  1 of 3  3.5 cumulative infections per person on average in the U.S. so far  7.3 cumulative infections per person on average in the U.S. in four years, IF transmission continues according to the status quo of the linear trend  Many caveats noted below Four Years Into the Pandemic: Looking Back, Looking Forward At the 4-year anniversary of the WHO Pandemic Declaration, the U.S. has seen an average of 3.5 cumulative infections per person (bold blue line), with a credible interval of 2.5 to 4.0 cumulative infections per person on average (other bold lines). A linear projection suggests that IF infections continue at the current rate, in 4 years the U.S. will reach an average of 7.3 cumulative infections per person, with a credible interval of 5.1 to 8.4 cumulative infections (dotted lines). Individual Variation Averages do not characterize individual variation in number of infections, which is likely substantial. These are averages, meaning that nearly half of people have had less than 3, and a little over half have likely had more than 3 infections. For each person that has had 2 infections, about as many people have had 5 infections (these are broad strokes). Moreover, individuals using multilayered mitigation are often on a much more gradual slope than individuals who are less cautious. Many people likely underestimate their number of infections due to a reduced emphasis on testing, false negatives, and asymptomatic cases. In publications on reinfections, serious long-term outcomes often start to escalate around the 3rd infection. Mitigation Works Note that from 2020-21, transmission was much slower (bold lines) than the overall trend (dotted lines). It took a long time to reach an average of 1 cumulative infection per person. Then, mitigation dwindled, with reduced emphasis on masking, testing, and isolation. Since the original omicron BA.1. surge, cumulative infections have increased at a relatively steady clip as public health has downplayed mitigation. Linearity Does Not Mean Fatalism - The Slope Matters It would be a mistake to take this graph for a fatalistic interpretation that we can do nothing on COVID. It shows that transmission was low when mitigation was in place (gradual slope). Now, transmission is much higher (steeper slope). The vertical access is cumulative infections, which can only increase, not decrease. Indeed, time accounts very well (R^2=.97) for the cumulative number of infections since the cumulative total only increases. That means that 97% of the variability in cumulative infections in our world as it exists can be explained by time passing. However, that statistic could just as easily be the case under a low-transmission graph (gradual slope) as in this high transmission graph. Unconditional Long-term Forecasts are Uncertain, But a Conditional Forecast Can Provide a Useful Starting Point The PMC has long cautioned never to take projections beyond two months as having a high degree of certainty. New subvariants make forecasting challenging beyond that time frame. Over the long-term, the potential for new vaccines and treatments creates substantial uncertainty. However, a “conditional forecast,” can be used to model what the world would be like, if one assumes X, Y, and Z to be true. This is much less useful as a forecasting tool. It’s a bit like a sports pundit saying, “The Warriors will win if Steph Curry scores 50 points.” What people want is the unconditional prediction, the forecast for the game outcome without qualifying it based on obvious stats. We cannot make unconditional and accurate long-term forecasts. The conditional forecast merely tells you what we would expect IF transmission proceeded according to the status quo. How the Next 4 Years Could Be Different The next 4 years could be much different from this linear projection. -On the one hand, the CDC recently reduced the isolation period to 1 day, when most people remain highly infectious. -Many people are not keeping up with vaccines. This could lead to a steeper slope and worse situation 4 years from now. -However, improvements in vaccines could cause a more gradual slope or even a non-linear increase in cases such that cumulative infections increase at a slower and slower rate. -As the long-term outcomes of repeat infections become more known, there could also be a reimplementation of other types of mitigation. Where are the Waves? Some might wonder how to reconcile this graph with those of daily transmission showing 8 pandemic waves. How is it so linear? Consider a large bowl of ice cream with 7 scoops. If the 8th scoop is big or small, it’s not affecting the cumulative total as much. One might not even discern the relative change. Same for cumulative reinfections. Since BA.1, infections have accumulated at a steady relatively linear fit. You can see waves and surges at the areas where the bold lines are higher than the dotted lines and times of lower transmission the reverse. The nature of a cumulative total, however, is that it obscures a lot of the month-to-month variation. Enduring Immunity Against Infection? Finally, this graph suggests that there is not credibly evidence of enduring immunity against COVID infections. If transmission were slowing, we would see a non-linear trend where the cumulative total increases more slowly and slowly. That does not seem to be the case. It could be that marginal gains in enduring immunity are being obscured by the reduction in public health mitigation, but such a hypothesis is not obviously supported in these data. DJ [url]https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1767777970028961844/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1767777970028961844/photo/1 (part 1 of 3) |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: March 14 2024 at 3:59am |
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(part 2) [url]https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1767779394615906609[/url] or https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1767779394615906609 PMC COVID-19 Forecast, March 11, 2024  2 of 3  1.5% (1 in 65) are actively infectious in the U.S.  >730,000 infections/day  >37,000 resulting daily Long COVID cases The anticipated low point for 2024 is in about a month, though a small May wave, rates bouncing around through May/June, or a slightly rosier summer are possibilities. see also [url]https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1767779394615906609/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1767779394615906609/photo/1 DJ, my non expert reaction in part 3 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: March 14 2024 at 4:13am |
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part 3, good info from [url]https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger[/url] or https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger trying to give a -best as possible- view on the CoViD pandemic. DJ, -CoViD may have been detected and could be spreading in over 100 non-human mammals...most of it (99,9%) missed... -Media/politics keep suggesting "CoViD" is over...excess deaths, increase of (long term/chronic) disease point to a growing problem... -CoViD may decrease immunity in many ways...so lots of other infectious diseases will get much more room to spread -CoViD itself does a lot of damage all over the body...brain, hearth damage may increase over time... -The corona-virus is hiding in the hosts, the more infections the greater the chance we see much more variants spreading at the same moment... -Is there still a SARS-2 or are we moving towards lots of SARS-types ? The biggest pandemic risk before CoViD-19 showed up was believed to be in flu-types...Those risks may only have gotten worse....H5N1 is spreading around the globe-very likely by now also from (sea)mammal to (sea)mammal (in South America). H3 types of flu may be a growing risk. On top of that "background factors" like climate collapse, wars-both resulting in a growing number of refugees, famines etc. is making matters much worse. Lots of countries increase further spending on wars...Public services -tax funded- are under pressure...Countries rather spent millions on ONE tank then using it to create better ventilation in lots of schools... Information in any crisis is THE major tool...we now see lots of dis-information...denial... So the perspectives in part 1 and 2 may be "very optimistic"...from measles to M-pox, malaria, cholera the global health situation is getting WORSE !!! not better ! Global health is not even in most "politicians" top 10 of priorities... We are learning in a very hard way...we can NOT survive it this way ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: March 20 2024 at 12:52am |
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Some pandemic news-items; - - - - Do I have to put further links to H5N1, Mpox, measles ? [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Gzj8hIVpA4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Gzj8hIVpA4 -weather watcher; 2024 Europe Spring Weather Forecast! • WWSDJ, Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature early march would be a normal for july !!!! [url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/tragedy-set-to-unfold-in-tropics-update.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/tragedy-set-to-unfold-in-tropics-update.html ; The image below shows temperature anomalies over the past few years through February 2024.  Note that the anomalies in the above images are calculated from different bases. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, anomalies will be higher. The danger is that tragedy will unfold over the next few months, as temperatures look set to exceed the 2016 peak in the tropics and cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics. So what do western leaders/politics/prestitutes do; promote more war to save the US$ and western neo-colonialism, exploitation and slavery ! DJ...we lower the level of risk...living/dying from CoViD is okay...Long CoViD "all in the head" (sarcasm) [url]https://rthm.com/articles/viral-reactivation-and-long-covid/[/url] or https://rthm.com/articles/viral-reactivation-and-long-covid/ ... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: March 28 2024 at 2:55am |
 BREAKING: China's  crematoriums overwhelmed in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia provinces. As per reports ‘The ongoing COVID epidemic in mainland China has received little official acknowledgment and discussions on related topics have been blocked on social media platforms’.- DJ linked to JN.1.16 ? - DJ, here in NL (sewage)virus levels are very low for weeks...travel season may start with easter...There is hardly any CoViD-testing left...Long-CoViD statistics are difficult if you even fail to define it.... So "active denial" and anyone asking questions is either crazy or criminal.... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: March 30 2024 at 11:14pm |
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The last day of March.... -Weatherwise here in NL we had "normal" for April, record warm for March.... -This month cow-to-cow H5N1 spread in the US was detected...We already had sea-lion to sea-lion spread in South America...very likely other mammal-to-mammal spread of H5N1 in lots of places...But we may miss 95%/99% of the spread because we do not test -CoViD cases rising again a.o. in Finland... -Long CoViD seems to become the major problem... -In the UK "politics" did NOT want to invest in CoViD cases in people a.o. with autism, old age, other (limited) health issues...During the height of the pandemic UK politics went for "do not resuscitate" in those groups...Besides failing to stop CoViD-19 in time "to save the economy" yet another example of "political criminality".... -The same "political scum" promoting more war, sending more weapons, to both NATO proxies "UKraine" and "USrael"... -Both "wars" have become mass murders..."USrael" killing hundreds of Palestinians per day, in "UKraine" untrained soldiers survive only a few days in trenches before being blown up and replaced with "fresh meat".... This world need "leaders" that solve problems, limit damage...not worsen any crises to maximize profits....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_trials[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_trials by BRICS+ ? Western citizens have to get rid of these "leaders" ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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