Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Roche: Tamiflu production exceeds demand |
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redcloud
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 08 2006 Status: Offline Points: 334 |
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Posted: March 27 2006 at 9:32am |
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Saw this at Forbes.com:
Humer's Roche: Tamiflu Capacity Exceeds Orders Parmy Olson, 03.16.06, 2:43 PM ET Franz Humer London - Drug glut? Roche Holding became a favorite of the pharmaceutical industry thanks to its flu-busting Tamiflu, and for a while governments looked to be falling over themselves to stockpile the drug. Now it appears that state administrations around the world are lagging in their orders, to the extent that Roche says its capacity is "well in excess" of all its government purchases. The Basel, Switzerland-based firm led by Franz B. Humer ramped up its Tamiflu capacity after striking pacts with several production partners like PPG Industries (nyse: PPG - news - people ) and Sanofi-Aventis, and expanding its own facilities. "We stand ready. There should be no holding back," William Burns, chief executive of Roche's Roche Pharma unit, was quoted as saying by The Associated Press. By the end of this year, Roche said it would be able to produce enough Tamiflu to treat 400 million people. Since 2005, however, the company's political customers have ordered less than half of a single year's worth of Tamiflu production. Roche said it was willing to keep investing in the drug even without government orders coming in, but sooner or later will have to scale back if the purchases don't pick up. Roche says it has received and fulfilled Tamiflu orders from more than 65 countries. A fully effective vaccine for a human strain of bird flu wouldn't be developed until the virus emerges and experts can specially tailor the vaccine. More... |
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ARGH! Everyone has been saying that there is no Tamiflu to be had -
because the government can't buy it - because the company can't make it
fast enough!
(not that I'm convinced it will work anyway, but geeeze.) |
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Well if there is suprluss then hopefully the price will come down so we all can afford to just buy our own instead of hoping the government will have some for us!!!
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updated:
Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche Holding AG said Thursday it has greatly increased its capacity to produce the antiviral drug Tamiflu, but that government orders to stockpile it were lagging far behind. |
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I would like to add having 400 million doses is a drop in the bucket to the some 6 and a half billion people on this planet...
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maskman
Valued Member Joined: March 24 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 71 |
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esp. if 400 million is really only 100 million effective doses
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hope and pray for the best; prepare responsibly for the worst
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thank you maskman
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OK everyone.... Correctness of what was printed in the story aside....
EVERYONE PRINT OUT THE ARTICLE AND RUN, YES RUN, TO YOUR DOCTOR'S OFFICE WITH PRINTOUT AND DEMAND YOUR TAMIFLU. There is no shortage... <waving the printout under his/her nose> "GIMME MINE"!!!!!!!
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BUMP
I want to hear printers whirring out there!
SZ
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oh...i have no ink for my printer..........but SZ read between the lines
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???? My bi-focals aren't real good at reading between the lines. PM me if necessary please.
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redcloud
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 08 2006 Status: Offline Points: 334 |
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For me, the following was the scary part:
"Roche is willing to take some of the risk and make investments without government orders, but sooner or later will have to scale back if the purchases don't pick up, he said." Meanwhile, we are lulled and coddled and reassured by promises of 17 million doses in reserve. Why contract for more, when the danger is "covered." |
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The amount of Tamiflu available will depend on, if you use the standard dose. J Infect Dis. 2005 Aug 15;192(4):665-72. Virulence may determine the necessary duration and dosage of oseltamivir treatment for highly pathogenic A/Vietnam/1203/04 influenza virus in mice. Yen HL, Monto AS, Webster RG, Govorkova EA. Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee 38105-2794, USA. BACKGROUND. Control of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses is a major public-health concern. Antiviral drugs could be the only option early in the pandemic. METHODS. BALB/c mice were given oseltamivir (0.1, 1, or 10 mg/kg/day) twice daily by oral gavage; the first dose was given 4 h before inoculation with H5N1 A/Vietnam/1203/04 (VN1203/04) virus. Five- and 8-day regimens were evaluated. RESULTS. Oseltamivir produced a dose-dependent antiviral effect against VN1203/04 in vivo (P<.01). The 5-day regimen at 10 mg/kg/day protected 50% of mice; deaths in this treatment group were delayed and indicated the replication of residual virus after the completion of treatment. Eight-day regimens improved oseltamivir efficacy, and dosages of 1 and 10 mg/kg/day significantly reduced virus titers in organs and provided 60% and 80% survival rates, respectively (P<.05). Overall, the efficacy of the 5- and 8-day regimens differed significantly (death hazard ratio, 2.658; P<.01). The new H5N1 antigenic variant VN1203/04 was more pathogenic in mice than was A/HK/156/97 virus, and a prolonged and higher-dose oseltamivir regimen may be required for the most beneficial antiviral effect. CONCLUSIONS. Oseltamivir prophylaxis is efficacious against lethal challenge with VN1203/04 virus in mice. Viral virulence may affect the antiviral treatment schedule. PMID: 16028136 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstract&list_uids=16028136&query_hl=7&itool=pubmed_docsum |
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Here it is in plain ENGLISH.....
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Tamiflu's recommended dosing for the flu is 1 capsule 2 time a day for 5 days. Any one who purchased tamiflu has 1 "dose" which is a total of 10 capsules. This study states that giving the "recommended dose" for five days had a 50% mortality rate. For 8 days 20% mortality rate. This mean that you need a minimum of 16 capsules. Since the virus was still shed after 8 days, I would think that is where they have come up with the 10 day, or doubling the dose for a total of 20 Tamiflu capsules. I must point out that ALL THE MICE DIED that were given NO TAMIFLU!! So it seems that we are going to need much more than we originally thought!! I hope this helps... |
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Ah... Diane,
I have calculated it out to be FORTY capsules. 2 caps twice a day for 10 days.
Now, that's just me... making no medical recommendations here folks.... just what I plan to do for mine.
SZ
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No it is 2 capsules a day/ 1 capsule twice a day. Normal dosing is for five days. that is a total of 10 capsules. That is what you get in the tamiflu box. I am looking at one right now. 10 75mg Capsules. If you read in the article that I posted it says that the highest mice dose of 10mg per kg works out to the normal human dose. That is 2 capsules a day. It isn't increasing the daily dose it is increasing the length of time... "The highest dosage was proportional to the dosage humans receive when treated for the flu. Thirty mice received oseltamivir for 5 days—the same regimen as is recommended for humans—while 30 received the drug for 8 days." |
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The amount of Tamiflu available will depend on, if you use the standard dose. J Infect Dis. 2005 Aug 15;192(4):665-72. Virulence may determine the necessary duration and dosage of oseltamivir treatment for highly pathogenic A/Vietnam/1203/04 influenza virus in mice. Yen HL, Monto AS, Webster RG, Govorkova EA. Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee 38105-2794, USA. BACKGROUND. Control of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses is a major public-health concern. Antiviral drugs could be the only option early in the pandemic. METHODS. BALB/c mice were given oseltamivir (0.1, 1, or 10 mg/kg/day) twice daily by oral gavage; the first dose was given 4 h before inoculation with H5N1 A/Vietnam/1203/04 (VN1203/04) virus. Five- and 8-day regimens were evaluated. RESULTS. Oseltamivir produced a dose-dependent antiviral effect against VN1203/04 in vivo (P<.01). The 5-day regimen at 10 mg/kg/day protected 50% of mice; deaths in this treatment group were delayed and indicated the replication of residual virus after the completion of treatment. Eight-day regimens improved oseltamivir efficacy, and dosages of 1 and 10 mg/kg/day significantly reduced virus titers in organs and provided 60% and 80% survival rates, respectively (P<.05). Overall, the efficacy of the 5- and 8-day regimens differed significantly (death hazard ratio, 2.658; P<.01). The new H5N1 antigenic variant VN1203/04 was more pathogenic in mice than was A/HK/156/97 virus, and a prolonged and higher-dose oseltamivir regimen may be required for the most beneficial antiviral effect. CONCLUSIONS. Oseltamivir prophylaxis is efficacious against lethal challenge with VN1203/04 virus in mice. Viral virulence may affect the antiviral treatment schedule. PMID: 16028136 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstract&list_uids=16028136&query_hl=7&itool=pubmed_docsum |
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Okee Doke.
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My dosage decision aside...
We all need to also note that the mice were given Tamiflu FOUR HOURS PRIOR TO BE INFECTED.
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That's why when this goes human to human my husband will go on it prophylacticly, with my daughters and I staying home. He is an Airline Captain, and will have high exposure. It is expensive, but with three young girls at home with severe Asthma, We don't have a choice.
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redcloud
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 08 2006 Status: Offline Points: 334 |
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SophiaZoe,
On what do you base your planned dosage as being twice what is mentioned in the article (or twice Diane's)? Not criticizing, just trying to understand. Given the mice parameters as outlined in the article, what then is the most effective dose, in your opinion, and how did you arrive at it?? Red |
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Yes I was wondering that also. Do you have medical info to back this up? I have only found the above study and another case where there is the possibility that the prophylactic dose was ineffective at one capsule a day. This is a little iffy, since the girl in question may have already been exposed from her brother. I Don't have the info now, I need to get the kids off, but will try to find it and post it later.
Please clarify your thoughts. SZ, I JUST CAN"T UNDERSTAND your recommendation of the DOUBLE DOSE A DAY. In the study they gave three different doses to the mice. .01mg/kg 1mg/kg and 10mg/kg. The 10mg or the highest dose is equivalent to the human recommended daily dose. The only thing this study seems to prove is that you need to extend the time from 5 days, to 8 days. Meaning a total of 16 capsules, not 40. This is also emphasized by the fact that your doctor doubled your dose, by writing you prescriptions for 2 doses for each of your family members. He didn't quadruple it and write it for 4 doses for each family member. The standard recommended dose is 2 capsules for 5 days. In mice that produced a 50% mortality rate. The 2 capsules a day for 8 days produces a 20% mortality rate. That is a TOTAL OF 16 CAPSULES. Since the virus is still shed after 8 days, it would make sense to go to 10 days, making it a total of 20 capsules, not 40. Re-read the article Above. I worry that you will needlessly put yourself at jeopardy by giving your two kids a dose of 40 capsules, and leaving none for you and your husband. This could be over medicating your kids, and could possibly leave them orphans for no medical reason. Please don't take my word, please take the study to your doctor and ask him. It seems he understood the dosing recommendation from the study to be a for a double dose needed, not a quadruple dose. PLEASE, PLEASE check this out!!!
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Well Diane, NO WHERE HAVE I RECOMMENDED A DOSAGE TO ANYONE. I simply stated what I had planned to do for my Twenty-Somethings. And this is what I base it one... I will have ONE SHOT. My son weighs in at just under 200 lbs, well he did prior to our personal world crashing in on us... he has lost weight. Medical dosage is almost always based on men with a standardized weight of something like 140lbs. The test results were flawed in that the mice were administered Tamiflu 4 hours prior to infection with H5N1. I will not know he is infected for up to 72 hours (if I'm lucky) so I will likely be administering Tamiflu after the 48 hours normally stated for the successful treatment window. So, given that I will be slow out the gate, I will throw what I feel is "Best" available at it.
Administering of a dosage that is "Not Enough" is as bad as not administering anything, it just delays the agony. It's a ONE SHOT GAMBLE. I would not have the opportunity to back up and re-group if I discovered the dosage was not strong enough.
And to really set your hair on fire... I will be co-administering Amantadine. The synergy of the two seems to suggest benefit.
BUT I STATE AGAINE...... I AM NOT RECOMMENDING YOU DO THIS.
Most here have NO Tamiflu, let alone 20 caps or 40 caps. It's an exercise in debate only.
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Spoon
Valued Member Joined: January 29 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 607 |
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I am also planning on forty capsules per person. JMO!!!
No recommendations or medical backup.
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It's not so much the apocalypse... but the credit card bills ;-)
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SophiaZoe,
I just wanted to know where you are getting your calculations. Everyone on this board respects your opinion, and if you say "Ah... Diane,
I have calculated it out to be FORTY capsules. 2 caps twice a day for 10 days.
Now, that's just me... making no medical recommendations here folks.... just what I plan to do for mine.
SZ"
You are inferring with the statement " Ah... Diane, I have calculated it out to FORTY capsules. 2 caps twice a day for 10 days." That you "CALCULATED" is in the mathematical process. In the above article it is CALCULATED to 16. I agree that it is a once and done shot. And I may add more as well. It is just that to most people on this forum they respect you, and will take your word as scientific fact. It isn't. It isn't a CALCULATION, It is a GUESS! You very well may be right, god only knows what this world is in for. With all your knowledge, it is probably a very good educated guess. However it is not a "Calculation". Some may take your guess as scientific fact. It is not. |
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Diane,
Once again... Okee Dokee.
You have made your point.
I have made mine.
I make no pretensions as to my "expertise". And I am at a loss as I have a fried laptop with my original data on it. Anyone who bases their medical decisions based on anything ANYONE here posts without independent research or corroboration is being foolish in the extreme.
If a pandemic happens with H5N1 we will all have to make decisions. We will have to live and/or die by those decisions. I would hope that people would make those decisions based on more than what they find listed here.
While I choose to go with my original calculations, you are quite correct to point out to the board that I don't scientific research to back up my conclusions. I thank you for your service to the furtherance of our collective education.
SZ
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I posted this in the other thread but I will post it again in this one just to make sure that my bases are covered....
And just so that people don't think that I pulled this out of my butt....
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I was not challenging you. nor was I inferring that you YOU THINK you are an expert. I am saying that you are a fountainhead of knowledge. When you say something people just think you have all the research done, just sitting on your desk. I like you, have done a lot of research over the past 2 1/2 years, and i hadn't come across anything with those numbers. I was worried that I missed some important data. I have done the planing for my family with the numbers I stated. I am now at ease, knowing that you weren't referencing some data that i missed. Thanks Diane |
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Thank you for the data that you are basing your increase to 4 capsules a day. However They didn't mention that they ALSO extended the time period. I am aware of this study, and the dosing days is 5. 4 X 5 is 20, not forty. I still stand by the statement that it should be 20, not 40 going by scientific data alone.
Diane
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