Indonesia-Ripe for Genetic Mutation

Is Indonesia not entering their flu season now? Could that be a deciding factor?

Grace-

Thanks for your first post!!

Good points, Indonesia is, as you allude to, in the Southern hemisphere so it is their flu season.More chances for genetic mix of regular flu and H5N1.

Indonesia was bad enoough BEFORE regular flu season, so you point is well taken.

Thank you for the welcome JaxMax. Actually, I joined somewhere in March (had only twenty some posts, and mostly on the priority and family preparations), but had to re-register since I couldn't log in anymore after trying everything for about two weeks. I read more than I post.

I am watching Indonesia, China etc. closely too. So many families keeping chickens as practically their only source of livelihood (be it income or food for themselves), and they're often uninformed as well. Something could go on there for a while without being detected for a long time. Added to that, the dubious co-operation and revelation of found H5N1 H2H etc. by the respective governments to the world..
    

Edited by grace - April 26 2006 at 10:26am

It is because of all your and people like JoeNeubarth's postings that I have started to study this. Thank you for all your postings and contributions to this forum.

I like them too but I dont understand the science though!!!

Somehow the first line of birdflubuster's post: "A mutation to human to human contagious form could take place anywhere..", together with the fact that I read that they recreated the 1918 flu somewhere in a laboratory, made me wonder something. Especially with all the talk of Afghanistan. Could someone CREATE a mutated easily transmissable form of H5N1, and release it (like terrorists..no need to carry a bomb, just fly to the US carrying the disease, another type of suicide mission..). In that case let's hope it does not start in Afghanistan. Or am I mistaken, and something like this si not possible. Just wondering..

I agree the environmental catastrophe does not CAUSE the mutation, I would just contend that any envronmental event disrupting normal sanitation (water sewer) would increase expoenentially the likelihood

I thought the 1918 flu was recreated from samples of a frozen eskimo woman and samples from the Armed Forces Pathology Lab.

 

If we can get samples from frozen eskimos, it would be wise to presume terrorists could.

 

Anyone who rams an airliner into the World Trade Center and burns to death would not hesitate to use the flu as a suicide weapon if feasible.They are hindered only by technical inability, not moral restraint. 

JMcB

 

Great post!

 

I have heard from 3 separate sources that Indonesia is the prime area of concern for pandemic cross over by the pros.Notice she says immediate action is critical.

 

Cultural norms lead to an indifference to the risk in  Indonesia. Much has been written of alleged govt coverup of the chicken infection to preserve company profits in the Indonesian media.

 

It is significant that Indonesia is so bad the Chinese are taking note.They are looking there.

 

Speculation is that samples are being extracted by the US and China from Indonesia as a type of guinea pig for a vaccine.

 

All that can be confirmed from published reports is the US military did send a Naval monitoring lab there in December 2005 and there was a dispute over economic royalties from a vacine with the Indonesian governemnt.

Regarding JaxMax original post I would add the China has a population now of about 1.3 billion people, about 13 billion chickens, about 508 million pigs and they all exist in an environment where direct human/animal interaction and contact are FAR more common than in our society.  Add to that the same general human/animal interaction model in Indonesia and you can readily envision the inevitability of a pandemic strain occurring in Asia.   As these populations increase, both man and animal, and time goes by the genetic "pressure cooker" will, indeed must,  turn out the right gene mixture for a pandemic strain.

Jaxmax, you are da man!

Great post! Exactly right, Indonesia has all the factors to go pandemic PLUS, you're excellent observation concerning a natural disaster, i.e. recent earthquake, creating the chaos which could spread AF like wildfire.

Indonesia has two more factors:

1. Birds running free in the streets.

2. Poverty. Chickens are many people's bank account and they may not want to inform the gov. when bird's die.

We may be buckling up soon, this present situation could be ground zero.

BTW, this past year has had record major quakes.

: (

MK

JaxMax wrote: Indonesia has all the ingredients for a Genetic mutation of H5N1 to human communicablity; 1. Widespread H5N1 infection in birds 2. Limited but persistent fatal human contraction of H5N1. 3. Limited but consistent human family clusters,   suggestive of H2H transmission 4. Socio-economic/ sanitary conditions favoring viral spread 5. A large human population The US Defense Department assigned Navy medical specialists to monitor the flu in Indonesia. What is missing is an explosive catalyst, an aggravating factor such as a natural disaster which would reduce or eliminate normal sanitation routines and light the spark for mutation to a Pandemic. It is interesting to note that Indonesia has been undergoing frequent earthquakes, yesterday a 6.1. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/uslybc.php It may be beneficial to monitor natural disasters in H5N1 hot zones.

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=667812006
right on cue!

    

The reason I post this is because we now know the virus can be found in water. And this place has LOTS of water!!!

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailcity.asp?fileid=20060504.H01&irec=0

'Wet blanket' stops activity at Balai Budaya
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The Balai Budaya cultural center has been a favorite haunt of artists and intellectuals for years, but not many people cross its threshold these days for fear their feet will get wet.

For more than two years, the front yard has been at least five centimeters under water.

After Monday's downpour, the water was knee deep.

"I pumped the water out of the front yard to the street last night, but it keeps coming back," Sartiman, 41, an employee at the cultural center on Jl. Gereja Theresia, Central Jakarta, told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.

Once considered one of the city's cultural centers, where the country's top intellectuals and artists -- such as writer and journalist Goenawan Muhammad and poet Rendra -- used to hang out, Balai Budaya is now abandoned, due to the city's poor drainage system.

Sartiman said the drainage ditch along Jl. Gereja Theresia had been clogged for years and the authorities took no interest in the problem.

"You asked me if I ever reported this to the Jakarta Public Works Agency? They just don't care," Abas Alibasya, the director of Balai Budaya management, said.

Last year, Balai Budaya only held three painting exhibitions, while this year, it has just one exhibition scheduled.

"The water makes people so reluctant to come here," Abas said, adding that he was also waiting for a response from the Cultural and Tourism Ministry on the matter, in order to get people to come back to the cultural center.

The paving stones in the yard have a mossy covering and people walk along a sheet of plywood to get to the front door. The water pump in the yard serves as a constant reminder of the city's struggle to improve its drainage system.

Drainage is a major problem in the city as 40 percent of the city's land area is below sea level. In addition, 13 major rivers pass through the city, adding to the drainage woes.

At least 78 areas in the city are prone to flooding, most of them in North Jakarta. Although the administration has placed at least 181 water pumps and 43 water pump stations in these areas, flooding invariably follows heavy rain.

"Forty percent of Jakarta's land is about 24,000 hectares, while the existing water pumps could only serve 9,000 hectares," the head of the water resources development unit at the city's public works agency, I Gde Nyoman Suandi, told the Post.

He said that even areas around Balai Budaya on Jl. Thamrin, Jl. Wahid Hasyim, Jl. Kebon Sirih and Jl. Jaksa, were not free from flooding.

"We're going to start the project to widen Cideng River and install new pumps in the Melati dam to reduce flooding in Central Jakarta," he said, adding that flooding would continue until the construction of the East Flood Canal was finished.

The agency, however, once blamed the poor drainage on the badly coordinated construction of underground networks belonging to different institutions, including water pipes, gas pipes and phone cables, which often crisscross the drainage tunnels. (01)

You got that right JaxMax. Thank you.

And what ever happened with the family of 8 from Jakarta? Does anyone remember the news on 5/1 about Abidi and Sarmawati, 2 of their 6 kids had died of bird flu on Mar 31 and Apr 4? Other 6 members of family were hospitalized (4+ and 2-)?  I saw it at The Jakarta Post.com and have never read an update.

Recombinomics reports new clusters in Indonesia. http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05100602/H5N1_Sumatra.html 

 

Also another earthquake 5.1, putting strain on even the minimal sanitation systems.

Indoniesians have pet birds in the homes They view pet birds the same as we do dogs and cats. They also have political problems, the leader of the country has refused to do what has worked in Viet nam and Thailand, that is cull birds rigorously he doesnt have the popular support to do that. Hence the virus is now endemic in the area. You are all correct in your observation that this area is ripe for a mutation that could fuel a pandemic.

In addition to the problems noted by janetn and Deanna, Indonesia is undergoing earthquakes every day.

 

Imagine the stress on an already overburdened water and sanitation system, and how the earthquakes hinder good sanitation practices and increase succeptibility to H5N1.

 

Indonesia had a 5.1 quake on May 10, and a 5.1 again toady (may 11, 2006). http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

JMcB-

 

Thanks for the post.

 

Indonesia seems to have it all, H5N1, numerous chickens, poor sanitation, 25 WHO confirmed human H5N1 fatalities and to further compromise sanitation it has the disruption caused by daily earthquakes and volcanoes.

birdflubuster wrote: A mutation to human to human contagious form could take place anywhere, since it's a random event by a virus unaffected by external conditions. Possibly, it's already happened but the victim before transmitting it. It could happen more than 1 place at a time, or serially. If it happens someplace and is contained, don't become complacent. It could pop up in an entirely new continent the next month. We're at risk for as long as H5N1 is endemic to the environment, and it's sure not going away soon. I hope it does happen in Afghanistan. Population density is low there.

mach-

 

I certainly agree. I am no expert in genetics, I just know even a bad shot may eventually hit the target if he shoots a lot of bullets. Indonesia provides lots of bullets.

And now, ANOTHER  earthquake pummels Indonesia. 6.1 on May 13, 2006.

And Ready Mom has a separate post about the volcano ready to blow.

Even advanced western countries would have severe strain on thier sanitation systems with daily earthquakes. With chickens all over the place, H5N1 endemic, 25 WHO confirmed human deaths, a recent family cluster, and daily degradation in normal sanitation from earthquakes, how can Indonesia NOT be the Index site for rapidly spreading H2H?

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php