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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Mild form of avian flu found in New Jersey

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jtg1969 View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 01 2006 at 9:13am
 

Mild form of avian flu found in New Jersey

Mon May 1, 2006 11:46am ET164

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Authorities have discovered a mild form of avian influenza at a live bird market in New Jersey, but it is not the deadly H5N1 strain governments around the world are trying to contain, the state's agriculture department said.

"The strain was found in a live bird market in Camden County. None of the birds in the market died from this virus, which is an indicator that the virus was low pathogenic and not harmful to humans," said a statement by New Jersey's Agriculture Secretary Charles Kuperus which was posted on Friday.

Details were not immediately available on precisely when the avian flu in Camden County was discovered.

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza not only kills chickens quickly, but can now infect people, and governments around the world are scrambling to contain its spread. Scientists fear that if the virus acquires the ability to pass easily from person to person, it could cause a pandemic that would kill millions.

The H5N1 avian flu strain has already infected 205 people and killed 113 since 2003. Its spread has forced several countries to ban poultry imports from nations where the disease has spread.

The H5N1 virus has spread from Asia to Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Kuperus said preliminary tests from the National Veterinary Services laboratory were negative for type N1 of the virus. More tests are pending at laboratories of the U.S. Agriculture Department in Ames, Iowa, to confirm the strain of the virus, he added.

"The market owner voluntarily depopulated his existing flock, and the market has undergone cleaning and disinfecting under New Jersey Department of Agriculture supervision," said Kuperus.

The market in Camden County will be inspected again by New Jersey's Division of Animal Health before being allowed to reopen.

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved. 

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oknut View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2006 at 9:16am
Why are they still not reporting what strain it was?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2006 at 5:03pm
I find that incredible too. If it isn't H5N1, what is it???
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drpepper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2006 at 5:48pm
ok HOLD UP HERE...........

mild form of avian flu...........extermination of WHOLE FLOCK..........

but no deaths...hmmmmm....greatest coverup story ever....not......

surprised not to see more interest in avian flu in our midst-any strain.....


"of the two witnesses, listen to your conscience"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2006 at 7:09pm
    1. It's avian flu.
    2. They culled all the birds.
    3. Did they cull the birds before the flock could   
        die?
    4. No human transmission.
    5. They still have to test. They got no idea of which avian flu it is. Yet they can say it okay its mild.
SOUNDS LIKE A COVER UP TO ME....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Acesh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2006 at 9:02pm
birdlady
Yup the fact that they don't say which Avian Flu it is/was  is an outrage.
Like ..." its ok, we killed all the sick chicks, its fine to eat as long as you cook them.." total BS.
What they get from this obvious blatant obfuscation is distrust!!
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2006 at 9:48pm
if they don't publish the strain this week, i'm ready to write a little e-mail to the jersey's department of Ag.-I'm really upset that they think the public does not deserve more info that this.it does not matter if it ends up being a milk strain etc., it's a matter of principle to keep people informed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Acesh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2006 at 10:00pm
Worrywart,
I agree, I thought I'd go mad when I saw how fast they hushed up the bird flu incident in Scotland.  They suddenly didn't accept the speedy test kits. They began reporting once a week rather than daily.  It was obnoxious.  (still is)
Now they pullin that same type of thing in New Jersey. 
It's not right. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jtg1969 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 02 2006 at 4:37am

Bird Flu Strain Not Dangerous To People Found In N.J. Market

POSTED: 7:55 pm EDT May 1, 2006
UPDATED: 8:35 pm EDT May 1, 2006

TRENTON, N.J. -- A strain of bird flu not dangerous to people turned up at a live poultry market in South Jersey during routine testing last week and samples are undergoing further tests, the state Department of Agriculture said.

Preliminary results from the National Veterinary Services laboratory showed the samples, taken from birds at a live poultry market in Camden County, did not have the N1 type of virus. The bird flu strain that has spread to 45 countries, killed more than 110 people since 2003 and sparked fears of a deadly pandemic is called H5N1.

"Anything that was sold, if it was properly cooked and handled, it would not be of any consequence to humans," said Agriculture Department spokesman Jeff Beach.

Beach said three samples taken from the beaks or rectal areas of chickens on April 21 and April 24 showed a strain of bird flu not considered harmful to people. All live poultry markets in New Jersey are tested quarterly for bird flu, and it is not uncommon for strains that are harmful only to birds to be detected.

Once the initial results were received, the market owner voluntarily killed the remaining 137 birds there. The market was then cleaned and sanitized under supervision of staff from the state Agriculture Department. The Department's Division of Animal Health is to inspect the market again before it can reopen and more poultry can be brought in, according to the department. The department would not identify the specific name or location of the market.

Meanwhile, the infected samples found last week are undergoing further testing at U.S. Department of Agriculture laboratories in Ames, Iowa, to confirm the strain of the virus.

Beach said that the results will be back this week, possibly as soon as Tuesday.

© 2006 by The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 02 2006 at 4:45am
Thanks jtg1969 for posting that article.

At least it sounds as though they are testing to determine the actual strain. Hopefully, they will release the results soon.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 02 2006 at 11:34am
Originally posted by jtg1969 jtg1969 wrote:

Meanwhile, the infected samples found last week are undergoing further testing at U.S. Department of Agriculture laboratories in Ames, Iowa, to confirm the strain of the virus.

Beach said that the results will be back this week, possibly as soon as Tuesday.

© 2006 by The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed

 
It s Tuesday!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lutosh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 05 2006 at 9:11am

Wonder what happened to those test results due back possibly  Tuesday???

 

Discovery of Strain of Bird Flu in New Jersey Prompts Doctors to Offer Vegetarian Starter Kit

Meatless Diets Could Help Stop the Disease at Its Source, Physicians' Group Says

WASHINGTON—In response to the discovery of a strain of avian flu in chickens and ducks in a live bird market in New Jersey, the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine (PCRM) is offering a free 16-page Vegetarian Starter Kit to worried consumers.


The strain in New Jersey is not the lethal H5N1 strain of the flu, which has not yet been found in the United States. But health authorities fear the possibility of a deadly pandemic if the H5N1 virus mutates and begins spreading easily among humans. PCRM experts are available to explain how a vegetarian diet could help prevent the disease by eliminating the factory farms where avian flu breeds.

Avian influenza develops on poultry farms, where routine confinement, overcrowding, and poor sanitary conditions create the perfect reservoir for viruses and other diseases to incubate and spread. Once a pathogen emerges, it can be spread by migrating birds or commercial livestock transport. As the New Jersey discovery reveals, the United States is not immune. More than 16 outbreaks of H5 and H7 influenza have occurred among poultry in the United States since 1997, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Transmission from chickens, turkeys, and ducks to humans is a serious threat. The U.S. poultry industry employs more than 200,000 workers, many of whom come in daily contact with potentially infected poultry and contaminated surfaces.

But a meatless diet helps eliminate the farms that breed infectious disease. Vegetarian eating habits also eliminate animal fat and cholesterol, which have been linked to heart disease, one of America’s top killers.

“The fat and cholesterol in chicken and turkey are two good reasons not to eat poultry products,” says PCRM nutritionist Susan Levin, M.S., R.D. “Switching to a vegetarian diet would dramatically decrease obesity, high blood pressure, and heart disease. But consumers also deserve to know that meatless eating habits could help reduce the risk of a bird-flu pandemic.”

PCRM’s Vegetarian Starter Kit offers a three-step plan for moving to a healthier diet and is packed with recipes, nutrition information, and cooking tips. Research has shown that vegetarians are slimmer than meat-eaters and have less risk of heart disease, some cancers, and diabetes. To request a free copy of the Vegetarian Starter Kit, consumers should contact PCRM at 202-686-2210, ext. 306, or
literature@pcrm.org. Nutrition information and vegetarian recipes can also be found at www.PCRM.org.

To schedule an interview with Susan Levin or another PCRM expert, please call Patrick Sullivan at 202-686-2210, ext. 311, or psullivan@pcrm.org.

Founded in 1985, the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine is a nonprofit health organization that promotes preventive medicine, especially good nutrition. PCRM also conducts clinical research studies, opposes unethical human experimentation, and promotes alternatives to animal research.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 05 2006 at 10:58am
Yep, Tuesday has come and gone and all they are still saying is that it's not H5N1.

Think I remember earlier articles only saying not N1, which seemed pretty odd.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 05 2006 at 12:28pm
Looks like they are holding the test results hostage... here are some from the past.  Looks like previous infections of  H5 and H7
 
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03060601/H5N1_Recombination_Guangdong_PB2.html
CY004398  A/herring gull/New Jersey/402/1989                1989  H5N3   
CY004976  A/herring gull/New Jersey/406/1989                1989  H5N3 
CY004389  A/herring gull/New Jersey/780/1986                1986  H1N3   
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02260602/H5N1_Astrakhan_American.html
CY005084  A/red knot/New Jersey/325/1989                 1989  H7N7
CY003928  A/laughing gull/New Jersey/798/1986           1986  H2N7
CY004829  A/laughing gull/New Jersey/72/1985             1985  H4N9
CY004391  A/ruddy turnstone/New Jersey/49/1985        1985  H4N9
CY004411  A/ruddy turnstone/New Jersey/65/1985        1985  H7N3
 
   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2006 at 2:14am
A friend  mentioned that they saw the type today in the paper today... has anyone read the subtype they convinently leave it out here.
 
Can't wait to here your response to this article
 
 
AVIAN INFLUENZA STATEMENT
press conference


For Immediate Release: May 4, 2006

Contact: Jeff Beach (609) 292-5531 or Lynne Richmond (609) 610-3526

New Jersey Secretary of Agriculture Charles M. Kuperus today issued the following statement regarding final USDA test results on Avian Influenza detected during routine testing at a Camden County live bird market on April 21 and 24:

Routine testing in New Jersey's live bird market system on April 21 and 24 turned up a strain of Avian Influenza (AI) that appeared to be low pathogenic and could not harm humans.  Further tests on the samples from the Camden County live bird market showed the detected virus posed no risk to humans. In fact, the tests indicated the virus was dead and could not have harmed humans or birds. 

The initial finding was not an uncommon occurrence, since various strains of AI harmful only to birds are sometimes detected during routine testing.   Recent negative results from the more detailed “virus isolation” test, conducted at the Ames, Iowa, USDA laboratory, indicate that initial results from one lot of chickens and one lot of ducks detected dead virus that could not have harmed humans or birds.

Results are still being awaited from a third sample taken from a second lot of ducks.  That sample was sent to Ames at a later date, but to this point, no viral growth has occurred from that sample either.

The results of both the screening and virus isolation tests show the value of the testing protocol. The screening test is sensitive enough to detect even weak or dead virus. The confirmatory tests at Ames are designed to determine whether those screening tests have detected anything that should be of a concern to humans. The Department will continue working with its state partners and USDA to be vigilant in detecting AI in order to ensure the safety of the food system.

The market owner voluntarily depopulated his existing flock. After he cleaned and disinfected the market, it was inspected again by the New Jersey Department of Agriculture’s Division of Animal Health and allowed to repopulate and reopen.

Again, the Department reminds consumers that poultry products remain safe to eat, even where forms of the virus are detected. Proper handling and thorough cooking (between 165 and 180 degrees) renders the AI virus harmless.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gimme Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2006 at 7:21am

This is just so reassuring to the consumers. 

One check every 3 months, in N.J.  It was and it wasn't a virus.  It was a dead virus. .... "state partners and USDA to be vigilant in detecting AI in order to ensure the safety of the food system."
(Vigilantly collecting the little test kits.. more likely)
Remember Kiddies... "Proper handling and thorough cooking (between 165 and 180 degrees) renders the AI virus harmless."
 
Dead This incident REEKS.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2006 at 10:15am
We want to know the truth about New Jersey.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2006 at 10:46am

I guess they assume we have disposable cooks, who never touch anything other than the chicken, don't have cuts on their hands, don't breath, etc., etc., etc.

This statement just boggles my mind "In fact, the tests indicated the virus was dead and could not have harmed humans or birds. "

Do they really believe we are that stupid... I.E. Dead Avian Influenza virus magically appears at live (Avian) bird market!

Considering that H5N1 will show up this spring and may already be here... the information in the following articles should be considered by the USDA in any statement they provide to the public:

HELEN BRANSWELL

Canadian Press

Toronto — Live H5N1 avian flu virus can be isolated in the blood of its human victims, a finding that will be reported by Thai researchers in an upcoming issue of a scientific journal. (Peer Reviewed)

Evidence that H5N1 can spread via the bloodstream to parts of the body not normally attacked by influenza viruses confirms this particular flu strain poses special challenges for both patient treatment and infection control, experts say. It also raises theoretical questions about the safety of the donated blood system should H5N1 trigger a pandemic.

“This is the first report of a high amount of (H5N1) virus in blood in humans,” University of Ottawa virologist Earl Brown said of the findings, outlined in a letter slated for publication in the June issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases.....

It also raises concerns about infection control for health-care workers and laboratory scientists coming in contact with the blood of H5N1 patients — although precautions against contact with blood are widespread as a consequence of years of experience with blood-borne infections like HIV and hepatitis C.

“I think for this kind of flu, infection control measures should include all bodily secretions, basically,” Dr. de Jong said.

The findings also raise questions about whether blood transfusions could be a source of infection if H5N1 were to become a pandemic strain.

Canadian Blood Services and the American Red Cross have been studying the issue, but currently it is believed that the risk is more theoretical than real, because influenza's incubation period is so short. Once people develop symptoms they would be unlikely to want to give blood and would probably be turned away if they showed up to a blood-donor clinic.

"From the blood-donor and blood-supply point of view, the issue would be whether there's virus in the blood before the patient becomes ill,” said Dr. Jeffrey McCullough, who holds an American Red Cross professorship in transfusion medicine at the University of Minnesota."

The highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H7N7) virus epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003--lessons learned from the first five outbreaks.

Elbers AR, Fabri TH, de Vries TS, de Wit JJ, Pijpers A, Koch G.

Department of Virology, Central Institute for Animal Disease Control-Lelystad (CIDC-Lelystad), P.O. Box 2004, 8203 AA Lelystad, The Netherlands.

"... The absence of HPAI from the Netherlands for more than 75 yr created a situation in which poultry farmers and veterinary practitioners did not think of AI in the differential diagnosis as a possible cause of the clinical problems seen.

Increased and progressive mortality was not reported to the governmental authorities by farmers or veterinary practitioners. 
 
....  in order to detect low pathogenic avian influenza infections that could possibly change to high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI), a continuous serologic monitoring system has been set up, in which commercial poultry flocks are screened for antibodies against AI virus of subtypes H5 and H7.
 
 
Should we change the definition of avian influenza for eradication purposes?

Alexander DJ.

European Union Community Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza, Virology Department, VLA-Weybridge, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom.

The current definitions of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI), formulated over 10 years ago, were aimed at including viruses that were overtly virulent in in vivo tests and those that had the potential to become virulent.
 
At that time the only virus known to have mutated to virulence was the one responsible for the 1983-84 Pennsylvania epizootic. Definition of Epizootic: An epidemic outbreak of disease in an animal population, often with the implication that it may extend to humans.
 
The mechanism involved has not been seen in other viruses, but the definition set a precedent for statutory control of potentially pathogenic as well as overtly virulent viruses.
 
The accumulating evidence is that HPAI viruses arise from low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) H5 or H7 viruses infecting chickens and turkeys after spread from free-living birds.
 
At present it can only be assumed that all H5 and H7 viruses have this potential and mutation to virulence is a random event.
 
Therefore, the longer the presence and greater the spread in poultry the more likely it is that HPAI virus will emerge.
 
The outbreaks in Pennsylvania, Mexico, and Italy are demonstrations of the consequences of failing to control the spread of LPAI viruses of H5 and H7 subtypes.
 
It therefore seems desirable to control LPAI viruses of H5 and H7 subtype in poultry to limit the probability of a mutation to HPAI occurring. This in turn may require redefining statutory AI.
 
There appear to be three options: 1) retain the current definition with a recommendation that countries impose restrictions to limit the spread of LPAI of H5 and H7 subtypes; 2) define statutory AI as an infection of birds/poultry with any AI virus of H5 or H7 subtype; 3) define statutory AI as any infection with AI virus of H5 or H7 subtype, but modify the control measures imposed for different categories of virus and/or different types of host.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote outsidethecamp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2006 at 8:56pm
What is the truth regarding  BF found in N J ??? 

Maybe,  they are waiting until Tues. evening when the BF movie hits main-line television... big time.   

Then they can release the truth and everybody will already be in a panic so it won't have as big of an impact.  Who knows...

I'm tired of trying to figure out the media's take on all of this. 

God help us alll...
Peggy



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2006 at 11:07pm

So how common are these LPAI strains?  If the market owner hadn't voluntarily "depopulated" the market, would he have been made to do so by authorities?  Dead virus.... that's a new one on me.Wacko ("shut up and eat your chicken...")

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 07 2006 at 1:10pm

They test regularly for AI...

Because H5 and H7 subtypes sometimes become virulent; there are guidelines that mandate that the birds be culled if they find certain strains.
 
I posted this info a couple of days ago.
 
Topic: Canadian Food Inspection Agency Info H5, H7, H9
    Posted: Yesterday at 12:18pm
http://www.inspection.gc.ca/english/anima/heasan/disemala/avflu/bacdoc/avflutypese.shtml

Canadian Food Inspection Agency

Avian Influenza - Virus Subtypes

What is avian influenza?

Avian influenza (AI) is a contagious viral infection caused by the influenza virus Type "A", which can affect several species of food producing birds (chickens, turkeys, quails, guinea fowl, etc.), as well as pet birds and wild birds. All subtypes of influenza A viruses are naturally hosted by wild waterfowl.

What’s the difference between low and high pathogenicity?

Avian influenza viruses can be classified into two categories: low pathogenic (LPAI) and high pathogenic (HPAI) forms based on the severity of the illness caused in domestic birds. The first causes mild illness, including ruffled feathers or reduced egg production. The second form, known as "high pathogenic avian influenza" is of greater concern. This form is extremely contagious in birds and rapidly fatal.

How many variations of the virus exist?

Influenza A viruses can be divided into subtypes based on two proteins on the surface of the virus - hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). There are 16 known HA subtypes (H1-H16) and nine NA subtypes (N1-N9). Any number of combinations are possible, as each virus has one HA and one NA antigen.

Are all avian influenza viruses the same?

Most avian influenza viruses are low pathogenic and typically result in little or no clinical signs in infected birds.

Only the H5 and H7 subtypes are of concern in domestic birds. Over the past 30 years only the H5 and H7 subtypes have been known to mutate into high pathogenic forms, therefore affecting birds at a higher rate.
 
All other subtypes (H1 through H4, H6 and H8 through H16) may cause disease and death in domestic birds. However, the illness spreads at a much slower rate than H5 and H7. Depopulation of birds infected with the H5 or H7 virus contributes significantly to reducing the amount of virus in the environment, therefore preventing the spread of the virus.

How many variations have been associated with illness in humans?

Some variations of the H5, H7 and H9 subtypes have also been associated with illness and disease in humans. Specifically H5N1 (most recently in Asia), H7N7 (previously in the Netherlands) and H9N2 (previously in Southern China and Hong Kong) have been known to cause illness in people.

For more information, visit the Public Health Agency of Canada Web site at: http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/influenza/avian_e.html

Which subtypes are routinely tested for?

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency has the capability to test for all sixteen subtypes of avian influenza.

In the case of an epizootic (animal epidemic), the focus of testing would become the H5 and the H7 and their subtypes, which have caused disease in domestic birds in the past and which have historically been known to change from low to high pathogenic.

Is there historical data in existence to which we can compare these new survey results?

A number of scientific studies, carried out by American scientists, have been published over the last 30 years. These studies were much narrower in scope than Canada’s wildlife survey. They focussed on two migratory pathways and had only limited sampling in Canada.

The survey undertaken by the Canadian Cooperative Wildlife Health Centre is broader in scope and more comprehensive in nature thereby providing the information necessary to provide a consistent and national benchmark for Avian Influenza in wild birds.

The table below demonstrates that the findings in Quebec at 7 % and in Manitoba at 4 % are both within the literature reported range of 0 to 7.4 %.

North American Findings of Avian Influenza in Wild Birds in the Last 30 Years

The following table outlines the occurrence of Avian Influenza virus subtypes in wild birds that have tested positive for AI.

Most Common Isolates H5 Isolates H7 Isolates H9 Isolates
H3 (32 - 44%)
H4 (5.8 - 28.5%)
H6 (3.3 - 16%)
0 - 7.4%
N types 2, 3, 4, 8, 9
( no N 1 detected )
1.0 - 4.2%
N types 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9
0.3 - 7.6%
N types 1-9
More Info I posted a while back
 
Originally posted by Jhetta Jhetta wrote:

[QUOTE=Rivky]anon_22 – at 14:39

Hi all, Webster did an extremely important presentation today on ‘Gaps in pandemic preparedness.’

The comments on ‘you will get infected, you’ll get very sick, but you probably won’t die’ had to do with his suggestion to make a whole virus pre-pandemic vaccine, using the A/HK/213/03 strain, recombined with N3. He said that they did a study with ferrets using this vaccine provided complete protection from homologous challenge, including the extremely lethal A/Vietnam/1203/04.

The ‘minimum of 10 mutations to go h2h’ comment: needed at least 3 HA, 2 for PB2, and at least one of each of the others. “The mutations are all out there, but the virus hasn’t brought it together, like ducks in a row.”

I posted this info in another thread... should help with the two posts above:
Have been looking into information regarding local flu in different regions that could combine with H5N1.  Found N7N7, H7N2, H9N2 & H3N2 to be of interest. See chart at bottom of page.


"Atlanta, GA, Mar. 24 (UPI) -- The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has begun a series of experiments to see how likely the bird flu virus could result in a human pandemic.

The six-month series of experiments seeks to simulate the mixing and matching of genes from the H5N1 avian flu virus that has plagued Asia and a common human flu virus that public-health experts fear could turn avian flu into a pandemic, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

CDC scientists inside an ultra-secure laboratory have started swapping the genes of the H5N1 avian virus with the genes of an H3N2 virus, the strain behind most recent human flu outbreaks.

The goal is to substitute the eight genes of each virus, one by one, with the eight genes from the other virus to see which of more than 250 possible combinations create flu viruses that could spread easily among humans.

The work responds to fears by global public health experts that the bird flu virus could mutate to form one that could spawn a global outbreak of the disease."

Influenza Report 2006 | Avian Influenza
 
"Transmission to other Mammals

Avian influenza viruses have been transmitted to different mammal species on several occasions. Here, following cycles of replication and adaptation, new epidemic lineages can be founded. Pigs, in particular, have been frequently involved in such 'interclass transversions'. In European pig populations, avian-like H1N1 viruses are highly prevalent (Heinen 2002) and an H1N2 virus, a human-avian reassortant virus, first isolated in the U.K. in 1992, is constantly gaining ground (Brown 1998). In the U.S., a triple reassortant (H3N2) between the classical H1N1, the human H3N2 and avian subtypes is circulating (Olsen 2002). Other subtypes of presumably avian origin (e.g. H1N7, H4N6) have been found mainly anecdotally in swine (Brown 1997, Karasin 2000). A H9N2 virus of avian provenance is moderately prevalent in swine populations in the East of China (Xu 2004). In addition to swine, marine mammals and horses have been shown to acquire influenza A viruses from avian sources (Guo 1992, Ito 1999).

Natural infection with H5N1 was described in tigers and other large cats in a zoo in Thailand after the animals were fed with virus-positive chicken carcasses (Keawcharoen 2004, Quirk 2004, Amosin 2005). Severe disease accompanied by high mortality ensued. Also, cat-to-cat transmission has apparently occurred in the same zoo (Thanawongnuwech 2005). This was the first report of influenza virus infections in Felidae. Household European short hair cats can experimentally be infected with the H5N1 virus (Kuiken 2004).

In 2004, 3,000 serum samples obtained from free roaming pigs in Vietnam were tested serologically for evidence of exposure to the H5N1 influenza virus (Choi 2005). Virus neutralisation assay and Western blot analysis confirmed that only 0.25 % of the samples were seropositive. In experimental infections, it was shown that pigs can be infected with H5N1 viruses isolated in Asia in 2004 from human and avian sources. A mild cough and elevated body temperature were the only symptoms observed for four days post infection. Virus could be isolated from tissues of the upper respiratory tract for at least 6 days. Peak viral titres from nasal swabs were found on day 2 post infection, but none of the experimentally infected animals transmitted the infection to contact pigs. The highly lethal H5N1 viruses circulating in Asia seem to be capable of naturally infecting pigs. However, the incidence of such infections has been apparently low. None of the avian and human H5N1 viruses tested were readily transmitted between pigs under experimental conditions (Choi 2005). Based on these observations, pigs probably do not currently play an important role in the epidemiology of the Asian lineage H5N1.

An outbreak of the highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza in poultry, in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany in Spring 2003, caused infection and mild illness, predominantly conjunctivitis, in 89 poultry workers exposed to infected animals and carcasses (Koopmans 2004). The infection of one veterinarian caused an acute respiratory distress syndrome and took a fatal course (Fouchier 2004). In addition, during the Dutch outbreak, H7N7 infection was virologically and serologically confirmed in several household contacts, four of which showed conjunctivitis (Du Ry van Beest Holle 2005). Evidence for (asymptomatic) natural infection with LPAIV strains of H9, H7 and H5 subtypes in humans has also been reported on other occasions in Italy and Japan (Zhou 1996, Puzelli 2005, Promed 20060110.0090).

In an anecdotal report (Promed Mail 20050826), a fatal infection due to H5N1 influenza in three rare civet cats born in captivity at a national park in Vietnam was mentioned. The source of the infection remained obscure. Another 20 civets of the same species, housed in adjacent cages, did not become sick.

Avian influenza viruses have never been detected in rats, rabbits and various other mammals present at live bird markets in Hong Kong where 20 % of the chickens were found positive for the Asian lineage H5N1 (Shortridge 1998)........

Table 3. Documented human infections with avian influenza viruses*
Date Country/Area Strain Cases (Deaths) Symptoms Source
1959 USA H7N7** 1 respiratory overseas travel
1995 UK H7N7 1 conjunctivitis pet ducks (shared lake with migratory birds)
1997 Hong Kong H5N1** 18 (6) respiratory/
pneumonia
poultry
1998 China (Guangdong) H9N2 5 unknown unknown
1999 Hong Kong H9N2 2 respiratory poultry; unknown
2003

(Feb.)

Hong Kong H5N1** 2 (1) respiratory unknown
2003

(Mar.)

Netherlands H7N7** 89 (1) conjunctivitis (pneumonia, respiratory insufficiency in fatal case) poultry
2003

(Dec.)

Hong Kong H9N2 1 respiratory unknown
2003 New York H7N2 1 respiratory unknown
2003 Vietnam H5N1** 3 (3) respiratory poultry
2004 Vietnam H5N1** 29 (20) respiratory poultry
2004 Thailand H5N1** 17 (12) respiratory poultry
2004 Canada H7N3** 2 conjunctivitis poultry
2005 Vietnam H5N1** 61 (19) respiratory poultry
2005 Thailand H5N1** 5 (2) respiratory poultry
2005 China H5N1** 7 (3) respiratory poultry
2005 Cambodia H5N1** 4 (4) respiratory poultry
2005 Indonesia H5N1** 16 (11) respiratory poultry
2006 Turkey H5N1** 3 (3) respiratory poultry"
 
 
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Quite a bit of documented low path or LPAI H5N1, H7, H5 info in this old article.  It seems to be less censored as well!

Why the bird flu's so dangerous
Close watch on strain that could mutate into deadly human virus
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/10/17/MNGRHF9FID1.DTL

Sabin Russell, Chronicle Medical Writer

Monday, October 17, 2005

A health worker in Vulturul, Romania, carries domestic fo... A Sampling of Avian Influenza Viruses. Chronicle graphic ...

Like the biggest lout in a clan of bad neighbors, the H5N1 bird flu virus is just the worst of a large family of avian influenzas that regularly threaten poultry farms and sometimes menace human health. The bird flu that has been making headlines in recent months -- spanning the globe from Indonesia to Romania -- has been a grave concern for scientists since 1997, when it decimated chicken flocks in Hong Kong and killed six people.

While the discovery that bird flu could jump directly to humans is relatively new, avian influenzas have been troublesome for agriculture at least since 1878, when Italian poultry were beset with a disease labeled fowl plague.

Because of the way influenza viruses readily mutate and juggle genes, there are now 144 possible subtypes of influenzas that can infect birds. Out of this variety, a handful of combinations bearing names such has H5N1, H5N2, H7N7 and H7N3 regularly pose a serious risk to poultry.

Researchers fear that H5N1 could mutate into a form that transmits easily among humans, triggering a worldwide pandemic that that could kill tens of millions.

"We may sound like we are hyperventilating, but in our heart of hearts we know this is a serious possibility,'' said Dr. Andrew Pavia, director of the Task Force on Pandemic Influenza for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Although the H5N1 virus does not pass easily between humans, at least 116 people have contracted the virus -- nearly all from close contact with infected birds -- and 60 have died.

The 1918 Spanish flu, which caused 50 to 100 million deaths, appears to have been a bird flu that became a human virus with just a few key mutations. Pandemic flus in 1957 and 1968, which caused serious human illness, were launched when human strains picked up genes from bird strains.

Although the stakes have obviously grown higher, for decades bird flu monitoring efforts were aimed primarily at protecting commercial poultry flocks.

"Any avian influenza is bad news for a poultry house,'' said Hon Ip, director of the National Wildlife Center virology lab in Madison, Wis. "But not all of them cause the same degree of worry.''

Most avian influenzas -- such as those in wild birds -- cause few if any symptoms. But around the world, more serious, "highly pathogenic" strains emerge regularly.

Bird-killing viruses visited chicken flocks in the United States twice in the 1920s, and in 1983 caused a disastrous outbreak in Pennsylvania poultry resulting in the culling of 17 million birds.

Today an international network of biologists, affiliated with governments and the United Nations, monitors poultry flocks and wild birds for signs of flu.

 
Since 1959, the worldwide networks have recorded at least 22 outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian flu -- avian influenza capable of wiping out chicken, geese or turkey flocks.

Dennis Senne, a microbiologist for the National Veterinary Services Laboratories, in Ames, Iowa, said the federal avian flu monitoring program has been screening 1.3 million birds annually for antibody traces of exposure to avian influenza. The program is expanding.

"We feel we look pretty hard,'' he said. "Soon we will be approaching 3 million tests per year.''

Discoveries of deadly bird flus are relatively rare, compared to the dozens of different strains of low pathogenic influenzas biologists detect each year.

Ominously, bird flus that appear at first to be low pathogenic can evolve suddenly into a more deadly strain. That is apparently what happened in Pennsylvania in 1983, when a mild avian strain known as H5N2 suddenly turned highly contagious and lethal to birds.

UC Davis avian flu expert Dr. Carol Cardona noted that although a strain of flu may be mild for birds, it could pose a threat to humans. The only flu strains known to readily infect humans -- from families of bird flu known as H1, H2 and H3 -- are not highly lethal to birds.

Most of the deadliest bird flus come from families known as H5 and H7. "When we see an H5 or H7, even if it is a low pathogenic, we jump in with both feet,'' Cardona said.

In flocks where infection is found, all birds are killed to prevent the spread of the virus to other farms. It is a strategy that has kept bird flu largely under control in the United States.

Cardona believes the failure to cull flocks infected with H5N1 in Asia has allowed the virus to morph into a particularly persistent strain. "The thing that makes this guy in Asia so bad is that it has been there so long. It is evolving, changing, looking for new hosts,'' she said.

H5N1 comes from a line of viruses that started killing birds in China in 1996. But H5N1 viruses have caused deadly outbreaks in birds as far back as 1959, when one turned up in Scotland. Another H5N1 virus killed birds in England in 1991.

H5N1 viruses have also been detected in the United States -- but these identically named strains were low pathogenic and apparently caused no illness in birds or humans. The virus most recently left its footprint in Michigan in 2001, when turkeys routinely tested for avian flu at a processing plant tested positive for antibodies to an H5N1 strain.

According to microbiologist Senne, the virus itself was never found, and the infected birds showed no signs of illness. Nor was there any sickness at the farm they came from. No trace of the virus has been seen since in Michigan.

Living samples of an apparently harmless H5N1 virus were also found in 1986 in ducks killed by hunters at a marsh in northern Ohio. Every year at the start of hunting season, Dr. Richard Slemons of Ohio State University obtains samples from the bottoms of freshly killed waterfowl. "I ask the hunters if I can get a swab. They look at me like, 'Boy, are you weird,' '' he said.

The strain he found is called A/Mallard/Ohio/184/1986 (H5N1). "Just because it is an H5 doesn't mean that it's a problem,'' he said.

University of Minnesota veterinarian Dr. David Halvorson isolated two harmless strains of H5N1 in "sentinel ducks" in 1981 and 1985. The ducks are stocked at Minnesota lakes and regularly tested for bird flu. Avian influenzas pose a threat to the state's turkey industry -- one of the largest in the world.

Aside from their name, what these H5N1 viruses have in common with the modern lethal cousins is a similar structure of spikes on their outer surfaces. The "H" refers to the hemagglutinin protein. Scientists have found 16 different types of H proteins in the avian influenza family, identified by a succession of numbers such as H1, H2, up to H16.

Similarly, the "N" refers to a second type of surface protein, neuraminidase, of which there are nine varieties, and nine identifiers such as N1, N2, up to N9.

Flu virus names, resembling license plates, are therefore mixtures of H's, N's and numbers -- such as H5N1, H7N3, H9N2, or H7N7 -- that tell scientists what kinds of proteins appear on the outer surface of each virus.

One of the great mysteries in flu research is to find out what subtle changes can turn a relatively harmless H5 strain into a killer. It could involve mutation on the protein itself, proteins within the core of the virus, or a combination of factors.

Halvorson said that the H5N1 strains found in Minnesota may bear some resemblance to the dreaded strain on their outer surface, but are almost certainly different in other respects. Biologists have noted that avian flus in Asia are different from those in the United States, suggesting that global transfer of bird flu genes is rare.

The good news for poultry farmers in America is that even low pathogenic strains seldom infect their birds. "Over 99 percent of our flocks are free of any influenza virus,'' Halvorson said.


A sampling of avian influenza viruses

H9N2

Hong Kong, 2003**

H5N1

Hong Kong 1997*

H5N2

Pennsylvania, 1983

H7N2

Virginia, 2002

H5N8

Ireland, 1983

H7N4

Australia, 1997

*The feared bird flu spreading from Asia to Europe that has killed more than 60 people.

**A mild bird flu that has also sickened a small number of people but could become a pandemic strain.

What's in a virus name

Flu virus names are based on the types of hemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins on the viral surface. There are 144 possible varieties of bird flu. Here are 10 examples of avian flu outbreaks since 1966.

H5N9: Hemagglutinin protein (16 variations), Neuraminidase protein (9 variations)

Source: Chronicle research

E-mail Sabin Russell at srussell@sfchronicle.com.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote endman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2006 at 12:51pm
All this information and disinformation the story is very simple
The strain is “MILD” and this all you need to know OK.
The Government will announce the Day and Time of Pandemic start.
No more news on what type of flu strain, or how lethal it is or WHO checked the results.
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News

Nature
Published online: 10 May 2006; Corrected online: 11 May 2006 | doi:10.1038/441139a

State's flu response raises concern

Official alerts play down possible H5 strain found in New Jersey.

Jacqueline Ruttimann

Just hours earlier, crowds had thronged past rows of squawking chickens, ducks and geese at a live-bird market in Camden County, New Jersey. But late last month, inspectors shut down the bustling market, ordering its complete disinfection after discovering an H5 avian influenza virus.

In the end, the virus turned out to be a strain that was not very harmful, but the event sheds light on what might happen if H5N1 is detected in the United States.

The country has weathered three major outbreaks of highly pathogenic bird flu before (see 'Past US outbreaks'). 'Low-pathogenic' bird flu, which kills few infected birds, occurs far more regularly. In the latest case, New Jersey's agriculture department made a public announcement about the discovery of an avian-flu strain — but it left out salient details.

The announcement on 28 April did not mention when or specifically where the infection was detected, saying only that preliminary tests had marked it as negative for the neuraminidase protein N1. The statement did not mention the haemagglutinin protein; Nature learned later that the state had a faint positive for H5, which can occur in both high- and low-pathogenic strains. The first samples were tested on 21 April.


Discovery of avian flu led to the closure of a New Jersey live-poultry market.

AP PHOTO/J. SZYMASZEK

Later confirmatory tests by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) laboratory in Ames, Iowa, failed because technicians there could not grow the virus. In the meantime, other birds in the market had been killed and disposed of. The market was later reopened.

If a low-pathogenic strain of bird flu is discovered, then individual states, not the federal government, are responsible for alerting the public — and officials say this all went as planned. "The timeline was exactly as it should be," claims Andrea Morgan, veterinary administrator for the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. "The response that New Jersey launched was appropriate."

But it was misleading, critics argue. Jody Lanard, a risk-communication specialist based in Princeton, New Jersey, has worked as a senior adviser in pandemic influenza communication to the World Health Organization. She notes that the state's two press releases omitted the fact that the strain was H5, focusing instead on the fact that it was not N1.


 

 

http://www.nature.com/news/2006/060508/full/441139a.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 12 2006 at 5:46pm
Thanks Lutosh...
 
So in reality... they botched the tests and we will never know if it was low path or high path H5.
 
Or that's the story and they are sticking to it!
 
This part was missing on the above link:
 
But it was misleading, critics argue. Jody Lanard, a risk-communication specialist based in Princeton, New Jersey, has worked as a senior adviser in pandemic influenza communication to the World Health Organization. She notes that the state's two press releases omitted the fact that the strain was H5, focusing instead on the fact that it was not N1.
 
"They are afraid the public will hear H5 and go nuts — a case of official panic about panic," she says. "If they really think the public is that fragile, they might be tempted to hold back lots of preliminary information, and delay issuing material when it really matters."

Karen Eggert, a spokeswoman for the USDA, says the department is still working out how and when it would alert the public to outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains such as H5N1. In the interests of openness, officials are considering announcing it immediately after the first confirmatory molecular tests."
 
 
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