I just got this in through google and it is the best news repot on avain flu I have seen...

Bird flu nightmare needs wake-up call

AL AVLICINO

YEARS ago when I first started studying the avian influenza virus H5N1, it seemed highly unlikely that it would ever develop into pandemic status. I believed it might eventually trigger a conventional bout of flu, but certainly nothing to the degree of its H1N1 ancestor, the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 50 to 100 million people.

I have followed this virus in its inexorable march towards a pandemic, seen how it kept surprising the experts by picking up more and more human-infectious traits, until now there is virtually no doubt that there will be a worldwide avian flu pandemic and that H5N1 will be responsible for it.

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We have all heard the projections from avian influenza experts like Dr Michael Osterholm that in a single flu season as many as 360 million people could die. That figure is unimaginable. It's the total number of dead from the Boxing Day Tsunami every two hours, or a fully loaded 747 crashing every 13 seconds, around the clock for months on end. Three million dead in the UK alone or the equivalent of six Edinburghs.

The global integrated economy cannot survive a pandemic of this magnitude. Absenteeism rates of upwards of 75 per cent caused by illness and panic would cripple food distribution, utility access and virtually all other commerce. The bleak vision of surviving on canned food and bottled water in cold, dark homes, fearful of stepping outdoors for months on end, could happen right here in Scotland and around the world.

Do not make the error of assuming this cannot happen here. Migratory birds from Western China brought H5N1 to Turkey in early October where it lay undetected until people started dying a couple of weeks ago. Those migratory patterns continue into North Africa and Western Europe. When will H5N1 arrive in Scotland? Judging by the Turkish model, it may already be here. Let's not even consider what can happen when an infected individual arrives at Edinburgh Airport.

The 1918 pandemic started in an Army barracks in Kansas. Within one week the virus was present in all 48 contiguous United States in an era where the only modes of transport were trains and horses. The spread of this virus in the jet age is unimaginable. There likely would not be a corner of the Earth where this modern plague would not be present within weeks, maybe days.

The virus needs to pick up another trait or two to become as easily transmitted between humans as a common cold. That could happen at any time or it may already have begun.

Developing a vaccine against H5N1 is like targeting a clay pigeon. You have to shoot ahead of the target to allow the bullet and clay to intersect. Unfortunately H5N1 is a pigeon that does random, sudden 90 degree turns. It is the ultimate moving target. The time to develop and manufacture a global vaccine is six to eight months. By that time, the avian flu virus will likely have mutated into a form that is immune to the vaccine.

Current flu vaccines have no effect on H5N1, and although it is recommended that everyone be vaccinated, we should be clear in the knowledge that should a pandemic start, there is no protection from current vaccines or certainly from antiviral drugs. The antivirals of choice right now are Roche's Tamiflu and Glaxo's Relenza. The UK has ordered more than £200 million of Tamiflu, believing that it could help fend off the pandemic. Unfortunately, Tamiflu is fairly useless as an avian flu pandemic fighter.

In a recent Asian study Tamiflu was proven as ineffective as sugar pills against some H5N1 strains. The best use for these drugs is as a preventative, taking at least two doses per day from the moment the first virus arrives in your area and throughout all the months of the flu wave.

To provide everyone in the world with this albeit minor preventative measure would require, in a conservative calculation, 650 billion pills or the equivalent to the total weight of the Queen Elizabeth II fully loaded with passengers and cargo just in pure Tamiflu! All we have to do is write a cheque to Roche for one trillion pounds. And it still wouldn't stop the pandemic.

Thorough hygiene and other common-sense precautions are the only ways to blunt the impact of this pandemic. Raw poultry must be considered as a biohazard. Surfaces and clothing must be disinfected with bleach. It's time to rediscover the "disinfect everything" policy of the NHS matrons of the 1950s.

H5N1 could surprise us all and evolve into a squirrel or koala virus, sparing humanity. However, the chances of that occurring are next to zero. The world is fully unprepared. The onus must shift from wasting billions on "magic bullet" drugs that don't work to preparation and survivability.

• Al Avlicino is the author of Beat the Flu: How to Stay Healthy Through the Coming Bird Flu Pandemic, published by Fusion Press, priced £9.99

http://news.scotsman.com/opinion.cfm?id=14262200I read this and this is the first i have seen of any truth...

I wonder when people are going to wake up and take this seriously

seems like no one wants to hear it and the virus just keeps on keeping on!

Meewee

Tired,

Your point is valid and well stated as a reminder to us all.  BUT I have to ask: Are you a bettin' woman?

add to that gamble that Saudi Arabia has just found 5 flcons that have tested positive..and that Iraq, Iran or Syria have had nothing to say...the big gapping hole in the bottom of the map...

mmm......now I lay me down to sleep ...I pray.....

yea thought I walk thru the valley  of the shadow of death....

Dang I,ll get in pooh for this: the parable of the weeds

I'm a Christian too, and plagues are going to continue to happen and get worse...fear has to cease to a trust in God...so PRAY we must!  Keep praying for protection over your family and protection that the virus will not enter your surroundings even as you prepare for it.  I thought I'd have time to get into my new house but NOPE - it's spreading quick.  I just read the confirmed death in Iraq was a 15 yr old girl who hated the birds the family had and she never even went near them.  Her mom is saying it can not be bird flu...because the experts are reporting you HAVE to come into direct contact to get the virus...HUH???  Well how did she get it if she didn't have direct contact???  What about the lady in China who died and had no contact?  She worked in a dried foods store.  Looks like this may already be able to spread via air. 

People aren't panicing - I was at Costco yesterday and it was the slowest I've seen yet.  Just wait, it'll be pure panic and mayhem because people believe America is immune...I just don't get it. 

Left Field wrote: You won't have bf in Iraq, Iran, Israel, none of the middle east countries will honestly report it.  What ever happened to the sick Israel Soldiers?  Do you think the USA will want to report that they have a problem in Iraq?  During WW1, the flu was raging in the US camps and still the men were shipped to Europe, think of all who died on the way over, was there ever a count of how many dead were taken off the ships?  Was the flu in Germany before the americans came?  Did the flu end the war, will it end the war in Iraq?  Will we have a pandamic, well we all know the answer to that, Only Time Will Tell.

Quote from the Great Influenza Barry

The men leaving Grant on that train were jammed into cars with little room to move about....they moved deliberately across 950 miles of the country...When the train arrived over 700 -- one-quarter of all the troops on the train were taken directly to the base hospital... in total two thousand of the 3,108 troops would be hospitalized with influenza...

Hey Jim - Welcome to the board!  You're going to love the "End of Days" topic in the off topic forum LOL.   

It's right here.

http://www.superflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=892&PN=1

I didn't mean for you to go to another forum to discuss it.  I wanted to let you know about  the other topic because I thought it might interest you guys.  These threads always take turns.  That's what keeps things  interesting lol.   Again, feel free to discuss any subject on any thread.   I personally enjoy watching these discussions.

spatchcock come on bsck and welcomr to the forum to the both of you I too look forward to your posts!

Meewee

Yeah now is the thime to prep!!

Meewee( AuntiE M!)

Honey do what you have to do now because I don't want to be out there hollerin for ya in the tornado!

Summary

Influenza A (H5N1) is an influenza A virus subtype that occurs mainly in birds, is highly contagious among birds, and can be deadly to them. Outbreaks of H5N1 among poultry are ongoing in Asia and parts of Europe. While H5N1 does not usually infect people, human cases of H5N1 infection associated with these outbreaks have been reported in Asia and Europe. Most of these cases have occurred from direct or close contact with infected poultry or contaminated surfaces; however, a few rare cases of human-to-human spread of H5N1 virus have occurred, though transmission has not continued beyond one person.

Nonetheless, because all influenza viruses have the ability to change, scientists are concerned that H5N1 virus one day could be able to infect humans and spread easily from one person to another. Because these viruses do not commonly infect humans, there is little or no immune protection against them in the human population and an influenza pandemic (worldwide outbreak of disease) could begin. Experts from around the world are watching the H5N1 situation in Asia and Europe very closely and are preparing for the possibility that the virus may begin to spread more easily from person to person.

Human H5N1 Cases

During August to October 2004, sporadic human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) were reported in Vietnam and Thailand. Since December 2004, a resurgence of poultry outbreaks and human cases has been reported in Vietnam. On February 2, 2005, the first of four human cases of H5N1 infection from Cambodia was reported. On July 21, 2005, the first human case of H5N1 in Indonesia was reported. Indonesia has continued to report human cases from August 2005 through January 2006. Thailand reported new human cases of H5N1 in October, November, and December 2005, and Vietnam reported new human cases in November 2005. China reported the country’s first confirmed human cases in November 2005 and has continued to report human cases in December 2005 and January 2006. Turkey reported the country’s first confirmed human cases on January 5, 2006 and has continued to report human cases.

Animal H5N1 Cases

Beginning in late June 2004, new outbreaks of lethal avian influenza A (H5N1) infection among poultry were reported by several countries in Asia: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Since May 2005, outbreaks of H5N1 disease have been reported among poultry in China, Kazakhstan, Romania, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. China, Croatia, Mongolia, and Romania also have reported outbreaks of H5N1 in wild, migratory birds since May 2005. Hong Kong (SARPRC) reported one dead wild bird in January 2006. For additional information about H5N1 and other avian influenza outbreaks among animals, visit the World Organization for Animal Health Web site.

Assessment of Current Situation

The avian influenza A (H5N1) epizootic (animal outbreak) in Asia and parts of Europe is not expected to diminish significantly in the short term. It is likely that H5N1 infection among birds has become endemic in certain areas and that human infections resulting from direct contact with infected poultry will continue to occur. So far, the spread of H5N1 virus from person-to-person has been rare and has not continued beyond one person. No evidence for genetic reassortment between human and avian influenza A virus genes has been found; however, the epizootic in Asia continues to pose an important public health threat.

There is little pre-existing natural immunity to H5N1 infection in the human population. If these H5N1 viruses gain the ability for efficient and sustained transmission among humans, an influenza pandemic could result, with potentially high rates of illness and death. In addition, genetic sequencing of influenza A (H5N1) viruses from human cases in Vietnam and Thailand shows resistance to the antiviral medications amantadine and rimantadine, two of the medications commonly used for treatment of influenza. This would leave two remaining antiviral medications (oseltamivir and zanamivir) that should still be effective against currently circulating strains of H5N1 virus. Efforts to produce vaccine candidates that would be effective against avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses are under way. However, it will likely require many months before such vaccines could be mass produced and made widely available.

Research suggests that currently circulating strains of H5N1 viruses are becoming more capable of causing disease (pathogenic) in mammals than were earlier H5N1 viruses. One study found that ducks infected with H5N1 virus are now shedding more virus for longer periods without showing symptoms of illness. This finding has implications for the role of ducks in transmitting disease to other birds and possibly to humans as well. Additionally, other findings have documented H5N1 infection among pigs in China and H5N1 infection in felines (experimental infection in housecats in the Netherlands and isolation of H5N1 viruses in tigers and leopards in Thailand).

Notable findings of epidemiologic investigations of human H5N1 cases in Vietnam during 2005 have suggested transmission of H5N1 viruses to at least two persons through consumption of uncooked duck blood. One possible instance of limited person-to-person transmission of H5N1 virus in Thailand has been reported. This possibility is being further investigated in other clusters of cases in Vietnam and Indonesia.

Bird Import Ban

There is currently a ban on the importation of birds and bird products from H5N1-affected countries. The regulation states that no person may import or attempt to import any birds (Class Aves), whether dead or alive, or any products derived from birds (including hatching eggs), from the following countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Peoples' Republic of China, Romania, Russia, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, and Vietnam (current as of December 29, 2005).

Travel

Updated Information for Travelers about Avian Influenza A(H5N1) is available at the CDC Travelers’ Health Web site. Also see Guidelines and Recommendations - Interim Guidance about Avian Influenza A (H5N1) for U.S. Citizens Living Abroad.

CDC Response

Domestic Activities

• In May 2005, CDC joined a new, inter-agency National Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Task Force organized by the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services. This task force is developing and refining preparedness efforts with international, state, local, and private organizational partners to help ensure the most effective response possible when the next influenza pandemic occurs. For more information about the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan of the U.S. Health and Human Services Department and other aspects of this coordinated federal initiative, please visit www.pandemicflu.gov.
• In February 2004, CDC issued recommendations for enhanced domestic surveillance of avian influenza A (H5N1). Following the reports of human deaths in Vietnam in August 2004 and additional human cases in the following months, CDC issued follow-up Health Alert Network (HAN) notices on August 12 and February 4, 2005, reiterating criteria for domestic surveillance, diagnostic evaluation, and infection control precautions for avian influenza A (H5N1). The HAN notice also detailed laboratory testing procedures for H5N1.
• CDC has collaborated with the Association of Public Health Laboratories to conduct training workshops for state laboratories on the use of molecular techniques to rapidly identify H5 viruses.
• CDC is working collaboratively with the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists and other partners to assist states with pandemic planning efforts.
• CDC is working with other agencies, such as the Department of Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs, on antiviral stockpile issues.

International Activities

• CDC is one of four WHO Collaborating Centers and in this capacity provides ongoing support for the global WHO surveillance network, laboratory testing, training, and other actions.
• CDC has worked collaboratively with WHO to conduct investigations of human H5N1 infections in China , Indonesia , Thailand , Vietnam , and Turkey and to provide laboratory diagnostic and training assistance.
• CDC has performed laboratory testing of H5N1 viruses from Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia.
• CDC is implementing a multi-million dollar initiative to improve influenza surveillance in Asia.
• CDC has led or taken part in 9 training sessions to enhance local capacities in Asia to conduct surveillance for possible human cases of H5 and to detect avian influenza A H5 viruses using laboratory techniques.
• CDC has developed and distributed a reagent kit for the detection of the currently circulating influenza A H5 viruses.
• CDC has worked with other international and national agencies in Asia to develop a training course for rapid response teams that will be used to help prepare the region to respond to outbreaks when they occur.

CDC is monitoring the situation closely, along with WHO and other international partners. In addition, CDC continues to work collaboratively with WHO and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) on the development and testing of vaccine seed candidates for influenza A (H5N1).

NOTE: The World Health Organization (WHO) maintains situation updates and cumulative reports of human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1).