Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Get ready for an explosion in cases - Very Soon |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Posted: February 05 2016 at 6:50pm |
Just a heads up that early next week they will be probably announcing an explosion in cases across the U.S. Out of all the news being reported lately, there are dozens of pending test results. I have a feeling the CDC will be announcing numerous cases at once very very soon, which could lead to public anxiety and fear. The cases could be well over a hundred, or perhaps even in the hundreds. There is also a chance they may release information about bodily fluid transmission.
The U.S. is more of the CDC's jurisdiction rather than the WHO's I believe, so we could expect heavy CDC involvement and for them to take the lead on this. Anyway, fasten your seat belts because the ride is about to begin. Best of luck to all through this next adventure. Albert |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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^Thanks, boss! I agree, this one has some grim aspects to it.
Be safe, everyone.
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CRS, DrPH
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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The BBC continues to report the same number of test results from Brazil, so testing there seems slow/stopped. I read that in the USA there are only a few places that could test for Zika, so maybe there will not be an explosion of proved cases, if there is a bottleneck with testing.
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Please keep in mind that Zika virus tends to cause a very mild disease, unlike other Flavaviruses such as West Nile, which can cause fatalities.
The nasty feature of microcephaly in infected fetuses is what makes this one stand out. I'm not sure that the other Flaviviridae don't cause the same thing, except that WNV infections in humans are rather rare in the USA. Microcephaly may have been an ongoing feature of these viruses that we are only now noticing due to the large number of cases in Brazil. Another thing to consider is that it is not only pregnant women at risk. Women typically do not realize they are pregnant for the first few weeks, and it is during this developmental stages that most of the damage is done to a developing fetus from chemicals, radiation, and infectious agents. Therefore, women in their reproductive years who consider going to Brazil etc. should consider the ramifications if they become pregnant while on vacation or shortly after returning, when they may be harboring an active Zika infection. |
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CRS, DrPH
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DeepThinker
V.I.P. Member Joined: September 26 2015 Location: So. California Status: Offline Points: 3245 |
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From what I can see it is just like West Nile virus. Most with West Nile never have a serious illness. Only a tiny minority of exposures results in serious disease. Also just today I heard on the radio that they think there are fatalities associated with Zika. No, I don't think Zika is much different from those other viruses in its family. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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DT, I think you are on to something there. CRS, DrPH is our resident expert. If the knowledge is available, he has it, in full and in detail. However, there are LOTS of unknowns with Zika. Only now, with it spreading fast enough to have people worried, are some of its darker secrets coming to light.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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The only difference with this one is how it effects pregnant women, and the recent fatalities is a new development. 6 women in the U.S. are currently pregnant with Zika, so essentially a few babies lives are mostly likely over. It's just a really bad one if you're pregnant or starting a family.
If it's not transferred by bodily fluids and if sexual transmission is really rare, we would only be talking around 4,000 cases imported. If it can spread limited human transmission by bodily fluids and sex, then we have a whole new ballgame. There are currently 51 cases in the U.S. That sexual transmission case happened at around 20 cases. Not sure if that means 1 in 20 will transmit it. Too many unknowns. I think at best 100 pregnant women will be effected. If it can be spread by bodily fluids it will be in the thousands. We really need to see what happens. in the short term. Could be nothing much to worry about, or could be the extreme opposite. |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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Can you imagine how those 6 pregnant women are feeling right now? This will be a nightmare for them. I had to wait a week for some test results after a 20 week amnio for a very nasty genetic condition with my second child and it was the worse week of my life. Thankfully my child was fine. I wouldn't wish it on anyone. And I only had to wait a week.
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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