Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
FORMING GROUPS TO ENHANCE SURVIVAL ODDS |
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cccc
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 28 2006 Status: Offline Points: 46 |
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Posted: January 31 2006 at 6:45am |
Is it too late for this topic? Is anyone interested in forming groups to increase the chance of survival? As a single person, even with preps and meds, I do not think that the chances of survival are good in my nice CA burb with looters needing preps - groups of looters that will only be concerned with their own survival. One solo person who is normally very self-sufficient still must sleep, and even when awake cannot be protecting all sides of a dwelling at one time. What questions would this type of interview/discussion necessitate?
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This is something I am very interested in, being a single mom in SoCal. There is strength in numbers. |
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Dave
Valued Member Joined: January 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 27 |
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Strength in numbers is good; however, you have to be very careful of your inner circle once you decide to quarantine. Neighbors looking out for one and other is a great concept as long as there is some form of communication without making daily personal (close) contact. In general, I would feel confident that my neighbors intentions to help me, and mine to help them, are good. But I have a hard time making close personal contact with them after going into quarantine. I would definitely do what I could to help concerning the security aspect of everyday life, i.e. early warning and being an extra set of eyes. But close personal contact and socialization is a big negative. Being born and raised in Southern California (San Bernardino to be exact), I know what you're concerned about. Glad I'm not in your shoes! |
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What I write next is based on many years of personal experience.
Here is where most groups fail (in no particular order): 1) Unrealized expectations. Either these were not fully discussed, written down (important) and agreed upon, expectations are often unfilled, causing dissension, implosion and failure. 2) Lack of 'localness'. Forming a group from 'outsiders' is an almost certain recipe for disaster. The lack of local connections, customs, habits, expectations, and familiarity with all of the above, causes most 'formed groups' from people scattered far and wide to fail. 3) Lack of funding. A serious lack of planning, expectations and foresight, lack of initial startup costs, etc. 4) Habits and belief systems. Smokers, dogs, religion, politics, work ethics, even scheduling habits. Slackers, wannabe's, lazy and incompetent people should be avoided at all costs. 5) Relocation. This is a gigantic "biggie" which encompasses ALL of the above. Economic factors aside (which are monumental all by themselves) if resolved, still fails to account for the challenges and difficulties of relocation and the undue stress that this places upon ALL the participants. 6) Familiarity. The lack of communication, understanding, expectations, realizations, habits, hangups, hanger on's (extra family members, kids, troublesome friends, etc.) create extreme problems. 7) Impatience and lack of bonding. Most groups form in a hurry, based on a perceived need and almost always, a sense of urgency, which fails to address ALL of the above. Such groups are destined for disaster and failure. Groups are stronger then individuals, but you must carefully consider what you're asking for - and expecting. And what people say - and what they do are two entirely different things. Stress can produce the very worst and the very best in humans. You have to know that your fellow members won't crack under pressure. Most will. I strongly advise AGAINST forming a group from people that do not live close by that you cannot get to know personally, intimately and slowly. Time is against you right now to do this, but I still hold this opinion based on years of personal experience. If you are going to form a group, start with family. Then close friends. And close neighbors. Beyond that, forget it. It probably won't work. There are many different kinds of preparedness groups in the US, usually based around a common belief or perception. However, close examination will often reveal that the same belief is not enough. Nor is the same politics, religion or expectations. The human dynamics come into play when you put people together and you quickly find out just how compatible you really are. I could (and have) written an entire book on this subject, so I suggest you carefully consider what you're asking for. Groups must hold common values, morals, beliefs and have clear lines of communication, leadership and problem resolution. All that, plus all of the above. Be careful. I am not advising against it, but this is a Pandora's box and once opened, can be deadly. Your as well off, if not better, sticking with family, close neighbors and friends. These 'groups' already have the 'localness' requirement (essential), lines of communications, understanding of habits, belief systems, ethics and many other very important factors. These groups are far from perfect (no group is), but they have a better foundation upon which to build then putting together relative strangers. |
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meewee
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 595 |
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Well said S2S! I have found that just trying to build a business partnership! Meewee |
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God Bless us all!
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I just moved on Dec 2. My family and friends are not close enough. :(
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cccc
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 28 2006 Status: Offline Points: 46 |
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SA, I very much appreciate your post. The issues you raise are certainly critical to the success of the business at hand - the business of survival. I shall consider these issues carefully. No team is stronger than its weakest link. Those of us singles without family or good friends in the vicinity may have detected no neighbors who have prepped (therefore also mentally unprepared for the nightmare hell to come), or too pacifist to fire a gun at an aggressive looter (not committed to whatever it takes to survive). I shall continue to ponder this group issue - we have all been thrown into groups with strangers in various situations at camp, military, sports, college, business, new in town, etc - and made friends. I intend to keep on making new friends 5 years from now.
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I am too annoying to live with people and too independant to live with others . I would like to just establish some trust with my neighbours that we look after each others houses. But if Im prepped and their not it causes problems . i live on a street of house and would just like to organize a watch program but even that I can see so many problems. The early days will be tough I really hate the fact that people I care about not having food but you cant tell people now as they think your crazy but if they got it now it would mean the panic would begin. My family wont pre til it everybody they know are at that point it will be expensive. but I wont worry about their money I just hope its only expensive not imposible. ok I babbing now |
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I'm am certainly not against forming groups - in fact, I think they are essential. It's the 'how' they are formed that is often overlooked and what it means. I'd like to gently comment that the examples of camp, military, sports, college, business, etc., all have the same characteristic - and that is the support structure that exists within and without these 'organizations'. Take away that support structure, all of that 'outside help' that all of these organizations rely upon and you have a sure fire recipe for disaster. Which is in fact, exactly what happens when such organizations are stressed beyond their intended capacitity and expectations. This scenario is extremely likely in our future. Human relationships are built upon trust, communication, understanding and needs. This last point is almost always overlooked. A lot of people work because of needs, put up with a tyrant boss or crappy working hours based on this fact alone. Given the choice, they'd be doing something else. They are in fact, working for 'survival' with a tremendous 'outside support system' in place. Take away that outside support system (grocery stores, gas stations, doctors, cars, law enforcement, potentially all of it) and they won't be showing up for work or anything else. In fact, who and what they really are will reveal itself rather quickly. This is why 'knowing' your support group intimately is going to be so important - people that can truly be relied upon and won't leave you in a lurch or turn against you. I cannot emphasize this enough. In crisis, the issue of needs (survival) becomes of paramount importance and the concept of 'self' asserts itself in myriad ways. The lack of a supporting network will really change people and I can pretty much state with assurance - you won't like it. Survival is personal warfare, not in the sense of 'attack and destroy', but in the sense that all the rules are thrown out . All of them. We saw this with 500 law enforcement officers quitting during the Katrina disaster. It just didn't matter anymore when they're world was totally destroyed. We saw looters, assassinations, rapes, murders and probably much more. And that was in a regional disaster, actually fairly localized compared to what could occur on a global scale now. I only want to make the point that crisis is a time of turning, a time of revealing what character is in people and whether or not you can trust them with your life, or if they will be selfish and sacrifice you because of their needs. It can a very innocous and innocent request that can get you killed. What happens when you're neighbor comes over? Let's just say that a pandemic outbreak has hit the States, everybody everywhere is quarantined and ordered to stay home. But your neighbor has needs and he comes over. What do you do? If he's clueless, he won't realize the danger he represents, just knocking on your door, asking for something to eat. Or water. Or medicine. Or toilet paper. Innoccuous request, but under pandemic, deadly. You need people who are paying attention and understand their 'role' and 'responsibility', otherwise, you risk disaster. So, our imaginary clueless neighbor, decides he doesn't like you ignorning him and figures he'll just help himself, smashing through a window and trying to enter your house to find whatever it was he needed. Suddenly, your isolation and quarantine is broken and you're all in danger. You've got a big problem - brought upon you against your best desires. You're going to have to handle it. This is why trust is so important. This tiny example reveals that you have to 'know' your neighbors, they can't be putting you (and then themselves) at extreme risk. None of this applies to the same degree when there is an 'outside support' structure in place. Your neighbor can simply go knock on another door, walk to the store, call for help, something, anything. He's got other places to turn to. And so do you, if it happens to be you that needs something or help. But take that all away, take away all forms of social organizations and agreements, all available goods and distribution points, all means of safe travel, potentially everything, and the social dynamics change radically. |
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cccc
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 28 2006 Status: Offline Points: 46 |
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Your generosity in communicating this area of your expertise is a great gift.
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Pebbles
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 08 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 176 |
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Our family will be staying together at another home for as long as it takes to get through this together. Now, I'm having second thoughts. I'm worried about leaving our house because it will most likely be broken into. I don't want to lose our valuables because we will need to sell them after this is over. However, we do not have the time or money to start preparing to stay home at this point. I thought about renting a storage unit, but the looters will go there also. Any suggestions? |
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why would you leave your house(and welcome pebbles)..who would you sell your valuables to? and prepping on the cheap is very easy..start out with a small amount at a time..even if you where to leave your house..start by doing up BOB bags(bug out bags)..baby steps as we all have had to do... |
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janetn
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 333 |
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Know thy neighbor. Now is the time to get to know your neighbors. An established relationship now may come in handy later. Poeple tend to want to form in groups. Knowing whos who now will be invalueable later |
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Pebbles
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 08 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 176 |
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Muskrat, thanks for the welcome. We are leaving our house and going to another family member's home for the same reason I left our home and temporarily moved into that same house for a few months when our Mother was dying. We are a very close family and we want to be together. Some of us have certain things, such as weapons, some don't, so we are pooling our resources, which makes it much easier and cheaper for all of us. I don't know what I was thinking about selling valuables later. It was late, I hadn't had much sleep, yada, yada, yada. Panic over having money later, I guess. We have not only been preparing for bird flu, but another possible terrorist attack as well. I've cleared my head since then and am not going to worry about it. My attitude is que sera sera.
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Is it too late for this topic? Is anyone interested in
forming groups to increase the chance of survival? ---------------- I can't address group survival. But if you do form a group, make sure to have N95 "surgical masks". A virus laden evil-doer can kill as easily with a cough as he can with a gun. There are only 2 plants making them in North America and they are running flat out. They have nor surge capacity. Buy some while you still can. It's good piece of mine. The mask stops 95% of the viruses. Actually they stop 95% of all water droplets that the virus hitches a ride on. If you have extra, you can barter them. The mask will allow you to go out in public with relative safety if fitted properly, it worked well for the SARS nurses in Hong Kong. Those that wore masks and washed their hands never caught it. Take Zinc lozenges for the 5% that might get through, they may cut down on viral replication. Good Luck Edited by Rick |
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Trigger
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 77 |
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I'm afraid of my husband gong to the garage because he has to go outside to get there. How do I protect us? What do I have to do to make him safe to return to the house?
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Trigger
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Pebbles
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 08 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 176 |
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Rick, regarding the masks, what is surge capacity?
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Thomas Angel
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 622 |
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Any group or structure should be militarized with a set SOP, a clear Chain of Command and leadership that has experience, courage and vision. What they won't be are "democracies". Democratic processes get in the way of success in situations like this. They can certainly return at some future point in time, when it's clear and this thing has run it's course, but in the short term there can be no arguements, no differences of opinions, no weaknesses tolerated. |
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I LIKE SCARY RIDES
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MissRX
Valued Member Joined: February 03 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 80 |
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Im also in So. Cal burbs. =] |
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"The more you sweat in peace, the less you bleed in war"
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Trigger, I noticed you hadn't received an answer about your hubby going to the garage.
Unless he stumbles over an infected person on his way out the door, he will probably be fine. You need to be within 10 to 20 feet of someone with the infection to catch it. Have him leave his shoes outside if you are worried about him tracking any bird feces indoors. |
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Thomas Angel
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 622 |
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And It's off to the races again... Christ, I'm not going anywhere for months after this thing dies off without full bio-gear. |
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I LIKE SCARY RIDES
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maryk
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 25 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 168 |
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I have a big falmily, 7 in my house, 40 others within 100 miles, 30 of those winin 10 miles, and lots of people whom i work with that i could call friends. I tried to convince everyone to start preparing. and i get mostly the " your parrioned" treatment. I decided a week ago to stop saying anything to people who werent preparing. i wont have enough to go around if everyone shows up at my door. and if they know where you live, and they know you were making preps for this, they will come when they get hungery. |
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Brute_Force
Valued Member Joined: March 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 6 |
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Oh boy, this worries me more than the bird flu itself. While strength in groups is a definite plus, and great to ward off looters, there´s always the issue of leadership and weak links. Also, we all have idiots in our families, you know who they are, so remember, not only are you going to become the Rambo/Linda Hamilton of your household, but you are also going to become the shrink, the priest, the leader. Some people will have a hard time following orders and will make rushed, stupid decisions based on ¨feelings¨. Sometimes children can also add pressure and stress when they are scared of confused. Survival is in the brain, not the heart. Make sure you don´t let anything overwhealm you so you can make sound decisions for your family and friends. This is VITAL for large groups,and since most will rely on the leaders for emotional support, you should try your best to be brave and remain calm so that your group can stay d anstrong focused at all times. If all else fails use brute force |
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The one who says it can´t be done should not bother the one doing it.
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Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
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welcome to the boards brute_force, and yes you do have some very good points in your posts.
Have any questions please feel free to ask |
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I look at the stars and wonder what it would be like to touch them.
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Brute_force...
If all else fails use brute force nice tie in with the handle!! I appreciate the wit!!! |
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Thomas Angel
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 622 |
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Come what may, never ever second guess yourself if you are forced to make a life and death decision for the members of your group vs one individual. With ultimate Leadership comes ultimate responsiblity, not just for personal decisions but the for welfare of those you are leading. If you are uable to make a decision based soley on the survival of the group you are in then follow someone who can. |
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I LIKE SCARY RIDES
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Brute_Force
Valued Member Joined: March 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 6 |
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Perhaps Judge and Executioner also. There are going to be a few "snap judgements" to make as this thing falls into our laps and progresses. Come what may, never ever second guess yourself if you are forced to make a life and death decision for the members of your group vs one individual. With ultimate Leadership comes ultimate responsiblity, not just for personal decisions but the for welfare of those you are leading. If you are uable to make a decision based soley on the survival of the group you are in then follow someone who can. ------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------- Excellent point Thomas! |
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The one who says it can´t be done should not bother the one doing it.
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JaxMax
Adviser Group Joined: March 01 2006 Status: Offline Points: 801 |
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During several hurricanes we had some simulation of what may happen with the electricity out in an urban environment.
1. Caffeine- you will need some source of caffeine to stand your watch at night. Coffee or pills. Soldiers in Iraq have written of falling asleep on patrol. You need your best person from 1am till 4am- this is very hard to stay awake especially around 3am.
2. Backlight- Coleman makes a great battery powered REMOTE controlled flourescent lamp. This saved me from killing an intruder. I had the lantern outside the house. All the kids were asleep.I heard the noise near the front window, and pressed the remote. The lantern lit up, the burglar ran away before I had to shoot him. He had something in his hand, but I couldn't see if it was a gun, but I was going to shoot him.
3. As far as groups, we had informal associations with neighbors, but everyone stayed in their own home. I did lend a very scared anti-gun single female a shotgun on night 2.We signalled using spot lights.
Be careful that you are not merely moving your problems under 1 roof.
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He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible
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LOL! She's not antigun anymore is she?
I've got six guys that actively work together. We even refer to ourselves as a team. With your team you should go through actions that will allow you to be able to predict what they're going to do without actually having to say it.
If you allow too many people into your team you're going to have a problem with there being too many people to coordinate, especially if some of the people you allow in are untrained, or haven't worked with the team in the past regularly.
The worst kind of people are going to be those that say they can do something they can't. In the course of the BF insanity unfolding we may all be put into the position of having to take the life of another. If someone says they can do it and then not be able to they'll put everyone in peril.
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JaxMax
Adviser Group Joined: March 01 2006 Status: Offline Points: 801 |
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Turboguy-
No, she saw the light and owns her own gun now.I saw her at the gun range.
I believe the best model for Americans is the the old western wagon train. Each family mainitained self sufficiency, maintained their own supplies, maintained family privacy and had a clearly defined chain of command within the family.The wagon train united primarly for self defense and security. Since each family maintained their own supplies independently you avoided arguments over consumption and purchase.
This type of group will arise either planned or spontaneuosly after societal breakdown. I have seen it on a small scale after hurricanes.
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He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible
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"The strength of the wolf is in the pack. The strength of the pack is in the wolf." - Rudyard Kipling
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lyrian
Experienced Member Joined: June 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 11 |
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Very well thought out. I was associated somewhat with Y2k groups in Montana and Idaho in the late 90's. And all I observed was 'Donner Party' mentality. Generally, people join these groups at the last minute looking for a hand-out.
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PATB
Valued Member Joined: July 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 152 |
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Refresh Rudyard Kipling "Female of the Species" and know the female will step upfront to protect the young...always. It will reinforce our protection
of young at any cost.
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Pat
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I would like to form a group in central Georgia. I have at least a year
supply of food, for me. Problem is I live alone. But I have guns and plenty of ammo as well as plenty of non powered tools like axes, hatchets, saws, etc. My trade off would be an extra set of hands for work around a farm, and added security against attackers, etc. Any farms out there ?? Temporary, of course, at least until the danger passes. Then its back to my house - if it is still there. What happened to the state sections ????? |
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icDawn
Valued Member Joined: August 27 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1 |
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HI All !!!! How about forming a group in the absolutely gorgeous, secure N. GA MOUNTAINS???? Mild climate year-round (easy to heat, short winters, and NO air conditioning needed!), pure spring water everywhere, rich pasture and garden, abundant woods, trout pond, very private and easy to defend (in a dead-end horseshoe-valley). And yes, I DO think it's paradise! I have a farm in the N.GA mountains (15 miles from the beginning of the Appalachian Trail!) that I designed with all the usual modern amenities, but additionally I designed the large lodge as a passive solar with back-up gravity spring water, wood heat, and other self-sufficient goodies. Would easily accomodate a number of people with space for privacy, plus a barn, trout pond, rich pasture, woods, creek... The lodge is VERY large ... about 4000sf, with about 2800sf finished. The terrace level is about 70% complete...just never needed any more finished area...yet. I'm in much the same situation as you, Diode: Single, very well-prepped for more than a year ... Love living alone, but I would like to get through this with kindred souls ... BUT I also take seriously the caveats discussed in this forum. Serious stuff... I've been really torn about which way to go, but thanks for speaking up ... encouraged me to open up to this idea. Here's another twist: I'm not living there now. I moved to another small farm in NC after my divorce (just for a fresh start) and had planned to sell my GA farm a couple of years ago. But then I found out about the bird flu and took it off the market ... I was torn (and still am) as to whether to move back there (since it is truely a pandemic-PERFECT place to live!!!) or to continue building my new farm here, where I had committed time and money and established new friends. ARGGGGGHHH!!!! Soooooo .... ??????? Now what??? Anyone interested in the possibilities for the GA farm ... with or without me (I still might sell it and stay here; I HAVE to sell one of the fast!) ... or how about joining up on the smaller farm here in the Raleigh area??? Or .... or ... I feel that deerintheheadlights feeling coming on !!! Strange situation to be well-prepped to hole-up for a couple of years ... but still so unsettled about where to do the "holing." I'd love to hear from others who are still feeling uncertain about where they'll sequester for the duration ...and after... and how you're dealing with the "location situation." Dawn |
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diego
Valued Member Location: Michigan Joined: June 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 121 |
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beware of Charley and his family.
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ShaRenKa
Valued Member Joined: May 17 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 301 |
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With just my husband and myself and 2 other adults, I feel we need many more in our 2 story home to "feel safe". My grown children all live around the US, and have already said they won't make it here if it all blows;( (one is in the Marines) We have ample food and water ect, but without the numbers to protect what we have here, what good is it? I figured they would all be home with their spouses, but they want to protect their own homes ect. So I've gone from 10 to 4. Anyone out there from around North Syracuse NY? lol Looks like I gotta scout a bit here.
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Sha Ren Ka
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PATB
Valued Member Joined: July 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 152 |
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RE: late preping...because of this forum we will have the advantage of prior knowledge. How about a credit card set aside to purchase some items on time and on minimum pmts? If it does not happen it won't break you, if it comes to pass run out that door and buy, buy , buy the top priorities. Credit will not matter during the pandemic right? I am sure the people on the forum can give you direction.
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Pat
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johngardner1
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It isn't too far to think that beyond a certain point in time during the pandemic that stores will only accept cash - for those that are even open. However, given news blackout, nobody, including those who run the stores, will see pandemic occuring and your credit and debit cards should still function. With a bit of luck, everyone here on Avian Flu Talk will get advanced notice of pandemic so we can finish our preps. Later, it might happen we have to break into grocery stores to get supplies. I've never tried to break the plate glass at a grocery store, maybe a hammer would work, I don't own a sledgehammer - though it would make an excellent weapon. As far as forming groups, it's been covered here before. I live in low income housing and we actually have a community room and a building council. All the old ladies run it. So if I'm to encounter and/or join a group, it will start in the apartment building. Normally I don't consider neighbors to be exceptionally valuable given they're going to want my preps, but when it comes time to get more preps, it's obviously great to have backup instead of going alone to the store. Women here need to take extra precautions, cuz there may be rape gangs. Don't go out alone unless you have no one to rely on, and be prepared to fight for your life. |
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I am not a prophet
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