Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
"Vaccine a Red Herring... insufficient" |
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Posted: February 07 2006 at 6:09pm |
02/08/2006 -- 11:34(GMT+7)
Single vaccine against bird flu insufficient, say US scientists Hong Kong (VNA) - Scientists in the United States have suggested that a single vaccine against the deadly H5N1 virus would be insufficient as they have discovered four different genotypes of the lethal bird flu virus. The scientists have studied 13,115 waste specimens from migratory birds in Hong Kong and Poyang Lake in China's southeastern province of Jiangxi, the South China Morning Post reported on February 7. The paper said that the scientists found four genotypes of the H5N1 virus detected from a goose virus in 1996 in the southern province of Guangdong. Their report, published on February 7 in the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, concludes that ''the development of a single vaccine is a red herring and bird flu must be controlled at its source,'' according to the daily.--Enditem http://www.vnanet.vn/NewsA.asp? LANGUAGE_ID=2&CATEGORY_ID=34&NEWS_ID=185321] http:// www.vnanet.vn/NewsA.asp?LANGUAGE_ID=2&CATEGORY_ID=34& NEWS_ID=185321 * Controlling it at it's source is next to impossible at the current moment. Edited by Rick |
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More Complex Than Thought
“While tracking poultry around Southeast Asia, Webster and his team found that different geographical locales feature distinct sublineages of the disease. They have identified at least four branches so far. "This is the first clear indication that the H5N1 situation is more complicated than we think," said Hon Ip, diagnostic virologist at the U.S. Geological Survey's National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wisconsin In addition to their diversity findings, the team detected the virus among apparently healthy birds in areas where deadly flu outbreaks have not appeared.This is an especially troubling development, Webster notes. "Don't worry about the birds that died, it's those that are alive and apparently healthy and hosting this virus [that are of greatest concern>," he said.Authorities must fight the temptation to conclude that there is no bird flu problem among populations that appear healthy, he said. "When the birds appear healthy but they are carrying this virus, then you've got a serious problem," he said. * Webster is a world class virus hunter - he raised the original alarm years ago. 2006/02/0207_060207_ bird_flu.html">http:// news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/02/0207_060207_ bird_flu.html Edited by Rick |
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stardust
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 21 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 224 |
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With the recent stories, I am now starting to get confused about what's going on with the different scenerios that are popping up. It sounds like with all of this activity, it's turning into mayhem. And it makes me think that a pandemic truly is inevitable. Keep on prepping.... |
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"Prepping is Power"!
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If they have a vaccine for H5N1 (in whatever guise) it would afford a certain amount of protection. Much better than NO protection and certainly less than optimal, but I would gladly welcome ANY leg up on this monster that they could provide. It is hoped that a non-specific H5N1 vaccine would be enough to protect you from death although they assume you would still be one very sick puppy. |
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mightymouse
Valued Member Joined: January 27 2006 Status: Offline Points: 487 |
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Hmmmmmm! Maybe Koolstever was right. Kill all the birds. The Chickadee Option. In any event I think a new 'executive order' is needed. "All birds grounded until further notice." But - I think that wouldn't fly with the world at large so a coalition would have to be formed at the UN - then referred to the Security Council - and then get veoted by China, Russia, France, and Germany - and by the time all this takes place - the BF is upon us. Once again - too llittle - too late - and Bush takes the heat. Rick - really appreciate all your postings. Seems we are entering an ever faster bubbling situation. I still wonder if eating 'well cooked' infected poultry would not transfer some immunity via transfer of antibodies? Maybe everyone should eat a sick chicken to stay well. Just a thought but nowhere have I yet found a difinitive answer to this question. Does not 'well cooked' beef transfer mad cow disease. Why not H5N1 via chicken? I realize one is protein based and the other viral - but transfer does take place. Could tainted chicken meat hold the key? - or at least one number to a combination. The cooks seem to die (it used to be they only got fat) but the diners seem to llive. Do they also now have some slight immunity to BF? Edited by mightymouse |
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Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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"Maybe Koolstever was right. Kill all the birds."
You will have to kill more than just birds, include, cats and a variety of other smaller mamals as well. "wonder if eating 'well cooked' infected poultry would not transfer some immunity via transfer of antibodies? " I don't think so. Someone else might offer an opinion, like the cook. Edited by Rick |
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jackson
Adviser Group Joined: January 26 2006 Status: Offline Points: 411 |
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MM,
I think that someone could probably answer this question alot better than I could, but here's my answer: Antibodies are proteins and are denatured (their structure is distorted) when they are exposed to high temperatures, like during cooking. Since they are distorted in shape, they can't offer the same protection that intact antibodies would (they can't bind to the antigen--bird flu virus, in this case--in the same way, and therefore wouldn't be able to assist the immune system in destruction of the virus ). Mad cow disease is a prion disease (an abnormally folded protein) and prions, unfortunately, are not easily destroyed by heat or other typical methods of disinfection. (Perhaps their abnormal configuration or structure is what makes them indestructable to heat but I don't know for sure.) Maybe someone can explain this in better detail and that would help further. Millie Edited by jackson |
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mightymouse
Valued Member Joined: January 27 2006 Status: Offline Points: 487 |
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Thankyou Rick and Millie, 'Another beautiful theory killed by a dirty, ugly little fact.' (can't remember who said that but I remember what they said)
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Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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elbows
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 339 |
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Bear in mind that the vaccine was never going to be a perfect option, even before this latest news.
For example the current seasonal influenza vaccines have a similar problem, they have to predict in advance what the dominant strains will be for the forthcoming season, and they get it wrong sometimes (eg this season the Influenza B in the vaccine isnt a great match for the most prevalent type of Influenza B thats infecting humans so far this winter). The most sensible thing to do is have vaccine of all the various types stockpiled, but this exascerbates the vaccine supply problems we face. We are still mostly using quite old technology to make vaccine, capacity is limited by factors such as how many chicken eggs you can get hold of. H5N1 probably makes this issue worse because of its potential to kill chickens, I have read that this can complicate sucessful vaccine production due to the aforementioned use of chicken eggs in the process. But I dont understand this enough to go into more detail. Anyway I read stuff ages ago about how they knew it may be hard to get the right strain into the vaccine, and so vaccine likely to be very limited for at least the first wave of the pandemic. Am I right to say the best guess for planning purposes right now is to go for the strain thats made it from the lake in China to Turkey & beyond? Edited by elbows |
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"Anyway I read stuff ages ago about how they knew it
may be hard to get the right strain into the vaccine, and so vaccine likely to be very limited for at least the first wave of the pandemic." ------ The last official count indicated four strains/polymorphisms, not counting the latest in Africa. A vaccine which takes about 6-months at best must be made for each strain, whatever the final tally amounts to. I don't know if that is four+ strains in the first wave, or if that changes in the second or the third. I understand the second wave is the toughest. I'm not sure how they would deal with the that in advance. You can only manufacture a vaccine after you know what you are targetting. Traditional vaccines are made by guessing a year in advance which of the top three influenza strains might develop. The other complication is, there might be a epidemic of swine flu in Uganada, not to mention the millions of HIV/AIDS patients. The Spanish Flu was also called, the "Swine Flu", that's were it got it's genetic kick-start, then it went to birds. Read Dr. Nimans posts on that. If H5N1 meets up with the Ugandan Swine Flu, it wil be like a reunion of sorts. You don't need much imagination to see that the virus's mutational roulette wheel is going to start spinning even faster. Sitting at the table are millions of immune system compromised Africans dying with AIDS. A regular buffet for the virus. I don't think they're worried about H5N1. In 1918, Africa was affected last. I guess this is payback time for them. "There were minor outbreaks around the world throughout 1918, but the real fun didn't start until winter, when the disease broke out in force in Europe, then spread over large segments of the population in America, Europe and Africa. Media censorship kept the story out of the headlines in most countries." Spain foolishly allowed its newspapers to report on the news and paid the price -- the pandemic would be known forever as "Spanish Flu." http://www.rotten.com/library/history/flu-pandemic/ I bought more N95 masks today. Edited by Rick |
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